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NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
Miami has won 17 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-6 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered nine of last 12 series games- they made 20 of 46 from arc in first two games. Miami subs are killing Charlotte's; in two games, Miami's subs combined to be +128; Charlotte's bench was -99. Heat was -15 with Dwyane Wade on floor in first two games, +30 when he was off floor. Under is 25-15-1 in Charlotte home games.
Mavericks forced 22 turnovers (+15) in Game 2 to snap ten-game skid against San Antonio; they were up 10 at Alamo in Game 1, so they've got to have confidence coming home, even though they're just 4-5 in last nine home games. Duncan had only 11 points last game after dominating Game 1; Spurs lost three of last four road games but are 25-16 vs spread overall on foreign soil. Over is 24-17 in Dallas home games this year.
Pacers are now 7-11 in last 18 games, 7-26-1 against spread in last 34, as they often look like they'd be just as happy if season ended. Indiana is 3-4 vs Atlanta this season, 1-2 here- they've lost 14 of last 16 visits to Atlanta. Hawks won eight of last eleven games. Scola has 37 points in 39:00 off bench in last two games; George shot 3-11 from floor in Game 3- he is the Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was just 6-20 in Game 3.
Thunder lost five of last six visits to Memphis; their bench is 14-56 in series (25%!!!!), as Ibaka has been only scoring option after Westbrook, Durant. Griz covered three of last eight games as an underdog. Grizzlies won seven of last eight games; they lost Game 1 vs Thunder LY, then won series in 5- their bench made 29-53 shots in last two games, after going 9-28 in Game 1. Favorites are 9-13 SU, 5-17 vs spread; over is 16-6 in NBA playoffs so far this month. .
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
Saturday's Early Action
By Brian Edwards
Pacers at Hawks
Atlanta (40-45 straight up, 40-44-1 against the spread) took a 2-1 series lead over Indiana with Thursday's 98-85 win as a two-point home underdog. Jeff Teague was the catalyst, scoring a game-high 22 points while also dishing out 10 assists. With the exception of the second half of Game 2, the Wake Forest product has dominated this series by getting into the lane off of dribble penetration whenever he feels like it. Kyle Korver added 20 points in the Game 3 triumph, knocking down 4-of-7 attempts from 3-point range. Paul Millsap made just 3-of-11 shots from the floor, but he found a way to produce 14 points, 14 rebounds and four assists.
Paul George's lockdown defense on Teague in the second half of Game 2 was pivotal. However, when he got his second personal foul very early in the first quarter of Game 3, that strategy went out the window for Frank Vogel. George never got into a rhythm offensively and scored only 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting from the field. He did pull down 14 boards and handed out four helpers. If there was a bright side to Game 3 for Indiana, it was the inspired play of Lance Stephenson, who tallied 21 points, 13 boards, four assists and three steals.
Atlanta only shot 38.4 percent from the field and got out-rebounded by a 51-41 margin in Game 3. Nevertheless, it got into the win column in large measure thanks to converting 30-of-37 attempts from the free-throw line.
These long-time Eastern Conference adversaries have now faced each other seven times this year, and the Hawks have prevailed in four of those meetings.
For Game 4, most books have installed Indiana (57-28 SU, 39-45-1 ATS) as a two-favorite with a total of 186.5. Bettors can take the Hawks to win outright for a +115 return (risk $100 to win $115).
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag has the Pacers as -140 favorites, while the Hawks are +120 underdogs.
In its last eight games as an underdog, Atlanta owns a 7-1 spread record with six outright victories.
The Hawks are 26-16 SU and 22-20 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 21-21 SU and 17-25 ATS on the road.
The 'over' is 45-39-1 overall for Atlanta, but the 'under' is 22-20 in its home games.
The 'under' is 46-36-3 overall for Indiana, 20-19-3 in its road assignments.
The 'under' is 2-1 in this series so far, cashing in back-to-back contests. The combined scoring outputs have been 194, 186 and 183.
Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
Spurs at Mavericks
Dallas (50-34 SU, 46-38 ATS) pulled even in this best-of-seven series by cruising to a 113-92 win in Wednesday's Game 2 at San Antonio. The Mavs won outright as 7.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a tasty +340 payout (paid $340 on $100 wagers). They shot 48.9 percent from the field, won the rebounding battle (35-32) and forced 22 turnovers while committing just seven.
Monta Ellis scored a team-high 21 points in the Game 2 victory. Shawn Marion added 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting from the field. He also had five rebounds, three steals and a pair of assists. Devin Harris, who had 19 points and five assists in Game 1, had another stellar performance in Game 2, finishing with 18 points, five assists and four rebounds. Harris made 7-of-9 shots from the field.
In the losing effort, Manu Ginobili scored a game-high 27 points in just 22 minutes of playing time off the bench. Ginobili made 9-of-12 attempts from the field and drained 5-of-6 shots from beyond the arc. He was terrific in Game 1, too, scoring 17 points and pulling down six rebounds.
Tony Parker scored just 12 points in Game 2 and perhaps more disconcerting for Gregg Popovich, he had as many assists (three) as turnovers (three). After producing 27 points and seven rebounds in Game 1, Tim Duncan finished with only 11 points and seven boards in the Game 2 loss.
For Game 3 back in Dallas, most spots have made San Antonio (63-21 SU, 45-39 ATS) a 3.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 202.5. Gamblers can take the Mavs on the money line for a +145 return (risk $10 to win 145).
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag: San Antonio -420, Dallas +330.
Dallas has been a home underdog seven times this season, going 2-5 both SU and ATS. The Mavs are 26-15 SU and 17-24 ATS at home.
San Antonio has been dynamite on the road all year, going 30-11 SU and 25-16 versus the number. The Spurs have seen the 'over' hit at a 23-18 clip in their road assignments.
The 'over' has gone 24-17 for Dallas in its home games.
Dallas has failed to cover the number in five consecutive home games. In addition, the Spurs have won four straight at Dallas both SU and ATS.
These teams have now faced each other six times this season, with San Antonio going 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS. The 'over' is 4-2 in those encounters, cashing in three of the last four meetings.
Despite losing homecourt advantage against the eighth-seeded Mavs, San Antonio maintains the second-shortest future odds (behind the Heat's +160 price) at Sportsbook.ag (+340). The Mavs are 60/1 longshots.
TNT will have the telecast at 4:35 p.m. Eastern.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
Saturday's Late Action
Miami (56-28) at Charlotte (43-41)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -5.5, Total: 188
The Bobcats look to avoid a 3-0 series deficit on Saturday when they host the Heat in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series.
Miami had a double-digit lead going into the second half of Game 2, but Charlotte battled its way back before eventually losing 101-97 to suffer an 18th straight defeat in this series. But now the series shifts to Time Warner Cable Arena, where the Bobcats are 25-16 SU (24-15-2 ATS) this season, while the Heat are only 22-19 SU (19-20-2 ATS) on the road this season.
And despite Miami's SU series dominance, which includes a 9-3 ATS mark in the past dozen meetings overall, the teams are an even 9-9-1 ATS in 19 all-time games in Charlotte, with the past five meetings all finishing Over the total. Both teams have positive betting trends here, as in the past two seasons, the Heat are 32-18 ATS (64%) after failing to cover in three of their previous four games. They are also facing an opponent that is 13-25 ATS (34%) after playing two consecutive road games over the past two seasons. However, the Bobcats are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season, and are also 33-22 ATS (60%) as an underdog this season.
Although Charlotte PF Josh McRoberts avoided a suspension for an elbow to the throat of LeBron James, teammate C Al Jefferson will continue to play at less than 100 percent due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. Miami has no significant injuries
SF LeBron James (29.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) has had his fingerprints all over this series so far. Whenever Miami needs him to make a play, James is finding a teammate or attacking the rim. The Bobcats do not have an answer for the forward, and his 32 points, eight assists, six rebounds and four steals in Game 2 is just a sign of what’s to come in the next few games.
PF Chris Bosh (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.5 SPG in series) finally had a big game for Miami on Wednesday with 20 points (8-of-11 FG, 4-of-5 threes), five rebounds and two blocks in 32 minutes. The Heat will need Bosh to knock down his jumpers throughout the rest of the playoffs, as he is their only big man capable of putting up points.
SG Dwyane Wade (19.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG in series) didn’t need to do much for the Heat to win Game 2, finishing with just 15 points (4-of-10 FG), six rebounds, four turnovers and a poor rating of minus-9 in 35 minutes of play.
PG Mario Chalmers (9.0 PPG, 2.5 APG in series) played excellent defense on Kemba Walker in Game 2, and also knocked down his shots when he needed to. He finished the game with 11 points (3-of-7 FG, 2-of-4 threes), three assists and just one turnover in 30 minutes and gave a big boost for the team on both ends of the floor. The Miami bench also played well on Wednesday, as the five reserves combined for 21 points (8-of-18 FG), 13 rebounds and a stellar +51 rating.
Charlotte played an excellent second half in Game 2, but is now in a must-win situation for Game 3. C Al Jefferson (18.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG in series) has been dealing with a lingering foot injury but still logged 40 minutes on Wednesday and finished with 18 points and 13 rebounds (5 offensive). He is the best post player in this series, and a guy that the Bobcats can dump the ball into and rely on for offense whenever they need it.
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (13.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG in series) had one of his best games as a pro in Game 2 with 22 points (9-of-13 FG), 10 rebounds and a +11 rating in 34 minutes. The Bobcats rely on Kidd-Gilchrist for his defense, but he was able to find holes attacking the Miami big men, and if this continues, Charlotte has a real chance of getting back into this series. While Kidd-Gilchrist made 69% of his shots in Game 2, the rest of his team shot only 37% from the floor.
But for the Bobcats to win, PG Kemba Walker (18.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG in series) must break out of his shooting slump. Walker has not been the same since returning from a groin injury, making just 18-of-58 FG (31%) in four games. But he has kept the defense honest this series by knocking down 7-of-15 threes, and his decision making in Game 2 (8 assists, 2 turnovers) was much better than what he did in the series opener (6 assists, 6 turnovers). SG Gerald Henderson (10.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG in series) has also been off the mark at 40% FG and 0-for-6 threes in the postseason. During the regular season, he averaged 14.0 PPG on 43% FG and 35% threes.
Oklahoma City (60-25) at Memphis (52-33)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma City -2.5, Total: 188
The Thunder are in a must-win situation as they look to avoid a 3-1 series hole against the Grizzlies on Saturday night.
Oklahoma City was down 17 points midway through the fourth quarter in Game 3, but battled back to tie it on a Russell Westbrook three-pointer. A four-point play by Westbrook sent the game to overtime, but the Grizzlies were able to get their second consecutive overtime victory in the series, prevailing 98-95. The Thunder need bigger performances from their supporting players, as they got only 35 points from everybody else besides Westbrook and Kevin Durant. This is adding pressure to the duo as they combined to go just 17-of-53 from the field and 4-of-21 from the three-point line).
One positive note the Thunder (44-40-1 ATS overall, 20-22 ATS on road) can take out of the game was the way they defended at the end of regulation, which allowed them to get back into the game. However, for the team to win, they will have to defend the frontcourt of the Grizzlies much better early in the game. Memphis (38-44-3 ATS overall, 18-23-1 ATS at home) was able to outscore Oklahoma City 62-48, in the paint, despite a tough night from Zach Randolph (16 points, 5-of-20 FG). Randolph got off to a nice start in the first half, but had a stretch in the second half where he missed eight consecutive shots. Despite not shooting free throws well in the regular season, the Grizzlies once again connected on a good percentage from the free-throw line in Game 3 (12-of-15).
However, the biggest reason why Memphis was able to get the win was a huge performance from its reserves, outscoring the Thunder’s bench, 34-9. If that happens again, it will be very difficult for Oklahoma City to avoid a 3-1 hole. Memphis holds a 13-6 ATS advantage (10-9 SU) in this series over the past three seasons, including 5-3 (SU and ATS) at FedEx Forum.
Although the Grizzlies are just 6-23 ATS (21%) after three straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers this season, they are also 39-24 ATS (62%) versus good shooting teams (46%+ FG) over the past two seasons.
Despite a very tough offensive night for the Thunder on Thursday, the team had a chance to win the game in the final minutes. SF Kevin Durant (33.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 4.7 APG in series) finished with 30 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in Game 3, but really struggled from the field, missing on all eight of his three-point attempts. He was getting good looks, but at one point in the second half, he got an offensive rebound and missed a two-foot shot, which showed what kind of night it was for Durant. While he struggled offensively, he played a terrific defensive game. There were many times when Durant and PG Russell Westbrook (27.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 5.0 APG in series) weren’t on the same page when trying to get each other the ball. Look for the Thunder to run a lot more pick-and-roll with their two stars, rather than posting Durant against Tony Allen. Westbrook at times was dominant in Game 3, evidenced by his 30 points, 13 rebounds, but took some bad shots when the Thunder were making their comeback.
PF Serge Ibaka (14.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG) was the only other player to reach double figures for Oklahoma City with 12 points and five rebounds.
Guys like PG Derek Fisher (4.7 PPG on 36% FG in series), SF Caron Butler (4.0 PPG on 25% FG in series) and PG Reggie Jackson (5.0 PPG on 16% FG in series) all have the ability of having big scoring nights, but have all shot horribly during this series. Saturday night is going to come down to a basic part of the game for The Thunder, who simply have to hit more shots. Just like the Grizzlies in Game 1 when they shot 36% FG, Oklahoma City was in position to win despite shooting terribly (39% FG). Correct that on the offensive end and the Thunder will be in great shape to tie the series up. If not, Memphis will be one game away from clinching the series.
The inside game of PF Zach Randolph (20.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.7 APG in series) and C Marc Gasol (15.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.3 APG in series) get all of the talk, but PG Mike Conley (18.3 PPG, 8.7 APG, 5.7 RPG in series) has been the star of this team in the playoffs. In Game 3, Conley scored 20 points while dishing out three assists, and his three-pointer in overtime gave the Grizzlies a 90-88 lead, helping them pull away for the victory with another layup. He is not as athletic as Westbrook, but he plays under control and does not force things. Gasol had another solid game on Thursday with 14 points and eight rebounds, but did not touch the ball a lot in the final seven minutes of regulation when the Thunder made their comeback. The Grizzlies are at their best when the offense is running through Gasol, so look for Memphis to get back to that on Saturday.
The bench play of SF Tony Allen (12.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG in series) and PG Beno Udrih (9.7 PG, 3.0 RPG in series) was the key in the Game 3 victory, as the duo combined for 30 points, while Allen also pulled down nine boards. Udrih hit difficult shots the entire game, while Allen was a force on both ends of the court. Getting offense from Allen is a bonus, as he has done a terrific job of guarding Durant through the first three games of this series. If the bench can continue to outplay the Thunder reserves, Memphis will be in great shape to get the victory.
Check out more NBA Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Top-seeded Spurs reeling from a 113-92 thrashing Wednesday at the hands of 8th-seeded Mavericks will be spurred on to regain home court advantage when the two meet in Dallas for Game-3 of this Western Conference Quarter Final. NBA sports bettors doing the research will find some eye-opening numbers in San Antonio's favor. The Spurs have thrived against the number following a 15 or more point shellacking posting a 10-3 ATS mark the past thirteen occurrences. The Spurs are also on an impressive 23-10 ATS stretch following a loss as a favorite including a sparkling 10-1 ATS as a favorite wearing road jersey's. It’s also important to point out San Antonio was 20-11 ATS as a road favorite during the regular season and despite the back-2-back ATS losses Spurs remain a profitable 7-3 against the betting line the past 10 quarter final games. According to the current betting odds at Bovada.lv the Spurs enter this contest as 3.5 point favorite, with a total at 202.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
NBA Playoff Picks – Saturday Afternoon Slate
By: Marcus DiNitto
The Pacers continue down a path of self-destruction, while the Spurs look to shake off what Tony Parker calls "maybe one of our worst games of the year." Both teams are in action Saturday afternoon in the NBA playoffs.
In the evening tips, it’s the Heat at Bobcats and Thunder at Grizzlies.
Indiana Pacers (-2, 186) at Atlanta Hawks
The Pacers’ downward spiral continued Thursday night, with another performance far from befitting a No. 1 seed. The Hawks took a 2-1 series lead with a 98-85 win in Game 3, and have now beaten Indiana in 15 of the last 17 meetings at Philips Arena.
Pacers players are fighting with one another – literally – and Frank Vogel’s job status is tenuous. Center Roy Hibbert has been ineffective (that’s a kind characterization), and Vogel is hearing calls to sit the big man on the bench.
Their body language isn’t that of a team with championship aspirations.
"We have a dream of winning it all," Paul George said. "We've got be much more tougher than that. I don't think it's there. Our toughness is questionable right now."
The Linemakers’ lean: If just looking at a stat sheet and seeing that Atlanta was shooting only 40 percent for the series and getting out-rebounded by an average of 45-35 a game, it wouldn’t be hard to fool anyone not following what is transpiring into believing the Pacers are up 3-0. But down 2-1, it’s apparent the Pacers have packed it in, and they've become a hard team to support. And even though the Hawks have now covered seven of their last eight games, and will be partly responsible for the likely restructuring in Indiana when this debacle is over, it’s hard to take the points with the home dog here.
The best value looks to be UNDER 186 total points. The past two games have gone UNDER, and if thinking Indiana may finally play better with its back against the wall, then it will start with defense. And as the Pacers showed in Game 3, they can play really poorly and still keep a game UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, 202.5) at Dallas Mavericks
A convincing win Wednesday night in Game 2 marked Dallas’ first victory over San Antonio in 12 meetings. The Mavs have won the cash, though, in three of the last four, including both games in this year’s playoffs.
San Antonio is fortunate not to be down 0-2. In Game 1 last Sunday, Dallas had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, even though their two leading scorers – Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis – finished with just 11 points apiece.
Bookmakers adjusted the Game 2 spread to Spurs -7.5 after Game 1 went off at -9.5, but the betting market expects San Antonio to bounce back on Saturday. The Spurs opened at the South Point as 3-point road favorites and were bet to -3.5 later Thursday.
If history is any indication, Game 3 is a big one for the Spurs. Per the Express News, San Antonio has “hit the road 17 times after splitting the opening two games (of a playoff series) at home. The Spurs went on to win the series in all eight instances they took Game 3. Conversely, they were eliminated in the nine series they lost Game 3.”
The Linemakers’ lean: The Spurs were the league’s best team this season, while the Mavs had to sneak into the playoffs. This is a classic spot for the better team to bounce back and regain control of the series. San Antonio turned the ball over 22 times in Game 2, something we don’t see happening again. The price may be a bit inflated here, but we’re willing to lay the points in this spot. The Spurs are one of our better plays of the weekend. Another wagering strategy to consider: buy the line down to Spurs -2 and lay -150 – games rarely land on 1.
Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 26
NBA Playoff Picks – Saturday Evening Games
By: Marcus DiNitto
The Miami Heat have a chance to put their foot on the necks of the Charlotte Bobcats, while the OKC Thunder need a win in Memphis to avoid a 3-1 series deficit. These two games comprise Saturdays evening’s NBA playoff schedule on ESPN.
Miami Heat (-5.5, 188) at Charlotte Bobcats
The Big Three’s record vs. the Bobcats remains unblemished, as the Heat took the first two games of the series in Miami. Charlotte’s been competitive, though, playing the Heat close throughout much of both outings and getting the cash as a 9.5-point dog in Game 2’s 101-97 loss on Wednesday night.
Miami goes from a 10- and 9.5-point home favorite in Games 1 and 2, to laying 5.5 points on the road in this spot. That’s a pretty subtle swing when there’s a change of venue involved and means that if you want to bet Miami, you’ll be paying a premium.
Still, it’s tough to have the confidence to pull the trigger on Charlotte here. Their best player, Al Jefferson, is hobbled with plantar fasciitis, and Miami hasn’t even dialed up its defensive intensity yet. The Heat proved to be among the league’s elite defenses at the end of the season but haven’t found it necessary to expend that type of energy in the first round against these Bobcats.
Miami is 2-0 SU and ATS in Charlotte this season, covering spreads of 8 and 6.5 in November and January, respectively, but needed overtime to get the cash in the more recent meeting.
The Linemakers' lean: If the line remains steady at 5.5, we’re passing on this game. Neither side offers much value at that number, but if it jumps to Heat -7, we’ll take the points with the Bobcats.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-3, 188.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
If you’re surprised that Memphis has the Thunder down 2-1, you probably shouldn’t be. The Grizzlies have been winning series in the postseason since 2011, when, as a No. 8 seed, they knocked off the top-seeded Spurs. Last year, of course, they beat a Russell Westbrook-less OKC team en route to the Western Conference finals.
Many handicappers will give the Thunder a long look in this spot – the ziz-zag theory says OKC should put forth a big effort after Thursday night’s loss to avoid being put on the brink of elimination.
Oddsmakers, though, are acutely aware of these tendencies – both a team’s tendency to bounce back and a bettor’s tendency to wager on them to do so. That means OKC backers will have to lay a price that probably outstrips any value.
The last two games in this series, both Memphis wins and covers, have gone into overtime. When games are this tightly-contested, the bigger a spread gets, the more appeal the underdog has.
On the other hand, it’s fair to expect a revival from Kevin Durant, whose Game 3 performance was remarkably inefficient.
The Linemakers' lean: Even though the Grizzlies are up 2-1, Oklahoma City is still the -150 favorite to win the series. The Grizzlies have won the past two games in overtime as underdogs, but now OKC has to have a good game or their season is just about done.
Is the threat of the season being close to over enough to get them to play at their absolute best? That's the question you have to keep asking yourself before betting, and the answer keeps coming back that perhaps the Thunder aren't as good as we thought they were. They've lost four of their last six, including what is now a bad loss to the Pacers.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have now won seven of their last eight. Face it, one team is hot and the other isn't. It's a lot easier to take +3 than lay it, but we're not too excited about either side. We'll make a small play on Memphis, but would really prefer to get +3.5 if possible.
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