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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 7

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 7

Wednesday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler

Giants-Pirates: I don't think I can take Lincecum. He's not striking people out and has become a big-time flyball pitcher. He has, however, owned the Pirates. Cole is either very ON or very OFF. I lean under, especially at 7.5, unless they ruin the pens even more, although I have not looked at the weather.. My reservation about taking the Giants is that their bags will be packed to fly back to the West Coast, but to play AT the Dodgers.

Dodgers-Nationals: Again, one might wonder if the Dodgers are halfway home, since THEY are flying home after this game to play the Giants. I never trust Haren, and Strasburg has been very good at home since getting shelled early by Atlanta. Total already down to 6.5 at CRIS, so we may not see 7 again. Haren has thrown four straight 100+ pitch games, and there is an angle here, ALL imo dependent on Tuesday night's game.

Mets-Fish: Both Koehler and Wheeler have been a little over valued so I think that lines' about right. Mets packed for Citi Field for three against the Phillies, then the Yankees, so I can see them looking to the next one here. Fish fly to San Diego,but do they care? Probably not. Wheeler just beat the Fish and took 110 pitches to get through 6, but did strike out a lot, so I'd be inclined to think Miami adjusts. Conversely, the Mets just hit Koehler, so I'd think that given his record at home, Miami or nothing.

Arizona-Milwaukee: As bad as Arroyo has been I half-expected this line to be even more than -145. But, he has improved his last two starts. My reservation might be that the Brewers have seen TONS of him when he was with the Reds. Peralta two straight 100+ pitch games for a young kid, and Arizona has hit him around, albeit in limited exposure. I can actually make a case for the D-Backs RL here, and maybe even the ML depending on Tuesday's game and lineups. Arizona has Thursday off I think, so they may play everyone, while the Brewers have the Yankees coming to town, and they also have Wednesday off.

Oakland-Seattle: Almost looks to easy to take Felix on the road at only -130, but the A's have seen as much of him as anyone. I don't trust Straily because the Mariners might have started hitting, again, we'll see what happens Tuesday, but perhaps an over in that one. Or, if Oakland uses much MORE bullpen Tuesday, I could make a great case for the Mariners, maybe even the RL. Let's see lineups.

Altanta-St. Louis: Well, sooner or later the Braves will start hitting, if they didn't/don't Tuesday against Lyons. Minor can give up the long ball, so as much as I have not liked fading the Braves at home, if they don't perform Tuesday, they may not Wednesday. Very dysfunctional team right now and Gonzalez trying TOO many things, IMO. Moved BJ down in the order, Freeman batting second (WTF) and the pitcher batting 8th. Perhaps trying to out think the room rather than play the game.

Houston-Tigers: I know Peacock can suck, but there is simply no chance Porcello is a -240 pitcher right now, and the Astros hit RHP reasonably well. If the weather is half-decent, I can see this going over, actually, in spite of it coming off of 9 at CRIS already. Fine, 8.5 is exponentially better. Maybe the Astros RL as a flyer at a sick price.

Twins-Indians: Nolasco pitched reasonable for a change last time out, but threw a ton of pitches. He was already hammered by the Indians  (although the Twins won the game) so that would probably preclude me trying to take the dog here. I do think Salazar is almost always over valued, and with a team that's struggled to hit I can't lay that price. I could CONSIDER the Indians RL depending on Tuesday, and perhaps the over, but the wind direction will be critical IMO.

Rays-Orioles: I always did like Norris in the underdog role, and the Rays pen has been pretty ugly at times, which could be important because Ramos just isn't going to pitch deep (usually). Sad part is that Norris hasn't been great on the road, and several Rays have had their way with him. Just not sure it's always that easy, and since the Trop is famous for "unders" maybe I'd put a marble on the Baltimore RL. Tough one.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 7

Wednesday's Action
By Kevin Rogers
Phillies at Blue Jays

Probable starters:
PHI: Lee (3-2, 3.00 ERA)
TOR: Buehrle (5-1, 2.25 ERA)

Series recap: The Blue Jays grabbed a pair of victories at Citizens Bank Park the last two nights, including a wild 6-5 triumph in 10 innings on Tuesday. Philadelphia rallied from a 5-0 deficit to tie things up, but the Phillies finished up their six-game homestand at 2-4. Meanwhile, Toronto extended its season-high winning streak to three games to improve to 16-17.

Current form: Since the start of May, the Jays are 5-1 to the ‘over,’ but Toronto has lost five of its last seven games at Rogers Center. The Phillies have won six of their past eight contests on the highway, while Philadelphia has won all four of Lee’s road starts.

Reds at Red Sox

Probable starters:
CIN: Leake (2-3, 3.53 ERA)
BOS: Peavy (1-1, 2.87 ERA)

Series recap: Boston built an early 3-1 lead before Cincinnati came back with a pair of runs in the eighth inning. The Sox received a walk-off single from Grady Sizemore in the 12th inning to pick up a 4-3 victory as -130 favorites, while improving to 1-3 this season at home against National League opponents.

Current form: The Reds have lost four consecutive road games, while riding a 6-1 run to the ‘under’ in the past seven away contests. Boston has hit the ‘under’ in four straight games, while the Sox are 3-1 to the ‘under’ in Peavy’s four home starts.

Cardinals at Braves

Probable starters:
STL: Wainwright (5-2, 2.16 ERA)
ATL: Minor (0-1, 3.00 ERA)

Series recap: The Braves and Cardinals have split a pair of games decided by one run apiece, as Atlanta ended a seven-game skid in Tuesday’s 2-1 triumph. Atlanta scored three runs or less for the fifth straight contest, while going ‘under’ the total for the fifth consecutive game.

Current form: Wainwright had allowed six earned runs in his first six starts combined before giving up six earned runs in his last outing against the Cubs. The Cardinals have won 14 of Wainwright’s last 20 starts in the role of a road favorite, but St. Louis is just 1-4 on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. The Braves are listed as a home underdog for the second time this season, beating the Nationals, 10-2 as +120 ‘dogs on April 13.

Orioles at Rays

Probable starters:
BAL: Norris (2-2, 3.94 ERA)
TB: Ramos (1-1, 2.91 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles improved to 3-0 this season against the Rays following Tuesday’s 5-3 victory as +130 underdogs. Baltimore erased a 2-0 deficit, as the Orioles have outscored the Rays this season, 15-4 in three meetings. The win by the Orioles snapped a seven-game winning streak in this series by the home team dating back to last season.

Current form: Since a 16-1 blowout of the Yankees on April 19, the Rays have dropped four of their last five games at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay has drilled the ‘over’ in 10 of its past 12 home contests, including six straight ‘overs’ against right-handed starters at the Trop. Baltimore has cashed five of its previous seven opportunities in the road underdog role, but the O’s own a 2-6 record off an away win this season.

Cubs at White Sox

Probable starters:
CHC: Wood (2-3, 3.35 ERA)
CWS: Danks (2-2, 5.00 ERA)

Series recap: After the Cubs took two of three from the Cardinals last weekend, the Cubs’ offense fell short in a pair of losses to the rival White Sox. The Cubs plated just two runs the last two nights, while falling to the Sox at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, 5-1 as a -135 favorite.

Current form: The Cubs are winless in Wood’s two road starts this season, while the North Siders are 2-1 on the highway against left-handed starting pitchers. The Sox are 1-5 off consecutive victories this season, while the ‘under’ has hit in six of the last seven games overall. Danks is favored for the first time in seven starts, as the Sox are 0-4 in his past four starts in the favorite role since 2013.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 7

Wednesday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Low in San Diego

The Padres continued trending as the best Under play in the league, moving to 8-23-3 O/U in Tuesday's 3-1 loss to visiting Kansas City. Not even lower totals have made a difference, as San Diego is now 5-9 O/U with the number set at 6.5. That's the total for Wednesday's rematch with the Royals (+101).

Wainwright Loves the East

St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has enjoyed success in NL East locales as he leads the Cardinals (-120, 6.5) into Atlanta as one of only two road favorites on the day. Wainwright is 6-1 in his last seven starts in NL East cities, with his only loss coming to the Braves last July 26.

Rick the Slick

Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers are whopping -230 favorites against the visiting Houston Astros. Porcello has won his last four starts as a fave of -200 or more, posting a 3.12 ERA in that span while recording quality starts in each outing.

Pitching Notes

* San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum has learned to make do without racking up the strikeouts, going 6-1 in his last seven starts in which he has had five or fewer Ks. The Giants (+118, 7) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates.

* Cincinnati Reds hurler Bronson Arroyo has held opponents without a homer in back-to-back starts. He hasn't done so in three straight since the middle of the 2012 season. Arroyo and the Reds (+131, 8.5) will be in tough against the host Boston Red Sox.

Hitting Notes

* Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki continued his torrid hitting Tuesday, raising his average to .421 with a 3-for-4 performance in a 12-1 drubbing of the Texas Rangers. Tulowitzki has seven multi-hit efforts in the last eight games, helping the Rockies to a 7-1 O/U mark over that stretch.

* Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is also on fire, extending his hitting streak to eight games with a 3-for-5 effort in Tuesday's 7-5 win over Milwaukee. Arizona, which is 6-1-1 O/U during that stretch, is a +128 underdog against the Brewers Wednesday.

Total Streak

Minnesota Twins (0-6-0 O/U): The Twins have been getting sensational efforts from their pitching staff, allowing four runs or fewer in each of their past six games. Unfortunately, the offense has gone south at the same time, managing more than three runs just twice over that stretch.

Prop of the Day

Oddsmakers aren't confident in the Oakland Athletics' ability to hang a big number on Seattle ace Felix Hernandez in the opener of their doubleheader. The Athletics are a +160 underdog to have the highest-scoring inning in that game, compared to Seattle at +125 and a tie result at +275.

Key Injuries

* The Baltimore Orioles are expected to place catcher Matt Wieters (elbow) on the disabled list. Wieters is hitting a career-best .341 so far this season, and the Orioles are 6-4 against the moneyline and 5-4-1 O/U in games in which he records more than one hit; they're +125 underdogs against Tampa Bay.

* Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins is dealing with a groin injury that has limited him to pinch-hitting duty in consecutive games. The Phillies, who are 0-4 on the year in games in which Rollins has been unavailable to start, are +106 underdogs against Toronto Wednesday.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Coliseum in Oakland will see sunny skies and wind blowing out to right field at 11 mph. Teams averaged 7.98 per game in 41 contests last season with winds blowing east to west at better than 10 mph - only slightly better than the stadium average.

* The latest installment of the Cubs-White Sox rivalry at U.S. Cellular Field will see wind blowing in from right field at 11 mph. Teams averaged just 6.5 runs per game in six games under such conditions a season ago, well below the stadium average of 8.15.

Umpire Note of the Day

The road team is 7-1 in umpire Todd Tichenor's last eight games behind home plate. Tichenor will call the balls and strikes for the game between the Cardinals and the Braves.

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