NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 4

NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 4

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Golden State at Indiana

Pacers have been a terrible play for bettors of late posting a 2-8-1 ATS mark at the betting window. A change in fortune looks to be in the making. Pacers one of the few Eastern Conference teams enjoying success vs the Western Conference this season at 17-7 (14-10 ATS) are 8-3 ATS last eleven vs Warriors including 5-0 ATS as a home favorite. Look for Warriors to fall to 1-6 ATS vs a defensive minded team allowing =<95 points/game

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 4

NBA Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

Bettors beware of Warriors in Indiana

The Golden State Warriors have a long standing history of not covering in Indiana. In the past 12 games the Warriors have traveled to the Hoosier State, they are 1-11 ATS with the one cover coming all the way back on Feb. 5, 2007.

The Warriors will be +5.5-points when they visit the Indiana Pacers Tuesday.


Pelicans are have been bad SU, no better ATS

The New Orleans Pelicans have been on a terrible 1-10 skid and bettors have found no solace backing them against the spread. The Pelicans are an abysmal 1-8-2 ATS during their last 11 games with their one cover coming 10 days ago.

The Pelicans will be 2-point road dogs when they travel to LA to take on the Lakers Tuesday. 


Thunder open with biggest line of the season

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as 20-point home favorites for their game against the Philadelphia 76ers Tuesday. The line has since moved to -20.5 for the Thunder, showing that bettors are still backing Oklahoma City despite the massive spread.

Before the Thunder and 76ers' huge spread, the largest point differential of the season was 15.5.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 4

Game of the Day: Heat at Rockets
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets (+1, 210)

The Houston Rockets are hoping LeBron James left all of his points at home. James will attempt to follow up his career-high 61-point effort on the second night of a back-to-back when the Miami Heat visit the Rockets on Tuesday. The superstar forward went 22-of-33 from the floor against the Charlotte Bobcats and threw in seven rebounds and five assists while posting the highest scoring total in franchise history.

Houston is capable of putting up some gaudy scoring numbers of its own and might have to turn Tuesday’s contest into a race with the Heat if Dwight Howard, who sat out practice on Monday due to back soreness, can’t go. The Rockets have taken 11 of their last 13, including a 129-103 win at Sacramento last week in which James Harden went off for 43 points in 31 minutes. Harden could have to deal with Dwyane Wade, who watched James’ historic night from the sidelines while resting but is expected to dress on Tuesday.

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1-point home underdog at some books. Others waited to post odds due to Dwight Howard's unknown status. The total opened at 210 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.5) - Houston (-11.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Pick

INJURY WATCH: Rockets - Greg Smith (Ques. Knee), Chandler Parsons (Ques. Illness), Dwight Howard (Ques. Neck)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tough scheduling situation for the Rockets as they will be playing three games in the next four days, including a one-game road trip to Orlando Wednesday which is sandwiched between this big home game against the Heat and another huge home game Friday night versus the Pacers. Unusual last season, as Houston lost both games versus Miami, but the Rockets still covered both as underdogs. Different situation in this year, as they are no longer getting points." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Both these teams come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. I see this being a good measuring stick game for the Rockets going up against the two-time defending champion Heat." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE HEAT (42-14 SU, 26-28-2 ATS, 32-24 O/U): James’ record night was the latest in a string of remarkable performances from the reigning MVP, who is shooting 67.2 percent from the field in three games while wearing a protective mask over his broken nose. “I think what helped was we couldn’t get no stops in the fourth quarter,” James told reporters of his record night. “That allowed me to stay in the game. … I wanted to try to close it out and I was happy I was able to make a few plays to help us win the game.” “King James” has shot 50 percent or better in each of his last eight games and is averaging 35.3 points in that span.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (40-19 SU, 30-27-2 ATS, 28-29-2 O/U): Houston is in a battle with the Los Angeles Clippers and the Portland Trail Blazers for the Nos. 3-5 spots in the Western Conference and will face championship contenders Miami, Indiana, Portland and Oklahoma City over the next five games. The Rockets built up a 21-point lead after the first quarter against Detroit on Saturday but had to hold on for a 118-110 win. “I didn’t really like the way we came out in the second half,” Howard told reporters. “I thought we really should have kept the foot on the gas but we didn’t. We allowed them to get back in the game. That’s not what we need to do if we want to be a championship team.”

TRENDS:


* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Houston.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference.

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 4

Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

We’ve got a little more than six weeks of regular season action remaining in the NBA and if the recent league trends continue, the guys behind the betting counter might close up shop early.

From last Monday to Sunday, favorites went 43-6 straight up (87.7%). When you look at the overall numbers this season, you can see that this is a big deal considering favorites have won just under 70 percent of their games straight up.

For our purposes, against the spread (ATS) records are far more important and the favorites didn’t let up in that department either last week. The ‘chalk’ went 31-17-1 (64.5%) over the 7-day span and there were a couple back-door covers that actually hurt this number.

The bleeding continued for the bookmakers on Monday as the favorites went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The lone team to capture the upset was the L.A. Lakers, who knocked off Portland 107-106 as 12-point underdogs (ML +700). Including last night’s results, favorites are now 50-7 SU and 37-19-1 ATS (66%) over the last eight days.

Will the underdogs finally bark tonight? I personally believe all things will eventually balance out but I’d still tread lightly for now.

Let’s take a closer look at Tuesday’s six-game card.

Golden State (36-24 SU, 29-29 ATS) at Indiana (46-13 SU, 33-25 ATS)

The one opening number that makes no sense to me for Tuesday’s card is the Pacers -5½ against the Warriors. On Jan. 20, Indiana stopped Golden State 102-94 as a two-point road underdog, which was its fifth win in the last six meetings between the pair. Last season, these teams met in Indiana and the Pacers dropped the Warriors 108-97 as 8½-point favorites. It’s pretty obvious that Indiana is much-improved this season and it’s also clear that Golden State has taken a step back. Yet, the Pacers are laying three points less a year later. See what I mean?

Golden State has gone 2-2 on its current six-game road trip and the two wins came against the Pistons and Knicks. The losses versus the Bulls and Raptors. On Wednesday, the Warriors wrap up the trip at Boston and based on these tendencies, I’d lean to the visitor.

Others might argue the line is fair considering Indiana’s current form. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers are 6-1 SU but only 1-5-1 ATS. Plus their last three wins have come by a combined 13 points.

If you bet numbers and not names, then I’m sure you’re leaning Golden State tonight.

San Antonio (43-16 SU, 28-31 ATS) at Cleveland (24-37 SU, 28-33 ATS)

The Spurs opened as 6½-point road favorites and the number has settled at 7½-points on Monday. San Antonio has been a solid investment (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a road favorite but VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers believes the home ‘dog has value.

He explained, “The Spurs are coming off three consecutive wins at home, as San Antonio hits the road for just one game tonight at Cleveland before returning home on Thursday to host Miami in a major revenge spot. The Cavs have split eight games since the All-Star break, while owning a 9-3 ATS record since December as a home underdog. Cleveland was blown out at San Antonio the last time these teams met in Texas, as the Cavs should be up for this game against a Spurs' club that could be looking ahead. I'll take the points with the Cavs.”

Miami (43-14 SU, 27-28 ATS) at Houston (40-19 SU, 30-27 ATS)

LeBron James dropped a career-high 61 points last night in the Heat’s 124-107 win over the Bobcats, which was the team’s eighth straight win. Bettors riding Miami have been golden lately, watching the club go 6-0-2 ATS during their winning streak.

On Tuesday, the Heat begin a tough three-game road swing in Houston before heading to San Antonio and Chicago. The line opened pick ‘em but as of Tuesday morning, Miami has been listed as a short road favorite (-1) despite playing on no rest.

In back-to-back spots this season, Miami has gone 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS, with the losses coming at Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Total players should note that the ‘over’ is 7-3 in these situations for the Heat.

Houston has started the second-half of the season with a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark. The Rockets have only been catching points once this season at home and they defeated the Spurs 97-90 on Jan. 28 as two-point ‘dogs.

Dwight Howard (back) and Chandler Parsons (flu) are both banged up but listed as ‘probable’ for this matchup.

Philadelphia (15-45 SU, 22-38 ATS) at Oklahoma City (45-15 SU, 33-27 ATS)

The Thunder opened as 20-point home favorites over the 76ers and you could argue that the line should be higher. I reached out to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and asked him to dig up some numbers for me on this high point-spread. According to Marc and his database, he provided the below.

“There have been a total of 18 games with spreads of -20 or more in the NBA since 1990. The favorites are 9-9 ATS in these games. The highest was Cleveland -24.5 vs. Dallas on 12/23/1990 (won by 31). The most recent was Boston -22.5 over Miami on 3/30/2008 (won by 26).”

Whenever I see large numbers like this, I tend to stay away or play the favorite only because I never bet on an underdog in any sport unless I could see them winning outright. If you feel the 76ers can pull off the biggest upset of the season in the NBA, then take a shot on the generous money-line odds (40/1 – Bet $100 to win $4,000) at 5Dimes. Oklahoma City has won nine straight (8-1 ATS) against Philadelphia, which includes a 103-91 road win this season on Jan. 25.

L.A. Clippers (41-20 SU, 35-26 ATS) at Phoenix (35-24 SU, 37-20 ATS)

This is a nice matchup and the line tells you that it should be a competitive game. The Clippers opened as 3½-point road favorites and they’ll be looking to win and cover their fifth straight game. The Suns opened the second-half of the season with a 3-3 record but they showed some explosiveness over the weekend with back-to-back home wins and covers over the Pelicans (116-104) and Hawks (129-120). These teams met on Dec. 30 from the Staples Center and the Suns hammered the Clippers by 25 points (107-88) as 7½-point road underdogs. Los Angeles guard Jamal Crawford (calf) is expected to miss tonight’s game.

New Orleans (23-37 SU, 24-33 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (21-39 SU, 32-27 ATS)

Similar to the Thunder-76ers matchup, I don’t believe you can make an argument for either side. Both teams played Monday and dealing with fatigue hasn’t been good for the pair. The Lakers are 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS on zero days rest while the Pelicans are 3-12 SU and 5-9-3 ATS.

The line opened as a pick ‘em and early money moved the Lakers to 2½-point home favorites. Los Angeles did pull off a big upset at Portland last night and has now won two straight. However, make a note that the Lakers haven’t won three in a row since late November.

New Orleans has dropped eight straight games (1-6-1 ATS), four of the last five by double digits.

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