This Week's Best NBA Bets
This Week's Best NBA Bets
This Week's Best NBA Bets
Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of Feb. 24-March 2.
Hottest ATS - Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Lob City is alive and well, as the Clippers rode the momentum of a big win in Oklahoma City to an unbeaten week. Los Angeles opened with a 123-110 victory in New Orleans, then returned home and clamped down on defense in back-to-back triumphs over the Houston Rockets and Pelicans. The strong bounceback following an 0-3 ATS stretch will be put to the test Wednesday as the Clippers visit a Phoenix Suns team that remains one of the top surprises in the league.
Coldest ATS - New Orleans Pelicans (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)
Injuries to Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday have finally caught up to the Pelicans, who suffered four straight double-digit losses as their overall skid reached seven. In addition to a pair of losses to the Clippers, New Orleans fell 108-89 in Dallas and 116-104 in Phoenix to drop to 0-3 over their five-game road trip. With Holiday out for the season and Anderson still without a timetable, things could get even uglier in the Big Easy as the team's depth continues to be tested.
Best Over play - Milwaukee Bucks (1-2 SU, 3-0 O/U)
With nothing left to play for but a prime spot in the NBA draft lottery, the Bucks have become a strong Over play. Last week opened with one of the biggest shootouts so far this season - a 130-110 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers - and ended with a narrow loss to the Indiana Pacers and a nine-point defeat against Brooklyn. Milwaukee's offense has improved over the past month, while the defense remains mediocre - so expect plenty more Overs down the stretch.
Best Under play - Portland Trail Blazers (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)
So much for owning one of the NBA's worst defenses. The Trail Blazers overcame an injury to power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, then continued to roll in his return late last week as they stretched both their winning and Under streaks to five games with a pair of victories over the Denver Nuggets and a win over the Brooklyn Nets. Portland has held opponents below 100 points in five straight games, showing off a new-found commitment commitment to defense.
Surveying the schedule
The Minnesota Timberwolves are running out of time in their quest to snag one of the final Western Conference playoff spots. The Timberwolves open the week in 10th place in the conference, a full 5 1/2 games back of the eighth-place Dallas Mavericks with just 24 games remaining. Minnesota, which received a major boost with the returns of center Nikola Pekovic and guard Kevin Martin, play in Denver on Monday before kicking off a four-game homestand against New York.
Re: This Week's Best NBA Bets
NBA Betting Report
With the month of February in the rear view mirror it's worthwhile to take stock as to how things have worked out against the betting line heading into the stretch run.
Sifting through the maze of statistics, situations our trusted NBA betting database found sports bettors laying points on NBA favorites was a toss-up as they're 428-428-15 against-the-number. Home favorite being the losing cause at 269-299-11 against the betting line with road chalks rewarding backers with a 159-129-4 record at the betting window.
Breaking numbers down by spread. Home favorites of -3.5 or less were a bust at 71-80-3 while road favorites in that range hit at a 57.7% clip recording a 82-56-4 mark. In the -4 to -6.5 point range home teams were dismal performers (79-87-1) with road teams a vig-losing 50-50. Pop the number into the -7 to -9.5 range homies were still a losing cause (70-75-4). Roadies squeaked out a small profit in the range going 18-16 ATS. Betting a double-digit home chalks depleted betting accounts to the tune of 49-57-3 but the DD road favorite paid dividends going 9-7 ATS.
As the numbers show taking a road favorite in the -3.5 or less range is a good choice with the number crunching machine telling us Wizards (4-0), Thunder (4-1), Mavericks (7-2) being the best on the road laying a small number.
Here are few simple team situational betting nuggets to help in your search for profits as the season moves forward.
- Road faves of -3.5 or less revenging a loss are 18-7-1 ATS.
- Knicks 7-1 ATS as home chalk revenging a previous loss.
- Spurs are 1-5 ATS as home chalk revenging a previous loss.
- Miami Heat 0-3 ATS as a road favorite off an overtime game.
- Hawks 0-4 ATS after an overtime affair.
- Bulls, Raptors 4-0 ATS following an overtime game.
- Clippers 3-1 ATS as road fave without rest
- Pacers 3-6 ATS as road fave with little shut-eye.
- Pistons, Heat 3-0 ATS without rest playing a division opponent.
- Raptors 3-0 ATS w/2days rest playing division opponent.
- Grizzlies 0-3 ATS w/2days rest playing division opponent.
Off Upset Win
- Bucks 1-8 ATS after an upset victory
- Suns, Warriors 5-0 ATS off DD loss.
- Clippers 10-2 ATS off loss as a favorite.
- Spurs 6-0 ATS as road chalk off a loss as a favorite.
- Nets 0-3 ATS off a 1 point loss.
- Thunder 4-0 ATS off 1 to 3 point loss.
- Mavs 4-1 ATS as road fave after shredded for =>115 pts
- Mavs 0-3 ATS as home fave after allowing =>115 pts
- Blazers 0-4 ATS after netting =>120 points
Re: This Week's Best NBA Bets
Best and Worst NBA Bets Out Of The Break
By Brian Covert
It’s been approximately 10 games since the All-Star break and we’re starting to get a sense of where everyone stands heading into the NBA’s stretch run.
With that in mind, we look at six teams – three hot and three cold – bettors may want to take notice of over the season’s final 20 games.
This is a weird one.
For the first 50 games it looked like the Milwaukee Bucks were captaining the S.S. Tankapaolooza but now that they’re within sight of shore and it seems they’ve decided to play some basketball. The result is a 3-4 SU record since the break and an impressive 5-2 record ATS.
They’ve played so well they’ve even crept within a couple of games of Philadelphia for second-last overall which makes one think management will have a talk with coach Larry Drew to quell any mutiny before they reach land.
Tom Thibodeau may be Bulls’ management’s worst nightmare.
See, the notion around the NBA is that you have to have a superstar to win and the easiest way to get a superstar is to bottom out and acquire him in the draft. But Thibs continues to make lemonade out of lemons and despite losing his one bonafide star - Derrick Rose - for the season, he just can’t let the Bulls go gently into the night. Case in point is a recent 10-game stretch that has seen Chicago go 8-2 both SU and ATS.
They currently sit third in the East and you can bet the reason the Pacers and Heat want to secure first in the conference is as much about avoiding Chicago in the second round as it is homecourt throughout the playoffs.
Yeah, yeah, yeah…the Heat as one of the NBA’s hottest teams is certainly not news to anyone. But it’s the manner in which they’re playing right now that has to be ominous for the rest of the league.
Case in point was Monday’s win over the Charlotte Bobcats in which Dwyane Wade sat and Leron James decided to drop 61 points on a Charlotte team that is one of the NBA’s better defensive teams and had been playing some decent basketball. This result came close on the heels of a win over the previously mentioned Bulls in which LeBron sat so Chris Bosh and Wade combined for 51.
The Heat are now going as many as 12 deep on any given night, have won 10 of 11 going 7-2-2 ATS, and one gets the sense they are just getting started on something special. The rest of the league better watch out.
One could’ve easily put the Philadelphia 76ers on this list, what with them having lost 14 in a row and covering just three in that span.
But then we’d be overlooking an Atlanta Hawks team that has been in free fall going 1-5 since the All-Star break and dropping 13 of 14 overall. What’s incredible is that they’re still in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, three games up on the Detroit Pistons.
But this might not be the case for long as the Hawks currently have four games left on a western road trip. All told they are 9-21 SU away from home this season and 11-18-1 ATS.
Breaking the Eastern Conference’s strangle hold on hottest and coldest teams are the Denver Nuggets. After all, a run that has seen you go 1-9 SU (3-6 ATS) just can’t be ignored.
There were rumblings that the team and first-year head coach Brian Shaw weren’t getting along with the bench boss going as far as calling out his players after the team’s 117-89 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Feb. 21.
"I felt like we had some guys that just decided they weren’t going to play tonight," Shaw told reporters after the game. "It’s unfortunate. We’re professionals, and as a staff we have to beg guys to give effort when they play."
Well the public admonishment seemed to light a fire under exactly no one as the Nuggets have dropped all five since including three in a row at home. Now with two more in the Mile High before a five-game road swing there’s no indication the SU streak will end. However oddsmakers may have begun adjusting to Denver’s downturn as the Nuggets have covered two in row despite losing both SU.
New York Knicks
If you thought Knick fans were angry before the All-Star break, imagine the dismay at their team since New Orleans.
The Knicks are a hideous 1-8 SU (3-6 ATS) over their last nine games, a streak in which they’ve lost by as many as 26 and 23 to Miami and Golden State respectively. The piece de resistance may have been Tuesday night when, after building a 14-point lead on the Detroit Pistons, the Knicks shot only 37 percent and scored 41 points in the second half en route to a 96-85 loss to the league’s 22nd best defense.
"At this point, man, I’m kind of running out of comments to talk to you guys about," Carmelo Anthony told reporters after the game. "It seemed like it’s becoming repetition, saying the same thing over and over. We got to try to find something else to talk about."
Knick fans certainly wish that were the case.