Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 14

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 14

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Arizona at Arizona State
The Wildcats thumped the Sun Devils (91-68) at home on January 16 and now head to Tempe where Arizona State is 4-19 ATS in its last 23 games in a revenge game after a road loss to an opponent. Arizona is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)

Game 801-802: Pennsylvania at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 46.062; Yale 56.694
Dunkel Line: Yale by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 9
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-9)

Game 803-804: Harvard at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 61.561; Columbia 52.520
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 9
Vegas Line: Harvard by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-6 1/2)

Game 805-806: Dartmouth at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 49.687; Cornell 41.555
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 8
Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 3
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (-3)

Game 807-808: Princeton at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.234; Brown 51.304
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 6
Vegas Line: Princeton by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-2 1/2)

Game 809-810: Detroit at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 54.645; Oakland 53.087
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3)

Game 811-812: Arizona at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 75.309; Arizona State 67.091
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)

Game 813-814: Canisius at Niagara (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 55.096; Niagara 52.379
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 5
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+5)

Game 815-816: Monmouth at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 48.387; Iona 61.482
Dunkel Line: Iona by 13
Vegas Line: Iona by 15
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+15)

Game 817-818: Siena at Marist (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.748; Marist 56.076
Dunkel Line: Marist by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Marist by 4
Dunkel Pick: Marist (-4)

Game 819-820: Western Carolina at Chattanooga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.163; Chattanooga 50.256
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+2 1/2)

Game 823-824: SMU at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 71.195; Rutgers 57.749
Dunkel Line: SMU by 13 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: SMU by 8; 144
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-8); Over

Game 825-826: Louisville at Temple (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 78.225; Temple 57.627
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 20 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Louisville by 14; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-14); Over

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Czech Republic -2½ +111 over LatviaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game goes tonight at midnight. The Czechs fell behind 4-0 against the Swedes early in the second period but from that point on they were the better team. The Czechs got better as the game progressed and that should carry over to this game against an offensively challenged Latvia team. The Czechs seemed a bit out of sorts to start the game and it was quite a surprise not to see Ondrej Pavelec between the pipes but this team is too good to allow one loss to affect them. In fact, one has to admire the Czechs for not throwing in the towel after being down 4-0. They made a game of it. Make no mistake, the Czechs are a threat to win a medal, as they are able to stack three forward lines with first line, if not game-breaking NHL talent. Had they defeated the Swedes, this line would be -3½ and some juice. Their loss to the Swedes makes them very playable spotting 2½-pucks.
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Latvia lost their opener to Switzerland, 1-0 on a goal with 7.9 seconds left. Not scoring on the Swiss and allowing 38 shots on goal is only a small sample of what’s in store for Latvia in this game. Latvia has one NHL player, Zemgus Girgensons of the Buffalo Sabres. In Vancouver, Latvia took 19 minor penalties in three games, the most for any team in the tournament and against this vastly superior opponent on a bigger ice surface, expect more of the same here. Latvia goaltender Edgars Masaļskis is likely going to face between 50 and 60 shots on net here. If he beats us, so be it but Latvia cannot compete with the powers in this event and the Czechs are a power that is a definite threat to for a medal and we’re not talking about a Bronze. Cheap price on a Czech team that figure to go off for at least five goals.

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Sam Martin

Arizona at Arizona St.
Prediction: Arizona

Wildcats take on their in-state rival Arizona State on Friday night in a big rivalry game, and while we haven't been as high on Arizona as others have, we are going to back them here as we expect them to win easily against the Sun Devils. About a month ago Arizona lined up as a 14-point home favorite against Arizona State and covered that game easily, winning by 23 points in a 91-68 blowout victory.

ASU was out-shot 56% to 34% in that loss, and while we certainly don't expect Arizona State to lose this game by 20 or more points we also don't believe they can pull the outright upset or even take this game down to the wire. Sun Devils are just 2-10 against the number when revenging a road loss, and after losing by double-digits in the last three meetings of this series this one won't be close either!

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Jim Feist

Arizona at Arizona St
Pick: Under

A great Pac 12 rivalry game, where Arizona State has home court against their rival where they are 13-1. Arizona played Sunday at home to Oregon State (76-54 win), while Arizona State played Saturday at home to Oregon (74-72 win). Arizona just lost injured forward Brandon Ashley and the second-ranked Wildcats looked out of sorts on the offensive end, leaving them in jeopardy of their first losing streak of the season. The Wildcats went 4 for 16 from 3-point range, missing 16 free throws. The previous game they had their first loss, 60-58, at Cal as -6 favorite as Cal slowed the pace down. Arizona is on a 39-16-1 run under the total playing great defense for Sean Miller, plus 41-18-1 under the total following a win. Arizona State (18-6) is home from a two-game trip, topping uptempo Oregon Saturday (74-72). Jordan Bachynski had 26 points and blocked Joseph Young's reverse layup at the buzzer. The defense allowed just 36% shooting and the under is 11-1 against a team with a winning record, plus 38-17-3 under the total in the Sun Devils last 58 home games. Look for a fierce defensive effort by both teams in this rivalry game;

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Chase DiamondFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Carolina vs. ChattanoogaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Point Western Carolina +2½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game features the 14-11 WCU at the 16-11 Tenn Chat. Tenn. Chat is 10-1 at home but have lost 2 straight and WCU has been playing much better lately winning 2 straight games. The public is all over Tennessee here at a rate of 90% which is insane when you dig deep and look at the actual numbers of these two teams.


Chase Diamond's Featured Package

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DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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PENNSYLVANIA AT YALEFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY:PENNSYLVANIA +9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yale is riding high atop the Ivy League following last Saturday’s stunning upset at Harvard. The Bulldogs are actually tied with the Crimson at 5-1, but with that head to head win, they’re realistically the Brain Chain leaders at this point.
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Penn has managed to win three of its five league games, and they also got a sweep last weekend with wins over Cornell and Columbia. The Quakers are not very good, however, and the proof of that is their ugly 6-13 overall ledger.
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The key to this play is the spot. It’s very easy to see Yale being a little flat tonight. The Bulldogs are off the huge win against their rivals from Cambridge. They’re riding high in the Ivy penthouse, and they’re facing an opponent they handled comfortably in each of last year’s meetings. I think it’s also possible that in spite of Princeton being near the bottom of the league standings, the Tigers might be looked upon as the more challenging game for Yale this weekend.
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The dicey part of this deal is that I’m going to be asking what I believe is a pretty lousy team to do something good against a clearly superior opponent. But with Yale fitting a variety of scenarios that indicate they might not be at their sharpest tonight, I see Penn plus the points being worth the risk.

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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Princeton at BrownFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: BrownFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers figured that the 6-8 Ian Hummer (16.3-6.4-4.1) would be impossible to replace but Princeton shocked most Ivy observers with its pre-league mark of 12-2 (three-point loss at Butler and a 93-79 loss to Portland in Las Vegas). However, Princeton hit the skids in Ivy play, losing FOUR straight before beating hapless Cornell (1-19) 69-48 in its last outing.
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Mitch Henderson uses a seven-man rotation but 6-5 guard Bray (17.7-4.0-5.5) and the 6-9 Brase (12.1-6.4) aren't getting the help they need, at least since Ivy League play has begun. Brown checks in at 12-8 overall (4-2 in Ivy play) and has EIGHT players averaging between 6.6 and 18.1 PPG.
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The matchups are good here for the Bears, as neither guard McGonagill (18.1-4.2-3.4) nor the 6-9 Maia (10.2-8.5) will take a backseat to counterparts Bray and Brase. Brown won at this venue 80-67 last year and should prevail again tonight.

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Jimmy Boyd

Harvard -6½

Columbia has played well at home this season, but they have yet to face a team as talented as Harvard. The Crimson are 18-4 overall, and they have a 9-3 record in road games. They have been a great team to back against the spread posting a 6-3 ATS record on the road. I think the disparity in talent between these teams is closer to a double-digit margin so the Crimson should have no problem covering this spread.

Harvard's strength of schedule has been a lot more difficult than that of the Lions. That tells me that the 60.5 points per game surrendered by the Crimson is actually a lot better than it seems when compared to the 62 points per game allowed by Columbia. The same holds true on the offensive end of the court where Harvard averages 72.4 points per game and Columbia averages a mere 67.9 points per game.

The Lions do not play with a lot of pressure on defense and they are not a team that forces turnovers and gets steals. Harvard is 11-3 ATS in road games against teams averaging six or less steals per game. I think Harvard's poor shooting in their last two games has created a lot of value for today's matchup with Columbia. The Crimson have averaged 45.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent on three point attempts so I don't expect their shooting troubles to stick around for long.

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Dennis Macklin

Dartmouth vs. Cornell    
Play: Dartmouth -3

Be thankful that you are not in the electric chair with your reprieve riding on either of these two beauties. Cornell has won 18 of 21 in the series including 10 straight on this floor but ..... Big Red is 0-19 against Division I teams with their only win this year against Oberlin, a team that is just 6-16 in Division III. Dartmouth is missing it's big man and best player Gabas Maldunas but have shown some signs of life splitting its last four games granted all four were at home. If Big Green is ever going to get this series monkey off their back, it would be tonight and possibly worth a small flyer.

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LT ProfitsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Siena vs. MaristFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick:Marist -3.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marist Red Foxes are 9-16 overall, but that means that they are 9-7 since their 0-9 start and they are a very good 7-3 here at home, where their defense has held opponents to just 64.2 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting. Marist is third in the MAAC in defensive efficiency, thanks in large part to ranking 48th nationally in defensive turnover percentage at 20.7 percent vs. a national average of 18.6 percent. The Siena Saints have not played particularly well on the road going 3-8 while losing by an average of -6.2 points, and they susceptible to the Marist pressure as they are ranked a terrible 313th in offensive turnover percentage at 21.1 percent. Marist is also 188th nationally in defensive efficiency and it allows a bloated 75.7 points per game on the road. Siena is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
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Canisius vs. NiagaraFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Canisius -4FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canisius Golden Griffiths are still in the hunt for the MAAC title even though they are now fourth in the conference with 10-4 conference mark, but that still leaves them just 2½ games behind first place Iona. Thus, every game is big for the Golden Griffiths and they could ill afford to lose winnable games like this vs. the Niagara Purple Eagles, who are only 3-11 in MAAC play. Canisius should be able to run up the score here even on the road, as the Griffiths rank a very good 41st in the entire country in offensive efficiency and 52nd in effective field goal percentage at 52.8 percent, while Niagara is a poor 277th in defensive efficiency and hideous 333rd out of 351 Division I teams in effective field goal percentage allowed at a distressing 55.0 percent! Canisius is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. teams with losing home records.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pennsylvania vs. YaleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Can you say "letdown?"  That's what we have here as nine-point favorite Yale is off its biggest win of the year, as 12.5 pt dogs, where they handed rival Harvard their first Ivy League loss of the season, 74-67.
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I realize that the Bulldogs have had almost a full week to "come down" from the high of beating Harvard, but this is an overlay. For the first time all season, Penn has won back to back games.  Both came at home, the latest being at the expense of Columbia, 68-60 as two-point dogs Saturday. They shot 68.2 percent in the first half.  The road has been a different story for the Quakers this year, but fortunately they're taking a generous number against an opponent likely to overlook them.
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Yale has won four straight and six of seven. But every win but one came by 10 points or less.  I just can't see them matching the emotional high of beating Harvard here.  They caught a major break in that game w/ the Crimson missing 11 of 13 three-point attempts in the second half.

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Doug Upstone

Canisius vs. Niagara    
Play: Canisius -4

On Friday, Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Niagara, revenging a loss where the opponent (Canisius) scored 75 or more points, off a home loss by three points or less. How this has typically works is teams like Niagara do no let the last close loss go and their defense usually is not good enough overall which is why they are a home dog to begin with. This college basketball free play is 26-5, 83.9 percent playing against the home team catching points.

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David Banks

Arizona State +5

There is a nice intra-state matchup involving the second ranked team in the land on ESPN Friday when the once beaten Arizona Wildcats (23-1, 14-9 ATS) make the short trip to visit the Arizona State Sun Devils (18-6, 11-11 ATS) at Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe at 9:00 ET. The Wildcats have won two straight games since suffering their only defeat at California, but they could have their hands full vs. the Sun Devils, who are 13-1 here at home.

Arizona was cruising along at 21-0, but not only did the Wildcats lose their first game to the Golden Bears, but they also lost starting forward Brandon Ashley for the season with a torn ligament in his foot that required surgery. The Wildcats have not quite been the same since that injury just two minutes into the game at Cal, as besides going on to lose that contest, the Wildcats were then life and death to get by Oregon 67-65, and that was at home at the McKale Center where Arizona had usually been blowing teams out. The Cats did regroup to win easily 76-54 in their last game on Sunday, but that was vs. a mediocre Oregon State team that is currently ranked 93rd on the Pomeroy Ratings. To put that in perspective, the California team that beat Arizona is ranked 45th, the Oregon team that fell just short at Tucson is ranked 32nd and now this may be the Wildcats' stiffest test yet, visiting an Arizona State team ranked 33rd, and that is not to mention the great emotion the Sun Devils figure to bring to this rivalry game at home.

And emotion aside, the Sun Devils also appear to have the talent to potentially pull an upset! Granted, nobody is playing better defense than Arizona this season as the Wildcats lead the nation in both defensive efficiency and in effective field goal percentage allowed at 41.9 percent, but Arizona State is not chopped liver defensively either, ranking 25th in efficiency and 31st in effective field goal percentage allowed. Furthermore, the Sun Devils actually rank much higher than Arizona in effective field goal percentage offensively, as they rank 30th in the nation at 53.7 percent while the Wildcats are down in 90th at 51.6 percent. The Sun Devils do a lot of their damage from beyond the three-point arc, where they rank 19th at 39.4 percent, and that three-point percentage is at 40.1 percent here in Tempe. If the Sun Devils can shoot over the Wildcats with their typically good three-point shooting, then Arizona could be in serious danger of possibly losing its second game and dropping a bit in the rankings.

Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. teams with winning straight up records, 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win and 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams with winning road records. Also, the home teams are 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.

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River City SharpsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yale -8½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We obviously have a short Friday card tonight which is always the calm before the Saturday storm, but this is a game that we immediately liked when we saw the opening number. Yale is coming off their upset win over Harvard last weekend where they dominated the Crimson in a 74-67 win. They have won four in a row and are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Penn has struggled as they come into this game at 6-13, although they have won their last two games over Cornell and Columbia. What jumps off the page on Penn has been their complete ineptitude on the road this year. The Quakers are 1-8 away from home, 3-5 ATS. Their problem? How about the fact they are allowing teams to shoot over 42% from the 3-point-line in those games! Yale has been inconsistent this year from the perimeter, yet in their upset win over Harvard, they shot 52% from the field. Yale is 3-1 against the spread versus Penn over the last 3 seasons and in games against common opponents this year, Yale is a perfect 5-0, 3-1 ATS, while Penn is 2-3, 1-3 ATS in those same games. We think this is a really good spot for Yale tonight and we fully expect a double digit victory.

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Ian Cameron

Canisius at Niagara
Play: Canisius -4.5

We cashed in with a MAAC road favorite last night in Manhattan’s 86-69 blowout win over Rider and I think we have another rock solid opportunity tonight backing another road favorite with Canisius. Despite being one of the worst teams in the MAAC, Niagara has stepped up with two of its better efforts in their last two home games against conference powers Iona and Manhattan. Niagara lost those two games by a single point. Those were bitter defeats for the Purple Eagles who had opportunities but failed to get that key basket or defensive stop down the stretch to turn. This could be a tough situation for a full effort while the Golden Griffins are likely to be in a focused and intense mood after dropping two straight to Iona and Manhattan.

Canisius defeated Niagara in the previous meeting earlier this season 87-74. Niagara had no answers defensively for Billy Baron who piled up 31 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Niagara’s only real offensive threat, Antoine Mason, got his points in the previous meeting but the Griffins did a good job of keeping everyone else under wraps. Chris Manhertz who is Canisius leading rebounder won’t play due to a nose injury but Phil Valenti filled in well with 15 points and 9 rebounds against Iona.

Canisius has shown the ability to go on the road and win games by margin in the MAAC back-to-back double-digit wins and covers at Fairfield and Quinnipiac. I expect them to pick up another road victory by margin tonight.

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Wunderdog

Detroit at Oakland
Pick: Detroit +4

Detroit is just 4-9 on the road but they own a winning spread record. They face an Oakland team that is 8-3 at home but just 3-5 against the number here. In conference games, Oakland is just 4-7 straight-up and 3-8 ATS. In their last 18 home games vs. losing teams, the Golden Grizzlies are just 4-14 ATS. And, since Greg Kampe took over the reigns here, Oakland is just 15-26 ATS as a home favorite and 12-24 ATS vs. conference foes. Oakland shouldn't be laying points to anyone. Take the road team.

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Jeff Alexander

Monmouth +14½

Iona can't be trusted laying this many points as it is just 9-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997. That Gaels are also at a disadvantage in terms of fresh legs and preparation time as this will be their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are 2-9 ATS when playing 3 games in a week over the last 2 seasons. Iona is on a 4-13 ATS slide in home games after covers in 5 or 6 or their last 7 games and a 10-22 ATS slide in games after a close win by 3 points or less. The Gaels are also on a 1-9 ATS skid in home February games. Grab the points.

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Jack Jones

Arizona State +5½

The Arizona State Sun Devils (18-6) will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season. Nothing went right in their 68-91 loss at rival Arizona on January 16 as the Wildcats shot 55.7% from the field and 53.3% from 3-point range. I expect a role reversal tonight.

Arizona State has been simply sensational at home this season. It is 13-1 at home where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. It has won five straight Pac-12 home games, and five of its last six games overall, including an 89-78 win at California during this stretch. It's safe to say the Sun Devils are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

The same cannot be said for Arizona, which is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. This team has consistently been overvalued of late due to its 23-1 start. Oddsmakers have been underestimating the loss of third-leading scorer Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who was shooting 52.2% from the field and 37.9% from 3-point range before going down with a season-ending injury. This team isn't the same without him.

Arizona is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home win against a conference opponent. Arizona State is 11-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game over the past two seasons. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Sun Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Friday games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Arizona State Friday.

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Dave Price

Oakland -3

Oakland won 77-69 at Detroit last month, and I expect it to earn the season sweep tonight. Detroit has really struggled on the road where it is 2-7 in its last nine. Oakland, on the other hand, has been solid at home where it has won 8 of 11 this season. While the Titans will be looking for revenge, we can't ignore how poor of an investment they have been against struggling teams. They are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams that have a losing record and 20-41-3 ATS in their last 64 games versus team with a winning percentage below .400. They are just 3-11 ATS the last three seasons versus teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40%. Oakland has struggled on defense but won the first meeting despite allowing 50.9% shooting because it dominated the free throw battle, three-point battle and rebounding battle. I expect more of the same tonight. Besides, Detroit is 0-6 ATS in road games the last three seasons versus teams that allow their opponents to shoot 45% or better. It has lost these games by an average score of 77.8 to 68.5. Lastly, the Golden Grizzlies are 17-8 ATS under coach Kampe in games when the line is +3 to -3. Lay the points.

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Red Dog Sports

Monmouth vs. Iona
Play: Under 160

These two played just ten days ago at Monmouth and it ended with 160 points scored. Monmouth has seen 3 overs/8 unders in the 11 lined road games. Their games average 142 points while Iona's are at 162. Hopefully, we see just 154 to 159 points on Friday night and under.

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