Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

DAVE COKIN

BOWLING GREEN VS. AKRON
PLAY: BOWLING GREEN +7.5

Don’t look for any Bowling Green-Akron highlights on the Saturday night Sportscenter. But this looks to me to be a game that has a good chance to be close from start to finish.

The visiting Falcons are only 12-16 and have hardly been impressive. But with very few exceptions, their games all go right to the wire. Bowling Green has nine MAC losses. The average margin of defeat has been just six points, with only one by double digits. Same story with the six wins, average margin 5.4 and only one by double digits.

Akron has struggled lately with three straight losses, and the Zips have really had just one blowout win all season in conference play. They appeared en route to an easy win in the prior meeting at Bowling Green, but barely hung on for a two-point win despite leading the entire game.

Both teams have some personnel question marks as of now heading into this contest. The Falcons could be without Anthony Henderson, who is basically their only three-point marksman. That’s offset by the Zips possibly being minus Jake Kretzer and Reggie McManus, who are suffering from concussion symptoms and mono, respectively. I’m not terribly concerned about Henderson, to be honest. The Falcons beat Kent State without him last game, and they don’t really rely on the threes much regardless. But the two Akron guys are also the two top outside bombers on the team, and the Zips are much more reliant on the three. Advantage Bowling Green if they sit.

Akron has been kind of an enigma all season. It looked like the Zips might be in position to make a run at the MAC title, but that’s long gone now with the recent slump. This is not a team that would be classified as go with material right now. Bowling Green is mediocre, but almost always competitive. That makes them a team to consider when getting enough points.

Don’t discount the revenge motive here. The Falcons just missed in the first matchup and coming off a nice win, I expect them to be focused on getting even with the Zips tonight. The number is enticing enough to get a bet from me. I’ll take Bowling Green plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Doug Upstone

Houston vs. Temple    
Play: Houston +3

Temple has mailed it in this year looks like and Houston has won three of its last five, including an upset over Memphis in it's last time out. Houston may lack the talent and consistency to think they could make a deep run, but they do give you everything they have by playing hard on both ends of the floor. This team is stuck in a very solid conference and the big teams have exposed them for the most part. This will not be the case today and Houston should take advantage of the opportunity to go on the positive side of .500. Take the three points with the Cougars.

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Sports Wagers

VIRGINIA -3½ over Syracuse

We’ve been playing against the Orange practically all season and the main reason for doing so is that there is value playing against over-hyped and extremely popular teams that are ranked highly. Syracuse has been ranked as #1 for a good portion of the season and come into this game ranked #4. In February, the Orangemen went 6-2 straight up but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) and probably should have gone 0-8 against the spread after a miracle buzzer beater against Pitt and a one-point home cover against Clemson. Syracuse ranks 242nd in points per game, 168th in rebounding, 216th in assists, and 170th in field goal % and it now appears as though there are no more proverbial rabbits to be pulled out of their hats. The Orange used them all up.

Virginia is quietly one of the best teams in the country. There is no hype surrounding them whatsoever. The Cavaliers are not shown on TV every week and they have a coach that many of you reading this are likely not able to name. The media loves the Orange, their pedigree and their coach. Virginia is ranked #12 in the country after they reeled off its 12th straight win on Wednesday. They have also won 15 of its last 16. In five of those 12 wins, the Cavaliers held their opponents to 50 points or fewer five times and 53 points or fewer eight times. In those 15 wins, they held the opposition to 53 points or fewer 11 times. Virginia’s defense may just be the best in the nation, making this under-hyped squad one of the most undervalued, ranked teams we’ve seen in some time. Oh, in case you were wondering, Virginia’s Coach is Tony Bennett, who is not the longest running show in Vegas.


TEXAS A&M -1½ over Mississippi

Ole Miss is playing for nothing. They have two games left after this at Arkansas and at home against Vandy next Saturday to close out the regular season. Ole Miss is not going to the dance unless they win the SEC tournament but that’s unlikely. The Rebels had their chance with a string of games against Tennessee, Kentucky (twice), Florida and Georgia but lost them all. In fact, the Rebels do not have a signature win this entire season and they figure to be mentally down for this road contest. Aside from that, they are a garbage team that gives up a ton of offensive rebounds and that occurred when their intensity levels was high. The Rebels are getting way too much credit in this line because they are ahead of the Aggies in the standings.

Texas A&M is not going to the dance either and they don’t have a signature win on its résumé either. However, the Aggies have won four straight at home over Mississippi State by 20, LSU by 10, Alabama by 15 and Tennessee by three in OT. The Aggies are 15-2 at home and their defense is far superior to the Rebels’ defense. We like the direction of the Aggies and we also like this spot against what should be a disinterested visitor.


OKLAHOMA STATE -106 over Kansas

This is truly a great time of year to be fading overpriced teams because there are literally thousands of college basketball bettors that show up this time of year in an attempt to get familiar with who’s who before the big event at the end of this month. The #5 ranked Jayhawks are sure to get a big majority of those wagers today being a small dog against a Cowboys team that has dropped seven of their past nine games and is third last in the Big-12. How can they be favored over Kansas? Thing is, this isn’t the same Cowboys squad that lost seven in a row before winning their past two games. Incidentally, OSU is not going to get much credit for defeating TCU and Texas Tech because that pair is feeding under them at the bottom of the Big-12.

Oklahoma State was ranked as high as #8 before that string of losses but two of those losses occurred in OT and three more occurred in the final minute in which the Cowboys lost by six points or less. In the midst of all that, outstanding PG Marcus Smart was suspended and as a result Oklahoma State’s stock went tumbling. Smart has returned from his suspension with 33 points, 17 assists, 11 rebounds and 11 steals in those two aforementioned blowout wins. The Cowboys remain the selection committee's toughest evaluation due to the Marcus Smart suspension. The selection committee will likely disregard the three losses suffered without Smart if the Cowboys continue the solid play we've seen in the two games since his return. A win here, followed by one more win in its final two games and the committee will have a difficult time excluding the Cowboys. Oklahoma State nearly rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit in the first meeting between these two in Kansas, covering the spread in a two-point loss despite getting outshot 56% to 39% percent. They forced 19 Jayhawks turnovers and got the money despite a 3-for-14 shooting effort from Smart. There is new focus for the Cowboys while the Jayhawks are going to cruise to the finish line with games against Texas Tech and West Virginia to close out the regular season. Expect OSU’s intensity level to be about 10 times higher than the Jayhawks’ and that makes this undervalued team very playable in this favorable spot.

Pass NBA

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Sports Wagers

DALLAS -½ +129 over Tampa Bay

Regulation only. The Lightning have suddenly gone cold and for the first time this season they are facing some adversity. Martin St. Louis has not denied that he requested to be traded. The Bolts lost four of five before the break and they returned after the break with a 3-2 loss to the Predators. What’s disturbing about that loss is that they were outworked, they surrendered three power-play goals and they blew a 2-0 lead. The Bolts had Nashville goaltender Carl Hutton on the ropes with two early goals but stopped skating from the second period on. It’s one thing to lose but it’s quite another to blow a 2-0 lead to the Preds and to show a lack of effort after being off for 17 days.

Dallas is the complete opposite of Tampa in that they picked up after the break right where they left off before it with a convincing 4-1 victory over Carolina. Dallas has picked up points in nine of its last 10 games. Its only regulation loss over that span came against Colorado by a score of 4-3. The Stars have allowed one goal or less in regulation in five straight games and in eight of their past 10. The Stars are feeling it right now. Intelligent disciplinarian Lindy Ruff has this team playing with confidence and purpose with less turnovers, less time in their own zone while creating a slew of scoring chances. Hot versus cold gets the call here.


Calgary +120 over EDMONTON

Regulation only. Big rivalry game has the Oilers favored by a ridiculous margin over the Flames. Edmonton was supposed to be decent this year but the fact remains this is a team with no direction, a ton of flaws and very little heart. Edmonton’s defense, which includes the forwards, is a dumpster fire. Edmonton’s blue-line is loaded with guys that couldn’t crack the lineup of some AHL teams. Mark Fraser, Jeff Petry, Corey Potter, Anton Belov and Martin Marincin should all be in the minors. Their offense hardly gets a chance to play offense because they’re hemmed in their own zone the whole game. The forwards have no interest in helping out either. The Oliers offensive depth is an insult to wading pools everywhere and this team still employs a wounded animal like Ryan Smyth. But at least they’ve recently decided it’s important to have a goon or three in the lineup. Man, is this team bad.

Calgary is not as bad as advertised. They came off the break with a 2-0 loss to Los Angeles but they played a decent game, much like they do almost every night. What the Flames lack in talent they make up for in heart. They bring it every night, their work ethic is among the best in the game and it has begun to pay dividends. Calgary has picked up points in six of their past eight games. Prior to the break they defeated the Rangers 2-1 and the Sharks, 3-0. The Flames are not going to dazzle but what they will do is put forth an honest effort, play their tails off and continue to be a tough out the remainder of the way. Calgary is also going to win more games than the Oilers down the stretch because they want it more and they play with so much more discipline and desire. That should be on full display here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Ross Benjamin

San Diego State at Fresno State
Play: Fresno State +4

Fresno State continues to get no respect from the book. Granted they will be facing a nationally ranked team today, but this is a club that's won 7 of their last 8-games, and has covered 9-games in a row with 6 of those coming as an underdog. The Bulldogs just don't beat themselves as they've committed just 8 turnovers or less in each of their last 5-games. As a matter of fact Fresno has a +35 turnover differential over their last 8 contests. They're one of the most improved teams in the country since the beginning of the season, and certainly the most improved in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are coming off a 76-56 win over Boise State as a 3.0 point home underdog. San Diego State enters today's game having lost their last 2 road games at New Mexico by 14, and at Wyoming by 6.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Jack Jones

VCU -4½

The VCU Rams (21-7) host the Saint Louis Billikens (25-3) this Saturday in a match-up of what I believe are the two bets teams in the Atlantic 10. I look for the home team to prevail with room to spare as the Rams continue their home dominance.

Indeed, VCU is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.8 points per game in the process. Saint Louis is 12-1 in conference play and has essentially all but clinched the Atlantic-10 Title, and thus it could find it hard to be motivated for the rest of the regular season.

VCU has every reason to be motivated in this one. It will be out for revenge from a 62-64 loss at Saint Louis on February 15 just two weeks ago. In fact, that was the third straight loss for the Rams in this series, though none of those three came at home. It's payback time for VCU tonight folks.

Saint Louis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game this season. The Billikens are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games after a game where they made 20% of their 3-point shots or worse. VCU is 11-3 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons. Better yet, the Rams are 26-7 ATS in their last 33 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or fewer. The Billikens are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet VCU Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

River City Sharps

St. Joseph's +3

Interesting matchup in the A10 here today with St. Joe's travelling to St. Bonaventure. The Hawks are really playing good basketball lately, as evidenced by their 26-point beatdown of Dayton on Tuesday night. Phil Martelli is a really good coach and likes this bunch of Hawks as they have won five straight games. The Bonnies have dropped two straight games and are sitting at 16-12 on the season, while the Hawks enter the game at 20-7. One reason to like the Hawks today is their proficiency on the road. St. Joe's has gone 9-4 away from home and are 7-4 against the number in those games. The Hawks are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the conference, shooting 39% from behind the arc as a team. St. Joe's is 9-3 ATS vs. St. Bonaventure going back to 1997 and we think they continue that mastery today as they try and solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

I have something wrong with my PC today, for some reason I can't open Firefox which has all my bookmarks for free plays so till I fix PC I won't have all the usual ones.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Will Rogers

Cleveland vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Looking to Bounce Back - Both teams played last night.  Cleveland won at home over Utah (99-79) while Memphis lost on the road to a desperate Oklahoma City team 113-107.  The Grizzlies should be the more desperate of the two teams tonight.

2. Revenge - The Grizz should also be the more motivated side as they have revenge from a surprising 91-83 loss (as 3-point favorites) in Cleveland last month.  That game was part of a six-game win streak for the Cavs at the time, but of their last eight victories, six have come against teams with losing records.

3. X-Factor - Memphis has won four in a row at home and 17 of 23 games overall.  Defensively, this one is a mismatch as the Grizzlies allow just 94.9 PPG compared to 104.4 on the road for Cleveland.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Harry Bondi

KANSAS STATE (-1) over Iowa State

We have won five of our last six free selections and look to stay hot tonight with one of the best defensive teams in college basketball. Kansas State's calling card is defense as they have allowed only 64 points per game in the high flying Big 12 Conference and have limited 14 opponents to 60 or fewer points. That is how you beat Iowa State as the Cyclones are one of the best offensive teams in the nation averaging 84 points per game but play very little defense. If you can limit Iowa State offensively you will win the game and that is what we expect the Wildcats to do tonight. Trends are with us as well as Cyclones big offensive numbers have them overrated by the oddsmaker and the public who loves to back offense. Iowa State is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games while Kansas State remains one of the best home teams in the country going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Wildcats crush Cyclones!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Tom Stryker

West Virginia -15½

Off three consecutive blowout losses to Texas, Baylor and Iowa State, West Virginia will take its frustrations out on this soft TCU bunch. The Mountaineers own a 15-13 SU record this year and, with games against Oklahoma (away) and Kansas to close, WVU better knock off the Horned Frogs or it will be in danger of finishing the 2013-14 season below the .500-mark.

Under the direction of head coach Bob Huggins, West Virginia has been lights out inside WVU Coliseum (75-25 SU). The Mountaineers are averaging 77.6 points per game and holding their opponent to just 62.4 points per game. That's a victory margin of 15.2 points per game for those of you without a calculator. Equally impressive, as a home favorite priced at -7 or more, WVU owns a respectable 75-51-1 ATS mark including a sweet 45-26-1 ATS in this set coming off a conference game.

Currently on a disturbing 0-15 SU and 6-9 ATS run, TCU is struggling in the worst way. In their seven Big 12 road games, the Horned Frogs have lost by an average of 18.4 points per game. There are a few other trends that work against the Toads. As a guest battling an opponent that scoots in off a straight up loss, TCU owns a weak 26-37-2 ATS record. In this role checking in off a straight up loss, the Horned Frogs are a dismal 8-25 SU and 9-20-1 ATS including 5-16 ATS in this set priced as a pup of +18 or less.

Coach Huggins can't be happy about losing three straight by an average of 15.7 points per game. At home, in a gym where blowouts happen often, the Mountaineers will show no mercy against the Horned Frogs. Take West Virginia.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Patrick Webb

Northwestern vs. Nebraska   
Play: Nebraska -8

The Huskers are coming off a rough performance at Illinois, scoring only 49 points and were dominated at the foul line and on the glass. Northwestern has dropped their last five games and failed to cover in each of those games. The Wildcats are in trouble in this game as they have lost 6'5 senior JerShon Cobb for the season and will struggle without him on both ends of the floor. Northwestern doesn't have the depth to overcome his loss and are facing a Nebraska team that has been excellent at home (13-1 S.U., 11-2 ATS) and would have to have a season high in three point shooting to stay in this game.

Nebraska wants to play at a much higher pace compared to Northwestern and will likely be able to force the tempo with a huge edge on the defensive glass and their ability to force turnovers. Nebraska should have an edge at the foul line and from behind the arc. Northwestern lost at home by 4 despite neutralizing Nebraska on the glass and in turnovers, it is unlikely they will repeat that performance at Nebraska.

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Tom Grassi

St. Joe's vs. St Bonaventure   
Play: St Bonaventure -2

This Atlantic 10 throwdown has the road team striving to keep its second place spot in the conference, while the home squad continues to struggle to reach .500 in A-10 play. The last time these two teams met was 13 months ago in Philadelphia, when St. Bonaventure stunned the Hawks win a nine-point as an 8.5-point underdog.

St. Joseph’s comes into this game having won 16 of their last 19 straight up, with covers in seven of their last eight. In contrast, the Bonnies have struggled with just three wins in the last seven, while beating the spread just twice.

Still, the Bonnies have had a strong home court advantage over the past few years, and that advantage tends to work best when they’re facing a strong road team. Under the latter circumstances, St. Bonaventure have a 14-2-1 situation in their favor when playing a team with a winning road record.

The early money on this contest doesn’t lean toward those numbers, choosing instead to go with the Hawks at an 80 percent rate. However, the fact that the line hasn’t budged is a tipoff that the Sharps have their money on the Bonnies, and we’re always ready to jump aboard that type of bandwagon, so lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Alex Smart

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State   
Play: Kansas -1

After clinching a share of the Big 12 title Monday, Kansas can now wrap up the championship outright with another victory today against Oklahoma State .KU has had success in their series in the recent past as is evident by having won six of seven against the Cowboys. However, the Cowboys (18-10, 6-9 Big 12) are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives against No. 5 Kansas, which means their backs are up against the proverbial wall. I like backing desperate sides in college hoops because I know they will be ready to play. But the truth is Oklahoma State has not shown a big propensity to play up to expectations this season, even with Marcus Smart in the lineup. The Boyz are a fine team, but after suffering through a 7 game losing streak, Im not sure these young men can just turn on switch that makes them significantly better than a side like KU, that could easily reach the Sweet 16.

Final notes & Key Trends: Cowboys are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Cowboys are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.Jayhawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Steve Janus

Auburn Tigers +5½

Auburn won the first meeting on their home court 74-55 back on Jan. 30 and like the value here getting 5.5-points. While the Tigers are just 1-8 on the road this season, they are the team with a lot more to play for. While Auburn won't be making the NCAA Tournament, they are still in the mix for a postseason invite. Alabama on the other hand is 11-17 and really have nothing to look forward to outside of Tuesday's road game against highly ranked Kentucky.

Auburn comes in off a 83-67 home win over South Carolina and are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a home conference win. Alabama on the other hand is a mere 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after playing their last contest on the road and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 1

Sean Higgs

San Diego State vs. Fresno State   
Play: Fresno State +4½

Safe to say that the Bulldogs will be pumped for this game vs a highly ranked conference team. Fresno comes in having covered 5 of the last 7 in the series and have are on a perfect 9-0 ATS run overall. Let's take the points with this live dog here. FRESNO STATE to get us the outright win tonight $

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John Ryan

Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning

The simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will get the road upset win here. For those new to this p[art of service, I have stated I would provide all top rated 10* Titans free of charge here at Vegas Experts. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 70-38 for 65% winners using the money line and has made 38 units/unit wagered since 2008. It has averaged a +110 dog play over that time frame and is a very strong 8-1 making 8 units/unit wagered this NHL season. Play against home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (DALLAS) after having won 2 of their last 3 games and is a well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days. SIM projects that Dallas will be held to 2 or fewer goals. In past matches, TB is a solid 28-7 making 22.4 units/unit wagered this season, 50-9 making 44 units/unit wagered the past three seasons when allowing 2 or fewer goals. Take Tampa Bay.

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Larry Ness

Syracuse at Virginia
Play: Syracuse

Virginia (24-5, 15-1) has won 12 straight overall and a school-record 17 in a row at home against conference competition. The Cavs own the top spot in but 13-2 Syracuse can draw within a half-game of the ACC's No. 1 seed in the upcoming tourney with a win in Charlottesville late this afternoon. Since its the LONE meeting between the two schools this season, the implications are HUGE! The fourth-ranked Orange trail the Cavaliers by 1 1/2 games for first place and control their own destiny should they win their final three contests, beginning here in Charlottesville.

Virginia's 14,953-seat arena has been sold out for several months. The Cavaliers' style of play features coach Tony Bennett's trademark defense, which allows 54.7 PPG, the stingiest unit in the nation. Syracuse opened the season 25-0 but last week, lost TWICE (home to BC in a shocking upset and at Duke), becoming the first No. 1-ranked team to lose twice in the same week since Texas did so in 2010.

The Orange almost blew a 12-point lead this past Monday in the final six minutes but ended their two-game slide with a 57-55 win at Maryland. The 6-8 Fair was Syracuse's best player last year and he is again, averaging 16.5 & 6.1. Grant (12.3-6.9) joins him up front replacing Southerland while the backcourt duo of Triche and Crater-Williams has been effectively replaced by sophomore Cooney (12.8) and freshman Ennis (12.0-3.5-5.5).

I still can't quite figure out UVa. The Cavs were led by guard Harris and the 6-8 Mitchell last year but both players have seen their numbers fall off dramatically, while the team has flourished. Harris is down from 16.3 PPG to 11.5, while after averaging 13.1 & 8.9 LY, Mitchell averages 7.0 & 6.9 TY! However, Virginia owns a deep group on both the perimeter and up front.

Joining Harris are Brogdon (12.4-5.7), Anderson (8.8) and Perrantes (4.8-3.7 APG) while the 6-8 Gill (7.9-3.9) and the 6-11 Tobey (6.7-4.0) join Mitchell up front. can this group win here and claim the ACC title outright? History notes that the Cavaliers have only won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship outright just ONCE in their history, and that it was 33 years ago in the 1980-81 season. Can you say Ralph Sampson?

Yes, Virginia owns 17 straight home conference wins but hasn't faced a team of Syracuse's caliber since hosting then-No. 3 Duke last Feb 28. In fact, the Blue Devils are the ONLY ranked team the Cavaliers have beaten during their home winning streak. Give me the points!

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Marc Lawrence

Kansas at Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State +1

February has not been a fun month for the Orange-and-Black. After losing in late January to arch-rival Oklahoma, the Cowboys proceeded to extend the losing skid to seven games, with the final three being the contests that Marcus Smart had to sit out following his fan-shoving incident. The feeling here is that Smart’s little hiatus will help the Cowboys in the long run as G Phil Forte filled in well, coming into his own with a game-high 20-point effort in OSU’s 84-62 trouncing of Texas Tech when Smart returned to the team. After the Pokes finally got off the schneid, they followed it up with a second 22-point win over TCU as Forte tossed in another 23. So now with the heat turned up a notch against Big 12 leader Kansas, we’ll find out if Okie State is back. Travis Ford is 27-8 SU and 21-14 ATS at home in conference games with revenge, and the Cowboys are 14-6-2 ATS with revenge in this series. After listening to Bruce Weber whine about teams taking advantage of extended layoffs before playing his squad, we’re pretty sure he would find it surprising to learn that Kansas is just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games as road favorites, including 1-7 ATS with 3 or more days of rest. We’re not surprised, though… at least not since we heard from our trusty database and it informed us that the Cowboys have been home dogs with conference revenge only three times since 1990 versus sub .820 opponents. FYI: they won all three of those games in straight-up fashion. The Jayhawks clinched a share of their 10th straight Big 12 title with a seesaw victory over Oklahoma on Monday night… now it’s time for a bit of a letdown. Back the hungry home dog tonight.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Tennessee/ Vanderbilt Under 126:  Just don't see this as a high scoring game and recent history between these teams agrees with me. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 meetings in Tennessee and the Under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these teams overall. The series is on an 7-0 Under run and just 118 ppg have been scored over that stretch. Both teams come in playing solid defense as Vandy has allowed just 60.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while Tennessee has allowed just 65.2 ppg in their last 5 games and 62.5 ppg at home. The Vandy offense has not been that good of late, averaging just 60.2 ppg in their last 5 games, or on the road where they average 64.1 ppg. Tennessee scores 75.5 ppg at home, but in their last 2 home games vs good defensive teams (Georgia and Florida) they were able to score just 62.5 ppg. The Vols have scored 67 ppg in their last 5 games, but on just 42.8% shooting. Neither team i good from long range and both are below average at the FT line and couple that with a slow paced game vs two good defensive teams and we should get a game that will struggle to reach 120 points. 

Eastern Michigan/ Northern Illinois Under 113:When these two teams hook up some ugly low scoring games are played and i expect this one to be no different. Just one of the last 7 games in this series put up more than 107 points and that was an OT game the teams played this year in which 94 points were scored in regulation. Just one of the last 7 games have scored more than 100 points in regulation and those 7 games have averaged just 90.6 ppg. That is a 23 point difference from today's total. Both teams are not worried about scoring points and both teams really slow the pace and rely on their defenses to win game. NIU has averaged just 58.2. ppg on the road and they have scored more than 47 points (regulation) just once the last 7 in the series, while EMU allows 58.2 ppg at home. EMU shoots just 41.4% at home, while NIU allows just 42.4% shooting on the road. Both teams shoot under 29% from long range and both teams hit less than 67.6% of their free throws. This should again be another low scoring ugly game and that's just the kind of game I love. This one has 57-47 written all over it.

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