Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 9

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
The Dodgers head to Cincinnati tonight to face a Reds team that is 0-5 in Tony Cingrani's last 5 starts. LA is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100)

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 12.973; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.362
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 17.510; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.360
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Floyd) 16.700; Colorado (Bergman) 13.124
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 907-908: Washington at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.579; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.865
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 909-910: Seattle at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 14.141; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.194
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-215); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-215); Under

Game 911-912: Minnesota at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.094; Toronto (Dickey) 13.945
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+170); Over

Game 913-914: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 14.954; Baltimore (Norris) 17.792
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Under

Game 915-916: Cleveland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 16.934; Texas (Martinez) 15.410
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over

Game 917-918: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 17.237; White Sox (Noesi) 14.103
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nuno) 14.153; Kansas City (Vargas) 13.779
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+125); Over

Game 921-922: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 16.299; LA Angels (Richards) 17.798
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 13.806; Arizona (Collmenter) 12.224
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Over

NHL

Los Angeles at NY Rangers
The Kings head to New York tonight for Game 3 and come into the contest with a 7-3 record in their last 10 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+120)

Game 55-56: Los Angeles at NY Rangers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 14.289; NY Rangers 12.647
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+120); Over

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DAVE COKIN

LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT CINCINNATI REDS
PLAY: CINCINNATI REDS -115

It’s fair to say that the Dodgers haven’t exactly lived up to their pre-season hype. There’s just no way around it, this team is a good sized disappointment thus far. One of the big issues has been an inability to hit lefties and while LA got to Jorge De La Rosa yesterday in a rain-shortened win against the Rockies, the season numbers are ugly, especially in the stats that I think are the most revealing.

Maybe the outburst vs. a pitcher who is generally nails at home gets the Dodgers going. We’ll get to make a small sample judgement tonight as the Dodgers square off against another lefty as they face Tony Cingrani in Cincinnati. Cingrani has been finding the second time around  much tougher than the maiden voyage last season.

Cingrani hasn’t been terrible but I think he has to qualify as a bit of an underachiever so far in 2014. He’s only made it through six innings in half his starts. Cingrani has been getting himself in early trouble, with a first time through the lineup ERA of 4.71. That’s a big issue, as it means early deficits for the team and elevated pitch counts for Cingrani. Some of this has been bad luck, as Cingrani’s 6/28 BB/K in that first trip through the opposing nine is actually really good. So there’s actually a decent chance that there might be some positive progression coming in this area for Cingrani. In fact, in his most recent start, the lefty was sharp early. He ran into gopher ball issues in the sixth inning against the Giants and took a tough 3-2 loss, but overall I thought this was an encouraging outing for Cingrani.

Dan Haren will throw for the Dodgers tonight. He’s going to throw strikes, but his command lately has been shaky, with too many hittable pitches. He’s had three or fewer K’s in four of his last five starts, while surrendering eight long balls in those outings. Haren was never a flamethrower, but now he’s down in the 87 range with his fastball, and mistakes at that velocity can leave the ballpark in a hurry. It’s not like Haren is getting bombed, but he’s becoming a six inning and hope for the best pitcher. That means he can still survive at the back end of a rotation, but if the other guy is on his game, chances are Haren will get topped.

I see the scheduling dynamics favoring the Reds. I’ve never had a problem trying to beat teams coming out of that Denver altitude and it’s a stay at home series for Cincinnati. But what stands out to me tonight are those Dodgers numbers against lefties. A .206 BA and .282 OBP aren’t good at all. Granted, the stats have been better on the road for LA than at Chavez Ravine, but overall they’re just ugly. If they produce at that approximate level this evening, I can’t see Haren being able to contain the Reds to that extent. Factor in the possible absence of Dee Gordon and Yasiel Puig (check lineups for updated status) and this shapes up as a decent spot for the hosts. I’ll side with the Reds to grab the series opener.

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Art Aronson

Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -184

The Jays are the big favorites here for a reason and I look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Twins are off a 14-5 drubbing at the hands of the Astros yesterday and send right-hander Rickey Nolasco (4-5, 5.65 ERA) to the hill; Nolasco picked up a win after allowing four runs in seven innings Wednesday against the Brewers. For the most part though, Nolasco has been a disappointment this year and a date vs. hard-hitting Toronto is not what the doctor ordered to keep his string of success rolling. The Jays meanwhile look to snap a two game losing streak when they send R.A Dickey (6-4, 4.25 ERA) to the mound; Dickey is 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his last eight outings, including Wednesday's 8-2 victory in Detroit. We need to keep in mind that the knuckleballer has been very good at home this season as well in posting a near-perfect 5-1 record with an ERA of 3.48 over eight starts. Note that much of the Blue Jays' lineup has had success against Nolasco with Jose Reyes batting .327 in 49 at-bats with three home runs; Dioner Navarro (7 for 15), Juan Francisco (5 for 11) and Melky Cabrera (6 for 16) have all homered against him as well. The Jays got shut down by the strong Cardinals pitching in inter-league play the last two days but I expect things to return to normal here. Toronto has still won six of eight overall coming in and has taken five of six meetings at home over the Twins. I have no problem laying the big price here as the Jays bats are ready to resume their onslaught.


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Scott Spreitzer

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: Washington Nationals -117

I'm recommending a play on the Washington Nationals on Monday night.  Two hot teams and two hot pitchers matchup in this one, but we believe the Nats own the advantage with Strasburg over Vogelsong.  The Washington hurler has enjoyed his starts against the Giants, while the San Francisco right-hander has been smacked for a 5.59 ERA in seven starts against the Nationals.  Normally, the Giants own an advantage over their opponents in the pen, but not against the Nats.  The gang from D.C. actually ranks #1 in bullpen ERA, while the Giants are #2. The Nationals enter on a 48-18 run as road chalk and they're on a 15-6 run when Strasburg takes the bump.  And after tonight, I believe they're be 9-4 in their last 13 against the Giants.  I'm recommending a play on the Nationals on Monday night.

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Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Kings vs. NY Rangers    
Play: NY Rangers -127

The Rangers have led just about every minute in regulation in the series but return home after a pair of disappointing losses. In NHL History Three teams have lost Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 NHL Finals on the road but won the series: the 1971 Montreal Canadiens over the Chicago Blackhawks; the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins over the Detroit Red Wings; the 2011 Boston Bruins over the Vancouver Canucks. So the series can still be competitive and the Rangers should be energized by what will be a raucous crowd. The historical grid below shows that Game 3 teams off back to back road losses tend to bounce back. New York knows the importance of this game and will primed for a complete 60 minute effort and get one back here at home tonight. Look for the Rangers to win game 3.


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Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Bud Norris and the Birds host the Jake Peavy and the Red Sox in the opener of this three-game series at Camden Yards Monday evening in a match-up of two pitchers with contrasting numbers. That's because Norris enters with a sharp 3.12 ERA at home, as opposed to a 5.23 ERA on the road this season. On the flip side, Peavy is 1-4 away with a 5.46 ERA this campaign. With Peavy in miserable current form at 1-4 with a 7.56 ERA in his last five overall efforts, we recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

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Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

The Bucs have lost back-to-back home games to the Brewers, getting blown out on Saturday by a score of 9-3, and then getting shutout on Sunday in a 1-0 pitcher's duel. Taking on the Cubs in the opener of a new series at home, might be just what they need to get back on track.

Edwin Jackson will toe the slab for the visitors, and he hasn't missed many bats this season. Jackson (4-5, 4.59 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and five walks in five frames in a win over the Mets his last time out. His numbers on the road this year are of major concern, going 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA.

The Pirates hand the ball to Charlie Morton, who has not been all that sharp either. Morton (2-7, 3.31 ERA) struck out a season high nine batters in his last start, but still only made it through five innings. He hasn't been that consistent, but he should prove to be better than Jackson, who has been consistently awful.

Andrew McCutchen has owned Jackson, batting .435 with a home run over 24 career at bats.


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Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have climbed out of the NL Central cellar and are now looking to pass Cincinnati for third in the division. They still trail first place Milwaukee by eight games, but they have been playing much better of late, winning six of their last 10 games. Meanwhile the Cubbies are 25-34 on the season and sit last in the NL Central. The Cubs are tied with Miami for the fewest road wins in baseball (10). Now the Cubs must go on the road where they 16-35 in their last 51 as an away dog. It doesn't get much better for the Cubs when today's starter, Edwin Jackson is on the mound. Jackson is 4-5 on the season with a 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In addition the Cubs are just 5-17 in his last 22 starts. Moreover, when installed as a dog, the Cubs are just 4-14 in his last 18 starts. Charlie Morton starts for the Bucs and while Morton is just 2-7 on the season, he has a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Moreover, both Morton's wins have come in his last three starts. Morton also has had many quality starts, evidenced by his three runs or less allowed in eight of his last 10 starts. The Bucs are the better team and Morton is much better than his record indicates.

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Bryan Power

Oakland vs. LA Angels
Pick: Oakland

Any time where you can get the league leading A's at 'plus-money', you have to at least consider taking them.  I will Monday as they open up a series in Anaheim against an Angels team they recently swept in Oakland.  The second place Halos would love nothing more than to return the favor, but this A's team is just too good as they won again yday, 11-1 in Baltimore, to improve their MLB-best run differential to an astounding +128.  No other team is better than +65.  Look for Oakland to keep rolling.

The road team will send out Jesse Chavez in this one as they look for win #40.  He has a 9-3 TSR w/ a 3.04 ERA & 1.203 WHIP.  While he may have cooled off since April, the bottom line is that he came away a winner at Yankees Stadium his last time out.  Also, Oakland has the best road record in baseball at 22-12.

In Oakland's sweep of the Angels last week, they got to starter Garrett Richards early in the series opener, scoring five runs in the 1st inning and knocking him out of the game after getting just one out.  Richards gaining revenge tonight is unlikely considering a 0-6 TSR and 7.50 ERA lifetime against the A's.

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TJ Masterline

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Cleveland Indians -110

The Cleveland Indians are putting together a hot streak the old-fashioned way – with strong starting pitching and timely hitting. The Indians try to secure their ninth win in 10 games and grab a series win when they visit the Texas Rangers on Monday for the finale of their four-game series. Cleveland dropped the series opener on Friday but bounced back to take the next two as Josh Tomlin and Justin Masterson came through while Lonnie Chisenhall continued to stay hot. Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Indians are 8-1 in their last 9 overall. Indians are 8-1 in their last 9 games on grass. Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. angers are 6-14 in their last 20 home games. Rangers are 6-15 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Rangers are 1-9 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.

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Bryan Leonard

Cleveland at Texas
Play: Texas

TJ House has pitched much better than anticipated. He's really not one of the Indians most heralded prospects and his arsenal is considered ordinary. That said he has pitched better than projected and he has been able to fill in nicely with the other Tribe starters dealing with injuries. But Cleveland has never really played well against the Rangers and this line is a bit out of whack.

Sure Texas starter Martinez is nothing special, and the Rangers have been snake bit by injuries all season long. But to get Texas in basically a pick 'em situation at home is just something we can't overlook. Despite all the problems the Rangers have had this year they are still fighting tooth and nail everyday. We will take the small dog here to even up the series.

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River City Sharps

San Francisco Giants +111

While Ryan Vogelsong (4-2, 3.39 ERA) had a shaky start to the season, he has been outstanding over his last three starts and he will take the mound tonight against Stephen Strasburg (5-4, 3.10 ERA) and the Washington Nationals. Both of these teams are playing good baseball right now with the Giants sporting the bst record in MLB. The Nationals have won seven of their last nine games and the Giants are winners of five in a row and 14 of their last 17 games. Over his last three starts, Vogelsong has been dominant going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA. While Strasburg has been really good at home, life on the road hasn't been quite the same. He is 0-3 over his five road starts this seaosn with a 4.80 ERA. The Giants have given Vogelsong really good support when playing he better teams on their schedule as they are 7-1 in Vogelsong's last eight starts vs. teams with a winning record. An interesting trend line to consider is the Nationals inability to back up wins as they are 8-17 in their last 25 games following a win. We really like the way Vogelsong is throwing the ball right now and we see lots of value backing the Giants here at home tonight.

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Chase Diamond

NY Yankees vs. Kansas City
Play: NY Yankees +117

This game has the 31-31 Yankees at the 31-32 Royals. Yankees are 3-7 in there last 10 and are desperate coming into this game. The Royals are a up and down team. Vidal Nuno needs a good start here. Vargas the Royals starter has a 6.75 ERA in 8 strats versus the Yankees. Despite Nuno's poor numbers this year the Yankees are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts.


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Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Twins +160

The Twins are showing great value as a huge road underdog against the Blue Jays on Monday. There's no denying that Toronto has been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month, but they come in having not scored a single run in two straight losses.

While Minnesota allowed 14 runs in yesterday's 9-run defeat to the Astros, that actually sets the Twins up in a favorable spot to rebound. Any team after allowing 12 runs or more against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games are 95-53 since 1996. That's a 64% system telling in favor of the Twins!

Another key factor here is that Toronto starter R.A. Dickey has not had a lot of success against the Twins. Dickey is just 1-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over 6 career starts. In his only start versus Minnesota this season, Dickey allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks over just 4 1/3 innings of a 0-7 defeat.

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Brandon Shively

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: Washington Nationals -119

I like the Nationals to win this game tonight with Strasburg on the mound. While San Fran does have the best record in the Majors, the Nationals are now 7-3 their last 10 games, and have won Strasburg's last two starts. He has made 3 career starts vs. the Giants and has a 1.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

The Giants will call on Vogelsong and the Giants are 7-1 in his last 8 starts. But he has struggled in the past vs. Washington as the Nationals are hitting .339 vs.  him. Lefties are hitting .287 on the season vs. Voglesong and Washington has 5 guys they can insert in the lineup to hit left handed to take advantage.

It is not often you will find Strasburg at such a cheap price as this game is currently a -120 at most sports books. Of course the reason for this is because the Nationals are playing the best team in the Majors right now. I would not normally step in front of the Giants, but with the Nationals bats coming alive and the pitching looking good, I feel this is a game Washington can win. Washington is only giving up 1.7 runs a game over their last 7 games as opponents are hitting .188. I really feel this is a perfect spot for Washington tonight and I have no problem recommending them as a complimentary selection.


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Dennis Macklin

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½

Jake Peavy started the season like a house on fire but he's come back to field just as fast and hs been no mystery whatsoever over his last six starts. He's 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed 36 hits in his last 26 1/3 innings of work. Bud Norris is rocking his own 6.88 ERA in his L3 outings and has been hammered by the BoSox the last three times he's faced them (17 1/3, 8 earned, 26 baserunners) in the last calendar year. The Orioles are on a 6-1 run to the Over and eight of their last 10 games at Camden Yards have flown Over the total. No reason not to take a flyer of the "High" here tonight.

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y.R to win Game 3 & win Series +600 over LOS ANGELES

We would only recommend this wager if you bet the Kings before the series @ -160 or thereabouts. This prop bet can be found at both Sports Interaction and Bet365. The prop bet is that New York wins Game 3 and wins Series and we prefer that to just winning the series at 4½-1. The rational is that if New York loses tonight, there is virtually no chance of them coming back to win four straight. Should they win tonight, they’re back in it.   

However, letting it ride wouldn’t be such a bad idea either, as history is very much against the Rangers here. In fact, of the 49 teams that went up 2-0 in Stanley Cup Finals history, 43 of those went on to win the Cup. That said, the Rangers could just as easily be up 2-0 as down 0-2. They have blown 2-0 leads in both games and they blew a 4-2 third period lead in Game 2. One could easily argue that the Rangers have been the better team in four of the six periods and while the two losses had to be disappointing, the Rangers also must feel like they can compete against and beat this team.

Still, the Kings have played two sloppy games. We have not seen the best out of them yet while we may have already seen the best out of the Rangers. It’s your call. We recommend playing it safe and take the risk completely out of the wager because the Rangers have not looked a bit out of place in this series. We’re still convinced that the Kings are vastly superior but if L.A. doesn’t clean up their sloppiness, this series could get interesting.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland -107 over TEXAS

Nick Martinez is 1-2 with a 3.22 ERA in six games started while T.J. House is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three games started. Furthermore, House is 0-1 on the road with an ERA of 4.38. The Rangers are at home, yet there are some sharp outfits that have the Indians at -115 while most others has the game listed at a pick'em. When said sharp sportsbooks “take a position” it should not be ignored. Truth is, Martinez is living a very charmed life that isn’t going to last. In 45 innings, Martinez has a brutal BB/K split of 20/21. His 5.96 xERA is the biggest discrepancy between xERA and actual ERA in the majors. Martinez’s 7.70 xERA over his last two starts is the worst in the majors and his 1.84 WHIP over his last four starts is also the worst in the majors. Martinez was rushed to the big leagues and it is showing, as he only has 42 innings pitched at the AA level and is now completely overmatched at this level. He’s been the beneficiary of an unsustainable 88% strand rate and hard hit balls being hit right at people. Pay no attention whatsoever to Martinez’s ERA, as even Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work.

House has showed excellent skills so far in his brief stay. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly ball profile of 60%/20%/20%. He also has an elite swing and miss rate of 13%. House has a long way to go to be considered anywhere near elite because the sample size (19 IP) is way too small to get an accurate reading but one thing we know for sure is that he’s been 100 times better than his mound opponent. Indians figure to score a bunch today and we doubt the Rangers will keep pace.

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Stephen Nover

Nationals at Giants
Play: Giants +111

The Giants are a class above Washington. Ryan Vogelsong is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.79 ERA. His home ERA this season is 2.15. The Giants are 7-1 the past eight times they've faced a winning opponent with Vogelsong on the mound. They have won 20 of their past 26 home contests. Stephen Strasburg hasn't been that sharp on the road with an 0-3 record and 4.80 ERA during his past five road outings. The Giants are the healthier team. The Nationals are without Bryce Harper and still could be missing Anthony Rendon.


Dodgers at Reds
Play: Reds -116

The Dodgers are likely to be missing Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon. They are pitching Dan Haren, who is not in good form and highly vulnerable at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. Haren has a 4.88 ERA during his past four starts, surrendering seven homers in his last 24 innings. The Dodgers are facing southpaw Tony Cingrani, who is starting to get it together after returning four starts ago from the DL having been out with shoulder tendinitis. Cingrani held the Giants to two hits in five hits during his last start before giving up two homers in the sixth inning. "I had my old mechanics back," Cingrani was quoted as saying following the game. "I felt pretty good. My arm felt pretty strong. There were a couple of positives that came out of it. The Dodgers have only seen Cingrani once. That was last July and he held them to one hit and one walk with 11 strikeouts in seven innings. The Dodgers have a losing record versus lefties and rank last in OPS against southpaws.


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Jack Jones

Cincinnati Reds -105

The Cincinnati Reds get the call as a small home favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday.  The Dodgers are only hitting .214 and scoring 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and they'll have to deal with southpaw Tony Cingrani tonight.

Cingrani hasn't gotten off to the best start this season, going 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA, but he is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in five home starts.  Also, the left-hander went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP as a rookie last year, so he's still one of the best young starters in the game.  Cingrani pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 11 in his lone career start against Los Angeles on July 28 last season.

Dan Haren comes in overvalued at 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA this season.  The right-hander had gone 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA with the Angels in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA with the Nationals in 2013.  He has overachieved thus far in 2014, while Cingrani has underachieved.  Haren is 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career starts against Cincinnati.

Haren is 1-10 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog.  Los Angeles is 0-5 in Haren's last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 67-31 in their last 98 when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.

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