Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Golden State at Detroit
The Warriors come into tonight's contest with Detroit carrying a 14-3-1 ATS record in their last 18 Monday games. Golden State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2 1/2)

Game 701-702: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.908 Philadelphia 103.827
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Under

Game 703-704: Dallas at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.113; New York 115.709
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Over

Game 705-706: Golden State at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Detroit 118.001
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: LA Clippers at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.683; New Orleans 118.821
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Boston at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.394; Utah 114.545
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+3); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Syracuse at Maryland
The Orange look to snap their two-game losing streak and come into Maryland tonight with a 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Syracuse is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-3 1/2)

Game 711-712: Syracuse at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 73.187; Maryland 67.202
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 6
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-3 1/2)

Game 713-714: Oklahoma State at TCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.363; TCU 54.183
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-11 1/2)

Game 715-716: Oklahoma at Kansas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 66.153; Kansas 81.277
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 15
Vegas Line: Kansas by 11
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-11)

Game 717-718: Samford at The Citadel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.300; The Citadel 38.152
Dunkel Line: Samford by 7
Vegas Line: Samford by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (-3 1/2)

Game 719-720: Portland State at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 45.425; Eastern Washington 56.741
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 7
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (-7)

Game 721-722: Elon at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 51.468; Furman 41.685
Dunkel Line: Elon by 10
Vegas Line: Elon by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (-7 1/2)

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Will Rogers

Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Milwaukee

You really can't do any worse than this matchup in NBA with the Bucks visiting the Sixers. Yet, Will Rogers feels this one offers decent value & here's a free play:

"The Coach" has had a profitable February so far (+$3,460), he's 288-229 +$23,907 over the past 90 days.

1. More Momentum - The Sixers are in a terrible way.  They've lost 10 in a row, seven of them by double digits.  They just traded away their leading scorer (Evan Turner) and leading rebounder (Spencer Hawes). Despite losing 21 of its last 24 games, Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS its last 10. They're the one getting points.  This is almost a matchup where you just want to play against whomever's favored.

2.  Philly Defense - No team allows more points per game then the Sixers (110.7 pts/game). Predictably, they've been even worse during the 10-game losing streak, giving up 116.1 pts/game.  Their last game saw them allow Dallas to shoot 62.3 percent - for the game!

3.  X-Factor - The Sixers have only been favored four times previously this year.  They lost the last time, earlier in this month, at home against the Lakers.  They lost outright by 14 points.

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Bryan Power

L.A. Clippers vs. New Orleans
Pick: L.A. Clippers

Though the Clippers are coming off a huge win Sunday over the Thunder (I had them as five-points dogs), but they should have more than enough left in the tank to get by struggling New Orleans by a significant margin.  Lay the points....

The Clippers went into Oklahoma City Sunday afternoon and won 125-117. They led by as many as 15 points after scoring 44 points in the second quarter and had 27 fast break points at halftime. It was the highest offensive efficiency allowed by the Thunder all season.  Jordan Crawford has done an excellent job so far starting in place of injured guard J.J. Redick.

New Orleans is not play well at all right now.  They lost at the buzzer Saturday in Washington which was their fifth loss in six games.  The only win during that time came against Milwaukee.  This is a team that has simply lost too many games to injury.  They have lost six of the last seven times they have played the Clippers.  That includes December's 13-point loss.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Ben Burns

Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks
Pick: New York Knicks +4½

The Knicks ran out of gas towards the end of their recent road trip. They’re back home now though and I feel they’re providing us with some value.

The Knicks have played the Mavs tough of late. Listed as 6.5 point underdogs, they won outright by 12 points at Dallas on 1/5. Last season, the Knicks lost by only three at Dallas while winning by 10 here at MSG. The previous season, they beat the Mavs by seven here.

Off back-to-back losses, the Knicks should be pretty hungry here. Note that they're 11-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, after playing their previous three games on the road.

Having already won the first two legs of their current 3-game trip, its possible that the Mavs could be a little complacent here. Either way, note that they're only 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

A look at the Knicks' last nine home games shows that only one of them resulted in a loss of greater than five points. (That was against Miami.) In other words, they've been very competitive at home in recent weeks. I expect them to give their best effort tonight and feel they've got a solid shot at earning at least a cover. Consider grabbing the points.

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Art Aronson

Portland State vs. Eastern Washington    
Play: Eastern Washington -7

Winners of three in a row and five of its’ last six, I expect the Eagles to take of business just fine here on Monday. Eastern Washington comes into this game with a strong 9-2 SU in home games and will be very motivated to take down a Portland State team that beat it in late January and has won the last two meetings versus the Eagles. Portland State got its’ stretch of three games on the road off on a nice note at Southern Utah, snapping a four game losing streak. We do have to take into account here that Southern Utah is worst team in the Big Sky conference this season. Also note that Portland State is 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS on the road this season. Eastern Washington covered the spread as a home favorite of 6-5-9 points this season. Eastern Washington is a hot 6-0 ATS in February this season and I expect it to continue here with a home win for revenge. The Eagles have outscored opponents by over 10 points per game on their home court this season. Consider laying the points.

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Nick Parsons

Boston vs. Utah
Play: Over 189

Rajon Rondo returns to the line-up for the visitors who will look to their super star to help them break a four-game slide. Most recently the C’s fell 105-98 to Sacramento on Saturday. Jeff Green was a bright spot finishing with 29 points; Kris Humphries had 19 points and grabbed eight boards.

A game vs. the Jazz is just what the doctor ordered for Boston to get off the schneid as Utah has lost three straight, giving up a ghastly 109.3 points in the process.

Most recently the Jazz fell 121-104 to Minnesota on Saturday. Center Enes Kanter would lead the way with 25 points.

Utah though will be just as desperate to break into the win column and will be playing with the confidence in knowing that it’s won six of ten home meetings vs. the East this year.

Note that Boston has seen the total fly above the posted number in ten of its last 18 after three or more consecutive SU losses.

And note that Utah has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven this year when playing the role of favorite and in 14 of 24 vs. teams with losing records.

Two hungry teams facing off, I believe we’ll see a faster paced contest and think the “over” is definitely worth a second look.

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Jim Feist

Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

Both of these clubs will not make the NBA postseason. The Celtics sit at 19-38 in the East and have lost four straight and six of their last 10 games. The Jazz are tied for the worst record in the West with the Lakers and Kings at 19-36. The Jazz have lost three straight and seven of their last 10. Still there are some shining moments for the Jazz, especially at home. Utah recently beat defending champ Miami, 94-89. Guard Trey Burke has been a big part of this club after missing games early in the season. Burke leads the team in assists (5.6 per game) while Gordon Hayward leads in scoring (16.0 ppg). I would like the Jazz a lot more here if the team's leading rebounder, Derrick Favors, would have been back from his hip injury. I don't believe the Jazz will need him here on Monday against the Celtics. Boston is 0-3 on this road trip, including losing at the Lakers by nine points, 101-92. That is significant since the Lakers haven't been beating anyone. The Jazz have been near .500 since December and playing much better. Have to favor the Jazz here who would be closer to a playoff spot playing in the East. The Jazz were playing good ball prior to the All Star Break, winning nine of 13 home contests. Add to this the fact that Boston will be playing their fourth game in six nights. Jazz will catch a tired Boston club here on Monday and even without Favors I look for an easy Utah win.

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Bruce Marshall

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

Just wondering if Philly's "techie" GM Sam Hinkie is still on the Miami Heat's Christmas card list after gifting Evan Turner to the Pacers in a trade deadline deal in exchange for damaged goods F Danny Granger. Maybe there is some logic in Hinkie's moves, but we're hard-pressed to find it. The only saving grace for the slumping Sixers is the presence of tonight's foe Milwaukee, but even the lowly Bucks have managed to split first two meetings with Philly. It also took Sixers OT to subdue Milwaukee by 8 at Wells Fargo Center on Nov. 22 when the now-departed Turner led Sixer scorers with 27 points.

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Rob Vinciletti

Elon vs. Furman
Play: Elon -7

Elon should roll here against a mediocre Furman Squad that has lost 24 of the last 25 vs winning teams, failing to the spread 19 of those 25 times. Furman is off a rare conference win and is just 2-13 straight up and ats off a league win. They shot over 50% in the win and are just 1-5 ats off a 50% or higher shooting performance. On Defense they allowed less than 40% and have failed to cover 3 of 4 this season in the next game. Elon has been solid all season and has won 7 straight. They have allowed less than 40% shooting from the field in 4 of the last 5 games. Look for them to get the win and cover here tonight.

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Dave Cokin

Oklahoma St vs. TCU
Play:Oklahoma St -11.5

The nightmare has finally concluded. Oklahoma State has its star back in action, and that disastrous 0-7 streak is history. The task for the Cowboys now is simple enough. They probably have to win out or at least come really close to doing so to make the NCAA Tournament.

The first hurdle comes tonight, and this is without question the easiest one. Oklahoma State takes on the softest Big 12 opponent possible as they visit TCU. The Horned Frogs are not good, which is obvious enough as they’re 0-14 in conference play.

I also think that if TCU hasn’t given up, they’ve at least got the white flag ready to be waved. Fact is, this team doesn’t have the talent to compete in a league this good, and they’ve been banged up most of the season as well.

There’s no bargain to be had here. Not many bettors are going to be eager to risk anything on the Frogs, and that’s reflected in the price. So if you’re hunting for value on tonight’s board, better to look someplace else.

My thoughts here are that the Cowboys are going to be a very determined entry as they try their best to play their way back into the Big Dance conversation. They might feel as though just winning is not enough, and that they need to bring some positive attention to themselves. If that’s the case, the number here won’t be in play. It’s chalk all the way in this one, Oklahoma State minus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Stephen Nover

Syracuse vs. Maryland    
Play: Maryland +5

One of the first things you learn when wagering sports is to respect the oddsmaker. This game opened at 3 and is being steamed up.

Don't you think the linesmaker knows Syracuse will be sky high for this matchup after consecutive losses, including a brutal loss two nights ago at Duke on a bogus charge call that caused a Jim Boeheim meltdown?

Of course the oddsmaker factored Syracuse motivation when making this number. Yes, the Orangemen are superior to Maryland, which probably is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight year.

But this isn't the jump-on-Syracuse-no-brainer some people think it is. The Orange and their coach are on tilt having dropped two straight after opening the season 25-0. Syracuse has not only fallen out of the top spot in the nation, but trails first-place Virginia in the ACC.

The Orangemen also are dealing with a late February fatigue factor due to Boeheim's season-long reluctance to use his bench. Boeheim hasn't used more than seven players during each of Syracuse's last four games. Now the Orangemen are playing in their second tough road venue in the last three days.

Boeheim's lack of confidence in his reserves is starting to take a toll on his team's jump shooting. Just look at Syracuse's backcourt. Shooting guard Trevor Cooney, who was leading the ACC in 3-pointers, has missed his last 12 of 15 shots from beyond the arc. Point guard Tyler Ennis missed 11 of 13 shots from the floor against Duke.

Maryland doesn't have Syracuse's talent, but the Terrapins are tough at home where they have won seven of their last eight. Their only home loss during this span was by four points to Pittsburgh, a team that should have defeated Syracuse 12 days ago.

Unlike Syracuse, which could still be pouting from its stinging loss at Duke, the Terrapins are rested and have had ample time to game plan for this matchup having last played six days ago.

Maryland desperately wants to make the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins lack a signature victory, though. They've come close losing by one to Connecticut on a neutral court and by two to Duke on the road.

Yes, it's understandable to believe Syracuse will crush Maryland because it is so mad and needs a stop-the-pain game. But is it realistic?

The Orangemen have been living dangerously all season. They should have lost earlier before losing to Boston College and Duke. They were on borrowed time. Now reality has hit.

This is a very tough situational spot for the Orangemen against a fired-up conference opponent in desperate need of a win, too. It's a spot I'd rather be taking inflated points with than laying.

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Jimmy Boyd

Bucks/Sixers Over 206

This is a low total considering how poorly these defenses have been playing recently. Milwaukee has allowed 103.6 points per game when playing on the road this season. That pales in comparison to the 111.3 points per game surrendered by Philadelphia. The Sixers look like they have completely given up on their season, allowing 117.8 points per game over their last five games. Philadelphia has given up a shooting percentage of 47.3 percent in home games this season. Even a team like Milwaukee should be able to score on the Sixers. The over is 12-3 this season when the Bucks are facing a poor defensive team that has allowed a shooting percentage of 46 percent or more.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system indicating this game should go over the total. The over is 161-96 (63%) when the total is 200 points or more and one team went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game and their opponent went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the scoring ability of the teams and overvalued their defensive capabilities.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Dennis Macklin

Syracuse/Maryland Under 131½

The Orange have lost two straight after opening the season 25-0. The problem in Syracuse's recent struggles has been scoring as the Boeheim's have scored 61 points or less in six straight games. The Under is 15-5 in the Orange's 20 lined games so it's not a surprise that the techs to the low in Syracuse games are gaudy in almost every situation. In fact, "The Cuse" techs are 13-5 south as favorites, 11-2 under in 13 ACC conference games 14-5 low vs winning records. Maryland has been ratcheting up its defense too and the Turtle is currently on a 5-1 "under" run. Thinking that this game will end closer to 110 than tonight's posted 130+ points. Play the Under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Patrick Webb

Oklahoma State vs. TCU    
Play:Oklahoma St -11½

OSU seems to be rounding back into form after destroying Texas Tech by 22 in Marcus Smart's return from his suspension. TCU has covered large margins in 5 of their last 7 games but will be without or have a limited Amric Fields who is their second leading scorer and is also second on the team in rebounds per game.

Oklahoma State is 5-2 ATS as a favorite from 10-14.5 points this season while TCU is 1-5 ATS in the same situation. TCU really struggles with rebounding margin and if Fields is out or limited that will likely be even a bigger issue. OSU is the superior offensive team and are scoring 1.07 points per possession in Big 12 games including the games Smart missed. TCU will struggle to stay in this game due to OSU's superior three point shooting, a likely solid free throw margin and second chance points

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Tom Grassi

Portland State vs. Eastern Washington    
Play: Eastern Washington -7

Eastern Washington’s Eagles enter this game having won five of their last six games, covering in each one, while Portland State has stumbled with four losses in their last five games.

The Vikings need to find a way to deal with two major issues that affect them in this game, the first being the fact that the favorite in this series has been totally dominant over the past six seasons. The other is the fact that they’ll never be declared road warriors, given the fact that their success against the pointspread away from home has been low over the previous two to three seasons.

The Eagles will certainly be focused on this game, since they have a score to settle with Portland State after the Vikings knocked them off by nine nearly a month ago. In that game, Eastern Washington held a good rebounding edge, but was done in by turnovers, something that they obviously need to avoid, or at least limit, tonight.

The early money was slightly in favor of Portland State, but such support hasn't pushed the line down any further. That suggests that the power of the Sharps trumps all, so we're happy to go along with such thinking, and suggest you lay the points.

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Michael Alexander

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks    
Play: Dallas Mavericks -3½

February has been kind to the Dallas Mavericks, who will look to improve to 8-2 this month when they visit the New York Knicks tonight. Dallas has won two straight and nine of its last 12 to establish a two-game cushion for the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot. After closing out January with four straight wins, the turn of the calendar has been disastrous for New York, which has lost two straight and eight of 10. Most recently, the Knicks have blown third quarter leads of 14 and 17 points to Orlando and Atlanta, respectively.

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Doug Upstone

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks    
Play: Dallas Mavericks -4

On Monday, Play Against a home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like New York, having lost three of their last four games and is in an exhausting scheduling spot of playing their fifth game in week. This situation is made worse coming home off a road trip of four or more games which is notoriously a bad spot and teams like the Knicks are just 23-63 ATS when situations arises.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 24

Jack Jones

Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -3

The Utah Jazz (19-36) should have no problem taking care of business against the Boston Celtics (19-38) at home tonight. I'll back them as a small home favorite in Salt Lake City, which remains one of the toughest places to play in the NBA today.

The Jazz have gone a respectable 12-16 at home this season, which includes a recent win over the defending champion Miami Heat about two weeks ago. Boston is just 8-21 on the road this season, and it has lost four straight games heading into this one.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the past five years. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the Jazz and Celtics. With Boston winning 97-87 at home in their first meeting of 2013-14, that places Utah in revenge mode tonight.

Utah is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after failing to cover three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 11-3 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season. The Jazz are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boston is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 road games versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Jazz Monday.

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SPORTS WAGERS

NEW YORK +137 over Dallas

The Knicks are coming off back-to-back losses to Orlando and Atlanta, two very winnable games that would have kept the Knicks within striking distance of the eight-seeded Hawks. Dallas is coming off back-to-back road victories over Detroit and Philadelphia to run its record to 8-2 over the past 10 games. One of the Mavericks’ losses over that span came against Miami right after the break. The game before the break, the Mavs defeated Indiana. Dallas is hot and popular again while the entire betting world is sick of ripping up their tickets after betting on New York. That sets up this buy-low, sell high opportunity.

The Mavs will play their third straight on the road and sixth road game in their past seven. They return home to face the Pelicans and Bulls beginning on Wednesday and then they’ll have another stretch of five road games out of their next seven. For an aging, jump-shooting team this stretch of games could mark the beginning of a downward spiral. Adding to that likelihood is this team's overall lack of defense. The Mavs currently allow the fifth-worst field goal percentage in the league at 46.3 percent and rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. This is exactly the type of squad the Knicks are very capable of defeating. New York went into Dallas back in early January and defeated the Mavs by 12 points. The Knicks should easily win the battle of the boards here and their defense is much better than the Mavs as well. The Mavs back-to-back victories over Philly and Detroit were not impressive, as they allowed 112 point and 103 points respectively and their awful defense figures to catch up to them. Dallas’ stock is way too high and we’ll look to take advantage beginning with this one.

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