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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 18
MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 18
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
The meeting between Toronto and New York Wednesday night is one that gives pause to Toronto backers. Mark Buehrle 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA over fourteen starts (11-3 TSR) is in a funk having suffered his third loss of the season last time out and second consecutive loss on the campaign. On the other bump, Yankees' Chase Whitley (2-0, 2.41 ERA) heads to the hill with back-2-back victories under his belt and is undefeated over six starts (5-1 TSR). What should really get the attention of Toronto backers is that the Bronx has been a bummer for Jays. After getting nipped 3-1 in the opener they'll hit the field on a 2-18 skid the past 20 trips into the Big Apple. If that were not enough to have Jay backers sitting this one out or fading their favorite team the numbers compiled by veteran Buehrle vs New York should. The left-hander has seen Jays lose all four of his starts vs New York since he joined the club last season and the hurler takes the ball sporting a dreadful 0-15 team start skid vs Yankees wearing a Jay/Pale Hose uniform.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 18
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Reds at Pirates
CIN: Simon (9-3, 2.95 ERA)
PIT: Volquez (4-5, 3.89 ERA)
Series recap: The Reds outlasted the Pirates, 6-5, as Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh for the third time this season when Johnny Cueto starts. Cincinnati cashed as -115 favorites, while improving to 6-1 in its last seven road contests. The Pirates lost for just the second time in their last six home series openers.
What to watch for: Cincinnati has had its way with Pittsburgh this season, posting a 6-2 mark, including a 4-1 record at PNC Park. The Pirates are 0-5 in Volquez’s starts when they won in his previous outing, while the Bucs have cashed the ‘over’ in five of the last eight games at PNC Park.
Angels at Indians
LAA: Wilson (7-6, 3.50 ERA)
CLE: Masterson (4-5, 5.05 ERA)
Series recap: Cleveland’s 10-game home winning streak came to a screeching halt last night in a 9-3 defeat to Los Angeles. The Indians won the series opener on Monday, 4-3, as the two teams play the rubber match tonight. In five meetings this season, the Angels have grabbed four victories, as the Indians haven’t scored more than four runs in any of these matchups.
What to watch for: Wilson has struggled on the road of late for the Angels, dropping each of his past four starts on the highway, but the southpaw did limit the Tribe to two hits and one run in eight innings of work in a 7-1 victory in late April. The Indians have won four of Masterson’s last five starts at home, while Cleveland owns a solid 6-2 record in the last eight Game 3’s of a series at home.
Blue Jays at Yankees
TOR: Buehrle (10-3, 2.28 ERA)
NYY: Whitley (2-0, 2.41 ERA)
Series recap: The Yankees beat the Blue Jays at home for the 14th straight time on Tuesday, 3-1 to cash as -175 favorites. The last time Toronto won in the Bronx was back in August of 2012, while the Jays have stumbled to a 3-7 record in the previous 10 games overall.
What to watch for: After Toronto won 11 of Buehrle’s first 12 starts to begin the season, the Jays have dropped each of his last two outings against the Orioles and Cardinals. Last season, the Jays lost all four starts made by Buehrle against the Yankees, including three defeats in the Bronx. New York is 5-1 in Whitley’s six starts this season, as amazingly all five wins came on the road and the lone loss came at home to the Twins.
Astros at Nationals
HOU: Feldman (3-4, 3.98 ERA)
WSH: Gonzalez (3-4, 4.62 ERA)
Series recap: The Nationals held off a late Astros’ rally in the series opener last night, 6-5 to cash as -150 home favorites. Washington improved to 3-0 in three meetings with Houston this season, while winning nine of the last 10 matchups with its former National League counterpart since 2012.
What to watch for: Gonzalez is off the disabled list and making his first start since May 17 with an inflamed left shoulder. The final two starts for Gonzalez were nothing to write home about, allowing 12 earned runs and 16 hits in 7.1 innings in losses to the Mets and A’s last month. The Astros have won just once in Feldman’s five road outings, but Houston owns a terrific 8-3 away record in the last 11 tries despite last night’s setback.
Brewers at Diamondbacks
MIL: Garza (4-4, 4.17 ERA)
ARZ: Miley (3-6, 4.71 ERA)
Series recap: The Brewers grabbed the first two contests of this four-game set, including a 7-5 triumph as a short road favorite last month. Milwaukee erased an early 3-0 deficit, as the road team is now 4-1 in five matchups between these clubs this season.
What to watch for: The Diamondbacks have cashed the ‘over’ in six consecutive games, while Miley makes the start tonight after getting scratched last night. Arizona is 6-1 to the ‘under’ in his last seven starts, while the D-Backs have won just once in the lefty’s past five trips to the mound. Milwaukee is riding a 7-2 stretch to the ‘over’ in Garza’s past nine trips to the mound, but the Brewers are 1-3 in his previous four road starts.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 18
Wednesday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Tanaka a Top-3 Option
Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka continued his impressive start to his major-league career, improving to 11-1 with six innings of 10-strikeout ball in a 3-1 win over Toronto. Tanaka ranks third in the majors in value at $876, behind only Minnesota's Phil Hughes ($950) and Oakland's Scott Kazmir ($882).
Phillies (Finally) Pay Off
Philadelphia (+167) ended a long run of disappointing showings as a big underdog, cruising past host Atlanta 5-2 Tuesday night. The Phillies had dropped five consecutive games as a dog of +150 or greater, and scored a combined seven runs in those contests.
Simon Says: Follow the Trends
Alfredo Simon has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the betting world to date. The Cincinnati pitcher is 10-3 against the moneyline and 3-10 O/U as he and the Reds (+106, 7.5) visit Pittsburgh; he is also a sizzling 6-1 SU and 1-6 O/U in seven starts as a road underdog.
Beware Toronto starter Mark Buehrle, who leads the Blue Jays (-105, 8.5) into a rare favorite role at Yankee Stadium. Buehrle is just 1-10 with a 6.02 ERA in 16 career starts against New York, which has won 24 of its last 27 home games versus the Blue Jays.
Don't expect many home runs with Felix Hernandez on the mound. The Seattle ace enters Wednesday's interleague tilt with host San Diego (+116, 6) having gone 10 starts without allowing a longball - a dizzying stretch of 72 2/3 innings - and has surrendered just three all season.
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout homered twice in Tuesday's 9-3 victory over Cleveland and is batting .380 with five home runs and 16 RBIs in 50 June at-bats. Despite the surge, the Angels are just 7-6 SU for the month entering Wednesday's tilt with the Indians (+110, 8.5).
Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy belted a pair of homers and had five RBIs in Tuesday's 7-5 triumph in Arizona. Lucroy is batting a scorching .397 with six homers so far in June, helping the Brewers to a 10-6 record for the month entering Wednesday's game against the Diamondbacks (+102, 9).
Toronto Blue Jays (0-10-1 O/U): The beat goes on for the Blue Jays, who have scored two runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games - and unsurprisingly, lost all seven. The Blue Jays are now 34-35-3 O/U for the season.
Prop of the Day
Taking either the Mariners (+450) or Padres (+325) to win by exactly one run is a strong bet Wednesday, with both Hernandez and Padres counterpart Andrew Cashner among the stingiest pitchers in the majors and neither lineup considered a major threat. Expect a close, low-scoring affair.
The Toronto Blue Jays are expected to activate center fielder Colby Rasmus (hamstring) from the 15-day disabled list Wednesday. The Blue Jays went 22-11 against the moneyline, 10-21-2 O/U and won 1,023 units with Rasmus on the sidelines, but have dropped seven of their last 10.
Arizona right-hander Bronson Arroyo has been diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow and will be shut down for the next 10 days. Arroyo had pitched through pain for the last few weeks but showed no ill effects, reeling off three straight wins to move up to 35th in pitcher value ($+276).
Wind at Fenway Park will be blowing from left to right field at a robust 14 mph for Wednesday afternoon's game between the host Boston Red Sox (-166, 8.5) and the Minnesota Twins. Teams averaged a combined 10 runs and batted .269 in eight games under similar conditions in 2013.
Busch Stadium will see wind blowing out to center field at 10 mph when the host St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 7.5) face the New York Mets. The Cardinals went 7-2 while averaging a whopping 6.22 runs under similar conditions a season ago.
Umpire Note of the Day
The home team is 7-0 in umpire D.J. Reyburn's last seven games behind home plate. Reyburn will call the balls and strikes Wednesday as the visiting Kansas City Royals (+123, 9) look to extend their winning streak to 10 games against Detroit.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 18
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- Things have really changed in baseball in recent years, which has turned the game from being all about waiting for the long ball into scratching and clawing for runs any way possible. This season we have 36 starting pitchers who have pitched at least 40 innings with ERAs below 3.00. In 2007, only one qualifier, Jake Peavy (2.53), finished the season below 3.00.
Today we have a few of those sub-3.00 ERAs going, and a couple are matched up against each other, so let's take at look at how they might fare.
Mariners (-130) at Padres
When seeing Felix Hernandez (8-2, 2.29 ERA) and Andrew Cashner (2-6, 2.47) matched up against each other at Petco Park, my first thought is "right on, let's see that 5.5 pop up on the board with the total." It didn't happen, but the total still came 6 UNDER -115.
Hernandez is 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA over his last six starts while Cashner is 0-5 with a 2.39 ERA over his last seven. Hernandez has shown over the years that he enjoys Petco even more than his own pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, going 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA in six starts.
The Mariners come in on a three-game win streak after losing five straight while the Padres have lost three straight. There's a big asterisk attached to this game because it will be the first home game for the Padres since Hall-of-Famer and Mr. Padre Tony Gwynn passed away on Monday. There will be an emotional pre-game ceremony in front of a capacity crowd.
The dilemma here is whether to side with a team that scores only three runs a game where they could be extra charged up behind their best pitcher, or do you stick with what has been golden and ride Hernandez who is having the best start of his career?
Despite the emotional crowd and the Padres hopes to win, Hernandez is on too good of a roll to go against. This looks like a 3-1 game.
Giants at White Sox
Tim Hudson (7-2, 1.81) leads the NL in ERA while Chris Sale (5-1, 1.97) would lead the AL if he hadn't missed a month worth of starts. This is great matchup, and an important one for the NL West-leading Giants who have lost four straight.
Hudson has not allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts, going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA. Since Sale has come back from a flexor muscle injury, he's gone 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five starts.
The good news if supporting the Giants is their losses haven't been because of lack of hitting. The bad news is that three of the four losses have come due to their normally steady bullpen imploding, including closer Sergio Romo, who took the loss in the first two games over the weekend at Colorado.
In Sale's last five home starts, he's allowed only three runs and nine hits over 32 innings, striking out 43 with four walks. That's hard to go against. Five of his last six starts have stayed UNDER the total and even though this is day game, the total at 7 OVER -115 looks too high. This has the look of being a 3-2 game either way.
Rockies at Dodgers (-210)
The Giants' recent slump couldn't have come at better time as the Dodgers are starting to make a move, winning four of their last five while hitting .315. This is almost the same time last season when they went on their epic run. They'll go for their first sweep of the season tonight and they couldn't ask for a better starter to get the job done than Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.97).
Over his career, Kershaw has handled the Rockies well, going 5-2 with a 1.58 in 10 home starts and he also won at Colorado, 6-1, on June 8. He's currently on a run of winning three straight games and a fourth straight win would be his first such streak since 2012. It's likely to happen which is why he's a -210 favorite tonight, a number that is too much to lay under any circumstances in baseball.
With the way the Dodgers have been hitting lately, they may be able to score quite a few runs off of a recently struggling Jorge De La Rosa (6-5, 4.12), who is 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts. The total is set at 6.5 UNDER -125.
Reds at Pirates (-118)
With Johnny Cueto in the rotation, who knew that it would be Alfredo Simon (9-3, 2.95) saving the first half of the season for the Reds? Now that they've got Joey Votto back in the lineup, and hitting, they've won five of seven. He's hit .357 since being back in the lineup and the Reds are on the verge of getting back to .500 for the first time in almost two months.
Simon has won his past three starts and his +7.9 unit profit margin for bettors is among the top-10 in baseball. He's been at his absolute best on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA in seven starts. One of those was a 5-2 win at Pittsburgh in April when he was getting +115 against Charlie Morton. Tonight, he's getting +108 against Edinson Volquez (4-5, 3.89), who has pitched well lately.
There are a few other sub-3.00 ERA pitchers going today with the Cubs' Jake Arrieta (2.09) at Miami, Oakland's Sonny Gray (2.93) taking on the Rangers and a nice matchup in the Bronx with Chase Whitley (2.41) taking on Mark Buehrle (2.28). Whitley has been amazing this season with the Yankees winning five of his six starts while Buehrle has hit a rough patch with the Blue Jays losing his last two starts.
Mariners (Hernandez) -130 at Padres
Mariners/Padres UNDER 6 (-115)
Giants/White Sox UNDER 7 (-105)
Rockies/Dodgers OVER 6.5 (+105)
Reds (Simon) +108 at Pirates