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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 14

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 14

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Washington at St. Louis
The Cardinals continue their series tonight against Washington and come into the contest with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games as a home underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110).

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 13.569; Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under

Game 953-954: Colorado at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bergman) 15.330; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.428
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Over

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.068; Miami (Wolf) 15.718
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-110); Under

Game 957-958: San Diego at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hahn) 15.469; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.553
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.003; St. Louis (Miller) 16.213
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Over

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.094; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.119
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under

Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 16.512; LA Dodgers (Haren) 14.225
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over

Game 965-966: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 15.067; White Sox (Noesi) 16.646
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under

Game 967-968: Cleveland at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 16.688; Boston (Peavy) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over

Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 17.623; Baltimore (Norris) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under

Game 971-972: Minnesota at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 17.312; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over

Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.103; Houston (Cosart) 13.641
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.727; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.682
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+150); Over

Game 977-978: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 14.620; Seattle (Ramirez) 15.951
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Atlanta (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 17.014; Atlanta (Floyd) 15.834
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Los Angeles at San Antonio
The Sparks head to San Antonio tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games versus the Stars. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2).

Game 651-652: Los Angeles at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 118.361; San Antonio 113.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Under

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Marc Lawrence

England vs Italy
Play: Draw

Rumble in the jungle. Literally. These longtime rivals are playing the first of four World Cup group stage matches in Manaus, a city in the middle of the Amazon rainforest.  England and Italy have been trading corner kicks for decades but this fixture will have them sweating bullets. Temperatures reaching 90 degrees is nothing out of the ordinary for the Brazilian hot spot. The players might be gasping for air by halftime. The key to wagering on this contest can be found in both club's WC records. Italy leads all tourney teams in draws with 21. England is second (along with Germany) with 19 stalemates. We recommend a 1-unit play on the game ending in a draw.

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Alex Smart

Italy vs. England    
Play: Draw +200 

The Lions have a great deal of heart, hunger, desire, and a team spirit unmatched in all of football. The English also have tactical and technical abilities as well, but have a  tendency to play direct football. As most know , key words in world cup soccer for England always seems to center around- bad luck. Meanwhile, Cesare Prandelli has helped revolutionize the way the Italians on a international level approach a game and the style of play that is being implemented.  The Azzurri put a great deal of emphasis on ball control and  possession , and quite often field four playmakers in a diamond formation.  Alot of young players with speed are used in attacking positions – but that inexperience in the final stages of a game means Italy will instead be prone to depend to heavily on the Juventus-inspired backline. With that said, Im expecting and betting on this being a hard fought affair, with the English (as per usual) missing key opportunities at the most importune time, and the Italians to continue to do all the right things except when it comes to finishing.


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Red Dog Sports

Greece vs. Colombia    
Play: Under 2

Greece is a very solid defensive team. Colombia will try to push the pace and score a goal and then focus more on preventing Greece from reaching the back of the net. I think we see a 1-0 game and a 0-0 draw would not shock me.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Greece +440 over Columbia

An exciting showdown between the #8 ranked Colombians and 12th ranked Greece. Colombia came to the FIFA World Cup by way of exceptional play in their CONMEBOL qualification leg. Los Cafeteros have been able to force draws with Argentina and defeat Uruguay and Ecuador. Most recently, in an international friendly, the Colombians were able to procure an impressive 2-0 victory over highly touted Belgium. It is clearly indicative that Colombia can contend against top flight squads but they are overpriced here against this outstanding defensive opponent. 

What is shocking is the disparity between Colombia and Greece by the oddsmakers. This is rather overwhelming considering Greece comes from the pedigree of UEFA qualification, accumulating twenty-five points on their way to qualification. Greece attained a berth to the 2014 World Cup by virtue of a play-off with Romania, where Greece emerged victorious in the aggregate. The thorn in the Greek side was an underrated Bosnia and Herzegovnia club. The Greeks allowed just four goals in their 10 group-stage games, three of which came in a single match against group winner, Bosnia. In typical Greek style, they won six qualifiers 1-0. Expect the Greeks to be as stingy as ever and give them a legit shot of pulling this upset.

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Cajun Sports

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles +100

The Orioles have dominated this series of late going 25-19 versus the Blue Jays the last three seasons and 15-7 when they host the Jays the last three years. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.27 runs in favor of the host Orioles on Saturday. A check of our powerful database reveals a league-wide system that is active for this contest. We want to Play ON MLB underdogs in this price range with a starter whose team won the last time he took the bump. This system has a record of 393-404 SU for a profit of +2394 Units.

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Brandon Shively

Washington Nationals vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Washington Nationals -120

Strasburg is in great form currently, and I like the Nationals with him on the mound. Strasburg comes into this game with a 0.79 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. the Cardinals (25 K/ 3 BB). Washington has won 2 out of these 3 starts, including a 3-2 win this year on 4/20 when he was matched up vs. Miller. Washington has now won Stras's last 3 starts and they are averaging 8.5 runs a game in these games. Strasburg has also allowed 3 ER or fewer in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Saint Louis continues to struggle on offense only scoring 3.7 runs a game. When they do get a lead, the bullpen tends to blow it. The Cardinals will have Shelby Miller on the rubber who walks WAY too many batters. Although his command has been better recently, this guy still struggles and tends to get way too lucky at times. Look for Washington to make him pay. With Washington now 8-2 their last 10 games and giving Strasburg plenty of run support, let's lay the small chalk on the road as the Nats are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.


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Jim Feist

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners

A division game and a long road trip to the Northwest for Texas. Texas hasn't been on the road in a while -- and they haven't been winning, either, just dropping 4 in a row this week, including a 17-7 loss at home! The Rangers are 2-11 in their last 13 during game 2 of a series. The Rangers' 44 homers are third-fewest in baseball, and they have a major league-leading 14 players on the DL. Joe Saunders may have a good ERA, but he's been getting hit hard, allowing 28 hits and 38 base runners in 20 innings. Opponents are hitting .326 off him! No wonder the team is 1-3 in his 4 starts. With a 1.84 WHIP Saunders is not the most reliable starter out there. The Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Seattle has an improved offense from a year ago and plays its 5th straight home game. The Mariners are 2-0 in the last 2 starts by Erasmo Ramirez and opponents are hitting .205 off him at home.

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Steve Janus

Milwaukee Brewers -125

This is a great spot to jump on the Brewers at home with veteran ace Yovani Gallardo on the mound. Gallardo has had his ups and downs in 2014, but he comes in off a brilliant start at Pittsburgh, where he held the Pirates to just 4 hits with a season-high 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. Not only do we get the Brewers at a great price with a confident Gallardo on the mound, but Cincinnati's Mat Latos will be making his first start of the season. There's no denying that Latos is one of the top pitchers when he's on, but rarely do we see a starter come out and dominant after missing this much action. I look for Latos to be no where close to his full potential and you have to believe he will be on a limited pitch count, which is a key factor to note given the Reds bullpen has a 4.27 ERA and 1.436 WHIP on the road this season.

Key Trends - Milwaukee is 10-4 in Gallardo's last 14 starts against a division opponent, 36-15 in his last 51 starts when listed as a home favorite and 5-1 in his last 6 starts after throwing 120+ pitches in his last outing.

System -  Any team (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings are 177-119 (60%) over the last 5 seasons.

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Jimmy Boyd

Houston Astros +102

Houston heads into Friday's series opener against the Rays playing nothing like the team we have seen stink up baseball the past few years. The Astros are 14-5 over their last 19 games and are just 6-games under .500 on the season. Despite their strong play of late, Houston continues to be undervalued by the books because of how bad they were in the past.

I believe there's a ton of value on the Astros in Saturday's matchup against the Rays, who are getting way too much respect for what they have done in previous years. Tampa Bay is 17-games under .500 on the season going into Friday's contest and are just 2-14 over their last 16 games overall.

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston in this one, as the Rays Chris Archer has a history of not performing well on the road. Archer is just 1-2 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.451 WHIP over 7 road starts in 2014. While Archer allowed just 5 hits over 6 1/3 shutout innings in his last start, Tampa Bay is 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a quality start and just 1-4 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite.

Houston counters with Jared Cosart, who has a strong 3.57 ERA and 1.245 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Cosart held the Diamondbacks to just 3 runs on 5 hits with 8 strikeouts in his last outing and the Astros are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start.

AL road teams who are hitting .260 or worse on the season against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are just 13-30 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Astros.

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Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Cubs clash at Citizen's Bank Park Saturday afternoon in Game Two of this 3-game set where Edwin Jackson toes the slab for Chicago. That's not particularly good news for the Cubbies considering his 2-12 team start mark with a 6.39 ERA in his last fourteen road efforts. It coincides with his 6.10 ERA away as opposed 3.22 at home this season. With that we recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

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Footy Tipster

Colombia vs. Greece
Pick: Over

Colombia take on Greece in what is practially a home game for the South American side!

We expect goals here and this play should romp home!

Alot of people are under-rating the Greeks! I would not write them off just yet. They are a side who can show up in the big tournaments and prove the doubters wrong.

This said I do feel the Colombians will shade this one but there is no value backing them. Instead we like the look of Over 2 Goals @ -105 with 5Dimes!

This play is a generous price and one which we'll be taking to boost our kitty!

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DAVE COKIN

WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
PLAY: WASHINGTON NATIONALS -120

There’s very little to choose between the Nats and the Cardinals as far as the standings and some other keys are concerned. I think it’s fair to say that neither team has been as strong as they’re expected to be, but there’s still a whole lot of baseball to be played. As far as tonight goes, I can see ample reasoning to support a call on the visitors.

The Nationals look like they’re rounding into the form necessary to be a playoff team. They’re still without Bryce Harper, but there’s just no question that getting Ryan Zimmerman back on the field is a huge plus for this team. Zimmerman is obviously a solid player in terms of his offensive numbers, but I really feel his value to this team can’t be measured on the stats alone. It’s not a coincidence that Washington’s fortunes have improved since Zimmerman came off the disabled list.

I’m not really sure there’s just one thing that has prevented the Cardinals from taking off and assuming command of the NL Central. But if there’s going to be any finger pointing, it has to be toward the offense. The Redbirds haven’t been putting together many explosive outings and the clutch factor that was so prevalent last season has been most missing in action this time around.

I see these teams pretty even on the team factor checklist, so to me the big key tonight is the starting pitching. Stephen Strasburg is pitching at a very high level right now. Considering the state of the St. Louis offense, it’s difficult to envision the Redbirds doing much tonight. Strasburg is on a roll and he could well overmatch this opponent.

The Nats aren’t exactly killers with the sticks themselves, but I like their chances against Shelby Miller. If Miller throws like he did last outing, Washington won’t do much. But Miller has not been consistent at all this season, and off his first career complete game shutout I’m willing to bet on a bounce taking place.

The warmer team with the better pitcher by what appears to be a significant margin looks like a recipe for success and the price, while not a bargain by any means, isn’t at all outlandish. I’ll lend my support to the Nationals tonight.

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SPORTS WAGERS

England vs. Italy to Draw +202

This is another European showdown that will certainly shape the outcome of Group D. The English and the Italians most recently met in 2012 at the EURO Tournament, where England would fall to Italy 4-2. The Italians are led by Andrea Pirlo, Daniele De Rossi and legendary goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Buffon was the catalyst and foundation of the 2006 championship run capped by off by Italy surrendering only one goal in the tournament. Pirlo is the secret weapon of Italy and he is a great concern for the English, who may be without Arsenal’s Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for the duration of the tournament. Both these teams are mirrored in rankings and have the potential to go deep in to the tournament. This opening contest is a tone setter for both squads and may feature a fair amount of quality chances and opportunities for both ends to mark.

However, this contest has every prospect of seeing multiple or no equalizers. The odds favor Italy to win this match-up by virtue of past accomplishments and recent matches but the English have Joe Hart, Daniel Sturridge and Frank Lampard. This is just the tip of the iceberg of talent that the English have on their squad entering this World Cup. Unmistakably, this contest will be a deciding factor for both teams that should earn a win against Costa Rica and be faced with the challenge of squaring off with South America’s most recently successful club, Uruguay. A win for either side can guarantee advancement in to the next round but in a game with two very equal clubs, the draw is where the value lies.

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Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -155

The Giants were stunned last night at home as Colorado put together a 5 run top of the 9th inning. Things should get back to normal tonight. The Giants are 25-8 here vs Colorado and 11-2 at home off a home favored loss where they scored 4 or less runs. San Francisco is 18-6 in Day games and 13-1 as a home favorite from -150 to -175. So they get the job done in this range. The Rockies are 1-11 on the road off a road win if they scored 5 or more runs. They have Christian Bergman making his road debut tonight in a Tough venue. He will be taking on B. Vogelsong who is 6-1 at home in his June starts the last few seasons and 4-1 at home vs Colorado allowing just 7 runs in 33 innings. Look for the Giants to wipe away the bitter last from last night loss.


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MMA OddsBreaker

Phillips/Letourneau OVER 2.5 (-255) with Jimmo/St. Preux OVER 2.5 (-150)

Both Elizabeth Phillips and Valerie Latourneau are making their respective UFC debuts on Saturday night. Women's MMA bouts have a significantly higher percentage of going the distance (unless you're Ronda Rousey) and don't be surprised to see this fight go all three rounds either. Phillips is the bigger, stronger fighter, but she's still a work in progress and will likely use her strength and grappling edge to either keep this fight in the clinch or on the ground. We fully expect the bout to go over 2.5 rounds.

Ryan Jimmo and Ovince St. Preux are both talented light heavyweights, but Jimmo has a storied history of going the distance in his bouts. Jimmo has shown increased knockout ability lately, but that was against significantly overmatched competition and St. Preux is a much more competitive bout for him. St. Preux should hold a wrestling edge and likes to work for submissions on the ground, but Jimmo should be savvy enough to avoid getting tapped out. There's a good chance this fight becomes a more drawn out affair so we like the over 2.5 rounds here as well for a decent plus-money parlay

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Art Aronson

New York Yankees vs. Oakland A's    
Play: Oakland A's -160

The Yankees won the first game of this series in blowout fashion but I think the script gets flipped on Saturday. New York will send Hiroki Kuroda (4-4, 4.12 ERA) to the hill; Kuroda allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Kuroda has posted an unremarkable 1-2, 3.19 ERA record in five lifetime starts against the Athletics. The A’s will look to bounce back by sending Scott Kazmir (7-2, 2.20  ERA) to the hill; the southpaw continues to impress this season after throwing seven shutout innings in an Oakland win over Baltimore last Sunday. Kazmir has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts and is 3-1 at home with a stingy 1.69 ERA thus far. Even with the loss yesterday the Athletics still have the best record in the AL and have posted a ridiculous run differential that clearly shows they have been the most dominant team in the majors to date. Oakland is still 7-4 at home against the Yankees the past three seasons, consider laying the price.


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Matt Fargo

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers    
Play: Cincinnati Reds +119

The Reds are on a bit of a mini roll as they have won three straight games which may not seem like a big deal but it has been a tough start to the season and a win tonight can match their season high winning streak. Cincinnati is also riding a four-game road winning streak and they look to keep that going as well. After an incredible start to the season, the Brewers have come back to earth as they are 13-13 over their last 26 games and on the season they are 19-14 at home which is not overly dominating. Cincinnati sends Mat Latos to the mound for his first start of the season and while backing a pitcher in his first start can be tricky, we are catching a solid number on an above average starter. He tossed 5.2 innings of one-run ball Monday in a rehab start with Triple-A Louisville, reporting no issues with his elbow, calf, or knee. Last season, he went 14-7 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 32 starts and going back, the Reds are 19-7 in Latos' last 26 starts against teams with a winning record. The Brewers counter with Yovani Gallardo and after posting a 2.27 ERA in five April starts, he has not been nearly as good, putting up a 5.40 ERA over his last seven starts. His ERA is over .400 at home and he struggled in his only start against the Reds this season, allowing four runs on nine hits in six innings.


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Andrew Lange 

Kansas City at Chicago
Play: Chicago -110

I don't think Chicago's Hector Noesi is as bad as his overall numbers (5.40 ERA) suggest. Remember, this guy is pitching for this third team this season which isn't exactly ideal for one's psyche. Now that he's settled in on the South Side, it appears that White Sox pitching coach/guru Don Cooper has made an impact with Noesi who shows a solid 3.86 ERA over his last seven starts. And it should be pointed out that if you take away two outings against powerful Detroit, Noesi has been nearly automatic in the quality start department. Bottom line is he’s a 6 IP, 3/4 ER guy but with the potential to be far better this afternoon facing one of the worst offenses in the American League. Kansas City's Danny Duffy is slowly getting back into form after arm problems cut short his 2013 season. At times Duffy has been effective but he's also flashing numerous red flags. For starters his K per 9 rate is a modest 6.32 and his walk rate is a scary 4.02. Throw in a .217 BABIP, 31.9% GB rate in Cellular Field, and a 4.93 xFIP and all of a sudden Noesi looks like the more attractive of the two starting pitchers. Yes, the Royals are starting to hit a bit more but I think there is more potential here from the home side. Afternoon start but no rush as the market's support is projected to come in on Duffy and KC. Anything close to even money on the home side worth a play.

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