Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Sam Martin

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland's Justin Masterson started the year as the team's ace, but he hasn't been pitching like one for the better part of the season. He has, however, seemed to start to turn things around two starts back against these Red Sox, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just four base hits in an underdog win against John Lackey.

We'll back Cleveland in the underdog role tonight with the same pitching matchup noting that loss pushed Lackey to under .500 in his career against Cleveland, and while the Indians lost yesterday's series opener they have still been playing great ball of late winning nine of their last 13 overall. Pure value play here backing Masterson!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Stephen Nover

Reds at Brewers
Play: Reds +123

While the Reds are coming off a confidence-building early Thursday home victory against Zach Greinke the Brewers had to play a night game in New York that lasted more than four hours. So this not a good situational spot for the Brewers even though they are the home team.

The Reds' offense is showing signs of coming around with Joey Votto back after missing 23 games and Jay Bruce heating up. Those two lefties are a combined 10-for-31 (.322) against Brewers righty Matt Garza.

Garza hasn't really turned the corner yet this season. He's given up three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Garza faced Cincinnati twice last season when he was with the Cubs and gave up 13 runs on 13 hits, including four homers, in nine innings.

Reds starter Homer Bailey runs hot and cold and lately he's been hot with four straight victories and a 3.00 ERA during this span. Bailey is 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA during his last four starts against Milwaukee.


Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Wunderdog

Kansas City vs Chicago
Pick: Chicago -128

The Chicago White Sox have made some big strides since their ugly 99 loss campaign last year. This team is holding close in the AL Central, and look to be a team on the rise. They will face a Kansas City team that is young, and also improved, but they will catch the Royals in what has been an ugly spot for a long period of time. Kansas City comes into this game with a woeful 45-102 record when playing as a road dog off a win in their previous game. Jose Quintana has deserved better as he is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA, and he has taken the mound five times at home, and has delivered five quality starts. The Royals are just 3-7 behind Guthrie in his last 10 starts as a road dog, and the Sox's rejuvenated offense is now 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 or fewer in their previous contest. My play is on the White Sox.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

SPORTS WAGERS

LOS ANGELES -½ +104 over N.Y. Rangers

If you’ve ever watched a skilled prize fighter jab away at a lesser opponent you know it’s only a matter of time before that skilled fighter throws that knockout punch. That analogy can be applied here. The Kings have no interest in going back to New York for a Game 6. The Kings have clearly been the dominant team and the Rangers can consider themselves extremely fortunate to have survived that third period onslaught in Game 4 in which they were outshot 15-1. The Rangers have had their moments in this series but the longer it has gone on the more dominant the Kings have become. One could easily argue that Game 4 was the Kings’ best game of the series but they’re not satisfied yet.

So much has been made of the Rangers so-called rotten luck prior to Game 4 in the final. But were they unlucky when they drew the Philadelphia Flyers, perhaps the worst team in this year’s playoffs, in the first round? Were they less-than-fortunate when the Pittsburgh Penguins spit the bit against them in Round 2? Were they victims of misfortune when Carey Price went down in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final? Stanley Cup finals are not dictated by luck. They’re dictated by which team is better and since this series started, that gap between the Kings and Rangers has become a massive chasm. The Kings did not win Games 1 and 2 because they were lucky. They won because once they got themselves in a hole, they imposed their will on the game and took complete control. The Rangers did not win Game 4 because they were lucky. They won because their goaltender turned in an all-world performance. The Kings have dominated the faceoff circle, they have dominated puck possession and they have dominated shots on net. The Rangers are actually outhitting the Kings in this series by a margin of 141-140 but pay no attention to that, as the Kings are finding that it’s difficult to initiate contact when you have the puck on your stick all the time. Why would you ever need to hit your opponent when you’re starting out with the puck the majority of the time and controlling it for ridiculously long periods of time? The Rangers are simply not in the same class as these Kings and L.A.’s killer instinct figures to be on full display here.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +143 over DETROIT

The Tigers are not playing well at all. They just dropped two of three against the White Sox and have now lost six of their past seven series. Aside from their series loss to the South Side, Detroit also has series losses to Cleveland, Seattle, Texas and Toronto (they split with Oakland 2-2). Overall during that stretch, Detroit has just seven wins in its last 23 games. Drew Smyly has been skipped or pushed back in the rotation several times this season due to off days and postponements. It is unclear whether the sporadic usage has negatively affected Smyly's performance, though it made him available for three relief appearances in addition to his nine starts. With four pure quality outings and three disasters, Smyly has shown a tendency toward extreme outcomes. Smyly threw just 99 innings in 2012 and just 76 last season working out of the pen. Now his stamina comes into question, as it always does with relievers that transition to starting. Over his past five starts covering 27 innings, Smyly has a 4.67 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP and he’s walked 11. He also has a 42% fly-ball bias profile. As a favorite in this range against a very good hitting team, Smyly is too big a risk.

After being drafted in the first round of 2009, Kyle Gibson put up some decent stats at AA and AAA in 2010. But he struggled in 2011 and missed 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Gibson has posted a 5-5 record since winning a spot in the rotation at the start of this year and that .500 record is probably very accurate in terms of what to expect from Gibson going forward. Gibson has decent control but strikes out very few batters. Since his swing and miss rate is league-average, it’s likely he’ll see a strikeout growth in the near future. Gibson does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, as his 54% groundball rate will attest to. He also has an elite 17% line-drive rate. At 26, Gibson still has time to grow. For now, though, with so few walks and strikeouts, he’s at the mercy of the batted ball gods. As his hit%, strand%, and hr/f fluctuate, Gibson’s results will suffer/benefit accordingly so once again we’ll turn to value. As a favorite Gibson has risk but as a pooch that’s very capable of breezing through a lineup because of his outstanding control and groundball rate, he’s very playable and that applies here.


Cincinnati +115 over MILWAUKEE

The Reds are healthy again and just took two of three from the Dodgers while outscoring them in the last two games, 9-1. That was against Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu and now the Reds take a step down in class when facing Matt Garza. Frankly, we have no interest in Garza whatsoever as the chalk and neither should you. Garza’s poor surface stats (4.42 ERA – 1.35 WHIP) are well supported by his poor under the surface stats. In his last start, Garza walked five and struck out one. His groundball rate has been in decline for three years running and is now at 38% after 13 starts. Garza has allowed three runs or more in seven of his past eight starts and he’s been able to pick up some wins because of the outstanding run support he’s received. That could definitely change here.

One of the unchecked boxes on Homer Bailey’s profile heading into 2014 was consistency. Big talent; yes. Pedigree and arsenal; no doubt. Flashes of brilliance; certainly. But could he ever put it together for a whole season? He did so in 2013 but he has struggled mightily so far in 2014. Before you jump ship, take note of the outstanding skills that Bailey possesses that has been masked by extreme bad luck. No starter has a worse combination of hit % and hr/f misfortune than Bailey: 42% hit%, 29% hr/f. Fact is, Bailey has a strong BB/K split of 25/70 in 78 innings. He also has an outstanding 53%/18%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. If that’s not enough, he has an above average swing and miss rate of 12% to go along with an xERA of 3.48, which is more than a full run lower than his actual ERA. Buy low targets don’t get much better than this and we’re all over it.


Kansas City +119 over CHICAGO

The Royals have won four in a row and have outscored the opposition 23-11 over that span. Kansas City represents one of those odd anomalies in the game in that they have the third best road BA in the AL but they have the third worst road SLG in the league. That doesn’t make a lot of sense but those things even out over time and it suggests that the Royals may be on the verge of scoring plenty more. They’ll now face Jose Quintana in this hitter’s park. Over the past two seasons, Quintana has a 4.11 ERA against the Royals in five starts. Quintana’s lack of a dominant offering is offset by his four-pitch mix and strong command vs. both LH and RH bats. Quintana will rarely dominate and he’ll rarely throw a disaster but the South Side has lost seven of Quintana's past 10 games and one of those defeats was back in Kansas City on May 21. Quintana is serviceable but we would not trust him as the chalk in this spot.

Jeremy Guthrie is not high on anyone’s list of dependable starting pitchers. For whatever reason, however, Guthrie has put up some solid numbers against this group. In fact, in 267 combined AB’s, current White Sox have just 59 hits against Guthrie for a BA of just .221. The Royals have one of the major’s best pens and that certainly adds to their appeal here. The Royals always seem to play well at U.S. Cellular. They’ve won seven of the past eight games at this venue and now they’re heating up heading into the opener of this series. Great value on a very live pooch.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Andrew Lange   

Colorado at San Francisco
Play: Colorado +125

Tim Linceum has had a wild season with performances ranging from stellar to awful. We've seen a 12 strikeout, 24 swinging strike performance as well as an 8 earned run, 4 swinging strike performance. All told there isn't much fluky about his near 5.00 season ERA. And the schedule has been generous with eight of his 13 starts at home as well as starts against weak hitting St. Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, New York, and San Diego. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa meanwhile has been rock solid. After a rough start to the season he's settled down and produced a 2.78 ERA over his last 10 starts – six of those at Coors Field. And the four outings on the highway were stellar with 25 IP and only six earned runs. The value on this play stems from San Francisco's unsustainable start to the season and Colorado's well documented home/road splits. That has driven the price in this game to above -135 when the starting pitching matchup suggests it should be closer to that of a pick 'em. This becomes an auto play to get +125 with what is in my opinion a significant starting pitcher edge. Take Colorado.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Bob Balfe

LA Angels -110

There is something off with this Braves team right now. They couldn’t hit some unproven pitchers in a hitters ball park in Colorado and now return home having to face CJ Wilson. Both pitchers have just about equal numbers this year, but these Braves can’t hit right now. At even money this feels like a great bargain. Take the Angels

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Hollywood Sports

New York Rangers at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: New York Rangers

New York finally caught some "puck-luck" breaks with their 2-1 victory on Wednesday despite being outshot by a whopping 41-19 margin -- including 15-1 in the third period as well as surviving two pucks that stopped milimeter(s) away from breaking the goal crease. The fact remains that the Rangers probably outplayed the Kings in the first two games of this series in LA. Furthermore, the ironic thing is that Los Angeles' best played game was probably in their Game Four loss. That's hockey -- and between two teams pretty evenly matched, the opportunity to take one of them as an underdog at +150 or better is a good bargain. Even better, combine New York with an Over/Under play (and I love the Totals play for this contest) for low investment-high reward two team parlay.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Tony George

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Houston Astros +114

Is this a trap line I was asked on national radio on Yahoo Sports today?  The answer is NO to that question.  Houston in fact was a total bottom feeder for most of the season but have risen from the ashes and they sport the best 10 game record in the West as of late winning 7 out of 10 and they have their ace on the hill tonight at home and they are listed by oddsmakers as an underdog.  Apparently oddsmakers fell asleep at the wheel in the getaway car on this one. I can look no other way than the Astro’s tonight in this matchup from pitching, bullpen, hitting and momentum.   

Why Tampa with Alex Cobb on the hill is a -123 favorite just baffles me.  His last 3 starts have resulted in him getting lit up like a Christmas Tree with a whopping 9.39 ERA.  Conversely McHugh for Houston has less than a 3 ERA on the season and in his last 3 mound appearances he has been in great form with a 1.65 ERA.  Add in the fact the D Rays bats overall as a team in their last 5 games has been a paltry .189 performance at the plate, versus Houston who has been on fire with a team average .293 at the plate, and I cannot make a case for Alex Cobb getting run support tonight against the red hot Stro’s.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Jeff Alexander

Padres/Mets Under 7

San Diego has really struggled at the plate on the road and New York has really struggled at home.  Neither of these soft offenses figure to get much done against a pair of pitchers in good form.  The Padres are batting .214 and averaging just 2.9 runs per game on the road.  The Mets are batting .216 and averaging 3.1 runs per game at home.  San Diego's Cashner has a 2.13 ERA on the season and a 1.59 ERA over his last 3 starts.  New York's Colon has a 2.31 home ERA and a 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The UNDER is 45-17-4 in the Padres' last 66 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 14-3 in Cashner's last 17 starts.  The UNDER is 23-8-3 in the Mets' last 34 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Dave Price

Kansas City Royals +120

The Royals have won four straight, and I look for them to keep rolling in Chicago where they have won seven of the last eight meetings.  Kansas City scheduled starter Guthrie has had a ton of success against the White Sox, and the Royals are 9-2 in his last 11 starts against them as a result.  They are a perfect 4-0 in his starts in Chicago during this span.  Chicago's Quintana hasn't had as much success against the Royals.  The Sox are 2-6 lifetime in his starts against them, including 0-3 at home.  The White Sox are 0-9 in Quintana's last nine starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 15-6 in their last 21 road games versus a left-handed starter.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Angels -106

The Angels are playing some really good ball of late. The offense is back at full strength which means they might jump from their current spot of 4th in runs. This weekend they are up in Atlanta and lefty C.J. Wilson gives them a great shot to get a victory Friday night. For me he is their best pitcher and I will take every chance I can get to fade Aaron Harang with the Braves, who got hammered the last two out in Colorado.  That kind of stuff can linger.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Michael Alexander

Twins vs. Tigers
Plaay: Over 9

The Tigers face Minnesota pitcher Gibson tonight. Previously they got him for 6 runs in only 2 innings of work. He's had starts on the road that have produced 7, 6, 5, and 4 runs. The Tigers are good against right-handed pitching, hitting .269 as a team. In addition the Twins are 36-25 O/U and the Tigers are 33-26 O/U. The OVER is 10-2 in Gibson's last ten road starts, and the OVER is 17-5-1 in the Tigers last 23 games overall.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

LT Profits

Texas vs Seattle
Pick: Under 6.5

The combination of a Cy Young Award candidate as a weak offense in a spacious stadium should yield a very low scoring game when the Texas Rangers visit the Seattle Mariners. Felix Hernandez already won a Cy Young for Seattle in 2010 and he could be on his way to a second award as he is a spiffy 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a great ratio of 106 strikeouts vs. just 17 walks in 98 innings! Granted, Texas starter Nick Tepesch is struggling at 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA, but he is facing a Seattle offense batting a woeful .192 vs. right-handers here at home while averaging only 3.15 runs per game against them, and the Mariners are one lineup that Tepesch has handled allowing three runs or less his last three starts against them. The ‘under’ is 7-0 in the Mariners’ last seven games with the total set at 6½ or lower.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Dave Essler

Nationals / Cardinals Over 7

It's interesting that this still sits at 7, which is obviously a very key number. Both starters have "names", but a closer look at Zimmermans' last two games show that even with two shutouts, not only did he throw a bunch of pitches, but he did it against the Padres and the Phillies, two teams with little or no direction and playing poorly. The Cardinals, who are rested (meaning also that the lineup should be the "A" one) have actually fared pretty well against him, too. And of course Washington, until yesterday, had been hitting well. Both bullpens can be suspect, but in the end, given the weather and the lineups, a 3-3 game is a push at worst.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Brady Kannon

Cincinnati +108

Three pronged attack here on this one as I like how Bailey has been pitching more so that Garza this season. Secondly, it doesn't hurt that The Brewers went the distance and then some with The Mets in New York on Thursday while The Reds got out with a win quick and easy. Finally, I believe the public bettor will jump on Milwaukee here and the price may get even healthier.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Larry Ness

Rockies at Giants
Pick: Over

San Francisco has dominated Colorado here at AT&T Park, winning 15 of the last 18 meetings. The Rockies had lost 11 of 12 prior to winning their last two against visiting Atlanta, including 10-3 on Thursday. Their offensive production in the last three games is reminiscent of the start of the season as they've scored 28 runs. As for the Giants, they will be out to complete a 10-game homestand on a positive note. It started toward that with Thursday's 7-1 victory over Washington to salvage one of four in the series, leaving them 4-3 with this series to go

Tim Lincecum (5-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 13 starts) takes the mound seeking victories in consecutive starts for the first time this season. He allowed three runs in six innings of Sunday's 6-4 win over the New York Mets, although a series of troubling numbers still remain for this two-time Cy Young winner. Lincecum's 1.54 WHIP and .276 opponents batting average are higher than any season totals in the previous SEVEN years of his career. Despite his less than spectacular pitching, the Giants have had success with him on the mound, winning NINE times in his 13 starts.

Lincecum will be opposed by Jorge De La Rosa, who is trying to avoid losing three straight starts for the first time since September 21-Oct. 1, 2010. De La Rosa (6-5, 4.04 ERA) surrendered five runs and four hits while issuing a season-high four walks and striking out a season-best eight in 5.1 innings of Sunday's 6-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Expecting him to pitch well here seems like a stretch. He’s struggled “big time” in San Francisco lately, going 0-4 with an 8.59 ERA in his last five starts.

Expect this final to reach double digits, so going over 7 is a “no-brainer!”

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Bruce Marshall

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Many suspected the Blue Jays were playing a bit over their heads the first two months of the season, and now things seem to be falling back to earth in quick order for Toronto. The Blue Jays' offense has stalled, scoring nine runs and batting .208 while losing five of six. Meanwhile, the O's continue to get stellar starting pitching, with Kevin Gausman the latest to impress in Thursday's -2 win, as he became the 11th starter in 14 games to allow two or fewer earned runs, with the rotation pitching to a 1.40 ERA in those 11 games. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't been a main contributor lately, but the Baltimore momentum is worth capturing tonight at Camden Yards as the O's try to cut further into Toronto's AL East lead.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Harry Bondi

CHICAGO CUBS (-105) over Philadelphia

Tough extra inning loss for the FREE game yesterday so let's bounce back today by going against one of baseball's worst pitchers. Philadelphia's Roberto Hernandez has lost his last 3 starts and has posted a 5.06 ERA this season. He lasted only four innings his last time out and that is nothing new for the righthander. He is 6-15 in his last 21 decisions dating back to last year. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta is coming off his best outing of the season. He matched his season high with seven strikeouts and limited Miami to three hits and no runs over six innings. Philly is playing well but still has one of the worst team batting averages in baseball and Arrieta quiets them again today. Take the Cubbies.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 13

Nelly

Padres / Mets Under

Andrew Cashner has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his 10 starts this season, featuring a 2.13 ERA. The hard-throwing right-hander missed nearly a month due to elbow pain but in his first start back in action last week he was sharp with just two hits allowed in six innings of shutout ball. Despite issues in yesterday's game in Philadelphia, San Diego has featured one of the best bullpens in baseball this season with a 2.61 season ERA. The Mets are batting just .220 on the season against right-handed pitching and that average slips to just .213 over the last 10 games. New York has lost eight of the last nine games with four or fewer runs scored in each loss and fatigue could set in after a long extra-innings game last night. San Diego has some of the worst offensive numbers in baseball and over the last 10 games the Padres are batting just .143 as a team with fewer than 1.7 runs per game on average. Veteran Bartolo Colon has been pitching extremely well after some inconsistency early in the season as he has allowed just five earned runs over his last four starts. Colon has walked just 12 batters all season, featuring a better than 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and at Citi Field his ERA is just 2.30 with a 1.02 WHIP on the season. The 'under' is 9-3 in the last 12 San Diego games and 21-9 in San Diego road games. Citi Field has averaged only 6.7 runs per game this season with the 'under' going 19-11 and the third worst ballpark OPS in MLB.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44822
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
280731
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.9
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3560
Newest User:
Derek
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2340

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com