Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Jeff Alexander

Orlando Magic +3.5

The Knicks have struggled on the road where they are 9-15 on the season. They won their last road game in New Orleans but had lost five straight away from MSG prior. One of these losses was against lowly Milwaukee. Orlando is 0-2 following the All-Star Break but both losses were on the road. The Magic have been far better at home where they are 5-1 in their last 6 with wins against Oklahoma City and Indiana. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Bet the Magic.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Doug Upstone

Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons    
Play: Detroit Pistons -3½

On Friday, Play On home favorites like Detroit after a loss by 10 points or more, against opponent after four straight losses by 10 points or more. The thinking is teams like Atlanta are just playing horribly and the Pistons coming off a bad loss themselves, are better positioned as a home favorite to win this contest. In the past 17 years this rare situation is 25-6 ATS.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Clippers -2

The Grizzlies may be back at full strength but I think they are getting a little too much respect in this one. This became a buying opportunity as soon as the Clippers lost their second half opener to San Antonio but the Grizz don’t have nearly the offensive efficiency of the Spurs. The Clippers are 17-11 ATS on the road this season and beat the Grizzlies by 20 in December, also on the road.I don’t think the return of Marc Gasol closes that gap that much.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

AC Dinero

Brown vs. Columbia
Play: Brown +7

Both teams come in off wins. Brown hasn't been shooting the ball well lately, so look for that to change. The Columbia defense has bben subpar ove rthe past 5 games. I really like the Brown defense, giving up only 39%. Even though we are backing a road team, I like the points with the better defensive and rebounding team

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Greg Shaker

Knicks / Magic Over 195

We are working the Saturday CBB Card pretty hard today and as usual Saturday should feature a good card for us. Because of that the thoughts on NBA will be very brief. So far two plays and that might be it. This is the 1st one with our number being 201.8 and based on a number of reasons, not limited by the fact that the Magic OE is much better here at this venue than when they travel and they do tend to pace up here as well. These teams have played to a lot of OVERS when they play here and with a Day's Rest we should see a number of possessions.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Nelly

Utah Jazz + over Portland Trailblazers

Portland is reeling a bit with a 3-7 record in the last 10 games including losing Wednesday to start the second half in a big game with the Spurs. That was a third consecutive loss and the Blazers have gone through a run of six prominent big games in a row. Next on the schedules is a game with the Timberwolves and this matchup with Utah could get overlooked. Utah is just 19-34 on the season but if you take away a 1-14 start the Jazz are a pretty respectable 18-20 in the last 38 games. Utah won the final three games before the break and they played very tight with Brooklyn on Wednesday to kick off the second half of the season. Utah has been a better ATS performer on the road this season and this is a steep spread for a Portland squad that is not playing its best right now. Portland is a losing ATS team at home this season and the defensive numbers are equally bad for both teams. Portland won by 32 hosting the Jazz in December but the more recent meeting was much closer in Salt Lake City and the Blazers are not likely to shoot 55 percent like they did in the first meeting of the season. In that game Portland shot 17-23 from 3-points range, something that won't likely ever happen again. This is a big spread for a struggling Blazers squad coming off a huge game earlier in the week with much bigger games ahead.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Joe Gavazzi

LA Clippers -1.5

We will be lining up with the Grizz on numerous occasions in the 2nd half of the season. They enter tonight's play on a 3 game winning streak to run the recent record to 20-7 SU, 17-10 ATS. With the return to health of Gasol and PG Conley, this is a play on team. Consider the defense which has allowed just 87 PPG L16 games. But, that profit will have to wait, as we are clearly on the Clippers tonight. Coming out of the break, LAC fell 113-103 at home to the Spurs. That sets up a situation that finds them to be among the most resilient teams in the NBA at 14-4 ATS/loss. With a road record of 15-7 ATS in competitively priced games of +6 to -6, the inverted home/road dichotomy favors them against a Memphis team who is 1-6 ATS on this floor of late. This game will have a playoff type atmosphere, as these teams have faced each other in post-season play each of the last two seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

River City Sharps

Mavericks / 76ers Under 213

Philly is obviously a mess right now as they are 15-40 on the season and have lost 9 straight games. They just dealt both Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes prior to the trade deadline and we're pretty sure Danny Granger got the worst of that deal. Either way, the 76ers are a complete mess and Dallas comes to town tonight off a loss to Miami where they allowed the Heat to shoot 57.1% from the field. We think that Dallas will put a renewed emphasis on the defensive side tonight against a team that struggled to make a lot of shots and goes into extended scoring droughts. Dallas gets the easy win tonight and we see this total at around 205, so we are going to side with the Under in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

OC Dooley

Celtics / Lakers Under 206

With a pair of proud franchises with 33 combined championship crowns won between them, it should come as no shock that ESPN chose tot televise this as the second-half of a Friday doubleheader.  However both are in the midst of dreadful campaigns including the Lakers whose lost a nationally-televised home tilt two nights ago in a game where Dwight Howard made his grand re-appearance in Los Angeles after turning down the franchise on a contract extension.  Los Angeles was humiliated in a 134-108 loss where the deplorable defense picked up a pattern that recently saw the team allowing at least 100 points in SIXTEEN consecutive outings.  But prior to the Wednesday debacle the Lakers had actually held 3 of 4 opponents to just “double digits” on the scoreboard.  With the help of that Wednesday debacle there has been serious inflation on tonight’s total which opened at most offshore locales down at the 203 point plateau.  To make a long story short the injury-ravaged Lakers have a new look after just trading popular guard Steve Blake which drew the ire of both Kobe Bryant and head coach Mike D’Antoni which described him as quote “the backbone”.  As for visiting Boston they are 8-3 UNDER the total in the past eleven outings.  Here is a 60-PERCENT SYSTEM (190-125 since 1996 with a high total of 200+ points) which takes terrible defenses like the Lakers who permit on average at least 103 points per contest UNDER the spot, following a blowout loss of 20+ points in margin

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Harry Bondi

PHOENIX (+1.5) over San Antonio

How does San Antonio keep doing it? Almost everybody on the roster is hurt, old or both, yet they keep winning. That comes to an end tonight against a young Suns team that has been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season. Suns have had this one circled after the Spurs won first two match-ups. Phoenix gets it's revenge tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

Dr. Bob

Manhattan (-6) over SIENA

Manhattan has played well since star George Beamon returned from injury and the Jaspers enter this game on a 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS streak that is likely to continue based on a 106-38-4 ATS road favorite momentum situation. My ratings favor Manhattan by 5.8 points using all game but by 7.1 points using only the games in which Beamon played and I’ll take Manhattan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.


Opinion – PHOENIX (+1½) over San Antonio

San Antonio is better with Manu Ginobili back, regardless of whether Tony Parker is playing or not, but the Spurs apply to a negative 65-125-3 ATS letdown situation based on their upset win over the Clippers. Unfortunately, my ratings favor San Antonio by 2.4 points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make this a Best Bet. I will lean with Phoenix plus the points, as the Suns are 19-10 ATS as underdogs this season and 13-2 ATS when rested and facing a team coming off a win.

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