Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Dave Cokin

Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan -12.5

Laying a big number with a team that’s not good offensively is not generally a great recipe for success. But that’s the route I’m taking tonight as the MAC tourney gets underway with a quartet of first round battles.

If you’re looking for a team that’s entertaining to watch, you might want to avoid Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are the ultimate grinders. The offense is mediocre to put it mildly, and playing at a snail’s pace suits head coach Rob Murphy just fine.

Credit Murphy for taking a team that was not well regarded prior to the season and turning them into a squad that could be a very tough out in this MAC event. This is the best defense in the conference and if they can just show a little more efficiency on offense for a short stretch, the Eagles will have a chance to win this thing.

I see Central Michigan as the ideal matchup for EMU. The Chippewas are as bad as it gets on defense. This team can’t stop much of anything, and they’ve been guilty of giving up way too many soft looks to the opposition all season. Against a team like Eastern Michigan, that’s bad news. If EMU is able to convert the takeaways into easy hoops, this won’t be close.

It’s double revenge for Central Michigan from the two regular season results. Tournament favorites that won both regular season games are now an amazing 32-10 ATS. There has to be some regression from that astounding ratio, but I don’t see it happening here.

Unless Eastern Michigan takes the court with an air of complacency and eases off on the defensive effort, I see this being a relatively easy win for the Eagles. I’ll give the points with Eastern Michigan to get past the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Tony Karpinski

Denver vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -5

The Charlotte Bobcats haven't enjoyed much of a home-court advantage in recent years. But more recently, visits to Charlotte have proven to be much more difficult. Charlotte tries to match its second-longest home winning streak in team history Monday night when it hosts the Denver Nuggets. The Bobcats (29-34) were 4-29 at home in 2011-12 and 15-26 last year for a .257 winning percentage that ranked last in the NBA over that span. This season, they're 17-14 and have won six straight. They are tough at home and play defense, something the Nuggets do not do! Lastly the Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. I like the Bobcats here at home to get the win and cover on Monday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Wunderdog

Manhattan vs. Iona
Pick: Iona +120

The Metro Atlantic Conference Championship has seen the top two teams hold serve, and will play for an NCAA bid tonight, and a Conference Championship. These teams split the two regular season games, each winning at home, but the Gaels got the better of the Jaspers, winning comfortably at home, and losing on the road by just three in overtime. Isaiah Williams will again be a key factor for the Gaels as he has controlled the paint, blocking 10 shots in the two games. The Jaspers are just 4-9 ATS following an ATS win, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against a team over .600. The Gaels are a perfect 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss, and look to be a dangerous dog here against a team that they were simply better than during the regular season. Make the play on Iona on the moneyline.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Alex Smart

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga    
Play: Gonzaga -6½

Gonzaga enters this WCC tourney having cut down the nets in 10 of the last 13 events and are 28-4 SU over that time. They took out feisty Santa Clara by a 77-75 count to reach this semi final game against St.Marys today. Meanwhile the Gaels easily handled Pepperdine by a 80-69 score to get here.

In the regular season the Bulldogs won both season series match-ups -crushing St.Marys by 22 & 28 points respectively. Considering the matchup discrepancies that became evident during their meetings this season its pretty obvious Gonzaga matches up very well vs St.Marys and look to be solid choices against the spread again.

St.Marys is 0-8 ATS L/8 in conference tourney action when they are dogs of 6 or more points!


Alex Smart's Featured Package

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Dave Price

Washington Wizards +6½

Miami will be trying to avoid its first four-game losing streak since 2011, but it likely won't have enough left in the tank to cover this number following last night's overtime loss in Chicago. The Heat are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest while the Wizards are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing with one day of rest. The Heat also likely won't have the services of Dwayne Wade, who is expected to be rested. While Miami is back home, it is just 1-11 ATS the last two seasons in home games after playing three consecutive games on the road. The road has treated the Wizards well. They are 17-14 SU and 22-9 ATS on foreign courts this season. They are 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games versus teams that have a winning home record. The Wizards are also 7-0-1 ATS versus division opponents this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. While Miami can draw further motivation from an embarrassing 114-97 defeat in Washington in the most recent meeting, we can't ignore the fact that home teams playing on back-to-back days and seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 110 points or more are just 50-99 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Michael Alexander

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche    
Play: Colorado Avalanche -165

After falling to the Central Division leader, the Colorado Avalanche look to rebound when they host one of the cellar dwellers in the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. Colorado saw its four-game winning streak come to an end with a 2-1 setback to St. Louis on Saturday. PA Parenteau scored the lone goal for the Avalanche, who lost United States Olympian Paul Stastny to a back injury in the first minute of the contest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

MP Sports

Atlanta Hawks -1

The Hawks have lost 14 of their last 15. That is not a misprint. They went into a tailspin and Paul Millsap's injury only exacerbated their issues during their recent west coast swing. However, they do not fit the general mold of the tanking team flubbing their way down the stretch. Teague signed an extension last offseason, they added an All-Star in Millsap, and also re-signed Korver. The Hawks are just in the midst of a prolonged stretch of poor play. The Jazz, however, are built to lose and had a 5 game losing streak of their own snapped in their previous game against the 76ers... and we all know what the 76ers are going through right now. The difference in talent between these two teams is VAST. The Hawks' extended run of losing has pushed this number to a place it should never have gotten to. Atlanta gets a win tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Ray Monohan

Gonzaga -6½

Gonzaga escaped against Santa Clara to make it to the semi-finals of the WCC tournament. There is no doubt this team is not as good as last year’s but I think they make it to the Tournament regardless of this outcome and now that they have overcome a scare they should be ready to rock and roll. Last week they beat St. Mary’s on the road by 28 and have a home win over them by a similar margin. To be frank I am not sure why this number is so small. If it is because of the game in the quarterfinals this is a great buying opportunity.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Bob Balfe

Gonzaga -6.5

Gonzaga has dominated both matchups this year and has owned this team as of late. In a game this important I just don’t see anything changing. The statement you hear is that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a row. Why? I don’t agree with it at all. We take the better team that can rebound the ball better and whatever happens is what happens.

Western Carolina +3

Western Carolina is peaking right time and they have a great offense. This Wofford team plays great defense, but they do go in scoring droughts which makes that defense have to be on their A game or they will be in trouble. This Western Carolina team also grabbed more rebounds in their two meetings this year and again momentum means everything. Take Western Carolina.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Harry Bondi

TORONTO (+2) over Brooklyn

Very quietly, Toronto is a team on rise and we've cashed more than a few winning tickets on the Raptors over the last few weeks as they have gone 7-3 straight-up and against the spread. They have been an especially profitable bet on the road this year, going 22-9 ATS. Brooklyn has also played very well as of late, but with a date with Miami on deck, we'll call for an unfocused effort here from the injury-plagued Nets and call for the Raptors to come in a steal a victory against a team they have already won and covered in the previous two meetings this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

OC Dooley

Manahttan / Iona Over 157

This is the championship of the Metro-Atlantic Conference where the same two sides are squaring for a second consecutive year.  The 2013 version of the championship game featured a total (134’) that was radically lower than what we are looking at this evening so the oddsmakers have made a loud statement.  Back in the quarterfinal round Iona lit up the scoreboard to the tune of 94 points and their senior star Sean Armond ranked #2 during the regular campaign in conference “three pointers” nailed from behind the arc.  Manhattan in their seminfinals appearance scored a hefty 87 points and they are led by George Beamon who is fourth on the school’s all-time scoring list.  Manhattan also has seniors Michael Alvarado and Rhmael Brown who both have reached the 1,000 career point plateau

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Delaware/ William & Mary Over 152.5:  Both teams run up and down the court, score allot of points and play little defense. That's a nice recipe for an over play. William & Mary comes in averaging 73.2 ppg and they have scored 74.6 ppg on 49.6% shooting in their last 5 games. The Blue Hens come in averaging 79.7 ppg, which is 24th in the nation and they have score 94 pg on 52.5% shooting on neutral site games this year. Defense has been optional for the Blue Hens this year as they have allowed 75.2 ppg, to rank 303rd in the nation. They have allowed 75 ppg in the first 2 games of this tourney and have allowed 76.1 ppg in all games away from home this year. Williams & Mary actually allows just 71.5 ppg on the year, but teams shoot 46.3% vs them (289th) and in two meetings vs the Blue Hens this year they allowed 89 and 76 points. This should be a high scoring game. Both teams score well and both are playing for an invite to the Big Dance so it could turn into a foul fest in the end as well.

Eastern Michigan/ Central Michigan Under 132.5:  I had an under play on EMU at Toledo and it lost, but I will come back with an Under play in this home game for them. The teams met earlier this year on this floor and just 106 points were scored in that game. Now going back a little and we note that the last 5 meetings between these teams on this floor has produced just 104.4 ppg, with none of those games putting up more that 116 points. CMU has averaged 72.9 ppg on the year, but they have scored just 101 total points in the two games vs EMU this year, plus EMU allows just 57.7 ppg on 35.4% shooting at home this year. Central Michigan is a poor defensive squad, especially on the road, where they allow 76.3 ppg, but EMU will slow the game down and are not a team that likes to play in the 70's. They average just 66.7 ppg at home, including just 65.4 ppg in their last 5 on this floor. I don't see this game hitting 125, let alone 133. Lower 120's at best here. 

BYU/ San Francisco Under 155: BYU loves to play the uptempo, but still the Under is 13-3 in their last 16 neutral site games and in the last meetings between these teams (which was at BYU) just 131 points were scored. San Francisco has won 10 of their last 12 games and their season really took an upturn when they started slowing the pace down and playing good defense. During that 12 game only one game was played in the 150's and that was the 155 points that were put up in a game vs Portland. In those last 12 San Francisco game, just 134.1 ppg have been scored. The Dons have allowed just 62.3 ppg in tehir last 8 games, while BYU has allowed just 67.6 ppg on 40.3% shooting in their last 5 games. I just do see much more than a game in the lower 140s here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

John Ryan

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks    
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +16

The simulator shows a high probability that the 76ers will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. This line reflects a team that has lost total confidence in the head coach and the system and is simply going through the motions. However, even though the 76ers have lost 16 straight games, HC Brown is a great teacher of the game. He has the youngest roster in the NBA and they are in position to become a Division contender with just a few seasons. So, I do not think he lost this team at all as each player is on a learning curve and is being evaluated to see if any of them will remain for the rebuilding process. MCW, Young, Wroten, Thompson will be part of that core. The rest are auditioning for free agency and join other NBA teams in 2014-15 season. Now, the Knicks are a team in flux and now they have the media circus of Zen Master Jackson entering the scene. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-33 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) that are solid offensive teams scoring 98 to 102 PPG and is now facing an inconsistent defensive team allowing 98 to 102 PPG and after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. Take the 76ers.


San Francisco vs. BYU    
Play: BYU -5

The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-13 ATS mark for 77% winners since 2008. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (BYU) and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=76 PPG and is now facing a solid offensive team scoring 74 to 76 PPG and after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. The summary of my research clearly shows that BYU just has too much offensive punch for San Francisco to contain for 40 minutes of game action. The two matchups played this season were quite competitive with BYU winning both and certainly not with their 'A' game. They shot a horrid 29% from beyond the arc and hit only 48% of their free throws in a five point win February 8. BYU outrebounded them 47-29 and had a whopping 18 offensive boards. BYU will again control the boards and the wider the rebounding margin the greater the probability that BYU wins this game by double digits. Take BYU.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Joe Gavazzi

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga    
Play: Gonzaga -6½

This is the most profitable week in the college hoop season. Join me every day to make more money than you ever dreamed imaginable in a single week of sports betting. It all starts with my College Hoops 10* Money-Making Mismatch tonight will be a high scoring double digit victory and with NBA on a 14-8 (64%) run get another Top 10* NBA winner tonight. What you invest is a pittance compared to what you will win. The loss of St. Mary’s lead guard, Matt Dellavedova, has hurt the Gaels more than expected. Under the outstanding coaching of 13th year mentor, Randy Bennett, the Gaels cobbled together a 22 win season. Unlike other seasons when they challenged the Zags for WCC superiority, St. Mary’s finished with a meager 11-7 SU league mark and a No. 4 seed in the CCT. The perimeter is led by Stephen Holt, who has shown like a beacon at times this season. The interior is the domain of Brad Waldow. But, the supporting cast has been greatly lacking. Along the way, it became another season of dominance by the rival Zags. Last season, which was one of the finest by the Gaels, the Zags beat them by 5, 17 and 14 points. This season, the whippings were more thorough by counts of 75-47 and 73-51. That makes it 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS recently for the Zags in what could kindly be called a rivalry. Too much perimeter pop for Gonzaga in the persons of Pangos, Bell and Stockton. Dower and Karnowski are a lethal tandem on the interior, who have been critical in the Zags Defensive Dandy status keyed by positives in rebound margin, TO margin, and Assist/TO ratio. This one has the chance to be over rather quickly.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 10

Dr. Bob

Opinion – CHARLOTTE (-5) over Denver

Denver is certainly better with Ty Lawson back but they’re still not as good as their season rating and are not likely to give a full effort after having to play overtime last night in New Orleans. My ratings favor Charlotte by 7½ points and I’ll lean with the Bobcats based on the line value.

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