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Baseball Betting Report
Baseball Betting Report
Baseball Betting: Report
Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.
Things continue to go south for A.L. East leading Toronto as Blue Birds were 1-5 (-$374) this past week joining Texas (1-5, -$375) and Houston (1-5, -$327) as the weeks worst bets. Things could get uglier for the 'Swat-Squad' as Yankees are in town and both Bautista (Hamstring), Lawrie (Hand) are on the shelf. Injuries aside, Tuesday Mark Buehrle takes the ball and has seen Jays lose all five of his starts vs New York since he joined the club last season. The hurler heads to the hill sporting a dreadful 1-16 team start skid vs Yankees wearing a Jay/Pale Hose uniform.
Oakland off a 5-2 (+$216) week remain tops in the AL at 47-29 (+$983). The A's head out on the road this week taking on Mets, Marlins in interleague action. The series in Miami will be interesting as Marlins have reeled off an 8-1 streak this season vs the Junior League including 5-0 at home.
Over in the Senior league the Milwaukee Brewers putting together a smart 6-1 (+$516) week behind 7.29 runs/game are tops in the NL at 47-30 (+$1548) with San Francisco (45-30, +$1303) falling into second with it's 2-3 week (+$114) and 3-9 (-$834) skid the past 12 games. The worst bets in the NL this past week, Colorado (0-6, -$604), Miami (2-5, -$379), Atlanta (2-5, -$413).
St Louis Cardinals an 'Under' bettors dream this past week posted a 0-5 O/U mark with Red Sox the next best 'Under' play at 1-5 O/U. Colorado pitching staff crushed for 8.0 RPG were 3-1-1 to the 'Over', Toronto surrendering an average 6.67 per/contest were 4-2 O/U
Players wagering on home favorite this past week did not fair well as home faves were 41-35 with betting accounts depleted to the tune of -$799. Breaking numbers down by individual team, Atlanta (0-3, -$489), Miami (1-5, -$484), Kansas (0-3, -$462) were fade material dressed as home faves.
Other noteworthy seasonal betting trends:
Best 'Over' Situation
Colorado 22-13-4 on the road
Milwaukee 25-14-3 away
Miami 23-15-5 at home
Best 'Under' Situation
Atlanta 9-1 off a 1 run loss (6-0 home)
Dodgers 7-0 away off 1 run loss
Dodgers 24-14-1 away
San Diego 24-14-2 at home
Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 15-9 (9-3 at home)
Oakland 15-9 (8-4 away)
White Sox 10-3 at home
Arizona 4-10 home
Boston 2-10 away
Best/Worst after One Run Loss
Colorado 8-2 (3-0 home)
Houston 3-10 (0-3 home)
Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-10), KC (2-6)
Best/Worst after being blanked
San Fran (4-0), Cinci (6-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Texas (0-3), Arizona (1-6), Mets (2-5)
Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
Miami (8-3) at home
Cleveland 2-12 on the road
Miami (8-1), San Fran (6-0 home)
Re: Baseball Betting Report
Major League Baseball's TOP 15 'Over' Pitchers for 2014
By Victor King
We're almost three full months into a profitable 2014 Major League Baseball season for King Creole. And it's time for the TOTALS TEAM to take a look at this season's TOP starting pitchers that have delivered 'OVER'-whelming results thus far.
Here is our review of the league's best 'OVER' starting pitchers. To make it to our list, these pitchers must have at least 10 starts under their belts. And these pitchers are ALL currently active in their respective 5-man starting rotations. In some cases, all it takes to make it on the list is a high ERA. But in some cases, these pitchers have had solid offensive run support behind them as well. Our next article will take a look at the better 'UNDER' pitchers in the league. But for now... let's look at the Top 'OVER' pitchers:
#1 / JUSTIN VERLANDER / Detroit Tigers / 11-3-2 O/U
2014 has been quite the difficult season for the 31-year old ace of the Detroit Tigers. Going into this year, his lifetime ERA in the bigs was a sparkling 3.46 (and in the AL to boot!). But those numbers have skyrocketed up to a whopping 4.73 in the 2014 season. The result? 79% of his starts have gone OVER the Total (11-3-2 O/U). Not only that. but since the beginning of May, he has not gone UNDER in ANY game (7-0-1 O/U last 8 starts). His OVER numbers have been just as consistent at home (5-2-1 O/U ) as they have on the road (6-1-1 O/U). His last start (7 innings pitched / 1 earned run vs Cleveland) stopped the bleeding a little. But as long as the Tigers keep averaging the 4.9 runs per game in offensive support behind him (YTD averages)... it looks like their may be even more OVERS in store in the 2nd half of the season. Average OU line in Verlander starts: 8.05.... Average combined runs: 10.05.
#2 / COLE HAMMELS / Philadelphia Phillies / 7-2-3 O/U
The lefty hurler from the Philadelphia Phillies is a unique case. His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and he comes off a year in which his ERA was 3.60. He's actually improved on those numbers in the 2014 season... with an ERA of only 2.76 after 12 starts. So what's the reason that 78% of his starts have gone OVER? Quite simply, RUN SUPPORT. The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the better OVER teams in all of Major League Baseball, with a combined average of 8.3 runs-per-game this year. The average OU line in Hammels' starts has been 6.8. And the average total runs in those games has been 7.6. The best time to play a Hammels OVER has been in his NIGHT starts... in which he has gone 6-1-1 O/U. But with a great ERA of under 3.00... we might see a market correction in the 2nd half of the 2014 season.
#3 / TYLER SKAGGS / Los Angeles Angels / 9-3 O/U
22-year old Tyler Skaggs was one of the pitchers that the Angels received in the off-season trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Mark Trumbo. His first full-season of big league ball has resulted in 12 starts... a 4.34 ERA (not bad in the American League)... and a 2.41 K to BB ratio (58 strikeouts / 24 walks). Just like in Hammels' case, Skaggs has been the beneficiary of a solid offense behind him... as the powerful Angels lineup is the #3 OVER team in the AL this season. They have averaged 5 runs-per-game in Skaggs' 12 starts. You don't want to go OVER in Skaggs' road starts, as his ERA for the year is only 3.07. But he's been an automatic OVER play at home... with an ERA of 5.80 and a perfect 6-0 O/U record. *Currently on the disabled list (as of June 6th).
#4 / JAMES SHIELDS / Kansas City Royals / 11-4-1 O/U
The ace of the surprising Kansas City Royals (39-36 / 2nd place in AL Central) has gone OVER in 73% of his 2014 starts. 32-year old James Shields has regressed slightly after his brilliant 2013 season in which he went 13-9 with an ERA of 3.15. His 2014 numbers are about a half a run-per-game higher with an ERA of 3.70. Considering he gave up only 20 HR's in 228 innings (and 34 starts) last year, his 2014 numbers are a little alarming when it come to the Gopher ball. After 16 starts, he's given up 14 home runs. That averages out to about 31 total home runs this season if his averages continue at the same rate. It would be his highest year since the 2010 season when he gave up 34 'dingers' in 203 innings. The best time to consider a Shields' OVER would be when he is on the road (8-1-1 O/U this year) rather than at home (3-3 O/U this year).
#5 / JUAN NICASIO / Colorado Rockies / 10-4 O/U
Nicasio's pitching stats have gone through the roof in the 2014 season, as he has an ERA of 5.92 after 14 starts... and as a result, 71% of those starts have gone OVER the Total. It's not like those numbers are surprising either. After all, his career ERA coming into this season was 5.14. But he's regressed by almost a FULL run-per-game. And his lock on a starting spot in the Rockies rotation could be in jeopardy in the second half of the year. He's allowed an alarming 15 home runs in just 73 innings of work. So far this year, he's gone a perfect 7-0 O/U when installed as a favorite... compared to 3-4 O/U as an underdog. And he's been the NL equivalent of Tyler Skaggs. ALWAYS play him OVER at home (8-0 O/U this season!)... and lay off of him on the road (2-4 O/U).
#6 / MARCO ESTRADA / Milwaukee Brewers / 10-4-1 O/U
With a powerful offense behind him (Brewers are #3 OVER team in the NL), it's no surprise that Estrada's starts have gone OVER at a 71% clip so far in the 2014 season. The 30-year old from Sonora, Mexico comes in off two outstanding seasons in a row in which his ERA was 3.64 and 3.87 respectively. But that's not the case in 2014. After 15 starts, his ERA is a full 1.5 runs-per-game HIGHER at 5.22. And it's been 'ALL about the Gopher Ball'. Estrada has allowed the MOST home runs of any hurler in either league (24 in only 87 innings). Since the middle of May, he's gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in his last six starts... and the average combined runs-per-game has been an explosive 14.6 RPG! His last start vs the Rockies resulted in a final score of 13-10. Don't play him in daytime starts (1-3 O/U). But he's an automatic OVER in his night starts (9-1-1 O/U).
#7 / EDWIN JACKSON / Chicago Cubs / 9-4-2 O/U
Edwin Jackson's ERA numbers have gone up in EACH of the last four seasons. From 3.58 in 2011... to 4.03 in 2012... to 4.98 in 2013... to his current number of 5.12 in the 2014 season. 69% of his starts have gone OVER the Total so far this year. After starting the season with a pedestrian record of 5-4-2 in his first 11 starts... Jackson comes in with a perfect 4-0 O/U record in his last four games dating back to early June (and an ERA of 6.09). He has not made it past the 6th inning since the middle of May. His best spots for an OVER result have been in road games (5-1-2 O/U versus 4-3 O/U in his home starts)... and in night games (5-1-1 O/U versus 4-3-1 O/U in day starts).
#8 / ERVIN SANTANA / Atlanta Braves / 9-4-1 O/U
The right-handed hurler from the Dominican Republic entered the National League in 2014 after a 9-year career in the American League. His last season in the AL (for the Royals last year) was actually the best one of his career, as he had an ERA of 3.24. In his first year in the 'Senior Circuit', Santana has posted an ERA of 4.15 for the Braves. He started this season going 8-1-1 O/U in his first 10 starts. But the doors have been shut as of late for an automatic Santana OVER... as he has gone 1-3 O/U in his last four overall starts. It looks like a 2nd-half regression could be in the cards for him. But if you're still looking for his best OVER possibilities, it would be in his road starts (6-2 O/U this season)... and as a favorite (8-3-1 O/U this season).
#9 / STEPHEN STRASBURG / Washington National / 11-5 O/U
Our King Creole handicapping service has jumped on a couple of Strasburg OVERS as of late... and we've been rewarded with a 2-0 record in those games. The 25-year old phenom is once again enjoying a great 2014 season... with an ERA of only 3.24 and an 'unglaublich' K/BB ratio of 6.05 to 1 (121 K's and only 20 walks). His splits are a home ERA of only 2.51... and a road ERA of 4.22. But in actual results, his home games have gone 7-2 O/U and his roadies have gone 4-3 O/U. Reasons for the disparity? His National teammates score a ton of runs behind him in his home starts (5.8 RPG)... and not a lot of runs in his road starts (4.1 RPG). Against fellow National League East Division opponents, Strasburg has gone a perfect 7-0 O/U this season... but only 4-5 O/U versus any other team.
#10 / JERED WEAVER / Los Angeles Angels / 10-5-1 O/U
For the ace of the LA Angels staff, we have another case in which the 'window of OVERS' might be closing. The 31-year old started the 2014 season with by going a perfect 6-0 O/U in his first six starts. His Angel teammates averaged 6.0 offensive RPG behind him in those first six starts. But since then, the Angels have averaged only 3.9 offensive RPG in his last 10 starts. His ERA in 2014 (3.47) is slightly higher than his career ERA (3.27). He's also given up 14 home runs so far in 16 starts. If those averages continue for the remainder of the season, it would be the most home runs that he has ever given up in a year (previous high was 26 'dingers' in 2009). When he's at home, it would be prudent to lay off a Weaver OVER (4-4-1 O/U this year). But in his road starts this season, he's gone an almost perfect 6-1 O/U.
#11 / KYLE LOHSE / Milwaukee Brewers / 10-5-1 O/U
Surprise, Surprise... another solid Milwaukee Brewer OVER pitcher! If you look at 35-year old Lohse's stats, it's actually quite interesting that he has gone OVER the Total at a 67% rate so far in the 2014 season. After all, he comes in with a great 3.20 ERA on the year... with 75 K's and 20 BB's... and TWELVE Quality Starts (6+ innings / 3 or less earned runs). But just like Marco Estrada, his Brewer teammates tend to score a lot of runs whenever Lohse takes the 'pill to the hill'. In his 16 starts, Milwaukee has averaged 5.5 runs-per-game on offense. In fact, dating back to late May... the Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in EVERY one of Lohse's seven starts (6,3 RPG). This is another situation in which a 2nd half regression is likely in the cards. His best OVERE numbers have been in road games (7-2-1 O/U compared to 3-3 O/U at home).
#12 / JAKE ODORIZZI / Tampa Bay Rays / 10-5 O/U
From a Totals standpoint... Odorizzi of the Rays has had the most confusing and unexplainable (on the surface) season of any of the Top OVER pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. His ERA at home on the year is a fantastic 2.70... yet he's gone 7-2 O/U in those games. His ERA on the road this year is an extremely high 7.16... yet he's only gone 3-3 O/U in those games. When in doubt... it MUST add up to offensive run support. And that's indeed the case for the 24-year old from Breese, Illinois. In his first full-time season, Odorozzi has gone 3-7 with an ERA of 4.29. In his home games, his Tampa teammates have averaged 4.8 runs-per-game. And in his road games, the dysfunctional Tampa offense has averaged ONLY 2.0 runs-per-game. Despite a great ERA of 2.52 in his last four overall starts.. he has still gone 3-1 O/U.
#13 / HOMER BAILEY / Cincinnati Reds / 10-5 O/U
The ship may have sailed for Home Bailey automatic OVERS, as he has actually gone 2-3 O/U in his last five starts since the end of May. But a review of his year-to-date stats is definitely warranted. The native of La Grange, Texas was the 7th overall pick of the 2004 draft. And he comes off his best two seasons of his career (3.68 in 2012 and 3.49 in 2013). But 2014 has been a different season. Bailey has a YTD ERA of 4.68 so far. He's allowed 12 home runs in 90 innings. That averages out to about 28 for the entire year, which would be the highest numbers in his career. His best OVER situations this season: 7-1 O/U in division play (3-4 'out' of the division)... and 8-2 O/U in night games (2-3 O/U in day games).
#14 / TOMMY MILONE / Oakland Athletics / 8-4-2 O/U
This situation for the 27-year old pitcher on the Oakland A's is pretty explainable. After all, the Athletics' offensive average of 5.1 runs-per-game at home this season is the highest of any team in the American League. What IS a surprise is that this stadium has notoriously been a great UNDER venue over the years. Milone has had the same home / away statistical 'splits' as Odorizzi of the Rays (mentioned above). His home ERA is a great 3.11. But SIX of his seven home starts have gone OVER the Total (6-1 O/U). Meanwhile, his road ERA is a full run-and-a-half HIGHER (at 4.72)... but he's gone only 2-3-2 O/U in those 7 road starts. Obviously, when we see an unexplainable dynamic that applies to both Milone and Odorizzi, we can fully expect to see a regression 'back to the mean' in the second half of the 2014 season. The OVER bandwagon for both pitchers is coming to a close...
#15 / NATHAN EOVALDI / Miami Marlins / 8-4-3 O/U
Eovaldi pitched only 106 innings last season for the struggling Miami Marlins. But he was a bright spot with an ERA of only 3.39 and 7 home runs allowed. Those numbers have gone up slightly in 2014, as his ERA stands at 3.76 after 15 starts. One of the contributing factors to his high OVER numbers (67%) is the fact that he already allowed 8 'dingers' this year... in only 93 innings (red flag). The other factor is that Miami is Major League Baseball's #1 OVER team this season. That includes 42-27-6 overall... and 23-15-2 O/U when playing the role of host. The best situation to play an Eovaldi OVER has been in his nighttime starts, where he has gone a perfect 7-0-2 O/U. But lay off him in his daytime starts (1-4-1 O/U).
(not enough starts / currently on DL / no longer in rotation / in minors)
Brandon Morrow / Toronto Blue Jays: 6-0 O/U
Tyler Chatwood / Colorado Rockies: 4-0 O/U
Anthony Desclafani / Miami Marlins: 4-0 O/U
Matt Shoemaker / Los Angeles Angels: 5-1 O/U
Mike Pelfrey / Minnesota Twins: 4-1 O/U
Erik Johnson / Chicago White Sox: 4-1 O/U
Scott Carroll / Chicago White Sox: 4-1 O/U
Jose Fernandez / Miami Marlins: 6-2 O/U
Dustin McGowan / Toronto Blue Jays: 6-2 O/U
Trevor Cahill / Arizona Diamondbacks: 3-1 O/U
Carlos Carrasco / Cleveland Indians: 3-1 O/U
Felipe Paulino / Chicago White Sox: 3-1 O/U
Tanner Scheppers / Texas Rangers: 3-1 O/U
Blake Treinen / Washington Nationals: 3-1 O/U
Carlos Villanueva / Chicago Cubs: 3-1 O/U
Re: Baseball Betting Report
Major League Baseball's TOP 13 'Under' Pitchers for 2014
By Victor King
We're almost three full months into a profitable 2014 Major League Baseball season for King Creole. And it's time for the TOTALS TEAM to take a look at this season's TOP starting pitchers... and their OU tendencies. On Monday, we covered the Top 15 'OVER' pitchers. Today, we'll take a look at the hurlers who have delivered consistent and profitable 'UNDER' results so far in the 2014 season. To make it on our list, these pitchers must have at least 10 starts under their belts. And these pitchers are ALL currently active in their respective 5-man starting rotations.
#1 / CHRIS YOUNG / Seattle Mariners / 3-10-1 O/U
The 35-year old veteran pitcher from Dallas, Texas has been pitching in the National League the past seven seasons. His return to the American League has resulted in a great 2014 season... and he stands as the clear-cut UNDER 'King' of Major League Baseball with a 3-10-1 O/U record and an ERA of only 3.23. He has not gone OVER the Total in a game since the middle of May! Since then, he's gone a perfect 0-7 O/U in his last 7 starts. He's been virtually untouchable in his 'Pitchers Park' home games... going a perfect 0-6-1 O/U this season with an ERA of 2.23. He's an automatic UNDER pitcher in these games. But sharp Totals Players would be prudent to lay off him when he's on the road (3-4 O/U / 4.50 ERA). We're gonna definitely see a handful of pitchers on this list that have the misfortune of being on teams with bad offenses.
#2 / JAKE PEAVY / Boston Red Sox / 4-12 O/U
With 12+ Major League seasons under his belt, Peavy's 2014 numbers of a 1-6 record and 4.93 is nothing to write home about. Especially alarming is the fact that he's already given up 16 home runs this year in 98 innings pitched. So what's the reasons for his UNDER-whelming 2014 season? First off, his offensively-challenged Boston Red Sox team is 29-46-3 O/U this year. The #2 UNDER team in all of Baseball right behind the San Diego Padres. Boston has averaged only 3.1 offensive runs per game in Peavy's 16 starts. At home this year, Peavy has gone a nearly-perfect 1-7 O/U. He's in the same situation as Chris Young. We'll look for him to continue his UNDER success at home... but we'll lay off him when he takes to the road (especially with an ERA of 6.00 when playing the role of visitor).
#3 / ANDREW CASHNER / San Diego Padres / 3-9 O/U
With an offense that's as dysfunctional as ANY in Major League Baseball, we knew it wouldn't take long for a San Diego Padres hurler to make it to the top of the UNDER list. When you factor in a dominant stat line in 2014, then it's full speed ahead for Andrew Cashner UNDERS. San Diego is (obviously) the #1 team in MLB when it comes to low-scoring games (25-49-4 O/U). Their average of only 3.1 offensive RPG is a full half run lower than ANY other team in all of Baseball (next lowest scoring team is Atlanta, as 3.6 RPG). So we already know that expecting consistent run support would be fruitless. After a great 2013 season in which he had an ERA of 3.09, Cashner has come into his own this season. His current ERA of 2.36 is 4th best of all full-time starters in the National League (behind Cueto, Wainwright, and Beckett).
#4 / TYSON ROSS / San Diego Padres / 4-11-1 O/U
No surprise here. Another San Diego starting pitcher. You can take most of what you see in the previous paragraph... and apply it here as well. Last year was Ross' first in the National League, and he finished with a sparking ERA of 3.17. During this 2014 season, Ross has picked up right where he left off. The 27-year old from Berkeley, California has a YTD ERA of 3.22 and has gone UNDER in 75% of his starts. He's done even better at home (no surprise there as well), with a 1-6-1 O/U record... and an ERA of 2.36. He's gone a perfect 0-8-1 O/U when tabbed as a favorite this season, and has gone UNDER in each of his last five starts.
#5 / ALFREDO SIMON / Cincinnati Reds / 4-11 O/U
Simon was signed as an amateur free agent back in 1999. His first four seasons were all in the AL with the Baltimore Orioles. And he was pretty bad back then (ERA of 5.17). But since heading to the National League, he's been a dominant pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. His ERA in 2012 was 2.66 and in 2013 it was 2.87. But that was as a reliever. This season, he made the jump to the Reds' starting rotation and hasn't looked back. In 15 starts, he's tied with Adam Wainwright for the MOST wins in the NL (10)... and has an ERA of 2.92 to boot. He started this season with Unders in EACH of his first six starts (0-6 O/U). Since then, he's come back down to earth slightly (4-5 O/U). He's had solid UNDER success at home (2-4 O/U)... and on the road (2-7 O/U). His best work has been in his eight daytime starts (1-7 O/U).
#6 / JULIO TEHERAN / Atlanta Braves / 4-11-1 O/U
The 23-year old from Cartagena, Columbia is only in his 2nd full-time season as a starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. Last year, he made 30 starts... had a slick K/BB ratio of 3.8 to 1 (170 strikeouts / only 45 walks)... and an ERA of 3.20. Teheran has improved on those numbers so far this season, with a K/BB ratio of 4.1 to 1... and an ERA of only 2.41. As a result, he's gone UNDER in 73% of his starts. It also hasn't hurt his low-scoring numbers that he's saddled with the 2nd worst offense in all of Major League Baseball (Braves average only 3.6 offensive RPG). No run support here! Since April, his Atlanta teammates have backed him with only 2.8 runs per game. He's been an extremely consistent UNDER pitcher regardless of the situation. 2-6 O/U at home... 2-5-1 O/U on the road. With a K/BB ratio of 48 to 7 in his last seven starts... this is one pitcher in which we will never go OVER the Total with this season.
#7 / J.A. HAPP / Toronto Blue Jays / 3-7 O/U
This southpaw hurler had a solid 4-year start to his career with the Philadelphia Phillies from 2007 to 2010. But he regressed after being traded to the Houston Astros in the multiplayer deal for Roy Oswalt. He was then was acquired from Toronto in the massive 10-player trade with the Houston back in 2012. Since arriving in the American League, he's had an ERA of 4.60. It hasn't been much better this season. Injuries to the Blue Jays starting rotation thrust Happ into the picture back in early May. Since then, he's gone 6-4 with an ERA of 4.92. And he;s gone UNDER in 70% of his starts. He's coming in off his worst outing of the year, as he allowed 8 runs in 4 innings in a 11-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. A few more shaky outings like that, and it might be back to the minor leagues for Happ. We'll keep looking to go UNDER when he's at home, where he has gone 0-5 O/U so far this season
#8 / HISASHI IWAKUMA / Seattle Mariners / 3-7 O/U
Iwakuma has had a similar start to the 2014 season as Happ. Injuries to the Seattle rotation opened up a starting slot for Iwakuma in early May. But unlike Happ, the 33-year old from Japan has looked dominant at times for the Mariners. In fact, his 3-year career has been outstanding. He had an ERA of 3.16 in 2012 and an ERA of 2.66 last year. So far in 2014, he's gone UNDER in 70% of his starts with an ERA of 3.04. When it comes to strikeout-to-walk ratios, it doesn't get much better than Iwakuma. Through 10 starts, he has 52 K's and only 7 walks. That's 7.4 'punchouts' for every 'free pass'! And sharp UNDER Totals Players know that the less walks a pitcher has, the less likely that they'll get burned by a multi-run inning. Despite going 2-4 at home this season, FIVE of those six Iwakuma starts DID go Under the Total. That's where we will continue to ride him.
#9 / IAN KENNEDY / San Diego Padres / 5-11 O/U
By now, you know the story. It would probably be smart (and profitable) to play EVERY SINGLE San Diego Padres game Under the Total for the remainder of the season. Heck, if you played $200 on every Padre game UNDER thus far, you'd be up +$4300.00! So everything we mentioned earlier in regards to Cashner and Ross also applies to Ian Kennedy.... EXCEPT one. While Cashner and Ross did all their heavy lifting in regards to Under results at HOME this season, the opposite is true for the 29-year old from Huntington Beach, California. Kennedy has gone 5-4 O/U in his home starts (with an ERA of 4.19). But he's gone a perfect 0-7 O/U in his seven ROAD starts this season, with an ERA of 3.53. He's also gone 1-7 O/U in his daytime starts... as opposed to 4-4 O/U at night.
#10 / BUD NORRIS / Baltimore Orioles / 5-9 O/U
After five seasons in the National League, Bud Norris was traded from Houston to the Baltimore Orioles in 2013 (for outfielder LJ Hoes). His first season in the American League resulted in a 4.80 ERA in nine starts. Norris has improved those numbers dramatically in 2014, with an ERA (3.62) that more than a full run less than last year. In his road starts, he hasn't been very special (4.82 ERA). But he has embraced his new surroundings, going 5-1 at HOME this year with a brilliant ERA of only 2.12. And FIVE of those six home starts have gone Under the Total. The other aspects that have helped him to go UNDER 64% of the time are the OU tendencies of his current team. The Orioles are currently the BEST home 'Under' team in all of Major League Baseball... with a record of 11-23-1 O/U (only 7.1 runs per game).
#11 / GARRETT RICHARDS / Los Angeles Angels / 5-9-1 O/U
Hometown boy makes good. Richards was selected by the LA Angels in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. His first two seasons in Anaheim were nothing to write home about (5.79 and 4.69 ERA in 2011 and 2012 respectively). He showed some progress last season in 17 starts with an improved ERA of 4.16. And he's made a BIG improvement so far in 2014. Richards has gone 11-4 in his 15 team starts with an ERA of only 2.79. He's been a better pitcher on the road (1.84 ERA / 3-6 O/U) than a home (4.05 ERA / 2-3-1 O/U). That's not surprising given the fact that the Angels are the #3 OVER team at home this year (21-14-3 O/U). Richards has been especially sharp as of late. He's allowed one or less earned runs in EACH of his last four starts (ERA of 0.67!). So right NOW is the best time to keep 'Going LOW'.
#12 / ERIC STULTS / San Diego Padres / 5-9-2 O/U
Enough said! I think we ALL finally 'get it' when it comes to San Diego Padre starting pitchers. Go LOW... or lay off. Even a guy with a year-to-date ERA of 5.49 is a good Under candidate when he's pitching for this dysfunctional offensive team.
#13 / YORDANO VENTURA / Kansas City Royals / 5-9 O/U
As good as advertised. That would be ROOKIE starting pitcher Yordano Ventura of the Royals. He dominated in spring training, and as a result... I drafted him in my American League-only fantasy baseball league. And I'm as pleased in his first year's results as the Royals are. He's gone UNDER the Total in 65% of his starts with a great ERA of 3.20. The 23-year old from the Dominican Republic was signed by Kansas City as an amateur free agent in 2008. He's had 10 Quality Starts (6+ innings and 3 or less earned runs) out of 14 so far in 2014. He's allowed 3 or less earned runs 11 times already. Quite frankly, he's the real deal. The only trepidation I have for second-half UNDER success will be how he performs in the 2nd go-round against the teams that he has already faced this season.