Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 3

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 3

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

NC Central/ Savannah State Under 126.5: Two teams that get on the national stage maybe once a year should provide some nervousness, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Savannah State doesn't need nervousness to struggle on offense, especially on the road where they have averaged just 57 ppg on 40.1% shooting for the year. I can't see them getting much more than that in this one vs an NC Central team that has allowed just 55.5 ppg on a mere 34.9% shooting on their home floor this year. Overall NC Central is 8th in the nation in points allowed (58.9 ppg) 4th in defensive FG% (37.3%) and 4th in 3 point defense (28%). Mid to lower 50's at best for Savannah State. On offense NC Central is solid and they do average 75.8 ppg at home, but the Tigers have played solid defense this year, allowing just 66 ppg overall and 67.1 ppg on the road. Savannah State will look to slow the pace and that should give both teams fewer possessions. 67-53 sounds about right for this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

NC State/ Pitt Under 136: Pittsburgh just doesn't play many games this high scoring. Their last game put up 166 points, but just 130 in regulation. Pittsburgh's last 9 games in regulation have averaged just 103.3 ppg, while their last 4 at home (Reg) have averaged just 110 ppg. Overall, Pittsburgh home games have averaged just 132.3 ppg and a big reason is a defense that has allowed just 59.5 ppg on this floor. It should be all that hard to keep NC State around that number, considering they score just 64.1 ppg on 41.1% shooting on the road. The Pitt offense has not been that good of late, averaging just 57.3 ppg (Reg) in their last 9 games and NC State has played solid defense on the road, allowing 68.8 ppg on just 40.6% shooting. Even if Pittsburgh hits 70 points in this game I just don't expect more than 60 points from NC State, which should keep up well under the number.

1 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Notre Dame Over 144.5: The North Carolina offense has been hot of late as they have averaged 79.4 ppg in their last 11 games and they have averaged 80 ppg at home this year. In their last game on this floor they put up 105 points on a Wake Forest defense that is a bit tougher than Notre Dame's. The Heels should be good for 80+ in this one. The Heels have allowed 67.3 ppg at home and the Irish have put up 66.8 ppg on the road so hitting at least 66 from Notre Dame should be no problem. 81-70 sounds about right for this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, March 3

OC Dooley

Xavier / Seton Hall Over 135.5

At most offshore locations this total opened up at the 138 point plateau but as the afternoon hours have progressed the spot has dipped creating in my mind over/under “value”.  The key to this selection surrounds the clash between these two teams almost exactly one month ago when a 68-60 contest held “under” a closing number (144’) that was substantially higher than what we are looking in the rematch.  In the February clash played on the first day of the month BOTH teams had high shooting percentages from the field (.447) so in my mind that “under” was an aberration.  For the entire season to date Seton Hall has gone 12-5 OVER/HOME where the average point production by the offense (75 ppg) has been relatively high.  Here is a 62-PERCENT SYSTEM (72-44 the past five years with a total in the 130’s) which plays teams like Seton Hall after playing below the number by 54+ combined points in a ten-game stretch OVER the total, with a win percentage between 45-and-55 on the season

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