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NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
Miami was -24 in 25:31 that Lebron James sat out in first two games; he had 35 points, 10 boards in Game 2 win. Home team won 12 of last 16 series games; Spurs lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last four by 19-3-7-12 points.. Eight of last 11 Miami games went over total; seven of last ten San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs are just 3-5 on road in playoffs, 2-2 vs spread when getting points. Heat is 8-0 SU at home in playoffs, 6-2 vs spread.
Over is 49-37 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-51 in playoffs this season, 11-3 in last 14 games.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
Spurs search for answers
San Antonio Spurs (75-27) at Miami Heat (67-32)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Miami -4 (-115) & 198.5
The Spurs head to South Beach for Game 3 on Tuesday knowing that they must beat the Heat on the road at some point in order to have a chance to win the NBA championship.
After leaving the Game 1 loss with a leg cramp, SF LeBron James left his mark in a positive way in Game 2. James scored 35 points with 10 rebounds to lead Miami to a crucial 98-96 road win on Sunday despite San Antonio being a four-point favorite in the game. The Spurs missed four crucial free throws in a row when their lead was 87-85 in the fourth and the game’s momentum took a permanent swing in the Heat's favor.
The series now heads back to Miami with the series tied at one game apiece. The Heat are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS versus the Spurs when playing at AmericanAirlines Arena over the past three seasons. Overall in that time, Miami is 9-5 SU with both teams having won seven games ATS.
San Antonio is 14-3 ATS this season after a game where it made at least 12 three-point shots, and over the past two seasons, the Spurs are 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite.
However, the Heat are 12-4 ATS this season when playing five or less games in 14 days, and are 15-5 ATS in home games as a No. 2 seed in the playoffs over the past three seasons.
The Spurs had their sights set on winning both of their home games and heading to Miami with a 2-0 series lead, but now they desperately need to win a road game just to give themselves a chance in a Game 7 showdown.
PF Tim Duncan (16.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) continues to play extremely well in the post for San Antonio, finishing Game 2 with 18 points and 15 rebounds. San Antonio abandoned Duncan late in the game, so the club should look to get him more touches in Game 3.
PG Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 5.2 APG in playoffs) had 21 points (8-of-15 FG, 3-of-6 threes) and seven assists in 35 minutes of play in Game 2. Parker took an elbow to the rib area late in the contest and never was comfortable after that. The day off should be good for the Spurs' point guard, as he will need to be aggressive early in Game 3 if he is going to help his team pick up a huge win.
SG Manu Ginobili (14.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) has been giving Miami some serious problems in this series with his slashing ability. Ginobili had 19 points (7-of-15 FG) and four assists in just 28 minutes of play in Game 2. The Heat guards are having trouble with his shifty style of play, and San Antonio should continue to feed him the ball and get him some buckets in transition, as his outside shot has been inconsistent this postseason (43% FG, but 38% threes).
The Heat were right there in Game 1 and would’ve had a prime opportunity to steal that game had SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs) stayed healthy. James, however, came back with one of the more memorable performances of his career in Game 2, producing 35 points (14-of-22 FG, 3-of-3 threes), 10 rebounds and two steals in 38 minutes of play. The cramping issues are now behind the forward and his jump shot has looked as good as ever as of late, as James has knocked down 61% FG, including 5-of-6 threes over his past three contests where he's averaging 28.3 PPG.
SG Dwyane Wade (18.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) had 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists in Sunday's win. But the Heat were not getting Wade the ball as much as they could have, and when he did have the ball, he was forcing the issue a little much. The shooting guard had five turnovers in the game and will need to have more of an impact scoring the basketball in Game 3.
PF Chris Bosh (15.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) continued his hot shooting on Sunday, finishing with 18 points (6-of-11 FG, 1-of-2 threes) in 36 minutes. Bosh hit a huge three late in the game from the right wing that would ultimately win Miami the game. He is averaging 21.2 PPG (57% FG, 10-of-20 threes) and 7.2 RPG over the past five games of these playoffs.
PF Rashard Lewis (5.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG in playoffs) continues to make a huge impact offensively for the Heat, as he finished Game 2 with 14 points on 5-of-9 FG (3-of-7 threes). Lewis has now scored in double-figures in four straight contests, averaging 13.8 PPG on 50% FG and 48% threes during this hot streak.
Check out more NBA Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
Game of the day: Spurs at Heat
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-4.5, 197.5)
Series tied 1-1
LeBron James avoided cramping issues in Game 2 and he looks to help Miami take the series lead when the Heat host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. James received plenty of criticism for the Game 1 situation in which he missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes but his legs held up fine on Sunday as Miami evened the series. James had 35 points and 10 rebounds in Game 2.
San Antonio played a lackluster fourth quarter in Sunday’s 98-96 loss and a tipping point was when point guard Tony Parker and power forward Tim Duncan each missed two free throws in a nine-second span with the Spurs leading by two points midway through the stanza. James scored the next five points and San Antonio held the lead just once the remainder of the contest. Chris Bosh hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 1:17 left and James finished 14-of-22 shooting in a strong bounce-back performance. “Look, he’s the best player in the game,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters afterward. “He has an incredible way to put his fingerprints on a game.”
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened at -4 and quickly moved to -4.5. The total opened at 198.5 and has been bet down to 197.5.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Opened Miami -4 (-115). Line has been up about 12 hours and 71 percent of cash and 63 percent of bets on the spread backing Miami. On the moneyline, Spurs who are +155, getting 53 percent of cash and -175 favorite Heat getting 63 percent of bets." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.com
WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Home court advantage is significant, both the Spurs and the Heat have been 4 to 4.5-point favorites in their own buildings over the first three games depending on where you shop. This series has quickly turned into a classic coaching battle. The Spurs' Gregg Popovich has already been tested by both Dallas and Oklahoma City, but for the most part the Heat have cruised to this point. Eric Spolestra made some savvy moves in Game 2 of the Finals though, so now it's time for Pop to respond. They went a full seven last year and once again, whichever team makes the quicker adjustments from game to game will be the one that comes out on top in this one." - Covers Expert Nick Parsons
ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio closed Game 1 with an impressive 31-9 burst but lacked a finishing kick in Game 2 when it went 6-of-17 shooting in the final quarter. Coach Gregg Popovich noticed issues well before the final 12 minutes and was greatly disappointed with the club’s approach. “We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us,” Popovich said in his postgame media session. “It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else. It means we’re going to have to be perfect on defense, we can’t miss four free throws in a row, those sort of things.”
ABOUT THE HEAT: Bosh scored 18 points in Game 2 as he was assertive in making sure he got his touches. He not only drained the decisive shot but also threaded a pinpoint pass to guard Dwyane Wade for a layup with 9.4 seconds to give the Heat an insurmountable five-point lead. James was most impressed with some dunks Bosh threw down while being ecstatic about his teammate’s solid all-around game. “He had two dunks that we haven’t seen in a long time, man,” James told reporters. “When he has that mindset, he just mixes it up. He’s the forgotten guy on our team. Shouldn’t be. Obviously, without his aggressiveness, we don’t win.”
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference.
* Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of wagers on Covers consensus on the Heat.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
Game 3 - Spurs at Heat
By Chris David
The NBA Finals continue Tuesday from American Airlines Arena as the Heat and Spurs resume their best-of-seven battle. Miami evened up the series 1-1 on Sunday with a 98-96 victory in Game 2 from the AT&T Center in San Antonio. After leaving in the fourth quarter of Game 1 to cramps, LeBron James rebounded with a 35-point performance in Game 2 and helped the Heat hold off the Spurs as 4½-point road underdogs.
Miami’s victory wasn’t surprising to VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers, who used the Heat as a top selection on Sunday night. Rogers explained his rationale for Game 2, “It’s become pretty public knowledge Miami’s ability to bounce back off a loss in the playoffs over the last few seasons, going 13-0 straight up and 12-1 against the spread in their last 13 situations. I’d rather ride a trend than go against it and I’ll likely back this angle going forward.”
The lone ATS loss for the Heat during this stretch came in this year’s postseason when Miami rallied past Brooklyn for a 96-94 victory in Game 5 but failed to cover as a seven-point home favorite.
Looking ahead to Game 3, oddsmakers opened Miami as a four-point favorite and a few sportsbooks have added the hook (4½) to the Heat.
Rogers believes bettors will have another angle to back the Heat in Game 3. He said, “The Heat fall into a profitable situation when they’re tied 1-1 in a series. In these situations, Miami owns a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in Game 3’s of a series after losing the series opener. The lone loss during this stretch came on the road at San Antonio in Game 3 of last summer’s NBA Finals. During the first title run for this group, the Heat lost the finals opener at Oklahoma City, but captured Game 2. In Game 3 back in South Florida, Erik Spoelstra’s team beat the Thunder, 91-85 as four-point favorites en route to winning the championship.”
Before you run to the counter and bang Miami, it should be noted that San Antonio was the best road team (30-11 SU, 25-16 ATS) during the regular season. However, Rogers makes us aware that the playoffs have been a different story for San Antonio on the road.
He explained, “Miami snapped San Antonio’s nine-game home winning streak with a victory in Game 2, and the Spurs can turn the tables on the Heat, who have won all eight games played at the American Airlines Arena in the playoffs, while covering six times. What’s troubling is that the Spurs have cashed just twice in eight road games this postseason, but they did win the Western Conference title by knocking off Oklahoma City in Game 6 of the conference finals.”
As Rogers mentioned, San Antonio is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road in the postseason. As road ‘dogs in this year’s playoffs, the Spurs are 2-2 both SU and ATS, winning Game 3 at Portland and Game 6 at OKC.
Miami’s postseason record at home is perfect (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) this season and what’s even more impressive, the Heat are 38-7 in South Florida since LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh formed their alliance in 2010.
San Antonio does own one of those seven wins against the Heat during this span. However, after watching Game 2 play out, it appears the talking heads on television, radio and social media have already started to “flip-flop” and hop on the Heat’s bandwagon.
Agreeing with the so-called pundits are the oddsmakers, who have now made the Heat a minus-150 favorite (Bet $100 to win $66) to win the NBA Finals. Prior to Game 2, bettors could’ve taken Miami as high as a 9/5 betting choice (Bet $100 to win $180). San Antonio is a plus-130 underdog (Bet $100 to win $130) heading into Game 3.
Is everybody overreacting to Miami’s two-point victory in Game 2?
Absolutely, but I also believe everybody overreacted to San Antonio’s 15-point win in Game 1.
These are the two best teams in the Association and this matchup is practically even. The difference will be LeBron’s shooting vs. the Spurs’ shooting and that’s how it played out in the first two games.
In the opener, the Spurs went 14-of-16 (88%) from the field in the fourth quarter, which included a perfect 6-of-6 from 3-point range. On Sunday, San Antonio went 6-of-17 (35%) from the field in the fourth and only mustered up 18 points, which was half (36) of what the produced final 12 minutes of Game 1.
LeBron’s production was great in Game 2 and not surprising. It was the sixth game in this year’s playoffs that he’s posted 30-plus points and I believe he won the game for the Heat in the third quarter. That’s when he scored 14 of his 35 and kept the Spurs from running them out of the building. It’s rare to see San Antonio put up 36 points in a quarter and not hold a lead by double digits but that was the case on Sunday.
So what should bettors expect for the rest of the series?
At least for the next two games in Miami, I’d be a little hesitant to back San Antonio’s offense on the road. In this year’s playoffs, the Spurs have had four great offensive performances (112.3 PPG) on the road and they went 2-2 with the losses coming by a combined three points. When the attack struggled by their standards in the other four games (93.5 PPG), they went 1-3.
Including Game 2, LeBron has now scored 30 or more points in four of his last six playoff encounters against San Antonio. In the other two, he posted 25 points.
Similar to the first two games played in San Antonio, total bettors are looking at a number of 198 for Game 3. The ‘over’ cashed in the opener while the ‘under’ connected on Sunday and if it wasn’t for a tight game late, the ‘over’ could’ve hit in Game 2 as well.
Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 12-4-1 in the postseason while San Antonio has watched the total go 4-4 on the road in the playoffs.
If you’re undecided on the side or total tonight, you should check out the Prop Bets and Exotic Wagers from Sportsbook.ag!
For example, here are the latest odds on how the NBA Finals will end.
5 Games Heat Win 15/2 (Bet $100 to win $750)
5 Games Spurs Win 17/2 (Bet $100 to win $850)
6 Games Heat Win 2/1 (Bet $100 to win $200)
6 Games Spurs Win 6/1 (Bet $100 to win $600)
7 Games Heat Win 4/1 (Bet $100 to win $400)
7 Games Spurs Win 11/5 (Bet $100 to win $220)
Tonight’s game will tip at 9:05 p.m. ET with ABC providing national coverage.
Game 4 will take place on Thursday from American Airlines Arena.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 10
NBA Finals Game 3 Pick
By: Marcus DiNitto
Zig-zag theorists may have had it too easy Sunday night.
After LeBron James’ cramps derailed the Heat in the opening game of the NBA Finals, these handicappers figured it was Miami’s turn to win Sunday night in Game 2. They were right – Miami prevailed as a 4-point underdog in San Antonio behind a 35-point, 10-rebound effort by a cramps-free LeBron.
Miami is now 6-0 straight-up in Game 2s after losing the first game of a series, and they've won 13 playoff games in a row following a loss. The last time they lost back-to-back games in the postseason was in the 2012 East Finals to Boston.
With the series now shifting to Miami tied 1-1, Game 3 seems to present a more difficult handicapping challenge.
Most Las Vegas sports books opened the Heat -4 for Tuesday night’s Game 3, and early money came in on the favorite. As of Tuesday morning, most oddsboards are flashing -4.5 as tonight’s point spread.
There’s also been some movement on the total, with 198s being bet down to 197.5s at multiple shops.
While laying points with the Heat at home isn’t necessarily daunting – they’re a stout 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in Miami this postseason – they’ve not been particularly strong coming off an ATS win. They’re just 5-5 ATS following a cover in these playoffs, and since Game 2 of the East semis against Brooklyn, they're just 2-4 ATS in these situations.
The Spurs are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road in the playoffs, including 1-2 SU and ATS as underdogs (all in Oklahoma City).
OVER players have cashed tickets after 12 of the Heat’s 17 postseason games, and the trend is even more pronounced for games in Miami, which are 7-1 to the OVER.
For their part, the Spurs are 11-9 O/U this postseason.
The Linemakers’ lean: The Heat seem to get content after wins and play only when they need to, so after stealing home-court advantage from San Antonio, this feels like a spot for a Miami letdown. The 4.5 points is a big number between these evenly-matched teams – Game 2 was tight the entire way – and with revenge on their side, taking the points with the Spurs is a compelling offer.
In terms of the total, Erik Spoelstra has been going with a small lineup this series, which translates into an up tempo. After a 43-43 first half, the pace picked up in the second half Sunday night, to the point where the live-betting total hit 206.5 at one point. We put tonight’s total at 200 or 201, meaning there’s plenty of value on the OVER.
Spurs +4.5 and OVER 197.5 are the plays.
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