Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Steve Janus

Cincinnati Reds -105

It's been a rough go for Cincinnati starter Tony Cingrani since returning from injury. He's lost all 4 starts since coming off the DL, but he looked like the starter that posted a 3.34 ERA over his first six starts last time out. Cingrani allowed just 3 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts, but got just two runs of support in defeat.

While Cingrani is showing clear signs of returning to form, Los Angeles starter Dan Haren is in a bit of a funk right now. Haren has a 4.50 ERA over his last 3 starts, all of which have resulted in a defeat for the Dodgers. Haren's last visit to Cincinnati wasn't a good one, as he allowed 6 runs on 9 hits (4 HRs) in just 4 innings of what ended up being a 15-0 Reds victory.

Key Trend - Haren is 1-10 in his last 11 starts against an NL team who is averaging 3.8 or less runs per game.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season are 59-28 (68%) over the last 5 seasons.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Wunderdog

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Seattle Mariners +173

The Tampa Bay Rays are a sinking ship. They were blown away yesterday as Felix Hernandez mowed down their slumping lineup with 15 strikeouts over 7 innings, allowing 0 runs. The Rays are now 1-12 over their last 13 games, and have scored 2 runs or fewer in more than half of them. Seattle is a hot club right now, winning seven of their last eight, and have produced 12 runs over their last two games. David Price has not fared well lately as he has allowed 18 runs over his last four starts, obviously failing to win any of them. Seattle has been strong as a big dog where they own a 4-0 record in their last four from +151 to +200. The Rays are just 2-10 at home in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record on the season, and 0-5 behind Price after he made a quality start in his previous outing, as he struggles for consistency.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Bones Best Bets

Red Sox / Orioles Over 8.5

Pleasantly surprised to see the books release this number at 8.5 rather than the expected 9. We can not emphasize how big of a difference the two numbers are when betting a total in baseball. 4 runs from each team tonight and we cash this ticket. The Red Sox have scored 4+ in 40 of their 62 games played (64.5%) while the Orioles are less 32/61 (52.5%) but are still over the 50% mark. Both pitchers having sub par seasons - Lackey with a 4.72 ERA and 5.75 last 3 starts while Norris no better with his 4.41 ERA and 6.88 last 3.

Angels -111

Angles were embarrassed swept back in Oakland and tonight will seek revenge. Now the Angels are healthy with Hamilton, Pujols and Trout all in the swing of things. Chavez was hot fire over the the beginning of the month but as cooled off posting a 4.25 ERA over his past 6 starts. While Los Angeles sends Garret Richards to the hill who is 7-1 in their last eight home games, 14-6 as a favorite, and 5-2 in Richards’ last seven starts.

Giants  +119

The best team in the NL should not be an underdog at home. The Giants are 23-9 at home and the Nationals are a .500 road team. Vogelsong and Strasburg have similar ERAs and WHIPs. The Giants are 9-3 in Vogelsongs starts this year and the Nationals are 8-5. Vogelsong has a 2.15 home ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. Strasburg is 0-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road in 30 innings pitched this year. The Giants should be at least a -120 favorite today.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Primetime Insiders

Washington -115

In this matchup we have the Stratsburg and the Nats traveling cross country to play MLB top team in the Giants. Vegas is definitely giving the Giants some respect in this matchup as we can't remember the last time Stratsburg was just a small favorite. Stratsburg is looking to continue the hot streak as he has one two straight. Our system still tells us that Stratsburg is undervalued. Stratsburg is going up against the Giants who are an above average hitting team but are just average when it comes to hitting change ups and curve balls which Stratsburg throws quite a few 23% and 17%, respectively. Stratsburg really should succeed against the Giants as long as he doesn't become too dependent on his fastball. The Giants send Vogelsong to the mound and when he takes the mound the Giants have been almost an automatic win as they have won 7 of his last 8 starts. However, we think there could be quite a bit regression from Vogelson as he has been one of the most lucky pitchers in baseball. Vogelsong has a four pitch arsenal with every pitch having quite a bit of success. The Nationals are a top 12 fastball hitting team and should truly be able to batter Vogelsong especially if he throws more fastballs and stays away from his excellent curveball which could give the Nats fits.

Cleveland -110

House takes the mound against Texas on Monday night and our system believes he could be in for a good night against Martinez and the Rangers. House has been a good pitcher this year our system still believes there is quite a bit of value to back House. House is very dependent on his slider and change up which he throws a quarter of the time and should find great success against one of the worst slider hitting teams in baseball. Martinez on the other hand has been very overvalued and is due for the bruising against the surprisingly strong hitting Indians. Martinez throws 3 pitches and per our system none of them are anything to write home about. He is a fastball pitcher and might find some success against a bottom fastball hitting team but also throws a slider and change up close to 20% of the time which could be an issue against the Indians who succeed against those two pitches. Depending on where the number goes we might want to bet the run line with the Indians as well as our system shows they run away with this game.

Dodgers -105

Haren taking the mound against the Reds in Cincy on Monday. Haren takes the mound and he is very dependent on the cutter and fastball pitches which should lead to great success against the Reds who are poor against both of those dominate pitches by Haren. Even though Cingrani owns a 2-6 record we still feel that is overvalued and is in for a tough night against the Dodgers. Cingrani's go to pitch is his fastball which could potentially give the Dodgers fits but he also throws quite a few sliders and change ups which are going to get destroyed by the great slider hitting Dodgers. This looks like a classic short road favorite that could win by a couple runs as Haren should keep the Reds under 3 runs and Cingrani should allow 4 or 5 runs.

Yankees +115

Nuno who has been torched to the tune of an ERA sitting at 5.33. Nuno is undervalued by our system and per our system should be able to turn the tide and lead the Yankees to a victory. Nuno has a 4 pitch arsenal fastball (42%), slider (31%), curveball (16%) and change up (11%). The Royals should find very few bats as they are one of the worst fastball hitting teams in baseball and poor against every one of Nuno's pitches. Nuno's best pitch is his change up and when it is used has been very dominate. Vargas on the other hand owns a record of 5-2 with an ERA of 3.28. Vargas is very overvalued per our system and could have some trouble against the Yankees. Vargas owns probably one of the best change ups in baseball which he throws about 31% of the time. If he becomes too dependent on this pitch he could run into some trouble as the Yankees are an above average change up hitting team.

Oakland -105

Another small favorite with the Athletics in Anaheim on Monday night. Chavez takes the mound as an undervalued pitcher. Chavez throws the cutter on close to 40% of his pitches and should be able to find some success against the average hitting Angels. The Angels are the second best fastball hitting team so it is very promising that Chavez is not dependent on the fastball like other pitchers. Richards is coming off an excellent outing against the Astros where he struck out 9 batters through 8 innings. The Athletics are a completely different team than the Astros. Richards is a fastball pitcher throwing a fastball on close to 70% of the time and the remaining is a great slider which he throws on 24% of the time. The problem is that the Athletics are top 3 against fastballs and above average against sliders. The Athletics should be able to get to Richards early and give him fits. Chavez should find success and turn it over to one of the more underrated bullpens in baseball.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Tapin Sports

Oakland + 101

Richards cannot beat Oakland as he is 0-6 against them . Oakland is 5-1 against LAA this year and a Whopping 20-7 in their last 27 Monday night games and 41-19 in gm1 of a series. And we get them at + money tonight. We take that.

Houston + 124

I know it doesn't pencil in on paper. However the Astros are hitting the ball and have a great young mix of players and tonight they roll into AZ after beating up on the Twins scoring 14 runs including a grand slam. Yes AZ just took 2 from the Braves, however this spot is suspect for them. Since the books have them at -134 I don't think so. Houston competes with them in this quick 2 set series. Not to mention they go back to Houston on Wednesday and do it all over again. Houston steals a game in AZ and at + 124 and coming off super hot bats on Sunday. We take it.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Tapin Sports

Kings +120

So here we sit. Game 3 of the Cup and the Kings are doing exactly what they did 3 years ago. They Wont Lose no matter what is thrown in their faces. Down 4-2 no big deal they come back. Out shot No Big Deal they come back. Out skated No big deal they come back.

Tonight Will be NO Different. 74% of the public and its climbing higher as we speak is all over the Rangers tonight it sits at - 140 as of now 10:26 am PST.

The Rangers are DONE. If you watched gm 2 in the 2nd OT they were gassed out. Once again the Kings found a way to beat them. Tonight will be the Same Story line. It doesn't matter how far in the hold LA goes down they just keep coming back and back.

I don't care what all the numbers say ? Hell its gm 3 of the cup we have played 82 season games 3 rounds of play-offs and 2 games of the cup. At this point numbers are irrelevant.

Kings are the better team. Stronger Hit harder get to the corners and get the puck out and last but not least Score when they need to.

Tonight we take the DOG. Trust me they are Barking loud and nobody wants' to Hear em.

Kings + 120 and if you wait you might even get better odds as the Rangers are getting pounded at the window

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Bob Balfe

Rockies / Braves Over 10.5

These Rockies are built for this stadium and hit right handers very well. On the other side of the token the Braves will be facing Bergman who will make his debut tonight. The Braves have rocked the Rockies over the past few years and I expect both teams to get into the bullpens nice and early tonight. Both pens are brutal so expect a high scoring game. Take the Over.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Bruce Marshall

Astros at Diamondbacks
Pick: Under

This matchup would not have seemed much like a pitching duel a few weeks ago, but Houston's Jarrod Cosart and Arizona's Josh Collmenter are two of the hottest pitchers in baseball at the moment. To wit: Cosart hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight outings, posting a 2.96 ERA, while Collmenter is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in his last four starts and 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three in his career versus Houston. With the total a bit inflated at 8 1/2 runs after both teams erupted for runs on Sunday,, this looks an opportunity for an "under" tonight at Chase Field.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Teddy Covers

NY Yankees at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City

The Yankees have sunk back down to .500 with seven losses in their last ten games.  The biggest culprit in their recent slump has been an anemic lineup, particularly their struggling ‘middle of the order’ bats.  The Bronx Bombers haven’t been bombing, held to four runs or less in each of those last ten contests.  For the season, the Yanks now rank #13 out of 15 AL teams in runs scored, a bottom tier lineup despite their enormous payroll.

Carlos Beltran has only one hit in 14 at bats since coming off the DL. Mark Teixeira was scratched yesterday with a sore wrist, hitting only .176 in his last 16 games.  Brian McCann is hitting just .225 for the season, well below his career norms.  And Derek Jeter is in the midst of a 3-23 slump over his last six games.   Jeter’s quote speaks volumes: “When guys are scuffling it seems like they are scuffling in bunches. When you get hot it seems like a lot of guys are hot. These are the times you've got to keep swinging."

That’s bad news against Jason Vargas, who has thrown absolute gems in five of his last six trips to the hill.  Vargas allowed a grand total of six runs in those five starts, the lone exception coming in one homer filled game against the White Sox.  The Yankees are currently tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, not a team likely to take Vargas out of the yard multiple times tonight. The Royals bullpen behind Vargas is relatively fresh and in solid current form.

That cannot be said about the Yankees ‘pen, a unit with a 7.18 ERA during this 3-7 skid.  That’s bad news with Vidal Nuno on the hill, winless in his last starts and coming off a tough outing against Oakland.  His quote following the short 4.2 inning effort: “My ball was kind of everywhere."  The Royals have a winning record against southpaws this year, worth backing here in this very reasonable price range.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Rob Veno

Houston at Arizona
Play: Under 5 1st 5

With Houston’s lineup having very limited at-bats versus Diamondbacks starter Josh Collmenter and Arizona having zero regular season looks at Astros starter Jared Cosart, the table is set for potential early inning scoreboard silence. Houston CF Dexter Fowler is the only everyday player who has faced Collmenter more than five times and he’s hit .176 (3-17) off him with a .263 OBP. Each of tonight’s starters are on solid runs as Cosart owns a 2.96 ERA over his last eight starts while Collmenter has a 3.20 mark and 1.07 WHIP in his last four outings. Collmenter has been especially tough to reach base on here at Chase Field where his home WHIP is 0.97this season. Despite their recent surge, Houston has not scored many runs when facing RH starters lately having scored 3 runs or less in six of their last eight chances. Collmenter’s funky delivery figures to cause the young Houston bats some problems through at least the first couple times through the order. On the other side, Arizona should have an equal amount of trouble against Cosart’s 93 MPH fastball and 78.5 MPH curve. The 24 year old righty has been consistent throwing strikes with each and despite the fact that he’s almost exclusively a two pitch pitcher, he’s been able to keep lineups at bay for an average of six innings during his solid eight game stretch. The bullpens are flaky at best in this contest so rather than getting caught up in a game selection here, the best route seems to be the five inning line. With these pitchers having the perceived upper hand through the first half of the game, under 5 runs is the way we’ll choose to play this one.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Jeff Alexander

San Francisco Giants +120

Strasburg hasn't been the same force on the road where he's 0-3 with a 4.80 ERA in 5 starts.  The Nationals have struggled on the road versus strong home teams like San Francisco.  They are 3-8 in their last 11 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage of 60% or higher.  The Giants are 35-16 in their last 51 overall and 20-6 in their last 26 home games.  The Giants are 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts and 7-1 in his last 8 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Vogelsong has a 2.15 ERA in 6 home starts this season.  He's allowed 0 runs in 3 of his last 4 home starts.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Dave Price

Oakland A's +106

LA's Richards has struggled at home where he has a 5.33 ERA, and Oakland has had his number.  The Halos are 0-6 all-time in his starts versus the A's, and he's compiled a 7.50 ERA in these starts.  The A's have won five of the last six meetings overall and are in good position to continue their dominance of the Angels with Chavez on the mound.  Oakland has won six of his seven road starts this season while he's posted a 2.98 ERA.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Sam Martin

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Solid value in backing the Giants at home as a small underdog, and while Washington's Stephen Strasburg certainly has the name value in this pitching matchup, he doesn't owns the stats to justify this price.

In five road starts this year Strasburg is 0-3 (2-3 team start record) with a high 4.80 earned run average, and when matched up against a pitcher in Ryan Vogelsong who owns a strong 9-3 TSR on the season, along with a 2.15 home ERA, it's clear we're getting tremendous value backing the Giants at this price.

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Harry Bondi

CINCINNATI (-115) over LA Dodgers

The highly touted Dodgers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in baseball this season and a profitable situation to go against them has been after a win, where they have gone 12-20 (-16.2 units). What's more, LA has struggled against southpaw starters, averaging just 3.2 runs per game and in his only career start against the Dodgers Cinci left-hander Tony Cingrani held LA to one hit and no runs in seven innings of work. Look for the Reds to have plenty of scoring opportunities against Dodgers starter Dan Haren, whose ERA on the road is almost a full run higher than when at home. Reds roll!

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

OC Dooley

Yankees +115

For those who have taken the time to read this analysis segment you are aware that Kansas City won a 2-1 final verdict yesterday versus New York.  The starting pitcher for the host Royals was the same James Shields who for years was an elite hurler in Tampa for the Rays. Yesterday the Rays in an on the field ceremony honored the recent passing of bench coach Don Zimmer who was a “father” figure to Shields who commented that he really wanted to be able to attend the affair.  To make a long story short Shields shut down the Yankees in an emotional start but that dynamic does NOT come into play this evening for which I am taking advantage. On the mound tonight for New York is Vidal Nuno who is much better on the ROAD (2.08 ERA) as opposed to Yankee Stadium (6.21 ERA) which makes the mere location of this contest critical .

Blade
useravatar
Online
218307 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45235
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
285039
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.7
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3645
Newest User:
eric
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2277

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com