Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 5

Hollywood Sports

Wizards at Pacers
Play: Under

The Wizards (48-39) clinched their opening round series with a 75-69 win over Chicago last Tuesday. Washington has played 4 straight games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 75 or fewer points. Additionally, the Wizards have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Pacers (60-29) survived their series with Atlanta with their 92-80 win on Saturday. Now facing a conventional offense (rather than Hawks' lineup with five 3-point shooters stretching the court), Indiana's Roy Hibbert will once again be relevant protecting the rim inside the arc.

The Under is 6-2-1 in the Pacers' last 9 games after a double-digit win. And in the last 5 games between these two teams in Indiana, the game finished Under the Total all 5 times. Take the Under in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 5

Non Stop Sports Picks

Nets (+415) vs Heat (-550) – The Nets took care of business against the Heat this season. They won EVERY game the teams played, both at home and on the road. So they know how to match up against the Heat. However, I am just NOT seeing how that matters. The Nets advanced from the first round, although they struggled at times. What I saw against the Raptors was that they struggle immensely to finish games at times and go through long scoring draughts. That was against the RAPTORS. Miami’s defense is about 10x as good, and really the key for the Nets seems to be Deron Williams. When he’s aggressive, ball movement and scoring happens more freely. But I’m not sure he’s healthy enough to do it night in and night out. And honestly, even if he does, I don’t think it matters. I see the Heat taking both in Miami, splitting in Brooklyn, and then winning in 5/6.

Pacers (-180) vs Wizards (+150) – The Pacers nearly lost to the Hawks and myself and clients are glad they didn’t. We placed a 1.5* bet on the Pacers to win the series at -185, which was DOWN from the opening line at -600. Overreaction by the market, and we took the VALUE. This is a series the Pacers should handle. The Wizards had a good matchup against the Bulls (we took the Wizards +170 to win the series last round) and the Bulls couldn’t score. While I think the Pacers are exhausted from playing TOO hard all season to get the #1 seed, I just don’t see them losing 4 games to the Wizards. That being said, we’re going to place a 1.5* wager on the Pacers to win the series. I’m hoping that the Pacers win game 1, and then we will look to come back and take the Wizards +300 + or so to GUARANTEE we profit. We will bet 1* on the Wizards if they lose game 1 to win 3* or maybe a bit more. Prediction: Pacers in 6/7.

Thunder (-200) vs Clippers (+175) – This should be a great series. Two teams that can flat out score. And it won’t be scoring that determines the outcome of this series, it will be defense. And I frankly haven’t seen ANY or little to ANY from the Clippers to have MUCH confidence in them winning this series. Still…I don’t think OKC is a 2 to 1 favorite to win this series. So no pre-series bet in this one. We’re going to hope that OKC wins game 1, and then we can hopefully get the Clippers at around +300, which we will bet. Think of it from the perspective that home teams should at least split in the first 2 at home and want to win both, so if the Thunder do what they should do…then we have VALUE on the Clippers at that point. We’ll look to play it after game 1. Prediction – OKC in 7.

Spurs (-340) vs Trailblazers (+270) – Spurs. Spurs. Spurs. I won’t ask anyone to lay 3.4* to win 1*, but the Spurs will dominate this series. The Blazers get one game in Portland, just because RIP city is a tough place to play, but this is Spurs in 5. Spurs are incredible on the road, and even in the regular season when they sit their starters, they STILL win often! The Blazers were able to hang around in games against the Rockets, and then came back late to win. The Spurs will go for the kill and won’t let them just “hang around”. And I think that Popovich is such an outstanding coach, he will completely shut down Lilliard. From there, the Blazers DO have Aldridge, who is incredible. But Duncan is better than advertised on defense. The Spurs are just TOO much for this over-achieving Blazers team. Prediction: Spurs in 5.

Series Parlay: Heat & Spurs Series

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 5

Wunderdog

Chicago @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -148

The Chicago White Sox aren't getting it done away from home with a 5-10 road record. The offense has gone to sleep during a four-game skid, scoring nine runs the last four contests. The White Sox are 30-61 following a loss, plus 16-35 as an underdog. Starter Andre Rienzo may be 2-0, but he's walked six in 13 innings and allowed 17 base runners, with a poor 8-6 strikeout to walk ratio. The White Sox are 6-21 in the last 27 meetings with the Indians, plus 1-10 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland. Meanwhile, Cleveland is good at home with a winning record, and has Corey Kluber going with a 35-10 strikeout to walk ratio in 37 innings. He is 2-1 at home with a 2.91 ERA, and the Indians are 15-7 in Kluber's last 22 starts, as well as 10-2 in Kluber's last 12 home starts. Play the Cleveland Indians.


Los Angeles @ Washington
Pick: Washington +103

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a ton of talent in their rotation and have a deep line up, but they have not translated that into a record that equals what you see on paper. Washington is even with them in the loss column on the season. Jordan Zimmermann gives the Nats a good look tonight as he is rounding into form at 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA on the season. Zack Greinke is capable of shutting down the Nats as he has been 5-0 on the season for the Dodgers. The problem for Los Angeles has been a shaky bullpen that blew a 7-2 lead vs. the light hitting Marlins, and supplied a walk off loss yesterday as well. The Dodgers have been no-shows in series openers where they are just 1-5 in their last six, and the Nats are an impressive 37-17 in Zimmermann's last 54 starts. Make the play on Washington.

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