Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Brad Wilton

It's not like the Pistons are setting the world on fire, but after tangling with the Miami Heat at Auburn Hills last night, Detroit should welcome a trip to the City of Brotherly Love where the 76ers have been showing the opposition "love" pretty much all season long!

Philly's losing streak is at an epic 26 games in row now, and their last pair of losses have come by 22 points a piece. The Sixers are 8-29 straight up at home this year, and they are just 11-26 against the spread in those 37 home games.

Detroit has won and covered each of the last 4 series meetings, and they are on a 6-1 straight up and against the spread roll the last 7 series meetings with Philadelphia.

Hate to be Captain Obvious y'all, but until further notice you have to keep going against the 76ers.

4♦ DETROIT

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Brandon Shively

Wisconsin vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -160

I like Arizona in this game as this is a top-notch defense vs. an average defense of Wisconsin. The Wildcats have Nick Johnson who is the best on ball defender in this tournament in my opinion. They also have the athletic freshman of Josh Gordon who will alter shots in the paint. Arizona is holding opponents to 58 ppg on the season. They are holding opponents to 38% shooting from the floor including 32% from the 3 point line. Arizona fought through adversity on Thursday night for a well-deserved win vs. San Diego State. Nick Johnson was held scoreless until the last few minutes of the game when he reeled off 15 straight points. I like the momentum that Arizona will be playing with as Johnson will be confident going into this game. I also like the big offensive rebounding advantage that Arizona has in this game. For Wisconsin, they will live and die by the three pointer. It should be noted that Wisconsin got beaten this year by Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Indiana. These are all questionable losses and should be noted. Wisconsin is not a physical team nor are they a scrappy team. Arizona is a scrappy club that creates offense off of steals and blocked shots. I really feel like after that tough game they won on Thursday night, the Wildcats are destined to make it to the Final Four. I also feel they will do it with ease. I honestly see Arizona win this game by 11-13 points but this is March Madness and I feel much more comfortable playing Arizona -160 on the money line as I am confident they will win this game. Wisconsin is a popular pick by sharps and the public today but I strongly disagree. Wisconsin was never tested in their last game vs. Baylor while Arizona was tested to the 'max' against San Diego State. I feel like Wisconsin will come into this game with a 'big ego' while Arizona will be fully focused and determined. I look for Nick Johnson to continue playing with confidence and to get Arizona out to an early lead and for the defense of the Wildcats to keep the Badgers tamed. In closing, this will be a crowd that favors Arizona as this game is being played in Anaheim California. I look for Gordon and Johnson to ignite the crowd and for the momentum to keep Arizona rolling as well.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Jimmy Boyd

Milwaukee Bucks +9½

The Miami Heat are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks in the second half of a back-to-back situation. This will be Miami's third consecutive road game. Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing with a day of rest, and they are coming off a confidence boosting home win on Thursday night.

Miami has lost two of its last four games both straight up and against the spread. Taking a look back even further you can see the Heat have lost nine of their last 14 games against the spread. With the playoffs approaching the oddsmakers are obviously overvaluing the Heat. Playing in a back-to-back situation is draining, and I don't think Miami will be coming into this matchup with the mentality it takes to win on the road by a double-digit margin.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Jack Jones

Wisconsin +3

The Wisconsin Badgers get the nod as a 3-point underdog to the Arizona Wildcats in the Elite Eight. Admittedly, I wasn't as high on Wisconsin as I should have been coming into the tournament, but I am sold after watching them play mostly flawless basketball to get here.

The Badgers shot 50% in their 75-35 win over American, 48.3% in their 85-77 victory over Oregon, and 52% in their 69-52 triumph against Baylor. This team is not showing any nerves at all with the way they have just been letting it fly while connecting from the field at an alarming rate.

I believe the wrong team is favored here as Arizona comes in overrated due to playing the softest schedule of anyone to get to this point. It has beaten Weber State, Gonzaga and San Diego State to get here. Both the WCC and Mountain West Conferences aren't very good, so this will really be its first true test.

Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS off a game where it had two or fewer steals over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

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Wisconsin vs ArizonaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 131FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This play on the total features the 29-7 Wisconsin at the 33-4 Arizona. Both teams on the surface look like a easy over for clients dig deeper and you will see the Under will be the play here tonight. The public is very very heavy on the over here at a rate of 61% yet this line has really held fast at 130.5.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Tony Karpinski

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks    
Play: Dallas Mavericks -10

Sacramento has been awesome on the offensive side of the glass. And with DeMarcus Cousins and Jason Thompson as an effective cleanup crew this season, this could get interesting. Dallas, on the other hand has been terrible overall on the season rebounding the ball. With 3 guys getting 6+ boards each, which sounds nice, but none of them are a clean house 10+ rebound guy to depend on night in and night out. This could be a slight issue. They lack youth and mobilty in the middle to get to the rim, and get second chances. Making up for it with veteran leadership. Dallas will make adjustments in this game to take Sacramento out of what they want to do, which is get to the paint, so they won't. Dallas is fighting for the playoffs and I like them at home to get a big win here!

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Steve Janus

Pelicans / Spurs Under 202½

The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries. New Orleans had already lost Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith for the season and now they are expected to be without Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon and Brian Roberts tonight against the Spurs. I have a hard time believing the offense will be able to do much of anything. I also believe there's a good chance San Antonio will rest some of their key players, playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their 3rd in 4 days overall. Key here is that the Spurs' reserves will stick to the system and play hard. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to get to 100 points. Even if the Spurs turn this into a blowout and eclipse the century mark, I still like this to stay below the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Harry BondiFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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DALLAS (-10) over SacramentoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Whenever the Mavs are coming off a SU loss they grab our attention in the next game since they are a profitable 39-13 ATS when in that situation and 45-16 when off an ATS loss. We like the spot even more tonight since Dallas has owned the series with Sacramento, going 7-2 ATS in the last nine and 29-13 SU at home. Dallas has also beat up on inferior opponents, going 35-17 ATS against losing teams. It all adds up to a blowout win for the Mavs tonight. Lay it!

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Joe Gavazzi

Washington Wizards -5

Not easy to back the Wizards at home where despite last night's victory against Indiana (91-78), the Wiz are 11-17 SU, 9-17 ATS including 3-12 as a favorite of 4 or more points. Overall, Washington is 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS of late as they are locked into the 5-7 spot of the upcoming Playoffs. But those Washington issues pale in comparison to the problems of Atlanta. Having lost 5 straight games in which they have averaged just 87 PPG, Atlanta is on a downward spiral of 6-19 SU, 5-19 ATS. Since the ASB, Atlanta has allowed 107 PPG. Their poor road record of 7-16 ATS as road dog to +9 offsets the play of Washington at home. Washington has a strong history in this matchup covering the pointspread the last 7 times these teams have met. On Sunday, the Hawks problems will be further complicated by the fact that two of their key contributors Korver (back) and Antic (ankle) are questionable for this contest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

LT Profits

Dayton vs Florida
Pick: Florida -10

The Dayton Flyers have been the best Cinderella story of this NCAA Tournament as after finishing sixth in the Atlantic 10, the Flyers were the only other team among the six A-10 teams in the Big Dance besides Saint Louis to win at least one game in this tournament, as they have knocked off three major-conference schools in Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford to get into this Elite Eight! However, they are making a huge jump in class vs. the Florida Gators, the top ranked team in the country both in the polls and on the Pomeroy Ratings. Florida is second nationally in defensive efficiency and Dayton should seem like a class drop after the Gators held one of the nation’s best offenses UCLA to 13 points in the last 10 minutes of a 79-68 win on Thursday. Florida is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 NCAA Tournament games.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona -3 over WisconsinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It would be easy to make a case for the Badgers getting points here, as they rolled to a 40-point win over American in the opening round, an 8-point win over Oregon in the subsequent round and finally a 17-point whitewash over Baylor on Thursday. That blowout over Baylor is very fresh in the minds of bettors. In fact, the Badgers are 3-0 against the spread in this event so anyone that bet against Wisconsin once, twice or three times, isn’t exactly rushing to the betting window, Meanwhile, Arizona has not looked as sharp as Wisky with its win but non-cover against San Diego State and its non-cover in the opening round against Weber State. Wisconsin’s easy win on Thursday combined with Arizona’s scare on Thursday and has created an overreaction on the Badgers and an under-reaction on the Wildcats. That prompts us to step in.
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Wisconsin trailed American in the opening round 17-10 and we’re spotting 11 points in that game. Yeah, they covered and won by 40 but if you missed that game, it was shocking to see a team go THAT cold the rest of the game. Open shots were missed by American the entire game and the entire second half. Against Oregon in round two that cover by Wisconsin was perhaps the luckiest cover in 20 years. Spotting 6½ points to the Ducks, Oregon was down four and had the ball with 7 seconds remaining, not to mention they led practically the entire way. Oregon inbounds, drives down the floor and hoists a three-pointer that misses with 0.4 seconds left. No big deal, right? What happens is that dude on the Ducks commits not only a foul but a technical foul as well and Wisconsin goes to the line for four shots and hits them all with virtually no time left. Game, set, match, cover, thanks for coming out. The Badgers then got a favorable matchup against Baylor, a team that knows very little about protecting their rim. Not to take anything away from the Badgers, but they take a HUGE step up in class today against a team that hasn’t come close to playing their best basketball yet.
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Arizona struggled against Weber State and they struggled against San Diego State. What we want to point out is that the Wildcats had several days off prior to both those games and they were not as sharp as we’ve seen them. What’s so interesting is that on a normal one days rest, the Wildcats destroyed a very good Gonzaga team by 23 points. They are on one day’s rest again here. Arizona's defense is truly elite, arguably the best in the country right now. The Wildcats' defense feeds their offensive-efficiency numbers thanks to a relatively high proportion of easy transition baskets off turnovers and defensive rebounds. Furthermore, leading scorer Nick Johnson went just 2-12 against SDSU yet the Wildcats were still able to win because the rest of the team combined to hit 21-of-36. Johnson has not warmed up yet but lookout off he goes off today. In the end, the Badgers may have more appeal to those that have followed and wagered on this tournament but the value here lies in the favorite because Arizona is not getting the credit it deserves while the Badgers are suddenly being billed as a very dangerous team. We’re not so sure about that.   
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Detroit +101 over TORONTOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Leafs actually played one of their best games of the season last night in Philadelphia but it’s the same result as the game in which they were manhandled by the Blues on Tuesday and the same result they’ve been getting for seven straight games now. The Leafs were getting the puck out quickly and efficiently most of last night and they sustained some offensive pressure for stretches at a time. The problem is that because they lost, they’ll likely go back to being the sloppy team that they are and play most of this game in their own end. Aside from that, Toronto is still a mentally fragile team. They have allowed three goals or more in all seven losses. Dion Phaneuf’s +/- rating over the past two games is -5. In the second game of back-to-backs after losing the front end, the Leafs have two wins in eight tries this season. Feeling a ton of pressure to snap this losing streak and being a dejected club, the Leafs remain fade material until they show us something different.
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The Red Wings have been high on our radar for weeks and that hasn’t changed. It would be a little more comforting if Jimmy Howard was more consistent but it is what it is. Recently, Howard has been very good one game and dreadful the next but Mike Babcock is sticking with him. What we know for sure is that the Wings have some healthy bodies back and they’re dangerous as hell. They’ve dropped three in a row to Minnesota, Columbus and Montreal but all three losses were because of unsteady goaltending. Detroit allowed just 29 shots on net or fewer in all three games but Howard was tagged for 13 goals against on just 82 total shots. Detroit, Toronto, Columbus and Washington all have 80 points and will fight for the final two playoff spots. All three teams have two games in hand on the Maple Leafs and Washington plays in Boston this afternoon. We all know how crucial this game is for both clubs and in that regard we much prefer to have the superior team at a price. Indeed, it’s a roll of the dice concerning Howard’s play but in three games this season, Detroit has outshot Toronto by a combined 30 shots and Howard only has to be adequate here to add to the Leafs miseries.
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Montreal -½ +105 over FLORIDAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. We’re not quite sold on the Canadiens as a threat of any kind in the playoffs but one thing that remains constant is that Carey Price is as good as any goaltender in the game. We’ve seen goalies steal series in the past and with so much shaky goaltending throughout the NHL, especially the East, that key element gives Montreal a big edge in net against anyone not named Boston. Now Montreal comes into this game winners of four in a row and seven of its past eight games. The Habs have scored 28 times over that span while surrendering just 18 goals. Montreal’s penalty killing has been brilliant lately so to beat them, the Panthers are going to have to score in regulation and they’re probably going to have to score four times or more because the Canadiens figure to get at last three here on Dan Ellis.
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Ellis is the Panthers netminder tonight because Roberto Luongo is out with an injury. Right away the Panthers come in with a different mindset, knowing their in big trouble with Ellis between the pipes. Dan Ellis as appeared in 17 games this season but he should be a bench player in the minors. He has posted save percentages of .861, .885, .879, .857, .857, .769, .800, .821 and .850 in nine of his 15 starts. Florida has one win over its last five games and just five wins over their past 18 games. Carey Price against Dan Ellis is equivalent to Clayton Kershaw against Joe Blanton but the difference is in the latter matchup, where Kershaw would be a -230 favorite. Here, Price and the Habs are a small favorite but we’ll gladly spot the half puck and take back some juice because the value says to. 
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CAROLINA -½ +128 over ColumbusFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jackets are doing everything they can to miss the playoffs. In a strong position to get there less than two weeks ago, Columbus has dropped four of six games including a 2-0 setback against the Islanders and a 3-1 loss to these same Hurricanes on March 18 at Nationwide Arena. The Jackets scored one goal or less in all four losses. Last night, with another chance to solidify its chances, Columbus lost at home to Pittsburgh, 2-1. On January 27th, the Jackets played in Carolina and were outshot 35-24 in a 3-2 loss. The Jackets are not responding well under the pressure of a playoff drive and it’s also worth noting that they’re 0-5 against the Metropolitan Division over their last five games. Curtis McElhinney was in net against Pittsburgh last night while Sergei Bobrovsky was recovering from the flu. Chances are Bobrovsky will get the call here and he’s been nothing but ordinary the entire season.
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Let it be known that if Cam Ward is in net for Carolina we are going to pass on this one and WILL NOT make our wager until the ‘Canes confirm. We’ll update as soon as we get confirmation. This line came out late this morning due to the Jackets unknown goaltending status. We figured that Columbus would be a small favorite in this game but the line came out as Carolina -126. That was a telling sign to us that the oddsmakers see Carolina as probably the best team that is not going to the playoffs. They are healthy and they are as good as several other teams that will be making the playoffs. The ‘Canes have won three of their past five games. One of their losses occurred against the Islanders when Cam Ward allowed three goals on the first nine shots and Carolina fell behind 4-0 in the first 10 minutes of that game. They switched goaltenders and ended up losing 5-4 but that’s an example of how this team will not quit. They went out and won in Florida, 3-0 in their next game with Anton Khodubin starting in net and Khodubin has now surrendered just one goal over his last 110 minutes of action. The ‘Canes are at their best playing on one day’s rest with a 19-12 record and that applies here. Lastly, Carolina is fully aware of the Jackets quest to make the playoffs and playing the role of the spoiler is a one that every team enjoys and gets up for. A dangerous Carolina team with nothing to lose has far more value than a struggling Jackets team. Again, the fact that Carolina, a team not going to the playoffs and that gets very little press, opened at -126 is a very telling sign that the oddsmakers really like them today. We’re on board with that.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 29

Insider's ClubFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington WizardsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington Wizards -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawks have woefully lost their last five and a sixth loss could even be more costly. Washington has not been prolific in recent performances but they have managed to do a decent job defending home court. Atlanta has yielded poor results in road performances. On the year, the Wizards have won two of three only dropping one in overtime to the Hawks in Atlanta. As five point favorites, the Wizards should continue on and win this game by the margin offered.

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TJ PembertonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas MavericksREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Sacramento Kings +10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Although many spreads have been fairly accurate as of late, this one is deceptive to the eye nonetheless. Given the past two results and Dallas’ failure to defend home court thoroughly, the Kings may be in line for their twenty-sixth victory of the year. A triumph is far more imperative for the Mavericks who are in constant battle with Phoenix, who romped the Knicks last night and red-hot Memphis for the final two playoff spots. Look for Dallas to win, but win close. Be sure to check out my 10* Max Release for Saturday. Currently on a Big Run cashing 8 of the last 9 Premium Plays. Its Discounted & Guaranteed!

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Jeff Alexander

Heat/Bucks Under 198½

Recent events have set up a solid UNDERS opportunity in tonight's Heat/Bucks game. Playing the UNDER on teams like Miami that allowed 80 points or less last game has resulted in a 53-22 (70.7%) record the last 5 seasons when they are matched up against a team that has allowed 105 points or more in 2 straight games. We've seen an average posted total of 197.6 in this situation, but only 193.5 points have been scored on average in this situation. The UNDER is on a 5-1-2 run in the series, including a 3-0-1 run in the games played played in Milwaukee.

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Dave Price

Milwaukee Bucks +9½

The value lies with Milwaukee here. Miami won big in Detroit last night, but it has been a dead fade following a cover. In fact, the Heat are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS victory. This is also a difficult scheduling spot for the Heat, who are playing their second road game in as many nights and third in four days. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 5-13 ATS this season when playing a third game in four days. Milwaukee has been undervalued because of its poor record and has covered the spread in four of its last five games as a result. Going back further, it's on an 18-7-1 ATS run. The Heat are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, and the Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

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Tom Grassi

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards    
Play: Atlanta Hawks +5

Two teams that had opposite results in their previous game meet tonight in the Nation’s capital: Atlanta lost by double digits at home versus Portland, while the Wizards won by double digits at home versus Indiana just last night.

That win by Washington has been something of a rarity for the past few months when they’ve come at home, with the Wizards managing a weak 6-15-1 ATS mark during that time frame. They also have shown a knack for playing down to their competition, managing to beat the pointspread just three of the last 13 times when facing a poor road team like the Hawks.

In their three previous meetings this, Washington has covered all three times, though Atlanta did win in their December 13th meeting. The Hawks may be looking for some revenge after getting embarrassed on their home court five weeks ago, and it’s the underdog that’s held the edge lately in this series, covering five of six games, along with two pushes.

Early money has seen Washington get two-thirds of the wagers, but the line has yet to move. That may indicate some backing of Atlanta by the Sharps, and given the Wizards’ inconsistency at home, they may suffer a letdown in this, so we’ll take the points.

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John Ryan

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks    
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +9½

The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucks will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Miami had a very strong game last night in Detroit, but now have to play again tonight on back-to-back nights. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark for 74% winners since 1996. Play on underdogs of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is now facing an opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games. The following SIM projections for this game are reflected in the following game situations. Miami is a money burning 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game this season; 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Bucks may have the worst record in the NBA, but as has been the case in every NBA season, these beaten up teams tend to get the benefit of inflated lines when playing in the second half of the season. Milwaukee is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in the second half of this season. Take the Bucks.


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Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Clippers at Houston RocketsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Houston RocketsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Clippers have the better overall record in this matchup against Houston, however the vast majority of LA's victories have come on their home court. Clippers are a dominant 31-5 on their home court but are just 20-17 away from home. That's a big difference, especially against another very good home team like Houston that is 29-7 here at home and more than capable of keeping up offensively with the Clippers.
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Houston is scoring 109 ppg here at home (LA averaging 104 ppg on the road) and are heating up with five straight wins (scored 118+ points in four of those five victories). They'll hold serve on their home court tonight and move to 19-8 ATS at home after a home win!

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Ian CameronFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit -105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Toronto Maple Leafs appeared to be a lock to make the playoffs but they have unraveled over the past two weeks and now find themselves in trouble. The enter tonight’s critical showdown vs. Detroit riding a 7-game losing streak; both teams are tied for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Mistakes and slow starts have plagued Toronto during their skid. They’ve taken bad penalties which they have been unable to kill. They’ve coughed up the puck in bad areas of the ice resulting in quality scoring chances and sometimes goals for the other team. And they have routinely been outplayed and outshot especially at the start of games. Even though they had a better effort last night against the Flyers, it was those same mental errors that cost them in a 4-2 loss. They are at a situational disadvantage here as the Red Wings have been waiting in Toronto since playing on Thursday night while the Leafs are playing the second of back-to-back games. The Red Wings have gone 0-2-1 in their last three games but they lost all three games by a combined 4 goals and have been competitive throughout despite a slew of key injuries. Detroit is still a dangerous offensive team even with the injuries and that is bad news for Toronto who has been struggling to keep the puck out of their net during their skid. Both teams are desperate for the victory and need to win but I’ve seen a lot more evidence of solid play from Detroit making them worthy of support at a very short price.

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