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MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 5
MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 5
MLB Betting News and Notes
By Dave Essler
Washington-Dodgers: Two teams off tough losses and probably not super-confident, and Washington come home from Philly after a wasted effort by Gio. Because the Dodgers have had their way with Grienke, I lean to the Dodgers, and if that total comes down and the weather cooperates, I do think both teams get some.
Pirates-Giants: Two teams going in opposite directions right now, and Jeff Locke may have had his moment in the sun early last season. His AAA stats this year suck, the Pirates pen is bad and without Grilli, and Cain has handled the Pirates well. That means the Giants should win but if only they were all that easy. Need Giants lineup after big Atlanta series. Now it looks like a pitching change. Either Cain's thumb isn't cool or the Pirates decided to go with Wandy if his knee in fine, so refresh on this one. I only edited it so some a-hole wouldn't "remind" me tomorrow
Cardinals-Braves: St. Louis probably gets to Atlanta sometime well after midnight after playing the Sunday night game, and the Braves just can't hit the long ball right now. Obviously need to wait for STL lineup, but both Harang AND Miller have regressed. I still have to lean Braves at that price at home, and maybe the over.
Mets-Fish: There are lots of angles here. Mets flying from no-air and winning to South Florida and a team that's winning. Niese has been a freak, BUT, the Marlins have hammered him. It's not as warm in Ft. Lauderdale as it usually is, so there's a slight chance the roof might be open, because I do lean to the over a little. Because everyone will be on the Fish, and they aren't always that easy, I may take the Mets RL.
Arizona-Brewers: Nice win for us Sunday fading the D-Backs and their bullpen, and of course w/Garza you'd think that the Brewers would be an auto play, which is why I might look at the D-Backs RL. They've hit Garza some, and coming home after a tough loss to the Reds isn't a happy place for them to be. Over would be far to easy as well, I think.
Cleveland-Twins: The Indians have fallen on hard times and the Twins may not be the answer to their problems. McAllsiter just isn't a -160 pitcher and Gibson's stock has obviously dropped, but he does have some talent. No chance of the Indians here. Twins or Twins RL, probably.
Houston-Detroit: If the total is only 7.5 here, do the really expect this to be a 6-1 or so win by the Tigers? Interesting. Let's see who rests for the Tigers and who doesn't. ONE game at +245 or probably + for the RL I wouldn't consider taking the Tigers RL unless that total goes up. Need to check the weather there.
Oakland-Seattle: This one may not be as easy as it looks. Maybe it is, but the wind is supposed to be blowing out hard, so if you like over, it won't close at 7 IMO. Young does have SOME potential and the Mariners started hitting, so maybe after the A's fly cross country I could consider the M's RL.
Yankees-Angels: A little surprised Weaver is only -175 or so, really. Yankees play like sh*t and fly cross country to a team that's hitting with their best pitcher on the mound. Something just doesn't look right. This is almost one that I'd just play the ML on because Phelps isn't going to pitch deep. Maybe the over, too. Let's see lineups.
Toronto-Phillies: JA Happ is going against one of his old teams here, which is always a good spot. And of course Kendrick has been terrible. Since everyone now assumes the Phillies can't hit, they may well do that. Toronto of course has not DH so that could mean Jays bullpen sooner rather than later. Phillies isn't a ton better, so if it (the total) went to 8.5 I might consider the over.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 5
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto and Philadelphia play a four game home-home inter-league set starting at Citizens Bank Park. Blue Jays hand the ball to left-handed J.A. Happ (0-0, 4.15 ERA) who is making his first start of the season but heads to the mound 2-0 career vs Philadelphia when with Astros. He trades pitches with Kyle Kendrick (0-2, 2.52 ERA). The right-hander with a 1-2 team start record vs Toronto will be looking for his first win of the campaign and first in twelve starts dating back to last season (0-7, 4-8 TSR). A good spot for Kendrick to pick up a rare victory as Jays are on a 0-3 skid attempting back-2-back wins, 2-4 on this current road swing, 5-8 last thirteen away in inter-league action and will hit the field 4-12 in Happ's last 16 starts, 0-4 with the hurler in Monday starts.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 5
Cards head to Atlanta
St. Louis (16-16) at Atlanta (17-13)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -125, St. Louis +115, Total: 7
Two struggling divisional winners from 2013, the Cardinals and Braves, clash at Turner Field on Monday night when they open a three-game series.
St. Louis is certainly not playing baseball like it has been for the past decade and narrowly avoided a three-game sweep by the Cubs with a 5-4 win at Wrigley Field on Sunday night. That was the club's second victory in the past six games, and only fourth win in the past 11 contests. The Cardinals were tied with the Cubs going into the ninth on Sunday before C Yadier Molina (.336 BA) hit a two-run single. Matt Adams (.339 BA) has been doing his best to keep his team winning and went 5-for-9 in the series in Chicago. On the other hand, Atlanta is currently leading the NL East by 0.5 games, but is in danger of losing that lead soon, as it is scuffling through a six-game losing skid. In their weekend series against the Giants, the Braves scored just three total runs, to waste a strong showing by their pitching that allowed just nine runs in the three contests.
1B Freddie Freeman (.293 BA) and OF Justin Upton (.299 BA) are the only two players on the team hitting better than .260 while Justin and brother B.J. Upton have already combined to strike out 74 times in 215 at-bats (34.4%). Trying to get St. Louis back on track in this game will be RHP Shelby Miller (3-2, 3.15 ERA), while RHP Aaron Harang (3-2, 2.97 ERA) will look to halt Atlanta's six-game skid. The Cardinals would love to be playing these games at home since they are just 9-11 when playing on the road, while the Braves are 9-6 so far this year at home. The matchup between these clubs has been dominated by Atlanta over the past three seasons, as the team is 9-5 overall in that timeframe while going 5-2 at home. One thing going for St. Louis in Monday's matchup is its 27-19 record (.587) as an underdog of +100 to +150 since the start of last year. Meanwhile, the host Braves are 15-4 in home games against NL Central opponents in the same timeframe.
Shelby Miller burst on to the scene last season and has continued his success this year. Although he has a low 3.15 ERA, he is walking way too many batters (5.5 per nine innings) and has already allowed seven homers in just 34.1 innings on the mound. One thing going in his favor for the time being is that batters are hitting a low .237 BABIP while he is stranding 94.7% of runners on base; with both numbers most likely unsustainable. He earned a win in his last outing on Wednesday, going six innings against the Brewers, while allowing three runs on six hits (2 HR) and three walks while striking out just one. Miller has been stellar against Atlanta in two career starts, going 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. When he faced the Braves last August, Miller went seven strong frames while giving up just one run on three hits and no walks while striking out six batters.
Both 1B Freddie Freeman (2-for-6) and OF Jason Heyward (1-for-2, 1 walk) have hit a solo homer off of Miller, while C Evan Gattis, 2B Dan Uggla and OF B.J. Upton have gone a combined 0-for-9 with six strikeouts against him. The relievers for St. Louis are 1-5 with a 3.70 ERA and stellar 1.09 WHIP this year, and have been successful in 8-of-10 save chances. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (5.02 ERA, 8 saves) has not blown a save yet while striking out 19 batters with eight walks in 14.1 innings.
Aaron Harang was one of the best stories to start the season, allowing just three runs in his first five starts of the year (31.2 IP), but it all came crumbling down in his last start on Wednesday. When facing the Marlins that day, he gave up nine runs on 10 hits (2 HR) and one walk, while striking out four batters over 4.2 frames. Just like Miller, Harang has benefited from a low BABIP (.247), which is way below his career mark of .303. He’s had plenty of experience facing the Cardinals, starting against them 25 times and compiling a record of 7-13 (9-16 team record) with a 4.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Neither Harang or his team has earned a win in this series since May of 2009, as he has a no-decision in each of his past two starts, combining to go 14.1 innings while allowing four runs on 10 hits and five walks with an impressive 15 strikeouts.
Two of the Cardinals’ offseason acquisitions, OF Peter Bourjos (4-for-10, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and SS Jhonny Peralta (8-for-25, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 7 K’s), have had success against the veteran righty, while OF Matt Holliday is just 2-for-23 (.087) with 7 K’s versus Harang. The Braves bullpen has done well this year with a 6-3 record, 3.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while going 10-for-13 (77%) in save opportunities. Closer Craig Kimbrel (2.38 ERA, 8 saves) has gone 8-for-9 in his save chances and has struck out an incredible 24 batters in just 11.1 innings on the mound (19.1 K/9 rate).
Check out more MLB Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, May 5
Monday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Bedard Baffles the Bronx Bombers
Those who bet the trends were flummoxed by Tampa Bay lefty Erik Bedard, who threw six sensational innings in a 5-1 triumph over the New York Yankees. The journeyman entered the game 3-18 against the moneyline in his last 21 appearances, while going 7-3 O/U in his previous 10 outings.
Dog Day Afternoon
The underdogs enjoyed a strong Sunday, going 7-7 in afternoon action. It could have been an even more profitable day for the 'dogs, but favorites Oakland, Miami, Cincinnati and San Diego all scored single runs in the ninth inning to pull out victories.
Houston May Have a Problem
The Detroit Tigers welcome the Houston Astros to Comerica Park on Monday as a whopping -270 favorite - their biggest line of the young season. Detroit is 7-1 in its last eight games as a favorite of -200 or better.
* Rejuvenated Oakland Athletics left-hander Scott Kazmir has been automatic on the moneyline, going 6-0 this season and 8-0 since last September - all as a favorite. Kazmir's Athletics are a -190 fave for Monday's encounter with the visiting Seattle Mariners.
* Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Matt Garza has been as predictable as they come so far in 2014, going 3-0 O/U in three road starts and 0-3 O/U in three home outings. Garza and the Brewers (-160, 8) entertain the Arizona Diamondbacks.
* Detroit Tigers outfielder Rajai Davis has four multi-hit efforts in his past seven games; the Tigers have won all four while going 4-0 O/U in that stretch.
* The Cleveland Indians are 1-5 O/U in the last six games in which slugger Carlos Santana doesn't record a hit. Santana went 0-for-8 in back-to-back games against the Chicago White Sox over the weekend and is hitting .152 for the season.
Toronto Blue Jays (5-1 O/U): Injuries in the pitching staff and the gradual return to form of the potent lineup has the Blue Jays one of the hottest "over" tickets in the American League to date (19-11-1). Toronto (+104, 9) visits Philadelphia on Monday night.
Prop of the Day
The Under for combined hits for the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's is being offered at -120 at Bet365. The two American League West clubs have played six games thus far and have finished Under 15 combined hits four times.
* The San Francisco Giants have placed pitcher Matt Cain on the 15-day disabled list with a lacerated finger. Cain has been the Giants' least valuable starter since the middle of last season, going 4-16 against the moneyline in his previous 20 starts.
* Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and could miss up to four weeks. Bruce has just three home runs on the season, and his early-season struggles are a factor in the Reds sitting at -250 units through their first 31 games.
* Offense at Wrigley Field could be curtailed for Monday's game between the Chicago Cubs and the cross-town White Sox. Wind will blow in from center field at 10 mph; teams combined to bat just .246 in 10 games under those situations last season.
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