Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 20

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 20

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

NY Mets at Miami
The Mets look to follow up last night's 1-0 win over the Marlins and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in Daisuke Matsuzaka's last 8 starts. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.597; Cubs (Jackson) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.862; Washington (Strasburg) 15.995
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+155); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 15.266; Miami (Alvarez) 13.998
Dunkel Line: MY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.920; St. Louis (Garcia) 17.121
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 17.070; Colorado (Bergman) 14.445
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.470; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.732
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.688; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.107
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 16.951; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.749
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.068; Cleveland (Kluber) 17.787
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under

Game 969-970: Houston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 12.737; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.715
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.803; Kansas City (Shields) 17.257
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 16.160; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.577
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 975-976: Boston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 16.951; Oakland (Mills) 15.587
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 17.178; LA Angels (Richards) 16.246
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); Over

Game 979-980: Toronto at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hendriks) 16.737; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.285
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Washington at Minnesota
The Lynx look to bounce back from their 92-79 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Minnesota is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8 1/2).

Game 601-602: New York at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 105.143; Atlanta 118.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Washington at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.060; Minnesota 119.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Indiana at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 106.622; Chicago 112.297
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Tulsa at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 107.771; Phoenix 120.388
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 162
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Over

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DAVE COKIN

DETROIT TIGERS AT CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: CLEVELAND INDIANS -125

These are tough times for the Tigers. Their long time ace, Justin Verlander, is getting lit up on a regular basis. Reining Cy Young fireballer Max Scherzer has been erratic lately and one can’t help but wonder if the buzz over his rejection of a huge long term contract offer and impending free agency is having an undesirable effect. The bullpen has been a problem all season and of late, the Tigers aren’t exactly crushing the ball on offense.

As a result, the Tigers find themselves in an unexpected position. They’re currently looking up at the Royals in the AL Central race by a half game, and Detroit has the rest of the division all within striking distance. I would still make the Tigers the favorite to eventually emerge as the top team in this sector, but it’s not as clear cut as it certainly seemed to be prior to the start of the season.

The Indians are one of the chasers and I don’t see any reason they won’t be hanging around all season. The Tribe gained valuable experience in last year’s successful drive to the post-season, and if the pitching can hold up, the offense sure looks like it can carry the load. Cleveland is vulnerable to good lefties, but they’ve been tough on righties and that figures to continue.

The Indians appear to have also discovered an ace to anchor the staff. Corey Kluber is legit. There’s no way this was envisioned as a possibility. Kluber was a late arriver to the big league scene after being drafted by the Padres in the 4th round of the 2007 draft. There really wasn’t anything in his lengthy minor league resume that suggested he would be more than a middle to back end big league starter, and even that ceiling seemed a little optimistic.

That’s all water under the bridge at this point. Kluber’s peripherals suggest he’s anything but a fluke and is in fact getting better. He throws hard and his mechanics are impeccable. I have no idea how this evolution took place, only that it did. And the Indians are loving being the beneficiary of Kluber’s rise to unexpected stardom.

Rick Porcello is no pushover and he’s enjoyed a good deal of success in his dealing with the Indians. Porcello is probably never going to be an All-Star but he has developed into a decent middle of the rotation hurler who will give his team a chance to win more often than not, although he can occasionally get blown up.

The Indians will apparently be without Michael Brantley for at least one more night, and make no mistake, that’s a hit to their offense. But this is still a potent attack against righties and I like their chances of getting enough on the board this evening to be in position to win. I’ll rely on Kluber to take care of the rest. In spite of his success, the market hasn’t truly caught up with Kluber yet. It’s certainly trending in that direction, but considering his form and that of the Tigers presently, I still see the line for this game being a little short. So the view from here is that there’s still some value to be had with the home team, even though they’re the favorite here. I’ll side with Kluber and the Indians to win this important series opener.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Costa Rica +1 -105 over Italy

With the first set of Group D games in the books, oddsmakers are still inclined to portray Costa Rica as a heavy underdog against Italy, despite a convincing win against Uruguay on Saturday. Italy enters this fixture with an impressive win against an England team, who simply did not appear to have much chemistry. However, Costa Rica did. In fact the Costa Rican team eliminated any notions that underdogs cannot win and win handily. Uruguay had all the ducks in a row after they marked first in the opening fixture. However, in the second half Costa Rica would launch a series of surprise attacks. Each goal was more brilliant than the next and was the result of creative artistry. Despite their 3-1 victory of the highest ranked club in the group in Uruguay, Costa Rica is better than a 6-1 underdog here. One win as a significant dog instills a ton of confidence and that’s what Costa Rica brings to the table for this one.

To proclaim that Costa Rica will win this match outright would be a tad ambitious. Though, it’s certainly not inconceivable. The key in this match-up is the strategy employed by Costa Rica to subdue the shark that is striker Mario Balotelli. Balotelli was responsible for probing and attacking the England defense in the opening game, resulting in his sixth international goal of Italy’s World Cup Campaign and the game winner as well. The Italians have a point to prove in Brazil after returning home in shame form South Africa. Buoyed by youth and manager Cesare Prandelii’s vision, Italy has been reborn but they don’t figure to take a lot of chances here and in that regard we like the Costa Ricans to keep it close and perhaps even play them to a tie.     


Switzerland +½ +118 over France

A folly in the odds making procedure is evident in the fixture between European contestants, France and Switzerland. France has been playing quality football entering the 2014 World Cup, but Switzerland has climbed the ladder to a top-six position. In astounding regard, France is heavily favored to win this fixture. In “the tale of the tape”, this is pitted to be a very even bout. France is a titan at the World Cup and has appeared in numerous finals and captured a couple of World Cup crowns in the process. Switzerland is the new kid on the block, but the Swiss pack a mighty punch. Seemingly despite their ranking, the Swiss have been sullied and regarded as a bit of a “paper tiger”. The Swiss will be determined to prove doubters wrong and this is the venue to showcase the potential and talent of La Nati.

Many forget that the Swiss announced their prominence with a 1-0 defeat of Spain in the 2010 World Cup. Spain would continue on to win the entire tournament, but the blemish of the Swiss loss was a mark of imperfection in the championship campaign. For the Swiss, this was a feather in the cap and a foundation to build for future success. The Swiss have done exactly that and in fact, in qualification they did not lose one contest. Conversely, the Blues have rested on their laurels and reputation. In recent results, the French has seemed to hit their stride, posting an 8-1-1 record in their last 10. Prior to this, the French struggled greatly losing by considerable margins to Uruguay, Spain, Netherlands, Germany and Brazil in both qualification and friendly play. Switzerland will be the greatest test for France since they squared off with Ukraine in 2013. Neither team will give or break so this has the feeling to be a fixture where one goal is scored by each party. This should be a very evenly matched contest and with that, we’ll lock up the Swiss to tie or win outright.

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Rob Vinciletti

Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Over

This game fits a nice totals system that has gone over 18 of 23 times for road favorites like the pirates off a home win where they had 10 or more hits and are taking on an opponent, like the Cubs that are off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits. The Pirates have played over all 4 times on the road off a home win and in 4 of their last 5 overall. The Pirates have been hot since calling up Prized prospect Gregory Polanco and are scoring over 5 runs per game on .322 hitting the past week. In the series here the last 3 have played over all with 9+ runs scored. C. Morton is on the mound for the Pirates and he has gone over in his last 3 starts and allowed 6 runs in 5 innings here earlier. E. Jackson goes for the Cubs and he has also gone over in his last 3 starts with a 6.32 era. He allowed 6 runs in 4+ innings here earlier in the season. Look for this one to go over the total here today.


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Bryan Leonard

San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Arizona -113

Tim Lincecum takes his 6.94 road ERA to Chase Field in Friday's series opener against the Diamondbacks. Josh Collmenter will go for the Snakes. Lincecum hasn't fared well at Chase Field over the last five seasons. In that span, Lincecum has a 5.55 ERA in eight starts covering 51 innings. On the road this season, opposing teams are batting .313/.374/.473. Current Diamondbacks are batting .293/.342/.488 against Lincecum in a sample size of 225 plate appearances.

Josh Collmenter has pitched well as a starter because of his ability to limit walks. Collmenter has also pitched well at Chase Field this season because he, for whatever reason, works down in the zone more effectively. His ground ball rate is over 10 percent higher at home than on the road and that's definitely a good thing at Chase Field. At home, Collmenter has a 3.61 ERA and has held opposing batters to a .295 wOBA.

With Lincecum's major road troubles and Collmenter's ability to keep his team in the game, the value in Friday's matchup rests with the home team.

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Art Aronson

Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Under 7

With a couple of the most consistent going head to head in this contest, I’m expecting a lower-scoring final outcome. The visiting Mariners will start Japanese born pitcher Hisashi Iwukuma (5-3, 2.59 ERA); Iwakuma is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in three starts this month and has pitched eight scoreless innings and allowed four hits in each of his two career starts against Kansas City. He struck out seven in a 1-0 home victory May 8th and note that he has a 2.49 ERA in winning all three road starts this season. Keep in mind the lower number has hit in three straight Mariners games where Iwakuma was the starting pitcher. The Royals look to get back into the win column and send ace James Shields (8-3, 3.50 ERA) to the hill; Shields, 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three home starts, is 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 13 career matchups with Seattle. Shields will seek his sixth straight win and three in as many outings coming into this game. I think the writing is on the wall and this has all the makings of a classic pitchers duel; consider the “under”.


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Scott Spreitzer

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks    
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -112

The Giants are struggling as they head to Phoenix and we expect more of the same with Tim Lincecum on the mound.  The right-hander has not only struggled in most key categories this season, but he's not fared well against Arizona in recent seasons or in 2014, where he's been tagged for 11 earned runs, 15 hits, and 4 home runs in two starts, spanning just 10 innings of work.  Arizona enters on a 7-3 run in their last 10 against Lincecum.  Josh Collmenter will look to deal the win for the home team tonight.  His team is on a 4-1 run when he throws on five days rest and the righty has posted a .211 BAA and 1.01 WHIP in 10 appearances (7 starts) at home this season.  SFO is averaging just 3.8 rpg in road night games against right-handers on the season and they're on a 0-5 slide, overall.  I'm recommending a play on the Diamondbacks on Friday.

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Nick Parsons

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: Minnesota Twins -119

Minnesota will look to win back-to-back games for the first time in a month after taking the opener of this three-game set 4-2 yesterday.

Joe Mauer had two hits and two RBIs yesterday and is batting a whopping .440 with seven doubles and three triples during a 12-game hitting streak at home vs. the White Sox.

The home side sends Ricky Nolasco (4-5, 5.66 ERA) to the hill; Nolasco has been pretty hit or miss this year, he’s given up seven runs over 11 innings while not getting a decision over his last two starts.

The visitors counter with Hector Noesi (2-5, 5.37 ERA), who has also been hit hard of late, most recently giving up five runs and eight hits over just 3 2/3’s innings in Saturday’s 9-1 loss to Kansas City.

A couple of struggling teams starting a couple of struggling pitchers; I’m going to give Nolasco the slight nod, I think Mauer and the Twins can take advantage of this favorable match-up and are worth the price of admission in this spot.

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Marc Lawrence

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

Morton 4-0 with 2.04 ERA last 4 team starts vs the Cubs; and Morton 6-0 with 2.25 ERA last 6 team starts during June. Cubs: Jackson 0-3 with 6.19 ERA last 3 starts vs Pittsburgh. With the Cubs 4-10 behind Jackson this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Pirates.

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Jim Feist

Braves vs Nationals
Pick: Under

Washington is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a bad Atlanta offense is in town, ranked 29th in baseball in runs, 26th in on base percentage with little power, especially on the road. The under is 7-3-1 in lefty Mike Minor's last 11 road starts. Minor is an excellent control pitcher allowing just 16 walks in 53 innings with 49 Ks. Washington is 3-1-2 under the total against a left-handed starter. Washington doesn't have a great offense, either, 18th in runs scored. At least they have ace Stephen Strasburg going, with a 3.06 ERA fanning 113 in 94 innings and only 20 walks! The under is 9-3 in Strasburg's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. He is 5-1 at home with a 2.10 ERA. The under is 5-2 in Strasburg's last 7 starts vs. the Braves and when these teams meet the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

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Will Rogers

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Pick: Pittsburgh

Those of you who follow my baseball plays will already know that I've done well betting on the Cubs in recent weeks and months, but I'm changing things up a little tonight. Stop the presses! The Coach is betting against the Cubs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Edwin Jackson has really struggled for the Cubs, and the Pirates have hit him hard three times already this year. Jackson (4-7, 5.11 ERA) surrendered seven runs on eight hits in just 4 2/3 innings in a loss to Philadelphia in his most recent start. Prior to that he was roughed up by Pittsburgh in a 6-2 loss at PNC Park. Charlie Morton was opposite Jackson in that game, and he's the scheduled starter for the Pirates tonight.

2. Morton vs Cubs - The right-hander has faced the Cubs three times this season, pitching very well, with a record of 1-0, 2.85 ERA.

3. X-Factor - Andrew McCutchen has not been fooled by Jackson, hitting .462 with three home runs and 9 RBIs in just 26 career at bats.

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Bryan Power

Texas vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels

I don't necessarily like to play MLB teams off a loss, but I'll make an exception here as the Halos are playing a Texas team in the midst of a lost year.  I'll also recommend you get down quickly here as the longer you wait, the more juice you'll have to lay.

The Rangers hold a 14-3 record vs. the Angels since April of 2013, but this club has been severely bitten by the injury bug and sports a -40 run differential.  Somehow they've been able to stay within striking distance of .500, but I don't expect that to last long.  They come into this series off B2B losses in Oakland, prior to an off-day Thursday, and I expect the losing streak to continue.

A major reason why the early money has rolled in on the home team here is because they have Garrett Richards starting.  In three June starts, Richards has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 0.43 ERA & 0.714 WHIP.   Those are obviously outstanding numbers as he's allowed just 1 ER in 21 IP.  Last time out, he struck out a season high 10 batters while tossing six scoreless innings in a somewhat misleading 11-6 final over Atlanta.  It should be just as easy this time out.

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Robert Ferringo

Costa Rica / Italy Under2.5

Costa Rica pulled off a stunning upset against Uruguay, winning as an 8-to-1 underdog and throwing Group D into chaos. I don’t think they can pull an encore. And I think that they know that their best opportunity for surprise advancement out of this group would be to beat England in the final group match for each team. Italy clawed its way to a 2-1 victory over England in its first match. That will allow this team to relax a bit and just go out and play its game. And that game relies on rock solid defense and technical precision. Costa Rica is a lot more freewheeling and open. But that’s not going to work against the Italian back. They may still be going with their back-up keeper as Buffon continues to rest his ankle. But Italy’s backup goalie is still better than 75 percent of other keepers in this tournament. I expect Italy to toss up a clean sheet in this match. Costa Rica’s two goals against Uruguay were amazing and came within minutes of one another. I don’t expect lightning to strike again here. This match looks like a dominating 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Italians. The books have been getting crushed on the ‘over’ all tournament long. But things are going to come back around. Play ‘under’

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Jason Sharpe

Angels vs Rangers
Play: Angels

I have no idea how these Texas Rangers are holding things together. The Rangers have probably been hardest hit of any team in MLB this year with injuries and this comes from both the pitching and hitting. Veteran Joe Saunders has filled in admirably since being re-called three weeks ago. Keep in mind though that this is a guy with a career WHIP of 1.41 and despite the solid four outings he’s had so far, his WHIP for this season is even worse at 1.77 right now and his strikeouts are a very meager 4.4 in those last four outings.

The Angels have quietly put together a decent season and now that they are finally healthy they could start to make a run at things as they have a ton of talent. Hector Santiago was brought back up to start and he looked sensational over a potent Oakland lineup in his first start back up, striking out eight batters and while not allowing a run in six innings of work. He wasn’t quite as sharp in his last outing but he pitched much better than his pitching line as he posted five straight shutout innings to open the game only to have things unravel a bit in the 6th. Overall, though, it was a decent start for a guy with some upside. I think that the Angels take the cash in this one.

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Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -160

The Cardinals will be motivated to even the series at home after losing 4-1 on Thursday and I expect them to do just that. Philadelphia will be starting A.J. Burnett and he's really struggled at Busch Stadium. Burnett is 1-2 with a 13.50 ERA over four starts at St. Louis.

Not only does this look to be a great spot for the Cardinals offense to put up a big number, I look Jaime Garcia to keep the Phillie's bats in check. Garcia is 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.957 WHIP over 6 starts and has been lights out in his last two. Garcia has allowed just 1 earned run on 8 hits over his last 14 innings of work.

With yesterday's loss, St. Louis has dropped two straight. The Cardinals have done an excellent job of bouncing back. They are 39-18 in their last 57 following a loss and 9-2 in their last 11 after 2 or more consecutive losses.

There's also something about Friday and the big crowds that bring out the best in Garcia, as the Cardinals are 12-3 in his last 15 starts on a Friday. Philadelphia helps out even more, as they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter.

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LT Profits

Detroit vs Cleveland
Pick: Under 8.5

Some would refer to this game as a surprising pitching matchup between Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers and Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians, but that is actually only half true. You see, Kluber actually accumulated 2.7 WAR last season but his 147.1 innings were not enough to qualify to be ranked. Well, he is a qualifying pitcher this year and he has been much better than his 6-4 record as he is averaging 10.06 strikeouts per nine innings and has a terrific ratio of 108 strikeouts vs. 28 walks in 96.2 innings with an acceptable seven home runs allowed in 15 starts. That leaves Kluber eight in the majors in FIP (2.69), sixth in xFIP (2.85) and sixth in WAR (2.6). Meanwhile Porcello is 8-4 and has allowed three runs or less in nine of 13 starts. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Porcello’s last eight starts vs. the Indians.

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Bruce Marshall

Tigers at Indians
Play: Indians

After losing 20 of their last 30, the Tigers have dropped from first place in the AL Central. Bringing significantly more momentum into this weekend set is Cleveland, which rallied to beat the Angels on Thursday with Nick Swisher's dramatic walk-off grand slam in the 9th inning. The Indians have won 11 of 12 at home and will look to beat Detroit for the sixth time in seven meetings overall, and starter Corey Kluber has a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts vs. the Tigers. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Rick Porcello is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last five starts.

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Andrew Lange

Milwaukee at Colorado
Play: Milwaukee +100

Colorado's Christian Bergman is 2-for-2 in the quality start department but there is plenty to be concerned with. For starters, he's a soft-tossing right hander who needs pinpoint control in order to succeed. In 554 minor league innings, Bergman fanned only 385 batters. Second, he's already showing signs of being a fly ball pitcher which is obviously a bad thing in Coors Field. In two starts, he's allowed 30 fly balls and 17 line drives. At home against Atlanta, he managed to keep everything in the park but the box score shows five "deep" fly outs. It’s all a matter of time before the home run ball becomes an issue and Bergman ultimately gets sent back down. Milwaukee’s Marco Estrada is the poster child for "extreme fly ball pitcher" with a ridiculous 18.7% HR/FB rate – a stat that has nowhere to go but down. But when Estrada does keep the ball in the yard, he's been solid – just check out the 4.25 xFIP. And unlike Bergman, Estrada can miss a bat or two (74 Ks in 84 IP). I suspect there may be some runs in this one and will side with the road side and the more capable starting pitcher.

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Jeff Clement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -165

Philadelphia(33-38) vs. St. Louis(39-34). A.J. Burnett(4-6) ERA 4.17 vs. J.Garcia(3-0) ERA 3.72. The Phillies are 1-4 last 5 games against left handers and 1-4 last 5 meetings in St.Louis. The Cardinals are 7-3 last 10 Garcia home starts against teams with losing records and have won 8 of last 11 games.

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