MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 20
MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 20
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
San Francisco at Arizona
The opening matchup of a three game series between San Francisco and Arizona is Friday's baseball betting focus. The NL West leading Giants hitting a rough patch dropping 8 of it's last 9 on the diamond look to Tim Lincecum in the opener. The right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA but comes in a little shaky having gone 1-1 the past three with a whopping 7.16 ERA (3-0 O/U). Digging deeper to get a better take on past series performance our MLB Database tells us Giants have lost 7-of-10 vs Arizona w/Lincecum with 'Over' dominating in 7 of the 10 contests. Meanwhile, NL West basement dwelling D-Backs on a 2-7 slide counter with Josh Collmenter bringing a 4-4 record, 4.05 ERA to the mound. Like his counterpart, Collmenter has struggled the past three posting an 0-2 mark with a 6.50 ERA (2-1 O/U). Well to note, D-Backs have won 3-of-4 against Giants w/Collmenter (3-1 O/U) including 2-0 hooked up against Lincecum. Two hurler not in the greatest of form makes 'Over' a good play. 'Over' has hit in 6-of-7 encounters, Giants have played 'Over' in 10 of 11, D-Backs have played 'Over' in 6 of 8. Another positive for 'Over' gamblers has been when D-Backs hand the ball to Collmenter at home vs a winning team (4-1-1 O/U) and when Giants face a losing team on the road w/Lincecum (13-2-2 O/U).
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 20
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Braves at Nationals
ATL: Minor (2-4, 4.42 ERA)
WSH: Strasburg (6-5, 3.06 ERA)
Series recap: The Braves continued their domination of the Nationals this season with a 3-0 shutout on Thursday as +130 underdogs. Atlanta improved to 7-1 against Washington in 2014, including a 4-0 mark at Nationals Park. In the four victories in D.C., Braves’ pitching has limited the Nats to just five runs.
What to watch for: Atlanta has won consecutive games just once since June 1, posting a 1-5 record the last six games off a victory. The Nationals are 6-1 in Strasburg’s past seven home starts, but Washington has lost each of the right-hander’s last three home outings against Atlanta since 2013.
Orioles at Yankees
BAL: Jimenez (2-8, 4.86 ERA)
NYY: Kuroda (4-5, 4.32 ERA)
Previous series recap: The Orioles are coming off their third straight series against a division foe, taking two of three at Tampa Bay. Baltimore is currently 6-4 in this stretch within the AL East, which includes a 2-0 triumph at Tropicana Field on Wednesday as +130 underdogs. The Yankees are getting back on track after sweeping the Blue Jays at home, while scoring 13 runs in the final two victories.
What to watch for: New York has dropped each of Kuroda’s last three starts, while the offense has plated just five runs in those defeats. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Yankees have won four of Kuroda’s five home starts against the O’s, including a 4-2 triumph in April. Jimenez continues to struggle, as the Orioles own a 1-6 record in his past seven trips to the mound, while Baltimore is 9-2 to the ‘under’ in the past 11 games overall.
Tigers at Indians
DET: Porcello (8-4, 4.03 ERA)
CLE: Kluber (6-4, 3.35 ERA)
Previous series recap: The Tigers avoided a sweep by edging the red-hot Royals on Thursday, 2-1, as Detroit has fallen into second place in the AL Central. Detroit finished off a seven-game homestand at 3-4, while losing 2.75 units. The Indians grabbed two of three from the Angels, capped off by a walk-off grand slam on Thursday in the 10th inning, 5-3.
What to watch for: Cleveland is riding an 11-1 stretch at Progressive Field, which began with a three-game sweep of Detroit last month. The Tribe has won six of their past eight home series openers, while losing just one series since the end of May. The Tigers have put together a 5-1 record in Porcello’s last six road starts, including a 4-0 mark as an underdog. Since winning six straight on the road in May, Detroit has stumbled to a 4-9 record the past 13 games on the highway.
Blue Jays at Reds
TOR: Hendriks (1-0, 2.31 ERA)
CIN: Latos (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Previous series recap: The Jays continue to struggle after getting swept by the Yankees, while losing seven of their past nine games. Following five ‘unders’ to begin this road trip, Toronto has hit the ‘over’ in each of the last two games at New York. The Reds took care of their second straight road series, grabbing two of three at Pittsburgh, but fell short in 12 innings on Thursday, 4-3.
What to watch for: Cincinnati has won six of its past eight games to get within a game of the .500 mark, but is just 5-7 in the last 12 home contests. Following an 11-1 run on the road, the Jays have stumbled to a 2-5 mark the past seven away contests. After losing the first two interleague contests at Pittsburgh, the Jays have compiled a 6-2 record in the last eight interleague matchups.
Mariners at Royals
SEA: Iwakuma (5-3, 2.59 ERA)
KC: Shields (8-3, 3.50 ERA)
Previous series recap: The Mariners split a four-game interleague series with the light-hitting Padres, while scoring just two runs in the final two losses at San Diego. The Royals saw their 10-game winning streak snapped at Detroit on Thursday, but Kansas City still stole three of four at Comerica Park, which included a pair of wins in the first two games scoring 11 runs each.
What to watch for: Kansas City and Seattle split a four-game set at Safeco Field last month, as Iwakuma tossed a 1-0 shutout in the series opener. Since getting swept by the Astros in May, the Royals are 5-2 in their last seven home contests. In Shields’ last eight starts, the Royals own a perfect 8-0 record, while the ‘over’ has cashed six times.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 20
MLB Weekend Betting Cheat Sheet
Under bettors were handsomely rewarded Thursday with the most emphatic result of the season, as teams combined to go 1-11 O/U. Only one team scored more than five runs - the New York Yankees (-102, O 9), who fended off Toronto 6-4 in the lone over result of the day.
Atlanta Braves lefthander Mike Minor enters Friday's game against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals at +157 - his longest odds since June 18, 2012. Minor is 0-3 against the moneyline in three career starts as an underdog of +150 or greater.
McCarthy Era a Bad One
Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy will look to reverse a horrible trend Saturday as he and the Diamondbacks welcome the San Francisco Giants. McCarthy enters the weekend ranked last in the majors in value ($-1,252), with Arizona going a woeful 2-13 in his starts so far this season.
Tanaka Means Quality
New York Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has an impressive streak going as he prepares to face the visiting Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Tanaka has opened his career with 14 consecutive quality starts, racking up five double-digit strikeout efforts over that span.
Kansas City ace James Shields hopes his teammates will continue providing plenty of run support Friday against visiting Seattle (+108, 7). Kansas City has scored six or more runs in eight of his last 11 starts, guiding him to a 10-1 mark against the moneyline and a 9-2 O/U record over that span.
Chicago White Sox righty Andre Rienzo was once the highest-value starter in baseball, but will be looking to halt a personal four-game losing skid Saturday against host Minnesota. Rienzo has been an underdog in all 10 of his starts to date, and is 6-4 against the moneyline in those games.
Detroit Tigers fireballer Max Scherzer will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season Sunday as he squares off against host Cleveland. Scherzer, who surrendered 10 runs over 4 1/3 innings last time out, is 8-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Indians.
Cleveland outfielder Nick Swisher hit a game-winning grand slam Thursday, halting a 2-for-24 slump during which he struck out 10 times. The Indians are 4-1 SU and 3-2 O/U in games in which Swisher goes deep entering Friday's tilt with the Tigers (+115, 8.5).
Don't expect a home run barrage with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright on the mound against Philadelphia Saturday. Members of the Phillies roster have combined for zero home runs in 131 career at-bats against Wainwright, striking out 32 times in the process.
Sunday will feature a marquee pitcher-batter matchup as Texas ace Yu Darvish faces Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels. Trout has gotten the better of Darvish to date, batting .290 with four home runs in 31 career at-bats.
San Diego Padres (0-5-1 O/U): Sound familiar? The Padres continue to confound oddsmakers, racking up six consecutive games in which they either scored or allowed one or fewer runs. San Diego is far and away the strongest Under bet in the league to date at 23-46-4 O/U.
Prop of the Day
Bettors may want to consider taking the Houston Astros to score first against Tampa Bay, a prop that pays -110. The Rays are the worst first-inning team in baseball, scoring just 22 times while batting a paltry .194.
Atlanta Braves hurler Gavin Floyd suffered a fractured elbow Thursday night and is out indefinitely. Floyd was solid in nine starts in his first season with the Braves, going 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts; the Braves were 5-4 SU and 3-6 O/U in those contests.
Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz (knee) is expected to rejoin the major-league rotation sometime next week. Buchholz is 2-4 with a 7.03 ERA in 10 starts with the Red Sox, who are 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 O/U in those outings.
Seattle Mariners DH Corey Hart (hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment this weekend. Hart has been out since mid-May, with the Mariners going 16-14 SU, 8-20-2 O/U and earning 290 units in his absence.
Wind at Wrigley Field will blow in from center field at 8 mph for Friday afternoon's tilt between the host Cubs (+115) and Pittsburgh Pirates. Teams combined to score 7.7 runs with two homers in 10 games under similar conditions in 2013, down slightly from the stadium averages.
Fans at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday afternoon will be greeted by wind blowing out to left field at 8 mph. Only one Royals home game last season featured wind blowing out to left - and it resulted in a 1-0 Kansas City victory.
Busch Stadium is expected to see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for Sunday's game between host St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Cardinals went 7-2 SU while averaging 6.22 runs in nine games under similar conditions a season ago.
Umpire Note of the Day
Over is 16-5 in umpire Adrian Johnson's last 21 games calling balls and strikes. Johnson will be behind home plate for Friday's game between the Cardinals (-160, 7.5) and Phillies.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 20
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- It’s a rare scene when baseball’s perennial heavyweights, the New York Yankees, find themselves flying under the radar, but that’s exactly what’s going on in the Bronx. At least that was the case before they completed a three-game sweep of the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday – marking the Jays’ 16th straight loss at Yankee Stadium.
Since opening June with four-straight losses, the Yankees have won nine of 13 to slide past Baltimore into second-place in the division, and are now only 1.5 games behind Toronto. The Jays’ problems began before the Yankees series, and they have now lost nine of their past 12.
Baltimore has been up and down, and who knows when – or if – Boston will wake up from their World Series hangover. So the Yankees appear to have as good a chance as anyone to win the division, maybe better. They are currently listed at 20-to-1 odds by the LVH SuperBook to win their 28th World Series trophy.
Can you imagine what a story it would be to have Derek Jeter’s farewell tour extend into the playoffs? Or better yet, sending him off into the sunset with his sixth ring?
Jeter has been a major part of the Yanks’ recent surge, hitting .405 as they've gone 7-2 over their last nine games. Brett Gardner, right in front of Jeter in the lineup, has hit .361 during the nine-game stretch with a team-leading three home runs in June, and both have been setting the table for a Yankees lineup that is finally in tact.
Jacoby Ellsbury has been everything as advertised for the Yankees since they brought him over from Boston during the offseason; he hits for power, steals bases (20) and plays a great centerfield. Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira are back in the lineup, and this new version of the Yankees is looking very exciting.
The big question for the Yankees is whether their starting pitching can hold up for the next three months. If healthy, the offense looks like it will be there, but pitching is another story, or at least four of the five days in the rotation.
Every fifth day, it’s almost a guarantee that Masahiro Tanaka (11-1, 1.99 ERA) is going to win. He’s vaulted up the ratings chart, now considered one of the elite pitchers in baseball, right up there with Clayton Kershaw. Those insane numbers from the 2013 season in Japan (24-0, 1.27) were no joke, and he’s been almost as dominant on this side of the Pacific – the Yankees have won 12 of his 14 starts (+8.8 unit profit).
If the Yankees make the postseason and Tanaka continues his quality performances, he’s not only looking at Rookie of the Year honors and a Cy Young, he’s also looking at an MVP award.
The Yankees rotation was supposed to be one of their strengths coming into the season with C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda, and Tanaka coming in as the third starter. But injuries changed that plan quickly, and they’ve struggled to find the right mix while getting some of the younger pitchers acclimated to the big leagues.
One of the young pitchers who has surprised has been 25-year-old rookie right-hander Chase Whitley (3-0, 2.56). He's given up two runs or less in six of his seven starts. The Yankees are 6-1 behind him, and he’s currently on a roll of winning his past three starts. For bettors, his +5.5 units of profit on the season is 12th best among all starters.
So now the Yankees appear to have a great shot of winning at least two out of every five days. An 18-3 record behind two starters is amazing stuff!
In order to really crash the AL East party at the top, though, the Yankees need Kuroda (4-5, 4.32) to take his game up a notch. They have lost his past three starts, but to be fair to him, the lineup scored only four runs combined in the three losses. He has actually pitched fairly well, allowing three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. And with the way the top of the lineup is getting on base, he figures to get more support than he has recently.
Kuroda gets a chance to extend the Yankees’ three-game winning streak tonight against those pesky Orioles, who just seem to keep hovering around striking distance in the division. Kuroda is a -129 favorite over Ubaldo Jimenez (2-8, 4.86), who is 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA in his last seven starts. This isn’t what Baltimore had bargained for when they paid him $50 million before the season. Baltimore could be 3-11 behind any pitcher for the league minimum salary.
Jimenez has been draining bettors’ pockets all season (-7.6 units), and things don’t look to get any better tonight. Kuroda and Jimenez hooked up against each other in the Bronx on April 7, where Kuroda was posted at a higher price, -135, than he is tonight. The Yankees won, 4-2, with Jimenez giving up all four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. In Jimenez’s last four starts against the Yankees, he’s 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA.
Look for the Yankees to win tonight and keep their roll going, and while at the bet window, you may want to inquire about the Yankees’ future odds, too. They could be a trade for a starter away from becoming a division-winning club. And once in the playoffs, with all the Jeter hype, the Yankees will have their battle cry and plenty of motivation to send the Captain out a champ. It might sound like a fairly tale, but Jeter’s career has been filled with magical moments, and an ending like that would be appropriate.
Yankees (Kuroda) -129 vs. Orioles
Pirates (Morton) -123 at Cubs
Brewers/Rockies OVER 10.5 (-110)