Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

Sam Martin

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

This line is a bit too high for us to give out as a premium selection, but we still believe Oakland has a great chance to winning tonight's game behind perhaps the biggest surprise (as far as starting pitchers go) in baseball.

Scott Kazmir has won 12 of his 14 team starts this year with a great 2.05 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. Those numbers get even better here at home with his ERA falling to 1.45 and his WHIP dropping to 0.808, and he hasn't allowed a single earned run in each of his last two starts. Can't go against those type of numbers and we'll back Kazmir to win again!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

Dave Price

Oakland A's -157

Tough spot for Boston facing Kazmir following a long cross-country trip.  The Red Sox are 2-7 in their last nine road games and 0-4 in their last four road games versus a left-handed starter.  Oakland is 12-2 this season in Kazmir's starts, during which he's posted a tidy 2.05 ERA.  His ERA is only 1.45 at home.  Boston's Peavy has a 4.53 ERA on the season and a 5.40 ERA on the road.  The Red Sox are 1-6 in Peavy's last seven starts and 0-4 in his last four road starts.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

Steve Janus

Miami Marlins -115

The Marlins are worth a look tonight, as they send out one of their top pitching prospects in Andrew Heaney, who was taken 9th overall in the 2012 draft. Heaney went 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA at Triple-A New Orleans and appears to be catching the Mets at just the right time. New York is just 4-11 in their last 15 overall and come in averaging just 2.4 runs and hitting a mere .205 as a team over their last 7 games.

Heaney also figures to get some run-support in this one, as the Mets will be starting the struggling Zach Wheeler, who is just 2-7 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.410 WHIP over 14 starts. New York has lost all three of his last three starts and are just 3-6 when he takes the mound on the road.

Key Trends/System - Miami is 13-4 in home games after 2 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and are 14-6 in their last 20 after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Add it up and that's a 27-10 (73%) system telling us to BET THE MARLINS -115!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

LT Profits

Boston vs Oakland
Pick: Under 7.5

Scott Kazmir of the Oakland Athletics has been one of the better stories in baseball while Jake Peavy of the Boston Red Sox may have turned a corner his last start vs. Cleveland, so runs may be hard to come by tonight. Kazmir has turned back the clock to his glory years as he is 8-2 with a miniscule 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and he is showing no signs of slowing down allowing a total of two runs and 13 hits in his last three starts with 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. Now, Peavy has been a disappointment for Boston, but he did look good Saturday while limiting the Indians to one run on seven hits in six innings and he did toss a Complete Game three-hit shutout in this stadium the last time he faced Oakland. The ‘under’ is 16-4-1 in the Red Sox last 21 games overall.

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Wunderdog

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +103

There was a lot of anticipation coming into this season for both of these teams, but as we close in on the All-Star break neither has been able to shed the label of a mediocre .500 or so team. The Reds targeted Homer Bailey as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, and gave him a huge long-term contract. Bailey has gone 7-3, but he has pitched a lot worse than the lofty record with a 4.68 ERA on the season. Jeff Locke has allowed just 3 runs in his last two outings, and has been the better pitcher in this matchup. Locke has also handled the Reds' lineup as he is 2-1 lifetime against them with a 3.04 ERA. The Reds struggle against left-handed pitching at just 3-8 in their last 11 against them, and Bailey is just 3-10 in his last 13 in the role of a road dog. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 19

Bob Balfe ‏

Mets / Marlins Over 7

The Mets actually hit well against left handed starters at just under 5 runs a game while Miami scores about that when they play at home. Miami will start Heaney tonight in his debut. This guy is going to be a good pitcher in this league, but there will be the growing pains. This Marlins pitching staff has been getting rocked. Wheeler has also been struggling for the Mets. In a humid Florida night look for some offense. Take the Over.

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Chip Chirimbes

Mariners at Padres
Play: Padres -119

The San Diego Padres will try and win their second straight today a feat that they have accomplished only once in their last 11 tries after a win. As a matter of fact the weak hitting Padres are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall and the Mariners have won 16 of their last 23 meetings in San Diego. Aside from rookie starter Jesse Hahn (1-1, 3.72 ERA) has just 10minnigs under his belt but has allowed only seven hits. The best things the Padres have working for them is that Seattle starter Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 5.27) is very hittable surrendering 48 hits in 42 innings.


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Ian Cameron

Milwaukee at Arizona
Play: Over 8.5

It has without a doubt been a struggle for Yovani Gallardo this season but even after a pair of good outings against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, I'm not ready to declare that he's righted the ship. Gallardo has an overall ERA of 3.51 but a FIP of 4.28 which is almost a run higher. His performance against the Pirates in particular where he threw 7 scoreless innings needs to have an asterisk placed next to it because both teams that day were rushing at the plate because the game was threatened to be delayed due to rain. Gallardo allowed 4 runs or more in back-to-back road starts prior to that outing in Pittsburgh and he's allowed 34 hits and struck out just 22 in 35 innings pitched on the road. Arizona scored 7 runs on 13 hits in 12 innings in the two times they faced Gallardo last season and should be in for some offensive success today. On the flip side, Chase Anderson gets the call for the Diamondbacks and he's pitched OK at times but has struggled in this ballpark owning a 4.15 ERA allowing 9 runs in 10.1 innings of work over a pair of starts against the LA Dodgers and San Diego. He was able to neutralize the offensively challenged Atlanta Braves in his last home start but Milwaukee’s lineup is in good form and has scored 37 runs in their last 7 games. Anderson has allowed 6 home runs in as many starts which is a big concern against a Brewers lineup that has many hitters that are more than capable of hitting one out of the yard. Both bullpens have been worked heavily in this series so with a reasonable number of 8.5 with minimal juice it’s worth playing over.

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Ross Benjamin

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Washington Nationals -141

Nationals Hurler Zimmerman is Red-Hot

The starter for the Washington Nationals tonight will be Jordan Zimmerman, and he’s displayed excellent form over his last 3-starts. During those 3 outings the right-hander posted a microscopic 0.36 ERA, a 0.48 WHIP, and has a better than 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio. In 3 starts versus Atlanta since the start of the 2013 season Zimmerman has posted a stellar 1.59 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Zimmerman’s previous start came last Friday at St. Louis, and he’s gone 13-2 in his team starts the last 2 seasons when pitching with 5 or 6-days of rest.

Great Spot for the Nationals

Washington will be facing an Atlanta Braves team this evening which has gone a miserable 1-14 the last 2 seasons on the road, when facing a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The Nationals have gone an extremely profitable 41-14 in night games the last 3 seasons when Jordan Zimmerman is their starting pitcher.

Betting System

Any National League money line home favorite of -135 to -185 that has an OBP of .310 or less on the season, and they’re facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 to 1.35 on the year, has gone 175-67 (72.3%) over the last 17 seasons.

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Jeff Alexander

Arizona Diamondbacks +106

While Thursday's have been a good day for Jeff, they haven't treated Milwaukee well.  The Brewers are 16-35 in their last 51 Thursday games and 3-10 in Gallardo's last 13 Thursday starts.  Arizona bounced back yesterday and is 9-4 in its last 13 home games versus the Brewers.  Gallardo has good career numbers versus Arizona, but he's been shaky in his last two starts against them - both Milwaukee losses - giving up 7 runs in 12 innings.  Arizona's Anderson is 5-1, 3-0 at home, with a 3.21 ERA on the season, and the Brewers aren't familiar with his stuff.

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Rocketman

Milwaukee @ Arizona 
Play: Milwaukee -111

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Thursday afternoon.  Milwaukee comes in with a 43-30 overall record this year while Arizona is now 31-44 overall on the season.  Milwaukee is a solid 23-15 away from home this year.  In day games this season, Milwaukee is allowing only 3.3 runs per game.  Yovani Gallardo is 4-4 with a 3.51 ERA overall this year, 2-2 with a 3.34 ERA on the road this season and 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA his last 3 starts.  Over those last 3 starts, he has 22 strikeouts compared to only 4 walks.  Gallardo is 7-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his 11 starts vs Arizona in his career.  We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today!


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Harry Bondi

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105) over Minnesota

Minnesota is reeling right now. They mustered just two runs and got swept in their just concluded three-game series against the Red Sox and have dropped five straight games. Tonight they send 30 year old minor league journeyman Yohan Pino to the hill to make his major league debut against the White Sox who are coming off a pair of home wins over San Francisco. The South Siders piled up 15 runs in the two game sweep of the National League's best team and they should have no problem pounding Pino tonight.

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