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2nd Round Betting Angles
2nd Round Betting Angles
2nd Round Betting Angles
By Marc Lawrence
With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.
Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends.
All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.
Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.
That’s because inferior teams are just 18-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.
Worse, if the inferior teams are laying 4.5 or fewer points they are just 9-21 ATS, including 3-19 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.
Portland – you’ve been warned.
Tripped Out Favorites
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games. Last year saw Oklahoma City laying 4.5 points to Memphis in this non-desirous role. The Grizzlies won the game, 88-84.
Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map - and out of the playoffs - going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.
Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58.6% ATS proposition, going 34-24 ATS.
Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 5-1 SU and ATS.
Running On Empty
Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.
That’s evident by a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.
The Pacers were put to the test last season and they ignited as 5.5-point favorites in a 98-79 annihilation of Atlanta.
FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.
Perfect 2nd Round Playoff Teams Trends
Brooklyn: Nets 5-0 ATS away vs. opponent off win of 7 or more points
Indiana: Pacers 0-4 ATS vs. opponent off SS SU underdog wins
Los Angeles: Clippers 0-5 SUATS off a win
Miami: Heat 7-0 ATS off a DD loss
Oklahoma City: Thunder 0-6 SUATS away off win of 9 more points
Portland: Trail Blazers 4-0 SUATS off a loss of 6 or more points
San Antonio: Spurs 0-4 SUATS as a favorite off a SU underdog win
Washington: Wizards 0-4 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points
There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.
Re: 2nd Round Betting Angles
Three betting trends for the second round of the NBA playoffs
By Brian Covert
Now that a monumental opening round is over, only eight teams still stand in the NBA Playoffs.
We look at the most recent second-round playoff results to highlight three trends that might give some pause for thought ahead of the next round.
Importance of home cooking
Make no bones about it, home court in the second round of the NBA Playoffs is big. Simply look at the fact that only three times in the last five years has a lower seed upset a higher seed in the league quarterfinals.
Of those 20 second-round series, only four went to a seventh game, when home court is most valuable. The most common outcome was a sweep which happened six times while a series went to five and six games five times.
In regards to the upsets, what’s not surprising is that two of the upsets happened in the league’s more wide open Western Conference where the No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies knocked off the No. 1 Oklahoma City last spring and the No. 3 Dallas Mavericks beat the No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers en route to the title in 2011.
The other upset also occurred last year when the No. 3 Indiana Pacers knocked off the No. 2 New York Knicks. This would seem to indicate that if an upset is going to happen it will be a three seed beating a two.
That trend has eyes on Oklahoma City versus the Los Angeles Clippers with the books placing the Thunder as -170 series favorites over Los Angeles, which is priced at +155.
Pattern to ride in No. 1 vs. No. 5?
We have two matchups in this year’s second round that pit a No. 1 seed versus a No. 5. If recent NBA history is any indication, things will not end well for the five seed. We have seen this matchup six times over the previous five seasons and only once - Memphis’ win over OKC last year - has the lower seed emerged victorious.
However, there may be some salvation for bettors as there is an interesting trend which has emerged over these five series. The No. 5 seed covers in the first game with the favorite covering the next two. This has been the pattern in four of the last five 1-vs-5 series.
As for the remaining games, there are no discernible trends. Game 4 is 2-3 ATS for the underdog while close-out games are 3-2 ATS for the favorites.
The Washington Wizards, a No. 5 seed in the East, followed this trend with a SU and ATS victory over the No. 1 Indiana Pacers Monday. The Portland Trail Blazers are the No. 5 seed facing a No. 1, set as 6.5-point road underdogs for Game 1 in San Antonio Tuesday.
Over and out
It’s not a huge trend but there may be some spots showing added Over value during the second round.
Over the last five years, there have been nine teams who finished the regular season in the Top 5 in points per game who made the second round. Those nine teams played 47 games in the NBA’s quarterfinals with the Over cashing in 26 of those games – 55 percent.
This record includes 16 games played by the Thunder, who saw the Over cash in nine. The Thunder, along with the Clippers and Blazers were in the Top 5 in the league in scoring this season.
The Thunder and Clippers topped the 213.5-point number in Game 1 of their second-round series opener Monday. Portland and San Antonio’s Game 1 has a 205.5-point total.