Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Jimmy Boyd

Long Beach State -1½

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back during conference play this season. They have a 7-2 ATS record against Big West opponents, and they should easily improve on that number with a home court matchup tonight against UC-Santa Barbara. The 49ers are a much better team than their record would indicate. They have played four teams that were ranked at the time of play, and two more that would eventually move into the top 25 ranking. That tough schedule makes most of their Big West opponents look like a practice squad.

This is a revenge game for Long Beach State. They lost on the road against Santa Barbara last month, but they will have the luxury of playing host for tonight's matchup. The Gauchos have not played well on the road this season. They may have an 8-4 record in road games, but the competition has been soft. They are surrendering 68.2 points per game on the road against opponents averaging 69.7 points per game. Long Beach State on the other hand has allowed 66.1 points per game at home against a schedule where their opponents have an offensive scoring average over 72 points per game. The 49ers are the better team defensively, and that strong defensive play will lead them to victory on their home court tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Doug Upstone

Green Bay vs. Youngstown State    
Play: Youngstown State +2

On Thursday, Play On teams like Youngstown State when the line is +3 to -3, who are revenging a same season loss, off three or more consecutive road defeats. The reasoning for this college basketball free play is teams like Youngstown State feel renewed to be back home and they are 24-5 ATS, with a winning scoring margin of +3.1 per game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Canada -4½ +108 over NorwayFOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canadians really don’t need any introductions and after watching the first few games of this tournament, it’s clear that unlike the games played in Vancouver four years ago, the big ice surface in Europe allows these gifted players to thrive in a way we’ve never seen before. For the Americans, Swedes, Russians and even the Czechs, it’s been a barrage of outstanding scoring opportunities and the Norwegians are in for the biggest barrage of all.
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Norway isn't known for producing high-end hockey players and its defensive game plan has no chance of slowing down or stopping the powerful Canadian team. To make matters worse for the Norwegians, they don’t have an NHL caliber goaltender. The only current NHL player set to represent Norway at the Olympics is Mats Zuccarello, a good player but he’s just one forward that can’t do it on his own. The only thing the Norwegians have going for them is familiarity, as these players have played together for years but as we’ve seen with these other second tier teams, it does not matter. Canada’s 10th line would be Norway’s first line.
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After seeing all those goals being scored on this big ice surface, one can only imagine how anxious the likes of Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Rick Nash, Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Sharp, Matt Duchene, Corey Perry, John Tavares Jamie Benn, et all are to get on the ice. The Canadians also have no goaltending issues whatsoever with Carey Price in net. They have offensively gifted defensemen and the best collection of forwards ever put together on one team. Yeah, 4½ goals is a lot but we expect the Canadians to score twice that many and show no mercy against this second tier club. We’ll call it 9-0 Canadians. 
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Czech Republic -2½ +111 over LatviaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game goes tonight at midnight. The Czechs fell behind 4-0 against the Swedes early in the second period but from that point on they were the better team. The Czechs got better as the game progressed and that should carry over to this game against an offensively challenged Latvia team. The Czechs seemed a bit out of sorts to start the game and it was quite a surprise not to see Ondrej Pavelec between the pipes but this team is too good to allow one loss to affect them. In fact, one has to admire the Czechs for not throwing in the towel after being down 4-0. They made a game of it. Make no mistake, the Czechs are a threat to win a medal, as they are able to stack three forward lines with first line, if not game-breaking NHL talent. Had they defeated the Swedes, this line would be -3½ and some juice. Their loss to the Swedes makes them very playable spotting 2½-pucks.
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Latvia lost their opener to Switzerland, 1-0 on a goal with 7.9 seconds left. Not scoring on the Swiss and allowing 38 shots on goal is only a small sample of what’s in store for Latvia in this game. Latvia has one NHL player, Zemgus Girgensons of the Buffalo Sabres. In Vancouver, Latvia took 19 minor penalties in three games, the most for any team in the tournament and against this vastly superior opponent on a bigger ice surface, expect more of the same here. Latvia goaltender Edgars Masaļskis is likely going to face between 50 and 60 shots on net here. If he beats us, so be it but Latvia cannot compete with the powers in this event and the Czechs are a power that is a definite threat to for a medal and we’re not talking about a Bronze. Cheap price on a Czech team that figure to go off for at least five goals.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

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Georgia Tech -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We were eyeing this game up yesterday before old man Winter reared his ugly head in the southern part of the US, postponing the game until tonight at 5 p.m. We liked the Jackets yesterday and like them even more today. When you have a change in plans due to weather, game delay, etc., we always tend to take a harder look at the home team. Not really sure why, other than we think we would rather have the team that is already in a comfortable environment as opposed to one that is cooped up in an unnatural environment. A couple of reasons we like Ga Tech, actually more of a play against the Eagles. BC is 2-11 on the road this season and 2-8 in conference play. They have lost three in a row and 6 of their last 7, most of which have been double-digit losses. Tech has lost two in a row and four of their last five games, but they seem to play better (as most teams do) at home. The other angle we like here is that when you have a .500 team playing at home against one of the teams from the bottom of the conference, those are games they really need to win, and so they seem to get extra focus from the coach and the team. We think Gregory will have Tech ready to play hard tonight and take care of the visiting Eagles.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

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Manhattan  at  RiderFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Manhattan -3.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rider is seeking revenge tonight against Manhattan but that might be all the Broncs have going for them in this game. Manhattan is the better team with greater depth and they have shown recent domination against Rider on multiple occasions. Manhattan cruised to a 67-51 win earlier this season and notched a 62-51 win last year when they last faced off on this court. The Jaspers were sleepwalking a bit through their last game against Niagara, barely escaping with a 78-77 win. It was their third win in a row but not a very sharp performance and perhaps a wakeup call. Manhattan’s strong senior class of George Beamon, Michael Alvarado and Rhamel Brown was too much for Rider to handle in the first meeting as they combined for 38 points.
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Rider had a solid three-game winning streak earlier this month but those wins came against Fairfield, St. Peter’s and Monmouth – three of the MAAC’s worst teams. The Broncs have since dropped two straight, losing outright 68-61 as home favorites against Marist and suffering an ugly 82-61 blowout loss on the road at Quinnipiac. Rider has lost 11 games this season and every loss with the exception of two came by margins of more than this pointspread. Let’s hope the East Coast weather cooperates so we can cash in on the road chalk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Matt Fargo

Illinois-Chicago vs. Cleveland State    
Play: Illinois-Chicago +14

Cleveland St. has been rolling along now with six consecutive wins while covering all of those games on top of it. The Vikings are now 8-3 in the Horizon League and they trail first place Green Bay by just one game. After four straight road games, this is the first of four straight home games and while is typically a spot to play on a team because of this scheduling, that is not the case here. Cleveland St. hosts Green Bay on Saturday which makes this a total lookahead situation for the Vikings. Obviously, they know they cannot slip up here but with the amount of points they are laying, all they need to do is coast along and we can grab the over with Illinois-Chicago. It has been a dismal season for the Flames as they are 5-19 overall including 0-10 in the conference. While playing on a winless team may not seem prudent, we don't care about outright wins especially when were are dealing with double-digit spreads. While Illinois-Chicago is 1-8 in true road games, it is 8-1 ATS in those games including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four. The Flames also fall into a super situation as we play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1997.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Jeff Alexander

Rider +3½

I'll grab the points with Rider at home where it has won 13 of 16 against Manhattan. Plus, the Broncs are on an 11-2 ATS run when catching 3.5 to 6.0 points at home and have won these games by an average of 1.8 points. Manhattan won the first meeting, but Rider is on a 45-23 ATS run when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Broncs have won these games by an average of 1.7 points. Bet Rider.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Jack Jones

Colorado +10

The Colorado Buffaloes (18-6) are very much alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013-14 thanks to having four starters back, though one of them has been lost for the season due to injury.

Colorado has proven that it has figured out how to win without point guard Spencer Dinwiddie in recent weeks. It has gone 3-0 in its last three games overall, including an emphatic 91-65 victory over Washington last time out.

The Buffaloes will be out for revenge from a 56-69 home loss to UCLA in their first meeting of the season. That was the first game that Dinwiddie missed, so the team clearly wasn't ready to play without him at that point. They have made the adjustments since as guys have taken on larger roles.

UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games versus dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game after 15-plus games. Colorado is 39-21 ATS in its last 60 games when revenging a loss where it scored less than 60 points. The Bruins are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games off a road win by 10 points or more. The Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games following three or more consecutive home games. Bet Colorado Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Dave Price

Brooklyn Nets +4

This is a game the Nets want badly. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Bulls last season in a grueling seven-game series, and they were embarrassed at home by Chicago on Christmas day in the first regular season matchup. I like Brooklyn's chances of getting a little payback here. The Bulls have been a pathetic home favorite since the start of last season, going just 19-36 ATS in the role during this span. The Bulls are an even more pathetic 13-35 ATS when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points since the beginning of last season. They have won these games on average but only by 1.9 points. The Nets played last night against Charlotte while the Bulls had the night off, but it wasn't a taxing game as they blew out the Bobcats 105-89 with no player logging more than 28:01 minutes. Brooklyn had two days off prior to that game so it should still be pretty fresh. Plus, the Nets have the All-Star break to recover so I expect them to push themselves as they go after a little revenge. Road teams off two consecutive double-digit home wins are 108-70 ATS the last five seasons. Bet the Nets.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Joe Duffy

Creighton vs. Butler    
Play: Butler +8

Precise records vary on the parameters (obviously), but teams with very high winning percentages off a straight up loss are great go-against plays. Creighton’s loss is no aberration. Their stunning rout of Villanova has been surrounded by four spread losses of 7.5 or more with the only other cover in that span by just a point.

In addition, Butler will have to avoid looking ahead to a Villanova team that will be out for blood. So we like the nice letdown and look ahead combo for the big road favorite.

Yes, this is an off year for Butler, struggling in the post Brad Stevens era, but they did take Villanova to OT in their other home game to a nationally ranked team and we cannot ignore they are 173-31 straight up at home this century.

It has not been a great year for Butler, but so often teams rally around a big game at home as Butler did against Villanova. Creighton is in a tough spot and this game goes down to the wire.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Larry Ness

Cal-Santa Barbara at Long Beach St.
Prediction: Long Beach St.

The Gauchos (Cal-Santa Barbara) travel to Long Beach to face the 49ers in a Big West Conference clash at the Walter Pyramid. UC Santa Barbara (15-6) has won three in a row and four of its last six games en route to a 6-2 conference mark, which is good for second in the Big West (UC Irvine leads at 7-2), although Long Beach St (just 10-13 overall) can move into a tie with UCSB win a win (49ers are 6-3 in league play).

Long Beach State has won the last three Big West regular season titles but not only saw its top player graduate from LY's yeam (the 6-7 Ennis led in scoring and rebounding at 16.5 & 6.7) but prior to the season, head coach Don Monson booted forward Freeland (11.0 & 4.9) plus guards King (9.8 & 4.8) and Deng (5.3). Long Beach St opened the year by beating Hawaii-Pacific but followed with NINE consecutive losses, most against strong non-conference opposition.

However, 6-5 UCLA transfer Lamb became eligible on Dec 19 and the 49ers are 9-4 in his 13 games (9-2-1 ATS).
Lamb (15.5 PPG) has been the perfect backcourt complement to PG Caffey (16.7-4.7-4.3). Spencer (9.3) starts in a three-guard lineup with the 6-9 Jennings (9.9-8.1) and 6-7 JUCO transfer Samuels (6.0-5.5).

UCSB is led by the terrific Alan Williams, the team's 6-8 center (23.1 & 11.4). He's surrounded by a pair of 6-8 forwards in Brown (7.8-4.6) and Brewe (4.4-3.9) while the backcourt has four contributors. Bryson (10.8-4.4) and JC transfer Harmon (7.2-5.1 APG) start, with Boswell (11.3) and Childress (5.3) coming off the bench.

The 49ers dropped an earlier decision to the Gauchos, 64-51, at Santa Barbara back on Jan 16, enduring one of their worst shooting nights of the season, making only 29.9% from the floor (including 5 of 27 on threes). Tyler Lamb was only 1 of 13 from the floor that night but has been a HUGE plus since joining the team.

"The Beach" have gone 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS since losing at Santa Barbara and it's "payback time" tonight. Take the home team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Sam Martin

Minnesota at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin

The Badgers win in Illinois stopped the bleeding - along with a 1-5 SU and ATS losing skid - but their two-point home win against Michigan State should have this team's confidence back up. We scored a close winner on the Spartans in that game (as a four-point underdog), however we have to admit we were a big surprised and certainly impressed with how Wisconsin kept their composure in the final moments of that game to win at the buzzer.

Much easier home test tonight with Minnesota in town, as the Gophers have lost four straight road games in the Big Ten - at Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, and Michigan State - and failing at the betting window in all four games as well. Badgers are 13-4 ATS at home after a home victory, and we look for that trend to continue with an easy win and cover here!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Wunderdog

Denver at IUPUI
Pick: Denver -11

The Indiana - Purdue Jaguars have had a rough season at 5-21, but that is just part of the story. The Jaguars have three wins vs. Division-3 teams, and are otherwise a brutal 2-21. They have now lost 14 straight games to Division-1 teams, and what is even worse than that is 9 of the last 10 losses have come by more than 11 points. At 12-11, Denver is certainly capable of adding to their woes as the Pioneers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning five of their last six contests. Denver is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a losing road record, and will lay another big loss on the Jags in this one. Play on Denver.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Steve Rich

Utah vs. USC    
Play: USC +4

Utah has yet to win on the road this year. This is a young team that needs to learn how to win on the road, and what better place than USC, who are 1-9 in conference and giving up 75.1 ppg. The Utes have a strong defense only surrendering 63.3 ppg and as we all know defense travels. You can always pull out your defense to stop the other team even on those poor shooting nights. Tonight shouldn’t be a poor shooting night though as three of Utah’s top four scorers are from the LA area and I look for them to be ready for this game against the Trojans shoddy defense. It's always nice to come home! I think we are getting good value on the line here with Utah not having won a game on the road. They beat USC by 18 in Utah one month ago.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

AC Dinero

Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee Tech
Play: Tennessee Tech +3.5

Eastern Kentucky comes in winners of 3 of their past 4 to take on a Tenn Tech team that has won 2 in a row. EKU is the better offensive team. But their defense is brutal. In fact, over the past 5 games, they have given up 53% from the floor. Tough to win on the raod , let alone cover as a favorite, playing defense like that. In addition, if thet aren't hitting shots, they will get pushed around on the boards. Take the home dog

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Chris Jordan

My free play for Thursday night is on the UCLA Bruins laying the double digits to visiting Colorado.

This one being on national television, I think the Bruins (18-5, 7-3 Pac 12) will be fired up to remind everyone who the storied program in college basketball really is. This one being at Pauley Pavilion, it's the right stage and a good spot for them.

I know the Buffaloes (18-6, 7-4) are a respectable team, and are gunning for at-large bid into the dance, but UCLA already won the previous meeting between the two schools this season, a 69-56 win at Colorado’s dangerously rowdy Coors Events Center back on Jan. 16. Since the Buffas have joined the Pac-12 Conference, UCLA is a perfect 3-0 against Colorado.

UCLA is in after an impressive come-from-behind win at rival USC, 83-73, last Saturday, as the Bruins swept the regular-season series from the Trojans. Norman Powell was resilient and the catalyst in the win, scoring 17 of his season-high 21 points in the second half, to lead the Bruins back from a 41-35 halftime deficit. The Bruins, as a whole, showed great resiliency, opening the second half on a 10-0 run and building its cushion to as many as 16 points late in the second half. Team star Kyle Anderson posted his conference-leading 12th double-double against Southern Cal, totaling 15 points and 10 rebounds.

UCLA came into the week ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (82.9 ppg), ninth in field goal percentage (49.0) and fifth in assists per game (17.2), while it ranks second in the Pac-12 in points per game. The Bruins will be too much tonight.

2♦ UCLA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Oklahoma City Thunder as the road favorite against the L.A. Lakers.

Last game before the All-Star break for both teams, so no real reason for the Thunder to hold anything back tonight against the depleted Lakers.

OKC has followed up their upset loss at Orlando with a pair of wins and covers their last 2 times out, and they have been able to keep better Laker units at bay in recent meetings, as the Thunder is 8-2 straight up the last 10 series meetings (playoffs included), and they are also 5-2 against the spread the last 7 times the teams have squared off.

Los Angeles owns just 2 straight up wins their last 11 games, and they are on a 2-6 spread slide their last 8 games. With the amount of injuries littered on the Lakers bench, and their lack of depth, easy to envision the Thunder heading to the break with a 15 points or better win at the Staples Center tonight.

3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Craig Davis

Thursday's free play winner is Oklahoma City over the Lakers.

I don't even know how to say this without sounding harsh... but the LA Lakers are atrocious!! They are 18-34 on the season and have just eight wins in 23 games at the Staples Center.

This is already a struggling team without Kobe Bryant... but have you seen how many players this team is missing tonight?

Steve Nash won't play tonight. Neither will Paul Gasol. So, overall, this team is without Kobe, Nash, Gasol, Young, Farmer, Meeks and Henry.

This is one of those situations where common logic tells you the Thunder should win by 30, but sometimes when it looks too easy it is.

But as you know... over the past few days I've taken the latter approach and been burned. Not tonight with OKC.

It's pretty simple, honestly. The Thunder were already a better basketball team even if the Lakers had their best starting 5 on the floor. So tonight they don't (not even close) and they are expected to stay within 10 of the Thunder?

It's just not that simple. They might hang for a while, but in the end the Thunder bench will prove how good they are as I expect them to increase the lead.

Take OKC as your free play of the day.

2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Scott Delaney

My free winner is on St. Mary's, laying points to San Diego, as we have a serious revenge situation in our favor. The Gaels went to Southern Cal not too long ago and got hammered by USD. Tonight it's time for payback.

This is actually a very big weekend for the Gaels, as they also host BYU, so the focus is all about basketball, and it's all about winning big. It begins with St. Mary's (18-7, 8-4 WCC) looking to carry the momentum back to Moraga, Calif., after a pair of hard-fought wins in So Cal, where the Gaels beat Loyola Marymount in L.A., 77-58 last Thursday, and Pepperdine in Malibu 69-67 in overtime.

Now with plenty of momentum, the Gaels catch USD at the right time to exact revenge, as the Toreros arrive in Moraga after losing their last three - all at home - falling to Pacific, San Francisco and Santa Clara.

The home team has covered four straight meetings, and after tonight you can make that five in a row.

2♦ ST. MARY'S

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 13

Brad Wilton

With just a 3-11 against the spread mark their last 14 conference games, it is just a smart money play to GO AGAINST the Trojans of Southern Cal right now.

I will do just that as Utah comes calling looking to improve on their 16-7 mark for the season. The Utes took the first meeting between the schools, dumping the Trojans 84-66 as the double-digit home favorite, and they do hit the land of Troy riding a two game win and cover streak.

No such luck for USC, as the Trojans latest losing streak stands at 4 in a row, and they have also lost 9 of their last 10 (that loss at Utah included), with just 3 covers in those 10 games.

Get the broom out tonight, the Utes improve their record to 17-7 with the win and cover over the going nowhere Trojans.

Have to lay it with the road favorite.

3♦ UTAH

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