NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, April 28

NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, April 28

NBA Playoffs

Miami has won 18 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-7 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered 10 of last 13 series games- they made 29 of 64 from arc first three games. Miami subs are killing Charlotte's; in first three games, Miami's subs combined to be +137; Charlotte's bench was -78. Heat was -3 with Dwyane Wade on floor in first two games, +31 when he was off floor. Under is 26-15-1 in Charlotte home games.

Dallas subs were -33 in Game 3, but Carter hit 3-ball from left corner to win game, Mavs' second straight series win after they had lost ten in a row vs Spurs. Dallas is just 5-5 in last ten home games. Spurs lost four of last five road games but are 25-17 vs spread overall on foreign soil. Spurs lost last two games, despite shooting 50%+ from floor both times. Over is 25-17 in Dallas home games this year.

Pacers are now 8-11 in last 19 games, 8-26-1 against spread in last 35, as they head back home for pivotal Game 5. Indiana is 4-4 vs Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won eight of last twelve games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game 4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was just 15-50 from floor in last two games; Indiana blocked 11 shots in Game 4- they had give guys with two blocks each.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, April 28

Game of the Day: Spurs at Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (+4, 203)

The NBA playoffs have yielded unexpected results so far, with the Dallas Mavericks providing a stunning scenario in a best-of-seven matchup with top-seeded San Antonio in the West. The Mavericks look to build off a dramatic Game 3 win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday. After snapping the Spurs' 16-game home winning streak in Game 2, Dallas got a last-second 3-pointer by Vince Carter to steal a 109-108 win in Game 3 on Saturday.

Monta Ellis scored 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter for the Mavericks, who also won at home against San Antonio for the first time in over two years. Ellis was part of an eighth-seeded Golden State team that knocked out No. 1 Dallas in 2007, so he understands the mentality that is necessary at this point in time. "We're not getting ahead of ourselves," he said after Saturday's victory. "We're not going to get big-headed because we've won two games."

LINE HISTORY: The Mavericks opened as 4-point home dogs. The total opened at 203.

WHY BET THE SPURS: San Antonio has struggled to get consistent production from the supporting cast around the star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili - who have combined to average 56 points on 53.8 percent shooting in the series. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter shook off their struggles to combine for 31 points, 18 rebounds and six steals in Game 3, but fellow starter Danny Green continued to be a non-factor, making one of his five shot attempts in a rather insignificant 13 minutes. Green averaged 12.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting versus Dallas during the regular season, but has only three baskets in 59 minutes in the series.

WHY BET THE MAVERICKS: Dallas was outrebounded by San Antonio in all four regular-season meetings and again in Game 1 before winning the battle on the glass in Game 2 and holding its own in Game 3, when the Spurs had a 36-35 edge. Some of the credit for the turnaround goes to Samuel Dalembert, who grabbed 6.8 rebounds per game during the regular season but has averaged 8.3 in the series, including 10 to go along with four blocked shots on Saturday. Dalembert also went 5-for-5 from the line, including two big ones in the final minute, as Dallas bumped its free-throw percentage for the series to 83.3 percent, compared to 72.1 for San Antonio.


* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of the wagers are on the Spurs -4.

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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

Indiana shooting a smart 48.1% from the filed Saturday afternoon while holding Hawks to 35.7% shooting knotted up the series at 2-2 with a 91-88 victory to regain home court advantage. Pacers returning to Indianapolis to play game five of their first round Eastern Conference series vs Hawks have been pegged 7-point favorites. Pacers who seem to have found their defensive MOJO and back on familiar hardwood it is safe to say Indiana with the best SU home record in the EC walk off with the 'W'. However, one has to be a bit uncomfortable laying the points with Pacers being a terrible play of late entering on a 12-33-1 ATS slide including 4-10-1 against the betting line the past fifteen as 7 or more point home chalk. Throw in Zig-Zag working to perfection in this series, Pacers 1-8 ATS following an ATS win, Hawks' 7-3-1 ATS on the road when revenging a previous loss the Pacers are in dangerous betting territory.

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Monday's Playoff Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Heat (-7½, 188) at Bobcats

Miami leads series, 3-0

In the least surprising outcome so far in the NBA playoffs, the Heat are one win away from sweeping the upstart Bobcats and advancing to the second round. Charlotte has still never won a playoff game in its 10 seasons in the league (0-7), as Miami used a 21-6 run at the end of the first half in Saturday’s Game 3 triumph to take the commanding 3-0 series edge.

LeBron James scored the final nine points of the first half in Saturday’s 98-85 victory to easily cash as 4½-point road favorites for the 19th straight win over the Bobcats since 2010. After failing to cover in Game 2 as double-digit favorites, the Heat improved to 2-1 ATS through the first three games of this series, while covering all three contests at Time Warner Cable Arena this season. Only three Heat players scored in double-figures in Game 3 (led by James’ 30), while Miami and Charlotte combined to score 32 points in the final quarter to finish ‘under’ the total of 187½.

Following the loss in Game 3, the Bobcats dropped to 5-2 ATS the last seven games in the home underdog role. The ‘under’ has hit in four of the past five contests at Time Warner Cable Arena, while limiting four opponents in this span to less than 100 points. Miami has drilled the ‘under’ in four of the last six road contests, as five of those opponents were held to 98 points or fewer.

Hawks at Pacers (-7, 186½)

Series tied at 2-2

Atlanta had an opportunity to throw a knock-out punch on top-seeded Indiana in Game 4, but the Pacers hit a pair of three-pointers in the final two minutes to seal a 91-88 victory on Saturday to even the series at two apiece. Paul George and David West drilled three-pointers to overcome a 10-point deficit and save Indiana’s season, while the Pacers covered as 2½-point favorites to regain the home-court advantage.

Indiana’s defense stepped up in the second half, limiting Atlanta to 40 points and 35% shooting from the floor to square the series. Following an ‘over’ in the series opener, each of the last three games between the Hawks and Pacers have finished ‘under’ the total. Frank Vogel’s club will look to turn around its pointspread problems as a home favorite, posting a 2-10 ATS record the last 12 when laying points at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Since April 4, the Hawks own a 9-3 ATS record the last 12 games, while cashing in five of its past six contests away from Philips Arena. However, Atlanta has the odds stacked against them tonight, at least according to last season’s 4-1 SU/ATS record by home teams in Game 5 of a playoff series tied at 2-2. Included in that dominating mark by home clubs was the 106-83 rout by the Pacers over the Hawks in Game 5 as seven-point favorites, as Indiana would eventually win the series, 4-2.

Spurs (-4, 203) at Mavericks

Dallas leads series, 2-1

The top overall seed in the NBA needs to get on track on fast, as San Antonio looks to even up its first round series with rival Dallas tonight. Vince Carter’s three-pointer at the buzzer in Game 3 gave Dallas its second straight win over San Antonio following 10 consecutive losses to the Spurs in a 109-108 triumph as 3½-point underdogs. Both teams shot over 50% from the floor, while Monta Ellis paced the Mavericks with a game-high 29 points.

San Antonio has lost consecutive games for just the second time since the end of January, as one of those losing streaks came at the end of the regular season when the Spurs had nothing to play for. Gregg Popovich’s team has failed to cover a game against the Mavs in this series, while posting a 3-7 ATS record since a 19-game winning streak. Eight times the Spurs have allowed at least 100 points since that hot streak, while allowing at least 109 points in back-to-back contests for the first time all season.

Dallas enters tonight’s action losers of six straight games off a home victory dating back to March 11, but Rick Carlisle’s team has covered three consecutive times in the role of a home underdog. The Mavs have eclipsed the 100-point mark in each of the last 10 games at the American Airlines Center, resulting in an 8-2 record to the ‘over.’

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Monday's NBA Playoff Picks
By: Craig Williams

A trio of NBA playoff games is on tap for Monday night. Heat-Bobcats (7 p.m. ET) and Spurs-Mavericks (9:30 p.m. ET) comprise a TNT double-header, while Hawks-Pacers (8 p.m. ET) airs on NBA TV.

Miami Heat (-7.5, 187) at Charlotte Bobcats

The Heat have a chance to complete the sweep of the Bobcats and advance into the next round, which would afford them some extra rest.

LeBron James led the charge in Game 3 with 30 points, 10 boards and six assists, and helped the Heat build an 86-65 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. "We were locked in on what needs to be done and our keys to win this game," said James following the win.

He's now 18-0 against the Cats since joining the Heat in 2010.

The Heat are 2-1 ATS through the series' first three contests, but they were just 4.5-point favorites Saturday night in Charlotte -- the Game 4 point spread marks a major adjustment by the betting market.

The Linemakers' lean: The fat lady is tuning up and the buzzards are circling Charlotte, which is one reason the Heat are favored 4 points over what the power ratings say it should be (the hobbled Al Jefferson is another reason). Even with a hefty number like 7.5, though, we can’t recommend taking the home dog here. As reality sets in with the Bobcats that their season is nearing an end, the slumped shoulders and drained body language is good enough for 4 extra points by the Heat. Miami has covered all three games at Charlotte this season, but the better value may rest with the total. Look for a much faster pace because of the series situation. The only play is OVER 187.

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7, 186.5)

Not too long ago it looked like the Hawks were playing themselves out of postseason contention. Even with their strong finish, and in spite of the Pacers' struggles down the stretch, many still expected Indiana to advance in five.

The series, tied at two games apiece, heads back to Indiana, where the first two games split SU, ATS and O/U. For the series, each team has covered two games, and three of the four have stayed UNDER.

The Linemakers' lean: While it's not hard to envision the Pacers winning by double digits Monday, we're not exactly comfortable laying this number. What looks like a more favorable proposition is the total staying UNDER, like it has the past three games. You can feel at least some sense of urgency by the Pacers to slow things down and create offense with good defense -- the strategy they used in the first half of the season. You also have the Hawks playing their best ball of the season coinciding with staying UNDER in nine of their past 12 games. The play is UNDER 186.5.

San Antonio Spurs (-4, 203.5) at Dallas Mavericks

The Pacers aren't the only No. 1 seed that finds itself in some first-round trouble. The Spurs, who had beaten the Mavericks nine straight times heading into the playoffs, lost home-court advantage in Game 2, and were stabbed by a Vince Carter dagger in Game 3. Carter's game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer gave the Mavs a 2-1 series advantage and guaranteed two more games in Big D.

Following the game, Carter discussed his big bucket, "I don't mind taking the game-winning shot. I don't mind missing them, and dealing with. So I think having that mentality helps me."

Of course, that moment may not have been possible had Monta Ellis (29 points on 12 of 22 shooting) not delivered a monster game to keep the Mavs within striking distance.

The Mavs have covered all three games this series.

The Linemakers' lean: While the Spurs losing four of their last seven regular-season games did not bother us, it’s obvious there was some rust in the system come playoff time, and the Mavericks have taken advantage. Because of a respected Spurs squad being down in the series -- and desperate -- bettors will have to lay a premium of about 2 points. But we’re okay with that. The Spurs are one of the best road cover teams in the NBA and because they’ve been through much tougher playoff situations as a group through the years, this one shouldn’t faze them. Look for the Spurs to bounce back big, and laying -190 on them to win the series is decent value if believing the Spurs will win Game 4. The play is on the Spurs -4.

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