MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 12
MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 12
MLB Betting News and Notes
By Dave Essler
Cubs-Cardinals: Obviously Wood is the Cubs best hope, and the Cardinal coming back from a late game in Pittsburgh, so as a matter of course it's the Cubs RL or nothing. Warm with a little breeze blowing slightly out (it looks like) so I'll be interested to see where this total goes. Obviously like 7 but doubt it gets there.
Washington-Arizona: D-Backs first game back from a decent road trip from Chicago and A's at the moment pounding the Nationals into submission. Have to wonder where Washington's heads' are at after the weekend, so it's POSSIBLE to look at the D-Backs. At 9 I'd like the under (roof probably closed) but that's about gone already.
Miami-Dodgers: A little surprised to see the Dodgers only -160 or so given the Miami road woes. But, Koehler has been almost un-hittable of late. The biggest problem I have is that he three-hit the Dodgers recently in Miami and the Dodgers should make adjustments. However, off a tough series with the Giants, this would't surprise me if it were the public disaster/parlay killer of the day.
Atlanta-Giants: Long flight for the Braves who finally scored a few runs against the Cubs, and the Giants coming home off the series with the Dodgers. Not sure what to do with a side here, but do think both teams get to three, somehow.
Angels-Toronto: Well, the Blue Jays could be one of our two losses out of seven on Sunday. Annoyed at the Mariners at the moment, who will be the other one. Almost have to think Wilson is the right side given Toronto's woes against LHP this season, but are they ever that easy. See Seattle. Buehrle quite capable. Perhaps some showers in the area and the roof closed, to perhaps the total might end up too high.
Detroit-Baltimore: Two teams going in the wrong direction on Sunday, and perhaps the Tigers' loss stung more. Of course not for us on the Twins, but it happens. I like Bud Norris and always have because he can keep the ball down, and Miggy hasn't hammered him. Key thing here is that Detroit gave him his worst outing of the season in the first game. Porcello is almost "due" to lose. He's given up flyball but been able to get away with it. Lean Orioles and maybe under.
Houston-Texas: Peacock is actually coming around an is no longer an auto fade. I don't mind taking teams like Houston in the first game back, especially after a win, because they have no expectations. Rangers going in the wrong direction. Always value in the over in Houston if the roof is open and it should be. But, neither team has seen much of the opposing starter. Maybe HST F5 here.
Chicago-Oakland: Wow that Jesse Chavez is a -180 pitcher. I guess he's earned it and the A's have seemingly woken back up while the White Sox have fallen asleep. Danks gives up a lot of long outs at times, but may get away with it in this huge park. He's fared well against the A's, so perhaps if Joe Q lets this go to 8 we could look at the under. Slight breeze out and fairly warm, so it's possible.
Seattle-Tampa Bay: One of our leans was the Indians who we left off on Sunday, in lieu of the Mariners, perhaps. Felix a little shaky last time out and it's obvious both teams have some back-end issues right now. Long flight for the Rays after a loss while the Mariners stew overnight. This ones' ALL on the starters, and I can't make a case for laying the price w/Felix yet. Ramos is probably not going to go more than five innings, so perhaps this is a F5 U bet.
Yankees-Mets: We've been fading the ageless one sans PED's and it's been quite profitable. Kuroda is also an old man whose best years seem to be behind him. He's been unimpressive this season, really, even at home. I might make a reasonable case for the over, since the Mets have actually been hitting the ball. We'll see.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 12
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- If you've been betting Travis Wood in all seven of his starts this season, you're down -2.9 units, which isn't that bad considering the Cubs are 2-5 in those starts. Last season he turned into a very reliable starter and finished the season with a 3.11 ERA, but lacked run support and ended up with a losing record. Things looked promising in his first four starts this year, but two of his last three were way out of character.
The left-hander had his shortest outing of the season on Wednesday against the White Sox, lasting only four innings while giving up eight earned runs. He was pick 'em (-105) in that road game against a shaky John Danks, who ironically had given up eight runs in his last start (at Cleveland). That price alone shows a considerable downgrade on Wood's rating from the tough pitcher we got used to and respected last season.
Part of the downgrade is because of what Wood did in his previous two starts where he allowed eight runs combined over 12.2 innings of work.
So here he is tonight at St. Louis as a massive underdog against lefthander Tyler Lyons (-165), who has yet to pitch in a game this season that the Cardinals have won. Between three starts and two relief appearances, the Cardinals are 0-5.
The -165 price might be acceptable if we were talking about last year's Cardinals that drove everyone home with runners in scoring position, but this year's version is another story. They have scored only 3.6 runs per game. The Cubs, known for their lack of support, have scored 3.7 runs per game.
After a season-high win streak of three games on May 3, the Cubs have now lost five of their last six. The Cardinals just avoided a sweep in Pittsburgh to take them back up to .500, but they've lost 12 of their last 19. They're going to bounce back big eventually, and the Cubs are a good punching bag, but if you took the names and records off the stats, and just looked at them closely side by side, you might make the Cardinals -120, and only that high because of home field.
One stat we can now add to the mix, after revealing the team names, is that the current Cardinals roster has collectively hit .328 off of Wood. Yadier Molina, who broke out of a three- game hitless streak yesterday, has gone 12-for-30 (.400) with three homers and 11 RBIs off of Wood.
But now we have to file in some positive stuff about Wood, which really illustrates why this line is out of whack. On May 2nd, Wood beat Adam Wainwright, 6-5, at Wrigley Field for his second win of the season. Wainwright, one of the highest-rated pitchers in baseball, was only -160. Give about seven cents to the Cubs for home field, but there's a huge difference compared to today's price just because of a really poor outing by Wood, which just happened to be his last one.
We also have to factor in the Cardinals going only 3-6 against lefties this season. Yes, the Cubs have gone only 12-24 in 2014, and wins are rare for them, but this is the type of value you have to call on.
Obviously, betting against the Cubs (-8.9 units) has been a good venture, but the rating on Wood is at a two-year low. No one is betting on the Cubs and the sports books are tired of losing on them nightly, so they'll welcome the Cubs money and don't mind giving +152 to get it. They've cast their fishing line out with the number dangling and this one is worth biting.
Speaking of Fish
The Marlins are getting +151 at Dodgers Stadium tonight, despite the roll Tom Koehler has been on. He hasn't given up a run in his past two starts, including 10 days ago at home against the Dodgers in a 6-3 Marlins win. The Marlins just lost their last three at San Diego, dropping them from the NL East lead by two games to Atlanta (on a three-game win streak). The Dodgers come off losing three of four at home to the Giants and will send Dan Haren to stop the bleeding. The Dodgers have lost two of his last three starts, but his turn in the rotation wasn't up when they visited Miami. A second time around against the Dodgers so quickly for Koehler might not be a preferred scenario if weighing options on the game, but the +151 is hard to pass up.
Cubs (Wood) +152 at Cardinals
Marlins (Koehler) +151 at Dodgers
Giants (Lincecum) -110 vs. Braves
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 12
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
As mentioned in yesterday's baseball betting focus, the Angels just keep feasting on the Blue Jays. Toronto batters unable to solve L.A.'s ace Jered Weaver on Sunday lost the third straight of this four-game series and have now been bested in 10 of 11 encounters with Halos and in 8 of 10 when playing host to Mike Scioscia's troops. Enough already, if there was ever a chance for Toronto to pick up a rare win it's handing the ball to Mark Buehrle who is 6-1 in seven starts with an A.L. best 1.91 ERA. The left-hander off seven shutout innings in a victory over Philadelphia moving his May team start record to smart 11-2 has also been a great skid stopper for Toronto. The Jays are 15-8 off a loss handing the ball to the hurler including 7-3 at the Rogers Center. Digging deeper to get a better take on the situation finds Toronto 4-1 at home in Buehrle's subsequent appearance following a quality start of =>7 Inn, =< 2 runs. One final betting nugget. The lone victory Toronto has earned vs Halos the past eleven was when Buehrle took to the mound.