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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 12

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 12

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

San Antonio at Portland
The Spurs look to follow up their 118-103 win over Portland in Game 3 and finish the sweep tonight against a Blazers team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game. San Antonio is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2).

Game 729-730: Miami at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.965; Brooklyn 126.347
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 1 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+2 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: San Antonio at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 129.699; Portland 121.501
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 206
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 211
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Under

NHL

Los Angeles at Anaheim
The Kings head back to Anaheim for Game 5 tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in their last 4 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+110)

Game 67-68: Boston at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.844; Montreal 11.359
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

Game 69-70: Los Angeles at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.102; Anaheim 12.099
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+110); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Washington at Arizona
The Nationals head to Arizona tonight to open their series with the Diamondbacks and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in Jordan Zimmermann's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120).

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 14.211; St. Louis (Lyons) 15.203
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over

Game 903-904: Washington at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.102; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

Game 905-906: Miami at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 16.052; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.190
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+145); Under

Game 907-908: Atlanta at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Floyd) 15.825; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.656
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-105); Over

Game 909-910: LA Angels at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.687; Toronto (Buehlre) 16.177
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 911-912: Detroit at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.934; Baltimore (Norris) 15.816
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Over

Game 913-914: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.580; Houston (Peacock) 14.005
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.527; Oakland (Chavez) 14.441
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+165); Over

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Ramos) 15.341; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Under

Game 919-920: NY Mets at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 14.859; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.305
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+140); Over

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Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants   
Play: San Francisco Giants -114

The Giants fir a nice 83% system here tonight that plays on home favorites off road dog win at +140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs,vs an opponent like the Braves that are off a home favored win at -140 or higher. The Braves have lost all 3 to the Giants this season and are averaging under 2 runs in their last 7 games. They are hitting just .219 on the road. The Giants arrive back home after taking 3 of 4 from the LA Dodgers and are now a solid 11-4 vs winning teams. The Braves have Gavin Floyd making just his 2nd start and he will face T. Lincecum who has been solid vs the Braves and has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 19 innings against them. After that it gets even tougher for Atlanta as the Giants have a Home bullpen with a 0.73 era. Look for the Giants to take the opener.


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Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers and Orioles open a three-game series in Baltimore where Rick Porcello matches serves with Bud Norris and Camden Yards. Porcello enters in fine KW form with 25 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last four starts, along with a 1.06 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, Norris is 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in his career team starts against Detroit. With that look for Porcello to improve to 10-3 away in his career team starts during May here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

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Art Aronson

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Texas Rangers -130

The Rangers have dominated the lone star state battle and I expect that trend to continue in the opener of this three-game set. Texas sends Colby Lewis (2-2, 6.12 ERA) to the bump; Lewis has struggled to start the season and recently gave up seven runs and a career worst-matching 12 hits over 3 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss to Colorado on Wednesday. Lewis however has had success against the Astros, going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in nine games, including six starts. Here’s the perfect opponent for Lewis to get untracked against, Texas already took two of three at home from the Astros April 11-13; looking back further sees that the Rangers have won 13 of the last 14 in this series. The Astros have been outscored 81-37 in that 1-13 stretch; also note that the Rangers have won 19 of their last 22 in Houston. The Astros counter with confirmed gas-can Brad Peacock (0-3, 5.03 ERA) who has looked “ok” of late, but note that the righty is 0-2 with a 3.07 ERA in three career games against Texas and gave up a run and three hits in 2 2/3 innings of relief vs. the Rangers earlier this year. Keep an eye out for the visitors’ slugger Andrian Beltre who in his last 25 games against Houston has torched it for eight homers and 23 RBIs. Expect the better team to bounce back off a loss and get a win here. Consider laying the fair price to get Texas.


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Bryan Leonard

Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½

A couple of impressive southpaws that know how to pitch will square off on Monday night at Busch Stadium when Travis Wood and Tyler Lyons take the mound. Neither guy will touch 90 very often, but deception, an ability to change speeds, and good control put these pitchers among the craftiest lefties in the game.

Wood has experienced a strikeout increase this season with a 21.4 percent strikeout rate. That's nearly one strikeout per inning for him so far on the season. He has gotten a bit unlucky with a .341 BABIP leading to a 4.75 ERA. His 3.42 FIP and 3.61 SIERA suggest that better things are on the horizon for Wood.

As for Lyons, he has a five-pitch mix and good fastball command. So far this season while used as a starter, Lyons has allowed seven runs in 18 innings and has averaged a strikeout per inning. He's doing a great job missing the fat part of the plate with a line drive rate of just 15.8 percent.

Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of hitting left-handed pitching. The Cubs are 19th in OPS while the Cardinals are 26th. The Cubs are averaging just 3.4 runs per game so far this month. The Cardinals are playing the Sunday night game in Pittsburgh and will have a late night return trip home to open up this series.
Expect a lot of strikes and a lot of weak outs from these two guys that know how to get hitters out.

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Jesse Schule

Boston vs. Montreal
Pick: Under

The Habs are on the brink of elimination, needing to win at home Monday to force a Game 7 in this series. We saw a tight defensive battle here in Montreal in Game 4, as Matt Fraser's overtime winner broke a scoreless tie.

I don't expect to see a lot of open ice here in tonight's game, and with two of the best goaltenders in hockey, goals should be pretty tough to come by.

We've seen the total go over the number just once in the last six meetings in Montreal, and I expect to see the under continue to trend tonight.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Carey Price have a big game, here is what he said after Game 5: "They capitalized on a couple opportunities right at the start of the second period, and that was a tough hole to dig out of," Montreal goalie Carey Price said. "We're going to stay positive. The series is not over yet. We're going home, and we're going to bring our absolute best."

Take UNDER.


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Bryan Power

Detroit vs. Baltimore
Pick: Detroit

Baltimore just cannot seem to stay healthy.  Just as Chris Davis made his return to the lineup, the team learned Matt Wieters would be heading to the disabled list - possibly until June.  This is a tough break for a team that despite leading the surprisingly subpar AL East has actually been outscored by its opponents for the year.

Both the Orioles and the Tigers are off disappointing losses Sunday to Houston and Minnesota respectively.  In the case of the O's, the loss snapped a five-game win streak.  But the team's recent winning ways have been a mirage in my opinion.  In their last three series, they've played the Astros, Twins and Rays.  Those are the three last place teams in the American League.  The lineup lacks discipline drawing the fewest number of walks among A.L. teams.

Detroit took 2 of 3 from Baltimore earlier in the year, but just dropped 2 of 3 to Minnesota over the weekend.  Yet they remain in good shape in the AL Central w/ a five-game lead.  They still also own the best win percentage in baseball (.636).  Yesterday's loss was tough as they blew a three-run lead.   In the starting pitching department, I'll give the nod to Rick Porcello over Bud Norris despite some of the former's past struggles here at Camden Yards.

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Chase Diamond

Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -105

This game features the 19-17 Angels at the 18-20 Jays. We got smacked hard yesterday backing the Blue Jays as they got blow out. But today we are backing the hottest pitcher in the American League Mark Buehrle he is 6-1 with a 1.91 ERA and seems to have his stuff back. Toronto needs this game having lost 3 straight this team will be playing balls to the wall tonight. 


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Jim Feist

Detroit vs. Baltimore
Pick: Detroit

Two of the hottest teams in May square off today in Baltimore as the O's host the Tigers. Despite losing on Sunday, the O's are 8-3 in May while Detroit is 7-3. Both clubs currently lead their respective divisions with the O's holding a 1 1/2 game lead over the Yankees and Detroit has a five-game cushion over the Royals and White Sox. Detroit has an excellent pitching staff, 2nd in the AL in average runs per game (3.75), 2nd in team ERA (3.45) and 2nd in Home runs allowed 924). Rick Porcello is having a great early season, posting a 5-1 record, 3.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In his six starts, Porcello has allowed two runs or fewer in four outings and has won his last four starts. Baltimore will counter with Bud Norris. Norris is 2-2 this season with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Tigers have done well backing up Porcello, winning 16 of his last 21 starts and 5-2 in his last seven road outings. This should be a good contest to watch with a pair of division leaders starting two good pitchers. I'm taking the Tigers here though. The Tigers have a much strong pitching staff overall and have proven they can win and win often behind Porcello.

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Larry Ness

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

Seattle's King Felix" is seeking his first win in more than a month...

The Rays may be happy to get out of Tropicana Field. Tampa dropped the first four of a six-game homestand, totaling just 10 runs (2.5 per) and hitting .171 with runners in scoring position. The team's bats did 'wake up' Saturday and Sunday (12 runs on 19 hits) but the Rays were only able to split those two, finishing 1-5 for the week.

It's off to Seattle on Monday, opening with a three-game series with the Angels, followed by four games in Anaheim with the Angels. The Rays scored 26 runs and hit .284 with eight HRs to win four of five road games prior to last week's homestand but they've lost FOUR of their last five in Seattle.

Cesar Ramos gets tehe start for Tampa and he's been effective since joining Tampa Bay's starting rotation, except for a poor first outing. He allowed three hits, three walks and four ERs in just two innings of a 12-4 loss at Cincy (Apr 13) in that first start but in four subsequent starts, has allowed 13 hits over 20.1 innings for a 1.77 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 10 appearances, including five starts here in 2014 (Rays are 2-3 in those starts).

His mound opponent will be "King Felix," who is seeking his first win in more than a month. Hernandez opened 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA with 39 strikeouts in his first four starts but is 0-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 14 strikeouts in his last four. He allowed a season-high 11 hits and four runs over 6.1 innings in a 6-4, 10-inning victory at Oakland on Wednesday but didn't record a strike out for the first time since August 19, 2008!

That said, I sure expect the former Cy Young winner to bounce back here, vs the slumping Rays. Hernandez is 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays, including 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in eight home meetings with Tampa Bay.

Big price but worth a small play.

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Will Rogers

Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Pick: Atlanta

Here is a free play on the Atlanta Braves and his keys to the game:

The Braves certainly aren't scoring many runs lately, but fortunately they are giving up even less.  Tonight they embark on a trip to San Francisco and I really think tonight's starting pitching matchup will be in their favor.

1.  Revenge - The Braves were swept by the Giants at Turner Field this month, which started their offensive slide.  They managed only one run in every game.  Tonight should be different though as they are coming off a sweep of the Cubs while the Giants just got done playing a difficult series with the Dodgers.

2. Pitching - Atlanta starts Gavin Floyd, who won his first start of 2014 last Tuesday by going seven strong innings and allowing just one run on six hits.  I'm concerned with Tim Lincecum of the Giants as his ERA is 5.55 for the season. He allowed four runs in four innings in his last start.

3. X-Factor - Like the Braves, the Giants haven't really been producing at the plate either.  They've scored only 19 runs their last six games and are batting .215 during that time.

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Matt Fargo

New York Mets vs. New York Yankees    
Play: New York Mets +140 

The Mets snapped their five-game losing streak with a win on Sunday over the Phillies and they look to carry that over into the start of this four-game series against the Yankees on Monday. They have been decent on the road with an 8-9 record and they are looking to get Bartolo Colon a win after losing his last three starts on the highway. He has had two horrible outings this season but also has five quality outings and he is coming off a solid performance at Miami as he allowed three runs in seven inning but New York managed no runs in the game. In two starts against the Yankees last season, he allowed three runs in 11.1 combined innings. The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 roadtrip but they did lose the last two games in Milwaukee and at 9-8 at home on the season, they have been far from dominating and should not be laying a price this big. This includes a 1-4 record in their last five home games. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball tonight and he has put together two straight quality outings after a rough start to the season. He has struggled at home with a 5.79 ERA and the Mets are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 3-7 in Kuroda's last 10 starts.


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Jimmy Boyd

Miami Heat -2½

While Brooklyn won Game 3 by 14-points at home, I'm not convinced they will be able to repeat that success in Game 4. The Nets shot 52.8% from the field and were a sensational 15 of 25 (60%) from long distance. LeBron James couldn't buy a basket after a big first quarter. You also have to keep in mind that was a game Miami could afford to lose and it just didn't seem like the intensity was there.

I expect a completely different outcome tonight. Miami is going to turn up the defensive pressure and the Nets aren't going to hit 60% from behind the 3-point line. You can also expect a stronger performance out of James and the rest of the Heat offensively, as they understand the importance of finishing this series early.

The Heat have a history of dominating the conference semifinals, as they are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games played in the 2nd round. Miami is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 25-11 ATS revenging a same season loss. My money is on the Heat to cover the 2.5-points!

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Ray Monohan

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets    
Play: Miami Heat -2½

I thought the Heat would drop one game in this series and now they have. Surprisingly even though they lost convincingly they are even bigger favourites than they were in G3.  The only explanation can be that oddsmakers knew there would be a lot of interest in the home side over the weekend. It would have been pretty hard to ignore Miami at -1 and I think they are the play in G4 at -2.5.

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Steve Janus

San Francisco Giants -112

The Giants won in extra-innings yesterday to take 3 of 4 on the road against the rival Dodgers and are now tied with the Brewers for the best record in baseball at 24-14. Getting the Giants as a very small home favorite is too good to pass up, especially with the Braves having to travel cross-country for this matchup and are coming off an easy sweep at home against the lowly Chicago Cubs.

Tim Lincecum doesn't get anywhere close to the same respect he once did from the books. While his numbers aren't great, the Giants just keep finding ways to win when he takes the mound. They have won 5 of his 7 starts this season and are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite and 4-1 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of the series.

It's also worth noting that this will be the Giants first home off a lengthy 10-game road trip. San Francisco is a dominant 25-9 in their last 34 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days. Adding to this is the fact that Atlanta is just 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs a team with a home winning percentage greater than 60%.

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Scott Spreitzer

Detroi Tigers -110

Great spot for Rick Porcello to solve Camden Yards.  The metrics in this one heavily favor the road hurler.  Porcello has added more to his repertoire and he's shortened his key metrics, including his ERA of late.  In fact, he's been on top of his game in three of his last four starts.  Porcello pitched well in his April start against the Orioles, allowing just 1 earned run and 5 base runners in 6 1/3 IP.  The Tigers slammed Norris in the same game, a 7-6 Detroit win.  Detroit enters on a 5-0 run on the road and they're on a 16-5 run in Porcello's last 21 starts.  I'm recommending a play on the Tigers on Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 12

DAVE COKIN

ATLANTA BRAVES AT SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -115

The Atlanta Braves lost some key pieces of their proposed starting rotation before the season ever started. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy won’t be back this season. But Mike Minor has returned and now Gavin Floyd is back in action as well. Floyd made his Braves debut last week and the organization has to be excited about how well he threw the ball.

I’m looking for a bit of a bounce tonight for Floyd. It’s not uncommon for pitchers coming back from a lengthy injury stint to do well right out of the gate, but they frequently don’t dip nearly as well in that second start back. Floyd has never been the most consistent pitcher on the planet regardless, and if you look at his career ledger, you’ll spot a pretty substantial pattern of inconsistent efforts, particularly when coming off a positive outing.

Tim Lincecum will go for the Giants tonight, and I honestly don’t have any idea what to expect from him. One thing that’s sure is that Lincecum is no cinch to put a quality start together. He’s still good enough to make hitters look silly at times. But the Lincecum heat will never be what it used to be, and his mistakes can get hammered these days.

This is mostly anti-Floyd and also somewhat anti-Braves. Atlanta has had some problems recently when traveling to the Pacific time zone, and jet lag can always enter the mix for east coast teams just arriving out west. As for the Giants, it’s their first at home following ten straight on the road, but the team is playing good baseball and I can see that continuing. I’m not going to pretend I’m expecting a vintage effort from “The Freak” but I’ll call for the Giants too come out on top tonight.

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