Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 24

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Indiana at Miami
The Pacers head to Miami for Game 3 and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Indiana is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7).

Game 509-510: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.673; Miami 126.394
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 182
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7); Over

NHL

Chicago at Los Angeles
The Blackhawks look to bounce back from their 6-2 loss in Game 2 as they head to LA tonight where they are 7-2 in their last 9 games versus the Kings. Chicago is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+110).

Game 11-12: Chicago at Los Angeles (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.875; Los Angeles 11.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+110); Over

WNBA

Atlanta at Chicago
The Sky play host to an Atlanta team that is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games. Chicago is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2).

Game 651-652: Seattle at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 104.107; Washington 113.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 9; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: New York at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.131; Minnesota 121.715
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Atlanta at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.914; Chicago 110.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Cincinnati
The Reds (22-24) look to follow up their 5-3 win over St. Louis last night as they face a Cardinals team that is 2-8 in Jaime Garcia's last 10 road starts against a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115).

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.181; Philadelphia (Buchanan) 14.551
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 15.783; Atlanta (Minor) 14.991
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.041; Miami (Turner) 16.185
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-110); Under

Game 907-908: Arizona at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.177; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.098
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 14.274; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.879
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 911-912: Washington at Pittsburgh (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.571; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.055
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Under

Game 913-914: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 14.883; San Diego (Buckner) 15.884
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 15.067; Toronto (Dickey) 16.123
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.737; White Sox (Danks) 14.037
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Texas at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 15.819; Detroit (Porcello) 14.946
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.819; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.733
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 14.883; Baltimore (Jimenez) 15.736
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Under

Game 925-926: Kansas City at LA Angels (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.759; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 15.501
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under

Game 927-928: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.961; Seattle (Maurer) 13.962
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Over

Game 929-930: Minnesota at San Francisco (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 15.847; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.928
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under

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LT Profits

Indiana vs Miami
Pick: Heat -6.5

The Miami Heat showed up for Game 2 vs. the Indiana Pacers, and they stole the road game that they needed to seize home court advantage in this series. We do not look for Miami to relinquish that advantage en route to a fourth straight NBA Finals appearance, so our first assumption is that the Heat will win this game outright. The question becomes can they win by more than seven points, and we do not see why not, especially if Paul George feels any effects from the concussion he suffered Tuesday. The last time the Pacers visited Miami during the season, the Heat led by three points at halftime before pulling away to lead by 18 points in the second half before coasting home by 12. The stakes are higher here but the result should be the same. The Pacers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games vs. teams with winning straight up records.

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Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles

I have a pending series bet on the Kings to advance in their Conference Final match-up against Chicago. It was no surprise to see L.A. earn a split in the first two games in Chicago, and I expect to see them take care of business as the series shifts to the Staples Center.

Everything I had to say before the series still applies, here is an excerpt from my analysis:

"The Kings must feel as though they can't be beaten, having faced elimination six time already this post-season, and living to tell about it. Coming off consecutive Game 7 victories, both on the road, it sure looks as though this team is destined to go all the way.
The 2012 Stanley Cup champs will have their work cut out for them facing the defending champion Hawks. Chicago sent the Kings packing in five games in last year's Western Conference Final, but I expect it to be a different story this time around.

This time it's the Kings that appear to be the hungrier of the two teams, and the addition of Marian Gaborik is paying dividends. Gaborik was responsible for a game tying goal with seven seconds left on the clock in Game 1 versus the Ducks, and he went on to score the overtime winner.

It's tough to say that the Kings are more talented than the Hawks, because they are not. Corey Crawford has looked every bit as good as Jonathan Quick, and there's no better duo than Toews and Kane.

The Kings though might be a little deeper, a little bigger and tougher. They are playing with a fire and passion that opponents have yet to match. I just can't see this incredible run ending here in the conference final."


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Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Tribe takes on the Orioles at Camden Yards Saturday afternoon in Game Three of this four-game series they will send Corey Kluber to the mound against ex-mate Ubaldo Jimenez. If there were any one pitcher the Tribe would love to take down it would be Jimenez, who took the money and ran to Baltimore during the off-season. With Kluber in great KW form with 39 strikeouts and 5 walks in his last four starts, and Jimenez 0-4 at home with the Birds, look for the Indians to go on the attack today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

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Footy Tipster

D.C. United vs. New England
Pick: New England

New England are top of the East League, 2 points ahead of DC United. New England have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home games, W3D1. DC United have only won once away from home this season.  A Home win here looks to be the value pick!

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Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Colorado Rockies +120

Colorado is in town with the best offense in baseball, tops in runs scored, slugging and on base percentage. Starter Juan Nicasio has walked only 15 in 51 innings and the team is 6 of 9 starts. Nicasio tossed six innings, giving up four earned runs on nine hits while striking out two versus the Padres Sunday afternoon. The Rockies are 7-3 in Nicasio's last 10 starts. Heading into this outing, Nicasio had been turning in very solid work all month. Over his first three starts in May, the 27-year-old hurler put up a 1.50 ERA while holding opponents to a .164 batting average across 18 innings. The Rockies are 8-2 against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is terrible on offense, 29th in baseball in runs scored and on base percentage. They were favored at home against Milwaukee Wednesday and lost 6-1. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. the National League West. Lefty Mike Minor (3.80 ERA) is still working his way back after rehabbing from an injury and is 1-2 at home with a 5.29 ERA. The Braves are 3-7 in Minor's last 10 starts, so grab the visitors.

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TJ Masterline

Astros vs. Mariners    
Play: Over 7

Over is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings. Over is 7-1 in Barbers last 8 games behind home plate. Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 Saturday games. Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 7-2-2 in Astros last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 9-3-2 in Astros last 14 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 16-5-1 in Keuchels last 22 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 3-1-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. Over is 6-2-1 in Keuchels last 9 starts vs. American League West. Over is 5-2-1 in Keuchels last 8 starts as an underdog. Over is 15-6 in Keuchels last 21 road starts. Over is 5-2-1 in Keuchels last 8 starts overall. Over is 15-6 in Keuchels last 21 starts as a road underdog. Over is 7-3 in Keuchels last 10 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 9-4 in Keuchels last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 3-1-2 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 5-2-3 in Mariners last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 7-3-2 in Mariners last 12 games as a home favorite. Over is 15-7-3 in Mariners last 25 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Over is 3-1-1 in Maurers last 5 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 3-1-1 in Maurers last 5 home starts.

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Charlie Scott

St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St Louis Cardinals +104

I'll look for the Cardinals to bounce back off Friday Nights loss to the Reds. St Louis Starting Pitcher Garcia looked fairly sharp coming off an injury in his first start of the Season last week vs the Braves. The Braves got lucky to win in a game blown by the Cards bullpen. Garcia had good stuff throwing 83 pitches through 7 Innings. PLAY 1 UNIT ON CARDINALS !


Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Washington Nationals -116

What a difference a year makes ! A Year ago in the same matchup Strasburg and the Nats probably would have been at least a -180 Favorite. While Stasburg and the Nats aren't getting the media attention they used to, Strasburg of 2014 still has good stuff, This Years Stats include 16 Base on Balls to 74 Strike Outs and a WHIP of 1.29. This price makes Strasburg look cheap. PLAY 1 UNIT NATS Ps- Specify Strasburg

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Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play:Washington Nationals -110

Washington has their ace in Stephen Strasburg on the mound and he has won both career starts here in Pittsburgh. Washington has won 6 of his last 8 road starts in May allowing 6 runs in 30 innings. He will face Pirates right G. Cole who has decent numbers but not as tight as Strasburg. The Nationals are 20-7 as a road favorite off a road loss. For the Power system we note that road favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs have won 20 of 20 the last 10+ seasons vs an opponent off a 1 run home favored win and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits with no errors. Look for Washington to bounce back and win this one.

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Bryan Power

LA Dodgers vs. Philadelphia
Pick: LA Dodgers

The Dodgers shut the Phillies out Friday night, winning 2-0, handing the home team is third consecutive loss. Philly is now a season low five games under .500, but honestly they're lucky to even be that close to the Mendoza Line considering a -32 run differential, which is bottom five in the league.....

After Clayton Kershaw shut this Phillies' lineup out yday, now it's Dan Haren's turn.  The righty is 5-2 (6-3 TSR) in nine starts w/ a 3.18 ERA and 1.235 WHIP.  He may be off his worst outing of the season, but Philadelphia has lost 7 of 10 overall and been shut out three different times during that span.

The Phillies have not been an effective home team to this point, going 8-13 here at Citizens Bank Park.  Of the six times they've been shut out this season, five have come at home.  With Cliff Lee injured, the club is forced to turn to David Buchanan this afternoon.  He'll be making his big league debut.

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Scott Spreitzer

Royals at Angels
Playn: Under

James Shields owns strong numbers in a dozen career starts against the Halos and he's thrown six quality starts in his last seven outings. The Angels counter with a righty of their own in Matt Shoemaker. The Angel hurler has made a quick memory of Hector Santiago, giving the Angels a viable replacement through his first 11 innings since replacing him. I expect the strong start to continue against a KC lineup that plates about 3.7 rpg on the road against right-handed pitchers. The start time of this game could also help our suggestion of a low scoring game. Many batters have spoken about the way the sun glares off the rock quarry in center field at the "Big A." Games that start between 3 PM and 5 PM local time have been tough on hitters since Angel Stadium was re-designed. While that's not the basis for this recommendation, it certainly doesn't hurt. The Angels are on a 4-1 Under run at home against right-handed starters, while the Royals are on a 4-0-1 Under run on the road when facing teams with a winning home record. I'm playing the Under between the Royals & Angels on Saturday.

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Dave Price

Kansas City Royals -104

One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against the Royals when they give the ball to James Shields.  They are 24-9 in his last 33 starts, and he's been at his best on the road.  Shields is 13-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his last 18 road outings.  The Royals are 16-5 in his last 21 road starts and 12-1 in his last 13 as a road favorite.  He's also had plenty of success versus the Angels.  His clubs are 9-3 all-time in his starts against them, including 4-0 in his last four.  He has a 2.89 ERA in his last nine starts versus the Halos.

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Chase Diamond

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Houston Astros -105

Two of the Pitchers with some of the worst stats in Baseball face off as the 17-32 Astros play the 24-23 Mariners. It tells you what Vegas thinks of Mariners starter Brandon Maurer when the Astros are a slight road favorite with the numbers of Brett Oberholtzer as he is 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA. Brandon Maurer is one of the worst starters in Baseball at 1-2 and a 6 ERA it's a wonder that the Mariners have no one to replace him. 55% of public cash are backing the Mariners but we are seeing the Sharps stand behind the Astros here and so will we, take the Astros.


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Bryan Leonard

Boston at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay

Neither team is hitting well at the moment but Price has been pitching much better than Peavy. In watching the former San Diego standout it's clear that even when he has success he's not the same pitcher. Even his outs are being hit hard and he's not getting the swings and misses that he is accustomed to. Not a big fan of laying high prices with teams not hitting, but we feel the Rays will find success today against Peavy.

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Kevin Thomas

Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Over 9½

Two struggling pitchers face off Saturday. Danks for the White Sox is 4-5 with an era of 5 against the AL. The Yankees batting average as a team is over 300 against Danks. Yanks counter with Nuno, he would be middle relief at best if not for all the injuries to the pitching staff.

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Jeff Alexander

Atlanta Braves -151

With yesterday's win, the Braves improved to 84-37 in their last 121 home games while the Rockies fell to 25-51 in their last 76 on the road.  Atlanta also improved to 9-1 in its last 10 versus Colorado, including 5-0 in the last 5.  The Braves are 39-14 in their last 53 at home in the series, including 7-0 in their last 7.  The Braves are 4-0 lifetime in Minor's starts versus the Rockies, who are just 15-41 in their last 56 road games versus left-handed starters.  Nicasio is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.82 in 4 starts versus Atlanta.

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DAVE COKIN

NEW YORK YANKEES AT CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PLAY: NEW YORK YANKEES -105

It’s a battle of lefties today in Chitown as the White Sox and Yankees continue their weekend series. Vidal Nuno will throw for the Yankees while the hosts will be represented by veteran southpaw John Danks.

The White Sox rallied for their fifth walk off win of the season last night. That’s the most of any team in baseball this season. My guess is the Pale Hose will have to come from behind again today if they want to walk away with another win over the Pinstripes.

Nuno has been erratic for the Yankees, but his better efforts have clearly come on the road. In fact, his away numbers so far are actually gaudy. In 12.1 IP, Nuno has surrendered only eight hits and one run. Granted, that’s a minuscule sample but it’s nevertheless pretty impressive. Nuno is also off a promising effort last time out at home against the Pirates. The lefty got no decision in that game, but showed good command of his pitches and put his team in position to get the eventual victory.

Danks is not pitching quite as badly as the 5.64 ERA indicates, but it’s pretty close. Here’s what it comes down to for the veteran lefty. When he’s on, he can hang in for six innings and keep his team in the hunt. But when he’s off, Danks can get very hard. There’s just not much room for error with what he’s throwing these days and that doesn’t bode well against a Yankees team that has absolutely torched lefties on the road so far this season.

Those Yankees stats against lefties on the road are impressive. They’re hitting better than .300 as a team and have scored a whopping 7.71 runs per nine innings in this situation. Contrast those digits with what the White Sox have done at home vs. southpaws and it’s a commanding edge here for the road team.

Even though the overall data is very close, I like Nuno to best Danks today. I also prefer the Yankees bullpen to that of the White Sox, and even though they’ve actually tailed off a bit lately, it’s impossible to overlook the situational offensive stats for the road team. It’s not a landslide, but when matching up the columns, most of the check marks here say the visitors should win, and at the current number, I like the Yankees enough to make a play that way.

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Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -174

The Tigers were able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a 7-2 win over the Rangers and I look for them to keep the winning going behind Rick Porcello. So much attention is paid to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, a lot of people don't realize Porcello is 7-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.006 WHIP over his first 8 starts. He's been even more danger at home, where he's 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.983 WHIP over 3 starts.

The Rangers will counter with Nick Martinez, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season. While Martinez has a respectable 3.37 ERA as a starter, his 1.437 WHIP is more telling of someone who has an ERA well above 4.00. That's exactly the case for Martinez on the road, where he's got a 4.09 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 2 starts. The other thing to keep in mind is that he doesn't have the stamina to go deep into the game, which should allow the Tigers to take advantage of a Texas bullpen that has a 5.94 ERA and 1.618 WHIP away from home.

Porcello is 20-5 in his last 25 starts against an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse, while the Rangers are 2-12 in their 14 games this season against a starter who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start. Take the Tigers!

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Jack Jones

Kansas City Royals +104

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value in Game 2 of this series with the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.  They should not be an underdog in this contest due to the massive edge they have on the mound as they send their ace out there tonight.

James Shields has proven to be an excellent addition to this rotation over the past two seasons.  He has picked up right where he left off last year, going 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 10 starts, including 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in six road starts.

Shields has had a ton of success in his career against this team, too.  The right-hander is 6-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles, and his teams have gone 9-3 in those contests.  He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of those 12 starts, and two earned runs or less in eight of them.

The Royals are 24-9 in Shields' last 33 starts overall.  Kansas City is 16-5 in Shields' last 21 road starts.  The Royals are 6-1 in Shields' last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kansas City Saturday.

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