Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Jeff Alexander

Stanford +11

Stanford gave Arizona all it wanted and more in the first meeting, and I expect the Cardinal to give the Wildcats a game tonight as well. Playing underdogs of 10-19.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent of 3 points or less has resulted in a 41-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons provided they are also off a road loss of 10 points or more. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10 points or more off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference foe has resulted in a 75-40 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team off a double-digit loss in conference play. Grab the points with Stanford.

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Joe Gavazzi

Dallas +5.5

With the expected return tonight of Tony Parker, the Spurs should be at full strength for the first time in over a month. San Antonio has owned this rivalry with a recent record of 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. That includes victories this year of 116-107 and 112-90. Yet our selection today is on the double avenging Mavs who are in a pair of their ideal roles. The Mavs lost Friday night to the hard-charging Bulls, 100-91. It sets up a situation which finds a resilient Dallas team under current HC Carlisle to be a long term 47-22 ATS following a defeat, 15-8 ATS in that role this year. In addition, the Mavs have been NBA's best road team. Long term, Dallas is 48-27 ATS away including 22-7 ATS more recently. For the season, Dallas is 19-8 ATS in competitively priced games where the line is +6 to -6. Rival Mavs get their double revenge breaking the series strangle hold.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY +126 over San Jose

Here comes the Devils and the rest of the teams in the East had better hope that the Devils miss the playoffs because getting them in the first round will be no picnic. As soon as the Devils turned to Cory Schneider as their #1 goaltender, their fortunes turned with it. The Devils are 2-0 since the break while outscoring the opposition 11-3 in those two games. Since handing the #1 goaltending job to Schneider, New Jersey has picked up points in 12 of 17 games. Defensively, the Devils have allowed the fewest shots on net in the NHL. A close look reveals that they have allowed 20 shots on net or fewer in four of their past seven games and it’s a rare night when they allow more than 26 a game or nine a period. Now the Devils are beginning to score goals. It may also surprise you to learn that the Devils power-play ranks higher than San Jose’s and so does their penalty killing. Indeed the Sharks are a quality club but right now the Devils are playing too good to ignore at a price in their own building. Overlay.


Florida +137 over N.Y. ISLANDERS

Regulation only. Both these teams played yesterday and both were smoked. Florida lost at Columbus 6-3 while the Islanders lost to New Jersey, 6-1. For the Islanders, it was their second game back and had it not been for Michael Grabner scoring two shorthanded goals on the same penalty kill they would be 0-2. In the two games combined after the break, the Islanders have allowed 10 goals against. Before the break, the Islanders dropped two in a row and six of their previous eight games. That was with John Tavaras in action. Furthermore, the Islanders have allowed an alarming 19 goals against in their last four games. They’ve also allowed four goals or more in eight of their past 10. The Islanders are instant fade material in this price range because their defense and goaltending is brutal.

The Panthers goaltending is brutal also but they’re not the one’s laying such a big tag and that makes them playable. If the game was in Florida and the Panthers were the same price, then the Islanders would be playable. It’s all about value and no question that the Panthers offer it up here. The Panthers have scored seven times against Washington and Columbus in two games back since the Olympics and if they can get any sort of help from Tim Thomas today, they should be in a position to win this one. There are roughly just 20 games remaining and the Islanders players can’t be feeling too settled. There are rumors galore surrounding this team and that makes the playing conditions even more difficult. The Panthers are building something good. They are loaded with young talent at every level of the organization and all they need is quality goaltending to be hugely competitive every game. The Panthers have good direction with smart and stable ownership and a great GM in Dale Tallon while the Islanders ownership and GM situation compares with Buffalo's. The tag, stability, frame of mind and the fact that the Islanders have dropped six of their past seven at home make the Panthers very appealing here.


St. Louis -½ +128 over PHOENIX

Regulation only. At least when teams faced the Blues before, they looked down at the other end of the ice and knew they had a chance to score some goals because they usually saw Jaroslav Halak between the pipes. Now the Blue Notes made what could turn out to be one of the best moves in franchise history. Management knew they could not win a cup with poor goaltending but that is no longer the case, as Ryan Miller comes over and he’ll make his first start in his new digs. Incidentally, Buffalo had won three in a row after the break and it was all Miller in the first two before he was traded. The Blues are now near flawless. They have point producers, an outstanding defense and now they have great goaltending. The Blues’ players are likely going to put forth one of their most inspired efforts of the season in support of this move and in support of their new goaltender.

Phoenix is average in every way. That is, they have average goaltending, average defense and an average assembly of forwards. Actually, an average defense may be a bit of a stretch, as Phoenix ranks 21st in goals against per game. That’s not particularly good and with similar numbers last season, it’s no surprise that the Coyotes missed the playoffs. This year they are going to miss them again. The Coyotes are 0-2 after the break and they are also 1-4 over their last five games. Losing takes its toll and the Coyotes season is getting away on them in a hurry. Phoenix is now eight points behind the Wild with 22 games remaining and fan interest is dwindling away. The friendly confines of Jobbing.com Arena is about the least intimidating building in the league and the Blue Notes are way overdue for a big game. Expect to see that here.

Pass NBA & CBB

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Harry Bondi

MARQUETTE (+10.5) over Villanova

Another FREE WINNER here on Saturday with Kansas State runs our record to 6-1 on our last seven! Today, we cash in again with a big dog. Not only is Marquette 30-15 ATS when revenging a home loss in the same season, but they are also a scrappy team that is playing for its Big Dance life and a win here would likely punch their ticket. Meanwhile, Villanova is already heading to the NCAA Tourney and has no realistic chance of a No. 1 seed, so look for the Wildcats to just try to win and survive today, not push the pedal to the metal, especially since this is not even being played on their regular home floor at The Pavilion. In the first meeting between these teams this year Marquette shot just 18% from 3-point land and still extended the Wildcats to OT. Look for a much better shooting effort here today and another tight outcome. Take the generous points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Wunderdog

New York at Chicago
Pick: New York +7

New York is a big dog after a pair of step-up stinkers, but does a bad Chicago offense deserve to be this big a favorite over anyone other than the 76ers?  The Knicks are 13th in the NBA in points allowed, despite giving up over 100 the last two (against Miami and Golden State, back to back). They face a Chicago team that is 13-27 ATS in their last 40 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is home from a trip to Dallas, and has played 10 of the last 15 on the road. You don't find Chicago a big favorite that often, and it's tough to back a team ranked 30th in the NBA in scoring as big chalk. They were eight point favorites here over the Lakers and won 102-100. And when these rivals meet, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Play the New York Knicks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Brian Edwards

Georgia Tech at Florida State
Play: Georgia Tech +9.5

I made Florida State a six-point home favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Georgia Tech – 3.5 points off of the current market number. Brian Gregory's team has covered the number in five consecutive road games, including Wednesday's 65-62 loss at Notre Dame as a seven-point underdog. The Yellow Jackets raced out to a double-digit lead early in the first half and although they couldn't get the outright victory at the Joyce Center, they comfortably hooked up their backers. If you scan GT’s recent results, you'll notice a rough four-game home stretch that preceded the team's trip to South Bend. However, I'm of the opinion that those outcomes (three defeats and only one win) should mostly be ignored because leading scorer Trae Golden wasn't healthy at that time. Golden sat out one game and played limited minutes in two others due to a groin injury. Golden averages team-highs in scoring (12.6 points per game) and assists (3.1 APG). FSU is mired in a 3-8 ATS slump and has lost seven of its last 11 games outright. Being at home hasn't made much of a difference for the Seminoles, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Tallahassee. The only spread cover during this stretch came against the ACC's worst team, Virginia Tech. FSU is off a strong performance in a win at Pitt last Sunday as an underdog. But as usual, Hamilton fields a defensive-minded squad, and that's not the type of team you want to support as big chalk (2-4 ATS L6 as favs). FSU has more to play for due to its “bubble status” but urgency doesn't always translate into success. When a team like is playing out the rest of the regular season with little chance of getting to the postseason, I'm always of the mindset that that team is better served by playing on the road. Instead of playing in front of a small crowd at home, the Yellow Jackets can feed off the energy of FSU's fans that should be into it with so much at stake. The biggest key however is this inflated number which puts us on the road dog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

John Ryan

Ohio State at Indiana
Play: Ohio State

The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game by 5 or more points. OSU has a very strong defensive presence ranking fifth in the nation in scoring defense. Making matters worse for a Hoosier offense that ranks 98th in scoring offense is that they rank a miserable 282nd getting just 11.0 assists-per-game. The OSU defense is great at filling passing lanes and rotating defense against strong passing teams. The Hoosiers will have far too many isolation situations with the shock clock winding down leading to forced shots. I strongly believe that the Hoosiers may have one of the worst shooting games of their season. SIM projects that Indiana will shoot less than 37% from beyond the arc. In past games, they are a money burning 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Ohio State.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Michael Alexander

UTEP vs. North Texas    
Play: UTEP -4½

The Texas-El Paso Miners are ranked 48 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 46.6% while attempting 49.7 shots per game. The Miners shooting percentages include 69.2% for free throw percentage and 33.4% for three point percentage so far this season. he Texas-El Paso Miners are 6-2 while on the road this season and 10-4 against conference opponents.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

AC Dinero

East Carolina vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall -3

Hard to believe a 9-20 team is actually favored over a team that has won 3 in a row. SO we'll back them, as this line seems fishy to me. They are actually kind of similar statistically, so stay at home with Marshall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

Yes, Philadelphia is a bad team that is currently on a thirteen game losing streak, but there is incredible value in this line. The Magic should not be favored by double digits against anyone in the league in my opinion. Yes, the did just beat the Sixers by 11 points in Philadelphia, but Philly led for the majority of that game before a great fourth quarter by the Magic. I really like the Sixers chances to end the losing streak today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Chip Chirimbes

Ohio St. at Indiana
Play: Indiana +2.5

Ohio State has had their way in this series of late winning eight of the last 10 meetings and are playing a club that will most likely end up in the NIT. The Buckeyes already defeated the Hoosiers one this season but face Michigan State next. The Buckeyes have clinched a Big Ten tournament bye and can get caught looking ahead here.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Dr. Bob

Opinion – TORONTO (+2) over Golden State

Toronto is 25-13 straight up and 26-11-1 ATS since trading away Rudy Gay, who is playing well in Sacramento but was horrible with the Raptors. Toronto is an underrated team and they catch Golden State after a big win in New York. The Warriors haven’t been as good after a win (51-58-2 ATS) as they have been after a loss (63-42-1 ATS) under coach Mark Jackson and my ratings favor Toronto by ½ a point and the Warriors are 1.9 points worse after a win than they are overall this season. I’ll lean with Toronto plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Dave MathewsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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George Mason at George WashingtonFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: George Mason +10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This should be a great rivalry in the Atlantic Ten as these two teams are within miles of one another. George Mason lost to GW in the first game by six on Jan. 25. Since then, the Patriots have covered five of the last seven. Mason beat Richmond by nine at home and lost to the top team in the league (St. Louis) at home in overtime. Byron Allen and Sherrod Wright are an excellent backcourt that can keep the Patriots in this game.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Carlos Salazar

Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -8.5

The Suns roll in this game Sunday night against the Hawks. Look for Atlanta to give up many easy points against the more athletic Phoenix team. Suns win by at least 15.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

River City SharpsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Canisius +5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Manhattan had their "Game of the Year" Friday night as the Jaspers hosted league-leader Iona and came away with a 3-point OT win. Of course, we know that because we had a nice play teed up on Manhattan -3.5 and they proceeded to miss 2 FT's with 2 seconds remaining in OT, either of which going down would have been a nice 3U win for our clients. But we're not bitter...HA! We think you have a letdown spot today for the Jaspers against a pretty good Canisius ball club catching 5.5 points. Jim Baron is a really quality coach and has done a nice job bringing Canisius back to relevance in the MAAC as they enter the game today at 20-10 overall, 14-5 in conference play. With the Griffs, you are also getting a team that has gone 11-7 on the road and an impressive 11-4 ATS in those games. There is also a bit of a revenge factor here as these two teams played on February 7th and Manhattan came away with a 84-73 win. Canisius is 10-2 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons, which is the situation here today in New York. We REALLY LIKE this play today and will gladly take the points in a game where it may very well come down to the last possession.

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OC Dooley

Sixers / Magic Under 214

Following last night’s home loss where the franchise honored former star Allen Iverson who drew a home sellout crowd, reeling Philadelphia has reached the absolute low point in what is now a nasty 0-13 skid which is the worst for the franchise in seventeen full years.  Last night the Sixers allowed 122 points and set an all-time arena record of 74 big ones scored against them in the opening half alone.  During the thirteen game losing skid the Sixers defense has permitted on average a scary 116 points per pop.  In addition the team has permitted 101+ points in 24 of the past 26 games.  Just yesterday Orlando allowed Miami to hit 58% from the field in a 112-98 road loss.  These factors have caused inflation with this particular total which opened offshore at the 213-point mark, especially since these pair of woeful sides squared off earlier in the week at Philadelphia.  One of the keys to this particular pick surrounds the absence of Orlando guard Aaron Afflalo (illness) yesterday which has his status in question.  In three games before being sidelined Afflalo was averaging 25 points per contest and in an early December clash versus the Sixers which extended into double-overtime he had a 43 point effort.  Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (53-23 since 1996 with a total of 210+ points) which plays teams like Philadelphia off three consecutive defeats UNDER the total, when taking the court on a SUNDAY.  That system agrees with the following season-long statistic where Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER/ROAD when the posted total is 210+ points

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