College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

College Basketball Information

Florida is in fourth straight Elite 8 but lost in this spot three years in a row, by 3-4-20 points. Donovan's last Final Four was '07. Since '09, #1 seeds are 5-7 SU in this round. Double digit favorites are 5-4 in regional finals, but in this century they're 0-3, with '99 UNC last double digit favorite to cover. Dayton won 13 of its last 15 games overall; they won in OT at Ole Miss, their only SEC game. Gators are 24-4 in last 28 NCAA tournament games- they've won 29 games in row, with last loss Dec 2 at UConn- they beat Richmond by 9, their only A-13 opponent. .

While Ryan/Miller have never coached in Final Four, Ryan has won four national titles in D-III. Ryan's only D-I regional final was 88-82 loss to UNC in '05. Wisconsin is 16-0 out of conference this season; Badgers are 12-2 in last 14 games overall. Arizona is 10-2 in last 12 games; they lost last three regional finals, with last win in '01. Wildcats allowed average of 61.3 ppg in first three NCAA games; they won by hoop at Michigan in December, its only Big Dozen opponent. In regional finals involving 1-2 seeds, #2 seeds are 6-4 SU since '06, 4-4 when an underdog.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

NCAA South Regional Final Betting Preview: Dayton vs. Florida
By Covers.com

Dayton Flyers vs. Florida Gators (-10,5 132.5)

Florida is part of the Elite Eight for the fourth straight season and looks for its 30th consecutive victory when it clashes with upstart Dayton in Saturday’s South regional title game at Memphis, Tenn. The top-seeded Gators haven’t advanced to the Final Four since winning their second consecutive national crown in 2007 and the senior-laden club is aware that another Elite Eight loss would be deflating. The 11th-seeded Flyers are in the Elite Eight for just the third time in school history.

Dayton continued its surprising run through the tournament with a Sweet 16 victory over Stanford and it would rank as a huge upset if the Flyers prevail against the Gators. Of course, all the pressure is on a Florida team that hasn’t lost since Dec. 2 and is forecasted to win the national title by numerous prognosticators. “Personally, I don’t feel like there’s anything to enjoy right now,” sophomore guard Michael Frazier II said after Thursday’s victory over UCLA. “We’re trying to keep advancing and you can’t take a breath because every team now is a good team.”

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Gators as 10-point faves, but that has since been bet up to -10.5. The total opened 133.5 and has come down to 132.5.

INJURY REPORT: Florida - Dillon Graham, G (out for season)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Florida has a big defensive edge and the better offense, but of course this is why they are a double-digit favorite. I can not see them losing straight-up, however covering the large pointspread is a different story because the Gators do not often win by a large margin since they play a slow, half-court style." Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "True David vs Goliath matchup for Dayton vs Florida. No wiseguy action on this game so far, but 63% of cash & 65% of bets are taking the double digit dog. Sharp action came on Wisconsin +3 on Friday morning, so moved Arizona to -2.5; I think a lot more people were impressed with what they saw from the Badgers than Wildcats on Thursday." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET DAYTON (26-10 SU, 20-12 ATS, 17-14 O/U): The Flyers don’t have the major pedigree or any big names – guard Jordan Sibert averages a modest 12.5 points to lead the team – but knocked out Ohio State and Syracuse prior to eliminating Stanford. The players have thrived on the lack of respect they feel from outsiders and have used it as fuel during the impressive tournament run. “Absolutely, that’s definitely something that we’ve been talking about all year,” Sibert said after Thursday’s win. “People have been doubting us and not giving us a lot of credit.”

WHY BET FLORIDA (35-2 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 11-21-1 O/U): Frazier scored 19 points and made five 3-pointers in the victory over UCLA after struggling in the Gators’ first two NCAA tournament games. When Frazier (12.7 points, 111 3-pointers) is on his game, the inside opens up for forward Casey Prather (team-best 14 per game) and center Patric Young (10.8) as well as providing point guard Scottie Wilbekin (13.1) with increased room to operate and drive to the hoop. Frazier has made five or more 3-pointers nine times this season, topped by a school-record 11 against South Carolina on March 4.

TRENDS:

* Flyers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. Southeastern.
* Under is 31-14-1 in Gators last 46 overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Flyers last five Saturday games.

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers are on Dayton.

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NCAA South Regional Betting News and Notes
By Covers.com

Just two teams remain in the South Region, and only one will advance to the Final Four. Here's a quick look at Saturday's matchup between the Florida Gators and the Dayton Flyers:

No. 11 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 1 Florida Gators (-10.5, 132.5)

Much has been made about the Gators' stifling defense, but the Flyers have been solid in their own right, particularly when defending the 3-point line. Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford combined to shoot just 8 for 43 from beyond the arc versus Dayton, which makes a point to close out quickly on opposing long-range shooters. That commitment to perimeter defense should concern Florida, which has shot just 16 for 53 from outside so far in the tournament.

The key to victory for the Gators, besides remaining diligent on defense, could be how they deal with Dayton's depth. The reserves for Albany, Pittsburgh and UCLA combined to shoot just 12 for 33 against Florida, but those three opponents didn't rely on their bench nearly as much as the Flyers do. Dayton's reserves are averaging 21.7 points per game and have been responsible for 33 percent of the Flyers' total points scored in the tournament.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

NCAA West Regional Final Betting Preview: Wisconsin vs. Arizona
By Covers.com

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

Either Arizona or Wisconsin is going to end a lengthy Final Four drought when the two programs square off in Saturday’s West regional final at Anaheim, Calif. The top-seeded Wildcats haven’t reached the national semifinals since 2001 when famed coach Lute Olson was still at the top of the profession. Second-seeded Wisconsin’s last appearance was one year earlier when Dick Bennett surprisingly guided the eighth-seeded Badgers into the Final Four.

Wildcats coach Sean Miller has received attention this month as perhaps the best active coach to not reach the Final Four but Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan also should be part of that discussion. The Badgers have only reached this stage once previously in his 13-season tenure – 2005 before losing to North Carolina – and his players have become well aware he hasn’t reached the Final Four. “Yeah, that would be a very special thing to do,” said guard Ben Brust after Thursday’s convincing victory over Baylor, “but we also know that he’s not going to let us look too far ahead.”

LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats opened as 3-point favorites and the total opened 130.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona, F Brandon Ashley (out for season)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Wisconsin has the better offense, while Arizona has the better defense. Arizona is a bit more battle tested after a tough game against San Diego State, while Wisconsin was never tested by Baylor. These are two excellent teams and the winner of this game might end up being the national champion." Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "We opened Arizona -3 and we’ve seen mostly Wisconsin money at that number. After seeing what Wisconsin did to Baylor, we figured the public was going to back the Badgers in this game. So with the early action immediately backing Wisconsin, we went to +3 -115 on them late last night. Early this morning with more money backing Wisconsin, we moved off 3 and went to Arizona -2.5 flat, and that’s the line we’re currently dealing. Bottom line, this Wisconsin team by virtue of last night's dominating performance, is the hot, public team." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET WISCONSIN (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS, 19-16 O/U): The Badgers are much prolific offensively than they typically are and have good balance, led by center Frank Kaminsky (13.7 average), guard Ben Brust (13 per game) and forward Sam Dekker (12.5). But the trademark defensive tenacity Ryan preaches has certainly been on display in the tournament as the Badgers are allowing just 54.7 points per game and totally shut down a red-hot Baylor squad (31.6 percent from the field) in Thursday’s 69-52 victory. Wisconsin’s win total is third-best in school history – two shy of the school mark set by the 2007-08 squad.

WHY BET ARIZONA (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-20 O/U): Pac-12 Player of the Year Nick Johnson was scoreless on 0-of-10 shooting over the first 37 minutes of Thursday’s victory against San Diego State before scoring 15 points in the final 2:46 to help the Wildcats secure a 70-64 victory. “I’ve had a few games like this this year,” a relieved Johnson said afterward. “It’s unfortunately been our losses, so I just try to stay with it.” The Wildcats will need a more consistent effort from Johnson (16.3) against the Badgers and will also continue to rely on the inside duo of Aaron Gordon (12.5 points) and rising Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.1).

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

NCAA West Regional Betting News and Notes
By Covers.com

The West Regional presented few surprises as the two top teams from that side of the bracket battle for a ticket to Texas Saturday. Check out our betting news and notes for the West Regional final.

No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

If Arizona hopes to live up to its seed and advance out of Anaheim, Calif., to the Final Four, it had better hope its half-court game is in good order. Wisconsin (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) didn’t allow a single fastbreak point in its 69-52 rout Baylor. In fact, Wisconsin has gone a game-and-a-half without giving up a fastbreak point, shutting down Oregon in the final 20 minutes of a Round of 32 victory.

Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that Wisconsin has been a dominating force in the paint during the NCAA tournament, with much of the credit going to gangly 7-foot-center Frank Kaminsky. The Badgers have outscored their three NCAA foes in the lane by a combined 92-54, helping them win and cover in all three games. In Thursday’s bouncing of Baylor, Kaminsky had 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting and was key in hassling the Bears near the basket, with six blocked shots.

Arizona coach Sean Miller continues to prove he’s worth backing anytime he’s leading the better-seeded team – at least straight up, if not against the spread. In 10 years as a head coach (Xavier, Arizona), Miller has never lost SU to a worse-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. He’s 3-0 this year (1-2 ATS), his seventh trip to the Big Dance, after Thursday’s 70-64 victory over No. 4 seed San Diego State as a 7.5-point favorite.

Arizona (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS) has made a living off stingy defense all season and did likewise in rallying for the win over San Diego State. The Wildcats held the Aztecs to just 38.9 percent shooting – right around Arizona’s season average of 38.0 percent, fourth-best in the nation. The Wildcats, meanwhile, shot 47.9 percent, bolstered by a torrid 61.9-percent effort in the second half.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

Dayton looks to upset Florida
By Sportsbook.ag

Dayton (26-10) vs. Florida (35-2)

NCAA Tournament: South Regional Final - Elite Eight
Venue: FedEx Forum
Location: Memphis, TN
Tip-off:Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida -10.5, Total 132

No. 11 seed Dayton will look to continue its Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament with its toughest test yet on Saturday when it faces No. 1 overall seed Florida for a chance to reach the Final Four.

Dayton reached the Elite Eight with wins against No. 6 seed Ohio State, third-seeded Syracuse and No. 10 seed Stanford, making the team 7-1 ATS in its past eight games. The Flyers are 20-12 ATS overall this season, including 7-2 (SU and ATS) on neutral courts.

They are also an impressive 11-3 ATS against non-conference foes and 8-3 (SU and ATS) as underdogs this season. The Flyers are 8-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of more than 80% this season. Dayton has played ultra stingy defense so far this tournament, giving up 61.3 PPG, but faces one of the nation’s best defensive teams in Florida.

The Gators give up only 57.8 PPG (3rd in Div. I) and are allowing only 56.0 PPG so far in the tournament. Florida has now covered in two straight and seven of its past nine contests to improve to 17-14-2 ATS overall on the season. The Gators are 8-0 SU (4-3-1 ATS) at neutral sites, and 6-4-2 ATS against non-conference opponents.

Their road to the Elite Eight began with an ATS loss against Albany, but they have followed that up with double-digit win-and-covers against Pittsburgh and UCLA. Since 1997, the Gators are 155-113 ATS (58%) against teams that shoot more than 45% from the field.

Dayton’s defensive performance thus far contrasts its inconsistent play during the season, giving up 67.1 PPG on 43.7% FG. However, the Flyers do have potential on the offensive end with 73.4 PPG (98th in Div. I) on 46.6% shooting (60th in Div. I).

No Flyers player averages more than 13 PPG, led by junior SG Jordan Sibert (12.5 PPG), who is knocking down an impressive 43% of his threes this season. After going 4-of-13 from deep in the first two contests, he found his stroke against Stanford, hitting 7-of-12 FG and 4-of-9 threes for 18 points.

Six-foot-seven senior SF Devin Oliver (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.4 APG) is the team’s top rebounder and passer, helping Sibert threaten from the perimeter with 1.1 threes per game.

Sophomore PF Dyshawn Pierre (11.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is also a solid shooter (40% threes) and rounds out the team’s double-digit scorers. He struggled against Stanford with only six points and three turnovers.

SG Vee Sanford (9.7 PPG) and SG Khari Price (6.4 PPG) join Sibert in the backcourt for this team that regularly plays 11 men.

The Gators are arguably the best defensive team in the nation, holding opponents to 39.9% shooting while outrebounding them by +4.9 RPG. Offensively, they tally 71.0 PPG (181st in Div. I) on 46.3% shooting (74th in Div. I).

Their star is SEC Player of the Year PG Scottie Wilbekin (13.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.6 SPG), who wasn’t on the court during Florida’s only two losses: He was suspended for the defeat against Wisconsin and missed the final three minutes of a one-point loss to Wisconsin.

He is one of many tenacious defenders on Billy Donovan’s team, joined by C Patric Young (10.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG), PF Dorian Finney-Smith (9.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and SF Will Yeguete (5.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG), who all have shut-down defensive capabilities.

SF Casey Prather (14.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is the team’s top scorer while SG Michael Frazier II (12.7 PPG) is an incredible shooter, making 45% of his threes this season and 3.1 threes per game. Frazier led Florida past UCLA with 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting, including 5-of-8 from deep.

PG Kasey Hill (5.6 PPG, 3.2 APG) also plays important minutes in the backcourt, helping to occasionally spell Wilbekin from ball-handling duties. He showed his value against the Bruins, chipping in a career-high 10 assists and six rebounds.


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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

Badgers, Wildcats collide
By Sportsbook.ag

Wisconsin (29-7) vs. Arizona (33-4)

NCAA Tournament: West Regional Final - Elite Eight
Venue: Honda Center
Location: Anaheim, CA
Tip-off:Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -3.5, Total: 130

A Final Four berth is on the line Saturday night, as No. 2 seed Wisconsin takes on top-seeded Arizona in the NCAA Tournament Regional Final in Anaheim.

The Badgers have been clicking as of late, winning 12 of their past 14 games (8-6 ATS), They had to rally against Oregon in the third-round game last weekend, but were in complete control from the very beginning of the Sweet 16 matchup against Baylor. Wisconsin (18-16-2 ATS overall, 6-1-1 ATS on neutral courts) was able to overcome the tremendous length of the Bears, and built an early lead that was never in doubt.

The Wildcats are also hot, going 10-2 SU (7-5 ATS) in their past 12 contests. While Arizona (21-15 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS on neutral courts) will not have the same height as Baylor, the club's defense is as good as there is in the country. The Wildcats were in trouble on Thursday night against San Diego State, trailing most of the game before rallying for the victory. SG Nick Johnson missed his first 10 FG attempts of the game, but made some big hoops late to finish with 15 points (10-of-10 FT).

Both clubs have favorable betting trends in this matchup, as Arizona is 20-8 ATS (71%) in non-conference games in the past two seasons, while Wisconsin is 99-64 ATS (61%) after a non-conference game under Bo Ryan. These teams have met three times since 2000, all on a neutral court with Wisconsin going 2-1 SU and Arizona going 2-1 ATS. In the last meeting on Nov. 23, 2009, both teams shot 36% FG in a 65-61 Badgers win.

Wisconsin has a stronger offense than in seasons' past, pouring in 73.8 PPG (88th in nation) on 46.1% FG (78th in Div. I) and 37.6% threes (53rd in nation). Despite these solid numbers, the Badgers still have the fewest turnovers among all Division I teams with 8.1 TOPG, and commit the second-fewest personal fouls (15.0 per game). Defensively, they hold teams to 63.8 PPG (39th in nation) on 42.8% FG and 33.8% threes. The biggest weakness for Wisconsin is its ability to rebound the ball, holding a slim +1.7 RPG advantage this season (131st in Div. I).

In the game against Baylor, the Badgers got a huge performance from C Frank Kaminsky (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG). The 7-footer finished the game with 19 points while shooting 8-of-11 from the field. The Bears were a tough matchup for Kaminsky because they had the size and athleticism to match up with Kaminsky, but he still did a great job of attacking the rim and finishing. While Arizona is a terrific defensive team, Kaminsky will be the biggest player on the court.

SG Ben Brust (13.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG) was the other starter to reach double-figures in the Sweet 16 win against Baylor, finishing with 14 points and six rebounds. Brust is a great three-point shooter (39.3%), but will have to do it against elite defensive pressure. SG Josh Gasser (9.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG) was unable to score against Baylor, but he still had a solid game finishing with eight rebounds.

Forward Sam Dekker (12.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is the guy that must have a big game for the Badgers. At 6-foot-8, he has the size to create serious mismatches against the Wildcats defenders. If he is able to attack the basket, he will draw in the defenders, which will open up some great shooting opportunities for his teammates. PG Traevon Jackson (10.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.8 RPG) has been solid all season for the Badgers, and can get things rolling on the offensive end.

The Wildcats come into this game ranked fifth in the country in defense (58.3 PPG), holding opponents to a mere 38.0% FG (4th in Div. I) and 31.9% threes. They do not have a ton of terrific offensive players, so a lot of their points come because of their defense. The club averages only 73.1 PPG (101st in nation), but shoots solid percentages of 47.1% FG (37th in Div. I) and 36.2% threes (86th in nation). This is also a superb rebounding team with a +7.2 RPG margin (9th in Div. I).

SG Nick Johnson (16.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is the leader of this team who has put up strong numbers in the NCAA Tournament (17.5 PPG, 60% threes, 3.5 RPG) despite his cold shooting on Thursday. He is a big-time athlete that does a great job of getting to the rim. If the Wildcats are able to get into the transition game, Johnson becomes very difficult to slow down.

SF Aaron Gordon (12.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG) played a huge role in Thursday's comeback, as his alley-oop dunk help sparked the momentum back into the Wildcats favor. So far in the NCAA Tournament, he is scoring 17.0 PPG (71% FG) with 7.0 RPG.

Two other key frontcourt players include 7-foot C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who are most needed for rebounding and interior defense. Wisconsin will play the type of defense that is necessary to slow down Arizona, as it rarely allows easy baskets.

The key will be if the Badgers can limit its turnovers. They do a great job of hanging on to the ball, which will limit the Wildcats from getting into transition. However, if Arizona’s defense can force some turnovers, it could be a difficult game for Wisconsin.


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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Dayton vs. Florida

Dayton's Cinderella run is alive and well. Defeating Ohio State, Syracuse and most recently Stanford the Flyers try to extend the dream when they collide with top-seeded Florida in the Elite Eight. A MONEY-MAKING 11-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, 10-2 as underdogs, 7-1 ATS on neutral court the Flyers certainly hit the hardwood with encouraging betting numbers. Flyer backers can also take comfort in knowing the last two #11-seeds in this round (VCU, George Mason) pulled the upset over the #1-seed. Déjà Vu all over again ? Not likely. Expect Gators to kick into gear it's trademark pressing, punishing defense (57.8 PPG on 39.9% shooting). Besides, Gators have been here before and Billy Donovan will remind the troops about the bad taste from last years Elite Eight loss. You bet against Florida at your own risk. Gators have thrived as favorites of 12 or less points of late posting a 7-1 ATS mark at the betting window. If that were not enough, Donovan's troops are 16-9-1 ATS holding opponents to =<65 points/game and have a 5-1 ATS stretch last six in Tourney action performing the feat.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Saturday, March 29

Florida vs. Dayton
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

For the fourth consecutive season, Florida (35-2 straight up, 18-14-1 against the spread) is one game away from the Final Four. In its three previous trips to the Elite Eight, Billy Donovan's team came up short.

In 2011 at the South Region finals in New Orleans, UF allowed a double-digit lead midway through the second half to get away in an overtime loss to Butler. The Gators had to check into the Heartbreak Hotel in St. Louis again the next year. Yet again, they blew a double-digit second-half advantage and lost a nail-biter to Louisville.

There was no gut-wrenching loss against Michigan in Dallas at last year's South Region finals. It was just a straight-up beatdown for the Gators from the Wolverines, who cruised to a blowout win behind the hot shooting of Nik Stauskas from 3-point range.

UF handed UCLA a pink slip from the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 2006 on Thursday night at FedEx Forum in Memphis. The Gators were in control from start to finish en route to a 79-68 win as 4.5-point favorites. The 147 combined points jumped 'over' the 139.5-point total.

Sophomore guard Michael Frazier II was the catalyst with a game-high 19 points to go with six rebounds and three assists. Frazier drained 5-of-8 from 3-point range and hit four straight treys at one points in the first half.
   
Scottie Wilbekin added 13 points and three assists without committing a turnover. Casey Prather was also in double figures with 12 points, while Dorian Finney-Smith finished with 10 points, six rebounds, four assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Jordan Adams paced the Bruins in the losing effort with a team-best 17 points. Kyle Anderson contributed 11 points, nine rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals, but he was forced into a mediocre 4-of-11 shooting night mostly due to solid defense from Finney-Smith.

As of early Saturday morning, most books had Florida installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 132.5. Gamblers can take the Flyers to win outright for a monster +490 return (risk $100 to win $490). For first-half bets, Florida is favored by six with a total of 61.5.

Dayton (26-10 SU, 20-12 ATS) got to the South Region semifinals by winning twice by three combined points against Ohio State and Syracuse in Buffalo. Then on Thursday night in Memphis, Archie Miller's squad raced out to an early double-digit advantage and cruised to an 82-72 victory as a 3.5-point underdog. The Flyers hooked up money-line backers with a +135 return.

Jordan Sibert hit four treys and led a quartet of Dayton players in double figures with 18 points. Devin Oliver added 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists.

UD has thrived as an underdog this season. In 12 such spots, the Flyers are 10-2 ATS with nine outright wins. Assuming the number holds, this will be Dayton's first double-digit 'dog spot of the year. The Flyers' richest previous games as 'dogs were catching 8.5 in a pair of outright wins over Gonzaga and Syracuse.

Again, if the number holds, Florida will be a double-digit 'chalk' for the 16th time. The Gators are 7-7-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.

The 'over' is 17-14 overall for Dayton.

The 'under' has been a steady money maker in UF games all season long, cashing at a 21-11-1 overall clip.

Dayton-Florida will tip at 6:05 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

If Florida can get past Dayton, it has all sorts of potential revenge matchups as possibilities in Dallas. The only teams that have beaten UF this year -- UConn and Wisconsin -- are still alive in the Elite Eight. Michigan, which demolished the Gators in Dallas last year, is in the Midwest Region finals. There's Louisville (pending result with Kentucky), which sent UF packing two years ago. And there's Michigan St. (pending result with Virginia), which beat Florida in the 2000 finals and ousted them in Tampa in a second-round showdown more than a decade ago.

Pat Young and Casey Prather should have fresh legs after being limited to 20 and 19 minutes, respectively, versus UCLA.

Some offshore shops have posted proposition bets. For instance, the 'over/under' for Wilbekin's points is 13.5 (-110 either way). Frazier's total for points is 11.5 and I'm bullish on that to go 'over.'

I n an epic thriller in Indianapolis, Kentucky rallied to beat Louisville 74-69 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Wildcats advanced to the Midwest Region finals where they will face Michigan.

Michigan held off Tennessee to capture a 73-71 as a two-point favorite. For sharp bettors that got on Michigan at -1.5 early in the week, Nik Stauskas's missed free throw in the final seconds didn't hurt them. The Volunteers took advantage of four consecutive Michigan turnovers at crunch time to rally and have a chance at the end. However, a controversial charging call on Jarnell Stokes was the difference in the game. Several things here that should be noted. If the ref lets 'em play and doesn't blow the whistle, Caris LaVert had a steal for Michigan. On the flip side, if a block is called (that would've been equally as shaky a whistle, by the way), Stokes goes to the line for two shots trailing by one. But the main point is that UT caught a monster break when a replay review inexplicably gave the Vols the ball when it was clear that Jeronne Maymon knocked a loose ball out of bounds. And that was the call that preceded UT's furious rally.

Why is Michigan still alive? Jordan Morgan! He had 15 points and 10 boards in outplaying Texas's highly-touted 'bigs' (Cameron Ridley and Johnathan Holmes) last week. Then Morgan went for 15 and seven against Maymon and Stokes, who had his least-productive game of the tourney (11 and six).

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