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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers +113

The Brewers are showing value at this price considering they are 4-0 in their last four road games versus winning clubs and 10-4 in their last 14 as a road dog.  The Brew Crew also have the edge on the mound with Peralta, who has a 2.05 ERA on the season, a 1.38 ERA on the road and a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts.  The Beermakers are 7-3 in his last 10 starts overall and 4-0 in his last four starts in the underdog role.  Atlanta's Minor has a 4.24 ERA through three starts and a 6.97 ERA in a pair of home starts.  Going back to last season, the Braves are 2-7 in his last nine starts and 0-6 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Braves have lost three of Minor's four starts versus Milwaukee while the Brewers have won each of Peralta's two starts versus Atlanta.  Peralta has a 0.69 ERA in these two starts.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Jack Jones

Milwaukee Brewers +113

Great value here with the Milwaukee Brewers as an underdog to the Atlanta Braves Monday night.  They should not be an underdog with the advantage they have on the mound in this one, which tends to be the case almost every time they take the field with their starting staff this year.

Wily Peralta has been incredible thus far to say the least.  The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two road starts.  Better yet, Peralta is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Atlanta.

Mike Minor has really struggled this season for the Braves.  The left-hander has gone 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in two home starts.  He just does not appear to be all the way back to full strength off an injury quite yet.

The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  Milwaukee is 7-3 in Peralta's last 10 starts.  Atlanta is 2-7 in Minor's last nine starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in Minor's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Bet the Brewers Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Joe Duffy

Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Under 7

Drew Smyly has a 2.22 ERA in his last four. In his last three ERA and WHIP of 1.96 and 1.037. In two road starts it is 0.69 and 0.846. Corey Kluber’s last three trips to the bump ERA and WHIP of 2.08 and 0.877.

Their last seven games Detroit batting average and OBP of .254 and .302. In games versus left-handed starts Cleveland batting average and OBP of .213 and .281.

Detroit under 12-3 as underdogs, under 11-2 to teams with a losing record and 20-8 going back further.

Both pitchers are in a nice groove and the total is not a low one. It stays under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Brady Kannon

Houston +175

Two teams that are both playing very well right now and two pitchers on the hill tonight that are both about the best each team has to offer currently. This should be a good game and a close contest throughout. Neither bullpen is great, so both clubs will be relying on the starter to eat some innings. If we do get to the pens though, again, I believe the match up is still close. With the pitching looking to be nearly even, I feel it is worth a shot at such a high price to take a look at The Astros. The price here is reflective of what I believe is just the fact that it’s The Astros. Obviously it is not at all reflective of what pencils out to be a close match up. I would probably make the line closer to -150.. even if I am wrong by a few cents, this presents great value in my opinion.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

River City Sharps

LA Angels -1.5 +115

We really like the Angels tonight, but not enough for the expensive ML, so we’re going to take a shot with them via the RL tonight. Garrett Richards (4-0, 2.42 ERA) takes the mound for the Halos and will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel (4-2, 3.06 ERA) who has pitched very well for the Astros. That said, Richards has been really tough to hit this season and he actually faces the Astros in his first start this season. In that game, the Angels won 11-1 as he yielded one run and just three hits. We know that the Astros have been swinging the bats well, but Richards takes care of business tonight and we think the Angels are going to get to Keuchel early and often.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Jimmy Boyd

Thunder at Spurs
Play: Spurs -5.5

The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals. Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing. San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

Steve Rosen

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs    
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Thunder won all four regular-season meetings with the Spurs this season.Oklahoma City standout Kevin Durant posted nine 30-point outings while averaging 31.4 points during the first two rounds of the postseason and is hoping to lead the Thunder past San Antonio in the conference finals for the second time. Oklahoma City, which is the West finals for the third time in four seasons, defeated the Spurs in six games in 2012 to reach the NBA Finals.Each of Oklahoma City’s four regular-season victories against the Spurs were by six or more points, including two double-digit wins. OKC too hot not to take with points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 19

OC Dooley

Reds / Nationals Under 6.5

You will see at the bottom of this analysis that both of tonight’s starting pitchers are similar which would indicate that we are looking at a pitchers duel.  For those not aware both of Cincinnati’s middle-of-the-order sluggers (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce) are currently on the disabled list which has seriously cut into the team’s offensive production.  In the eight different games where Mike Leake has been the starting pitchers, the Reds offense has supported him with “only” a combined 24 runs which is one of the LOWEST run-support figures in all of baseball. This evening the Reds attack has to deal with Washington ace Stephen Strasburg (brilliant 1.89 ERA past five mound assignments) who has compiled one of the highest STRIKEOUT counts (70) in the majors.  Both Strasburg and tonight’s Cincinnati starter Mike Leake were both TOP-TEN picks back in the 20098 draft.  While the heavy-hyped Strasburg was picked #1 overall in that draft, Leake (current 3.09 ERA) was the #8 overall selection and has had on a more quiet level a solid professional career

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