This Week's Best NBA Bets
This Week's Best NBA Bets
This Week's Best NBA Bets
Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of March 3-9
Hottest ATS - Houston Rockets (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Houston was perfect straight up last week, earning impressive home victories over Miami, Indiana and Portland while squeezing in a comfortable win in Orlando. They were within a basket of covering against the Trail Blazers, prevailing 118-113 in overtime after entering as a 6.5-point fave. The Rockets are quickly becoming the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs, with James Harden playing some of the best basketball of his career.
Coldest ATS - Indiana Pacers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)
It's panic time in the Hoosier State after the Pacers put up what was easily the worst one-week performance of an otherwise sensational season. Indiana lost all four games - three by double digits - and hit the low point of its year with losses to Charlotte and Houston by a combined 48 points. The Pacers have struggled to score all season - and while that wasn't a concern when they had the league's stoutest defense, that unit has been torched for triple-digit points in three straight games, while giving up 30 3-pointers over that stretch.
Best Over play - Milwaukee Bucks (1-3 SU, 4-0 O/U)
While the Lakers win the award for the "overest" overs of the week, the Bucks have been the more consistent team when it comes to game-by-game over totals. With Milwaukee already looking ahead to next year, its games have been high-paced back-and-forth affairs - and while the Bucks will probably lose far more than they'll win the rest of the way, they look like a strong over play. In their last three games - losses to Sacramento, New Orleans and Washington - all ended better than 12 points higher than the total.
Best Under play - Portland Trail Blazers (1-3 SU, 1-3 O/U)
Talk about a role reversal: Once the darlings of the over sphere, Portland was one of the league's top "under" plays last week. The Blazers began with a one-point loss to the Lakers - despite going in as a 12-point fave - and followed that up with a blowout win over the Atlanta Hawks and narrow losses to the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets. Only the Houston game went over the total - and that was only because it went to overtime; had it ended in regulation, Portland would have had its first perfect under week of the season.
Surveying the schedule
The Phoenix Suns continue their improbable run to a postseason berth this week - and will be getting back a key player, as well. Guard Eric Bledsoe is expected to return from a knee injury in time for Wednesday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, though he has left open the possibility of coming back Monday night in Los Angeles. The Suns will play three of their four games away from Phoenix, visiting the Clippers before hosting the Cavaliers and returning to the road for games in Boston and Toronto.
Re: This Week's Best NBA Bets
NBA ATS Short List
By Robbie Gainous
The NBA season has eclipsed the halfway point and the college season is nearing the Madness that makes it great. As we do each season we take a look at the best NBA teams against the spread on a weekly basis to help keep our readers informed as to who is producing profits and who is blazing a path to the ATS poor house. We have included as we always do a strong team angle and a pair of solid systems as a bonus. On to the list…
NBA ATS Overall Leaders
This list reveals the Top 5 NBA teams against the spread overall including at home and on the road. Phoenix holds the Number 1 overall position with a solid mark of 38-21-1 ATS for 64.4 percent winners and a profit of +14.9 Units. The Number 2 overall position is four percentage points below the Suns but the Toronto Raptors have made their backers money this season. The overall against the spread mark for the Raptors is 35-23-1 ATS for 60.3 percent winners, a profit of +9.7 units and a solid hold on the Number 2 position. Number 3 Against the Spread overall are the LA Clippers with a 36-26 ATS record for 58.1 percent and a profit of +7.4 units. The Number 4 ATS overall position is held by Charlotte who has produced a record of 33-25-3 ATS for 56.9 percent winners and a profit of +5.5 units. The fifth and final spot in our ATS Short List is Washington with a record of 33-26-2 ATS for 55.9 percent winners and a profit of +4.4 units. KEY ANGLE: The Phoenix Suns are 55-24-4 ATS for 69.6 percent winners with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed at least fifty percent from the field.
NBA ATS Home Leaders
This list isolates the best NBA teams against the spread when playing at home. In this group we have a tie at the top with Indiana and Phoenix sharing the Number 1 sport. The Pacers and Suns have identical against the spread records when playing on their home floor going 19-13-1 ATS for 59.4 percent winners. The Atlanta Hawks are next on our list with a home spread record of 16-11 ATS for 59.3 percent winners and a profit of +3.9 units. The fourth team on the home ATS short list is Charlotte with a solid 16-12-2 ATS mark on their home floor for 57.1 percent spread winners. The fifth and final team to make the list, the Nets who come in with a 16-13 ATS mark in Brooklyn. KEY SYSTEM: Play ON NBA road teams coming off a road game with no rest and losing ATS by at least seven points versus an opponent coming off a road game scoring at least 100 points. This system has a record of 63-32-4 ATS for 66.3 percent winners.
NBA ATS Road Leaders
This portion of our ATS Short list has the winningest ATS group of teams with the top three all winning at better than seventy percent against the spread when playing away from home this season. Number 1 on the list is Washington who has been money away from home posting a record of 22-8 ATS for 73.3 percent winners and a profit of +13.2 units. Coming in at Number 2 is the group from north of the border with the Raptors record in America 21-9 ATS for 70 percent winners and a profit of +11.1 units. Number 3 is the all too familiar Phoenix Suns with a 19-8 ATS road record for 70.4 percent winners and a profit of +10.2 units playing away from the desert. The Dallas Mavericks make the list at Number 4 with a record of 21-12 ATS for 63.6 percent winners and a profit of +7.8 units when playing away from Big D. The final team to make the road short list is still cashing tickets at a rate of 62.5 percent as the LA Clippers road record stands at 20-12 ATS when playing away from the City of Angels. This is by far the strongest group it is apparent that these five teams are still receiving solid line value when they take to the highway. We will continue to watch this group when they take to the highway and you may want to do the same. KEY SYSTEM: Play ON NBA favorites when facing teams who are coming off two or more wins straight up as road underdogs. These favorites are 130-80-3 ATS for 61.9 percent winners.
Re: This Week's Best NBA Bets
NBA Betting Report
With the month of February in the rear mirror it's worthwhile to take stock at which teams have been consistently good or bad against the line heading into the stretch run.
Sifting through the maze of statistics, situations our trusted NBA betting database found sports bettors laying points on NBA favorites to this point was a toss-up as favorites posted a 469-455-16 mark against-the-number. Home favorites being a losing cause at 298-315-12 against the betting line while road chalks reward backers with a 171-140-4 record at the betting window.
Breaking the numbers down by spread. Home favorites of -3.5 or less were a bust at 79-83-3 while road favorites in that range hit at a 57.5% clip recording a 84-58-4 ATS mark. In the -4 to -6.5 point range home teams are dismal performers against-the-spread (86-91-1) with road teams 55-56 ATS. Pop the number into the -7 to -9.5 range homies were still a losing cause (79-76-4). Roadies squeaked out a small profit in the range going 21-18 ATS. Betting a double-digit home chalks depleted betting accounts to the tune of 54-65-4 but the DD road favorite paid dividends posting a 11-8 ATS record.
As the numbers show taking a road favorite in the -3.5 or less range is a good choice with the number crunching machine telling us Wizards (4-0), Thunder (4-1), Mavericks (7-2) being the best on the road laying a small number.
Here are few simple team situational betting nuggets to help in your search for profits as the season moves forward.
- Road faves of -3.5 or less revenging a loss are 18-8-1 ATS.
- Knicks 7-1 ATS as home chalk revenging a previous loss.
- Spurs are 2-6 ATS as home chalk revenging a previous loss.
- Miami Heat 0-3 ATS as a road favorite off an overtime game.
- Hawks 0-4 ATS after an overtime affair.
- Raptors are 5-0 ATS following an overtime game.
- Clippers 3-1 ATS as road fave without rest
- Pacers 3-7 ATS as road fave with little shut-eye.
- Pistons, Heat 3-0 ATS without rest playing a division opponent.
- Raptors 3-0 ATS as fave w/2days rest playing division opponent.
- Grizzlies 4-1 ATS as road dogs w/2days rest playing division opponent.
Off Upset Win
- Bucks 1-8 ATS after an upset victory
- Bulls 4-0 ATS as road dogs off DD loss.
- Clippers 10-2 ATS off loss as a favorite.
- Spurs 6-0 ATS as road chalk off a loss as a favorite.
- Nets 0-3 ATS off a 1 point loss
- Thunder 4-0 ATS off 1 to 3 point loss
- Mavs 4-1 ATS as road fave after shredded for =>115 pts
- Mavs 1-3 ATS as home fave after allowing =>115 pts
- Blazers 0-5 ATS after netting =>120 pts
- Rockets 0-5 O/U after scoring =>120 pts
Streaking (L14 days)
- Nets, Bulls are 6-2 ATS
- Pacers 1-7 ATS
- Hawks 1-6 ATS
- Blazers 1-6 O/U
- Bucks 6-1 O/U
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