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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

River City Sharps

Xavier +10

This appears to be a nice spot to back the road dog as Xavier enters this game off two straight losses, including a really bad performance vs. Seton Hall on Saturday. The Wildcats are winners of 8 of 9, the only loss being their game vs. Creighton where the Blue Jays went wild from beyond the arc. First of all, Chris Mack teams have had a real knack of bouncing back and playing well on the road, sometimes when you least expect it. This is really a game that Xavier could use to bolster their NCAA resume and off the loss to Seton Hall, we would expect a really good effort tonight from the Muskies. One advantage for the visitors may be on the glass, where The Musketeers have outrebounded 11 straight opponents and lead the Big East in rebound margin at +6.7. Xavier's Matt Stainbrook is currently second in the conference with 8.8 rebounds per game. We think that Villanova wins this game, but not before they get X's absolute best shot, which is enough to keep them within the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

EZWINNERS

Xavier +10

Xavier has lost two straight games coming into this match up with Villanova which I think has inflated this line a bit. Both of these teams can score, but neither team has been very good at the defensive end of the floor which is why I think catching double digit with the Muskateers is great value. Xavier is on a 19-7 run against the spread and they are 4-1 against the spread this season as an underdog. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Sportsbook Breakers

Pistons at Heat
Pick: Pistons

While the Pistons have struggled with consistency, look for them to get up for this game. Detroit's size is enough to give Miami some trouble and keep this game close. Detroit is 1-1 vs Miami this season, losing the last game 110-95 in December. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS (8.56 ppg) since Mar 13, 2013 on the road when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up. Miami shot 56% from the field in that win. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS (9.17 ppg) since Mar 22, 2013 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field. Miami also shot 53.9% in a 106-91 win over the Knicks Saturday night. The Heat are 0-7 ATS (-5.64 ppg) since Dec 18, 2013 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. Ray Allen took only four of those shots making one of those. The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-6.95 ppg) since Jan 02, 2013 at home after Ray Allen took fewer than 10 shots in a road win. Detroit has won big in their last two games. They won 199-96 over Philly Saturday in a game where they had 12 steals. The Pistons are 8-0 ATS (9.19 ppg) since Mar 13, 1998 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they had at least 12 steals.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Steve Janus

Iowa State Cyclones +7

The Cyclones have righted the ship with two wins in their last three games after dropping three straight. The Cowboys on the other hand are in a major slump. Oklahoma State has lost two straight and three of four, including a shocking 70-76 home loss to Baylor as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. With the off the court drama surrounding freshman guard Stevie Clark, I just don't see the Cowboys playing their best basketball tonight. That gives me plenty reason to believe Iowa State will make this a game and cover the large 7-point spread on the road.

Oklahoma State is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record at least 15+ games into the season and are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs teams who are shooting at a clip of 45% or better and holding their opponents to 42% or worse. Iowa State on the other hand is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a win by 6-points or less and are clearly undervalued here due to failing to cover the spread in six straight games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Steve Rich

Georgetown vs. DePaul    
Play: DePaul +5½

These two teams are about an equal match in stats. Georgetown has only one win on the road this year. That was an OT win at Butler. Oddly enough DePaul won in OT at Butler also. The Hoyas did pick up a huge win Saturday against Michigan State. Don’t as me how. The Blue Demons are without three key players. In their absence freshman R J Curington has stepped up. He scored 22 against Providence Saturday. I know Georgetown could really pick up steam after beating the Spartans but, I like DePaul to give them a real battle here on their home court. Maybe a little let down for the Hoyas after the big win. DePaul only lost by seven at Georgetown in the first meeting this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Bruce Marshall

Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Dallas Mavericks

Rematch of Dallas' 5-point win at "The Q" not long ago (Jan. 20). Neither team was shooting with much accuracy (combined 9 of 43 beyond arc!) that night, but it was Cleveland's recurring problems with bench production that proved harmful, as its reserves scored only 8 points, compared to Mav counterparts, who added 33. Of concern for Cleveland were losses in 4 of 5 games on recent homestand (lowly Milwaukee the only victim) as offense bogged down and failed to crack century mark in any of those games. And at only 7-15 vs. the line on road thru Jan. 31, Cavs were already a hard sell as a visitor.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Andre Gomes

Magic / Pacers Under 190.5

I've won my only play of the day w/ BOS yesterday but, the reality is that ORL was quite competitive in that game even though they played without J. Nelson. Without Nelson, rookie Oladipo was the "Point Guard" and he clearly struggled in that position w/ 3-16 FG, 5 assists vs. 3 TO's. However, ORL was competitive because their frontcourt unit was solid offensively: Vucevic 7-14 FG, Davis 6-12 FG and Harris 6-12 FG! The key factor in here is that ORL faced the poor BOS frontcourt defense unit led by Bass & Sullinger and so, It was "relatively" easy for them to produce in this area.

This might change tonight vs. IND frontcourt….

Nelson is confirmed being OUT for today, so ORL will have the same ball handling problems for tonight. The problem is that I don't expect their frontcourt to be so efficient vs. best interior defense of the league.

We had one of the worst "bad beats" of the season w/ Under IND vs. BKN because the game was in pace for an "easy winner". IND scored 97 points in that game but note that they went 37 times to the FT line because once again, they struggled to hit outside shots - just 3-15 3pts vs. BKN…1-15 vs. PHX & 5-21 vs. LAL! I expect the trend to carry on tonight while this contest won't be fun to watch.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Prairie View/ Alabama A&M Under 132.5: We're gonna go way under the radar for this one. This has been a low scoring series, with none of the last 8 games between these teams putting up more than 121 points. Those last 8 games have averaged just 115.4 ppg. That's a 16 point difference from tonight's total. Prairie View comes in averaging just 68.7 ppg in their last 3 games, while scoring just 65.5 ppg on the road for the year. Alabama A&M allows 67.2 ppg at home, but on just 41.9% shooting and they have allowed just 64.8 ppg on 40.9% shooting in their last 5 games overall. Can't see more than the low 60's from Prairie View in this one. For Alabama A&M, they have not been a strong offense all year, scoring just 61.4 ppg overall and 61 ppg on 40.8% shooting in their last 5 games overall. They have scored 66 ppg at home and Prairie View has allowed 85 ppg on the road, but Ala A&M just doesn't have a high powered offense to take advantage of that weak defense. Ala A&M Like a slow pace as they are 254th in the nation in shots per game and as see from the numbers above, when they shoot they are not that good. With Ala A&M at home they should get the pace more to their liking and that should be a game in the low 120's at best. 

2 UNIT PLAY

Syracuse/ Notre Dame Under 131: The Cuse are off  monumental game vs Duke and I feel they will be  bit flat, which should show up more on the offensive end than the defensive end. The Cuse ran with Duke, but that is not their game. They like to slow it down and play tough defense. The Irish should look to slow it down with their burn offense as they do with many of their big games. The Cuse allow just 57.5 ppg at home and should keep the Iris in the mid 50's at best, while the Cuse put up no more than 70 points of their own. 68-56 sounds about right.

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