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NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 27

NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 27

NBA Playoffs

Chicago is weird NBA team; different guy takes most shots every game; Dunleavy scored 35 in Game 3, making 8-10 from arc. Washington won six of last seven games overall, with last five going over total. Chicago lost three of last five visits here, losing by 13-4-3 points. Bulls lost four of last six games, with five of last six going over total. Favorites are 7-19 vs spread; over is 17-9 in NBA playoffs so far this month.

Golden State was just 6-31 from arc in Game 3, lost by only hoop; they ain't going 6-31 again. Home side won eight of last ten series games; Clippers lost five of last six games in Oakland- nine of last 11 series games went over total. LA won nine of its last 13 games, with ten of those 13 going over the total. Warriors won six of last ten games overall; under is 48-35 in their games this year, 23-17 at home.

All three Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 7 or less points. DeRozan scored 30 points in each of last two games, but is just 20-56 from floor in series. Toronto is -25 in turnovers (54-29) in series. Nets are 18-68 from arc in series. Toronto lost five of its last six visits here overall, two of three this season. Nets lost five of last eight games, but are 24-18 vs spread at home this season. Over is 8-5 in east, 9-4 in west.

Aldridge scored 23 in Game 3, after he had 89 points, 26 boards in pair of road wins to open series; Portland won 11 of last 13 games; they've won four of last five home games, all decided by 6 or less points, but Houston won six of their last eight viits here. Blazers had lost five of last six games with Rockets before this series- last ten games in series went over total. Harden is 27-82 from floor this series, not good for Rockets.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 27

Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 214.5)

Somebody named Troy Daniels kept Houston alive and the Rockets now attempt to even the best-of-seven Western Conference series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. Daniels, a recent D-League call-up, knocked down the tiebreaking 3-pointer in overtime as the Rockets avoided falling behind 3-0 in the series with a dramatic 121-116 victory. James Harden set a personal playoff high with 37 points while Houston limited Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to 23 points after he combined for 89 in the first two games.

The Rockets can regain homecourt advantage with a Game 4 victory and coach Kevin McHale isn’t ready to proclaim his team is back in the series until it wins another one. “We haven’t done anything yet,” McHale said after Friday’s victory. “We’ve won one game. But it feels a lot better than losing.” Portland knows what’s at stake and would prefer to go back to Houston with a chance to clinch the series. “It’s the playoffs and nobody said we were going to come out and sweep them,” point guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “We’re lucky that we were able to win two games in Houston and be in the position we’re in right now.”

LINE HISTORY: The Blazers opened as 2-point home faves. The total opened 216, but has been bet down to 215.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Home court has meant nothing in this series so far, but that's nothing new as the visitor is 5-3 SU in the last eight matchups between these two budding rivals. All three games have been barn-burners to this point, and we can expect more of the same on Sunday. The Rockets know they can ill afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series - three straight wins over a quality opponent like the Blazers would be an uphill battle to say the least. The line is sharp with Portland laying a bucket; I prefer the Rockets moneyline, noting that the ATS winner has gone 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings in this series." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Daniels played just 75 minutes in the regular season – 44 of them in the meaningless finale – and didn’t play in the first two games of the playoff series. But he logged 20 minutes in Game 3 and was in at the finish because forward Chandler Parsons had fouled out. His third 3-pointer of the contest was the decisive one with 11 seconds left, changing the status of the undrafted free agent from Virginia Commonwealth from unknown commodity to playoff hero. “As a rookie, you never know when you’re going to play,” Daniels told reporters. “When (McHale) called my name, I was ready to play. That just shows how much confidence he has in me.”

WHY BET THE BLAZERS: Aldridge was just 8-of-22 shooting in Game 3 as the Rockets started a second big man in Omer Asik and repeatedly hounded Aldridge with either Asik or Dwight Howard. Aldridge only had four first-half points before finding some opportunities to get loose in the second half but wasn’t the dominating force he was in the first two games. “The rotated big to big,” Aldridge said afterward, “so they made it a point to take me out and not let me get up a lot of shots and not find a good rhythm.”


* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Rockets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

63 percent of wagers are on the Blazers at -2 while 59 percent of wagers are on the Over 214.5.

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Clips look for 3-1 lead

L.A. Clippers (59-26) at Golden State (52-33) Line: Los Angeles -2.5, Total: 209.5

The Clippers look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Sunday when they visit the Warriors in Game 4 of their first-round series.

When Los Angeles was up by 18 points in Game 3, it started to look just like the second game where it won a 40-point blowout, but Golden State finally started making some plays in the fourth quarter, storming back into the game just to miss a shot at the buzzer down by two points. Los Angeles ended up winning the game by a score of 98-96, narrowly failing to cover the 2.5-point spread in a game where it made 46.5% FG. The Warriors, who have won most of their games this season from behind the arc, were just 6-for-31 (19%) from three-point range and also struggled from the free-throw line, going 16-for-24 (67%) as a team. They did distribute the ball well though, with six different players having 10+ points in the contest. The win for L.A. brought its road record on the season to 24-18 SU (25-16-1 ATS). For Golden State, it now owns a 27-15 SU record when playing in front of its fans, but raised its ATS record to 20-21-1 overall on the season.

The Clippers winning on Thursday was a big victory as a road team, since prior to the postseason, the home team in this matchup had won seven straight games SU (6-1 ATS), but now each club has grabbed a road victory early on in this series. Going back to the start of the 2011-12 campaign, the Warriors have a record of 8-7 SU (9-6 ATS) when facing Los Angeles, while the Over is 10-5. The Clips benefit from the fact that underdogs coming off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.), are just 15-50 ATS (23%) since 1996, Golden State falls into the category of home teams going 46-19 ATS (71%) since 1996 when coming off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) and a line of +3 to -3. C Andrew Bogut (ribs) will continue to miss time for the Warriors, and is the only significant injury for either team.

After dominating on the offensive side of the ball all season long, the Clippers showed that they still had it with 138 points in Game 2, but scored just 98 points while letting their defense do the work in the Game 3 victory. PF Blake Griffin (27.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG in playoffs) did not start out the series well, fouling out in 19 minutes in the first game, but followed that up with a 35-point performance in Game 2 and 32 points on Thursday. He hit plenty of clutch shots down the stretch as well, but was just 2-for-9 from the charity stripe. If he can continue to put forth dominating games like this, it will be hard to see Golden State pulling out any more victories.

PG Chris Paul (18.3 PPG, 9.3 APG, 3.7 SPG in playoffs) missed 1-of-2 free throws late in the game, which would have put L.A. up by three, but it ended up not making a difference, as he still had a double-double (15 points, 10 assists) for the second consecutive game. Paul has now averaged 20.7 PPG (48% FG), 9.5 APG and 2.3 SPG over his 43 career postseason contests. C DeAndre Jordan (12.0 PPG, 15.0 RPG, 5.0 BPG in playoffs) has been very consistent so far in this series with five blocks in each game, while putting up his best effort in other categories (14 points, 22 rebounds) in the close victory Thursday night. His great play against Golden State comes as no surprise, as he scored 10.3 PPG (64% FG) to go along with 15.3 RPG and 3.5 BPG over four games during the regular season.

The Warriors made 38% of their threes this season (4th in league), but are hitting these shots at a paltry 27% clip so far in the playoffs, and poor shooting was a big part of the reason that they lost the game on Thursday night. Another big problem they are having so far is turnovers as they have committed 22 turnovers per game so far in the postseason, which is the most among the 16 playoff teams. PG Stephen Curry (18.0 PPG, 10.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in playoffs) has not been able to put a full game together at his usual level, but was a great distributor on Thursday, getting 15 assists while going only 5-for-12 from the field. He needs to attack more for the team to have any chance, and he has done well against the Clippers in the past, averaging 19.1 PPG (48% FG) and 6.4 APG while shooting an incredible 50% from long range in 19 career games in the matchup.

SG Klay Thompson (18.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG in playoffs) hit just 2-of-11 shots from behind the arc in Game 3, but still managed 26 points and is leading the team in scoring so far in the playoffs. He is doing better this year than last postseason though, as he averaged 15.2 PPG (44% FG) in 41 MPG then and is playing less time this year (34.0 MPG), but scoring more due to his ability to get to the free-throw line. PF David Lee (14.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG in playoffs) missed some time at the end of the season with a hurt hamstring and has not looked to be his usual self over the past two games. He had just 11 points and four rebounds in the big 40-point loss in Game 2, and put up a below-average effort in Thursday’s loss as well with only 12 points and nine boards.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 27

NBA Playoff Picks - Game 4 action kicks off Sunday afternoon
By: Michael Robinson

Underdogs have been barking big-time in the NBA playoffs with a 17-4-1 against-the-spread record through Friday. The trend looks to continue on Sunday with four more crucial games -- two in the afternoon and two more in the evening.

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards (-2.5, 182)

Chicago likely saved its season on Friday with a 100-97 win as 2.5-point dogs. Mike Dunleavy had one of the best games of his career with 35 points, including 8-of-10 from three-point land. The Bulls starters were previously struggling, with the early-season loss of Derrick Rose really starting to be felt.

The road team has won and covered all three game this series. The OVER is also 3-0.

The Wizards saw their six-game ATS winning streak snapped. They are still in the driver's seat up 2-1 and have a great shot for their first playoff series win since 2005, when the opponent was also Chicago.

Washington needs young guards Bradley Beal and John Wall to shoot better. The duo has combined for about 40 percent from the field this series. If they do play well, it will take another heroic performance from Dunleavy or someone else to beat them.

The Linemakers' lean: The Bulls finally got the Wizards to come down to earth in Game 3 by holding them to 43 percent shooting, which was the Bulls' average allowed this season. Chicago got their best offensive output of the series, shooting 47 percent, and had Mike Dunleavy bring some long distance offense to the table, but they still only won by three. And when considering the Wizards were without big man Nene down the stretch, and the Bulls were still fortunate to win the game, there is a lot to ponder before wagering on Game 4. With Nene in the game, the Wizards are a dynamic team and create all kinds of matchup problems for the best defense in the league. All three of the playoff games have gone OVER the total despite the Bulls playing their best in Game 3. Look for the Wizards to bounce back and for the flow to be at their pace which means OVER again.

L.A. Clippers (-2.5, 209.5) at Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles did just enough to sneak out a 98-96 road win on Thursday, although failing to cover as 3-point favorites. That makes Sunday a must-win for Golden State, who can't afford to head back to Southern California down 3-1.

Clippers' power forward Blake Griffin has taken over the last two contests at 33.5 PPG. The only game they lost this series was Game 1 (109-105), when foul trouble limited Griffin to 19 minutes. He's also being helped inside by center DeAndre Jordan, who did his best Moses Malone impersonation with 22 boards in Game 3.

The Warriors are overmatched physically up front with center Andrew Bogut (ribs) missing the first three games and out indefinitely. Guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson need to be hot in the same game, which has yet to happen in this series. The team is a woeful 10-of-50 (20 percent) from beyond the arc the last two games.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six games for both teams, although going UNDER the 212-point total last game.

The Linemakers' lean: The problem with the Warriors is that they live and die by the three-point shot, and when it’s flowing, they’re hard to beat. But when it’s not, they can be beaten by just about anyone. In Game 3, it wasn’t flowing and they made only 6-of-31 attempts, but they still only lost by two points. Yet, somehow through good defense and a 52-47 rebounding edge, they clawed back into the game and almost won. Look for the Warriors to play much better this time around, and you might want to wait as long as possible to bet it because the number should go higher. The play is on the Warriors, hoping to get +3.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 27

NBA Playoff Picks - Postseason action continues into Sunday evening
By: Michael Robinson

Sunday's NBA playoff action continues with a pair of evening contests.

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets (-4, 192)

The Nets took a 2-1 series lead with a 102-98 home win on Friday as 4.5-point favorites. They led by 15 points (93-78) with about four minutes left before a 20-9 Raptors run made it close and gave them the cover.

Toronto has been a great ATS road team all year at 27-15. DeMar DeRozan easily leads the team at 24.7 PPG this series, but it's taking him a lot of shots at 35.7 percent shooting from the field. He needs to be more efficient with point guard Kyle Lowry also streaky.

Brooklyn is very tough at the Barclays Center, sporting a 15-game winning streak there that ended on April 11th. The home ATS mark is 24-18.

Nets' guard Joe Johnson has almost matched DeRozan's scoring at 23.7 PPG, and done it while shooting over 60 percent from the field. That kind of production makes them hard to beat, especially at home.

The Linemakers' lean: The Raptors fought back strong in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and got the cover of a game that they had no business cashing in. Outside of rebounding, where there is a huge gap with Toronto crashing the boards, the Nets have played smart basketball and have turned the ball over only 29 times between the three games. Toronto has been one of the best road cover teams this season, but laying only -4 at home with the Nets looks to be the way to go. The play is on Brooklyn.

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5, 216)

The Rockets also likely saved their season on Friday with a 121-116 OT win as 2-point dogs. A key move was starting Omer Asik at power forward, who helped limit LaMarcus Aldridge to 23 points after 44.5 PPG the first two. They also played more pick-and-roll offense with James Harden having his biggest game of the series (37 points).

The road team has won all three games this series, also going 3-0 ATS. The OVER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between the teams.

Portland is still up 2-1 and needs to remain calm, hoping that Game 3 was the Rockets' best shot. Aldridge (8-of-22 shooting last game) should bounce back on Sunday and Damian Lillard (26.3 PPG this series) is getting a break with Houston point guard Patrick Beverley playing through a knee sprain.

The Linemakers' lean: The Rockets finally showed some toughness in Game 3 and looked like the team from February and March that was giving the rest of the league a hard time. That was until Dwight Howard got hurt and missed eight games, and then played sparingly in the final three regular season contests. In Game 3, they looked like the aggressors and James Harden made a huge impact even though he shot only 13-of-35 from the field. They also had the benefit of not having LaMarcus Aldridge put over 40 on them like in the first two games. We like the Rockets to keep their rhythm going and take Game 4, and there is some value with Houston to win the series at +170. Also, all seven of their meetings this season have gone OVER, so why stop now, especially when the total hasn’t been adjusted too much along the way. The plays are Houston +2.5 and OVER 215.5.

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