Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Memphis at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to bounce back from their loss at Washington on Saturday and come into their contest tonight against Memphis carrying a 30-13 ATS record in their last 43 games following an upset defeat. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2)

Game 701-702: Orlando at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.054; Indiana 123.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 15 1/2; 190 1/
2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+15 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: Portland at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.787; Washington 125.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: Detroit at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.924; Miami 125.373
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Over

Game 707-708: Philadelphia at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 110.288; Brooklyn 117.604
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+10 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: New York at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 119.083; Milwaukee 108.199
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 192
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-6 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Memphis at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 122.076; Oklahoma City 132.276
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: San Antonio at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 118.708; New Orleans 121.014
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4); Over

Game 715-716: Cleveland at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.030; Dallas 120.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 9; 205
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9); Under

Game 717-718: Toronto at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.896; Utah 120.571
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3); Under

Game 719-720: LA Clippers at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.450; Denver 117.060
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 216
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3); Over

Game 721-722: Chicago at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.628; Sacramento 116.575
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Under

NHL

Chicago at Los Angeles
The Blackhawks head to LA tonight to face a Kings team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games against Central Division opponents. Chicago is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-110)

Game 1-2: Edmonton at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.716; Buffalo 10.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-105); Over

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.715; Pittsburgh 12.347
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-205); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-205); Under

Game 5-6: Vancouver at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.610; Detroit 10.511
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+100); Over

Game 7-8: Colorado at New Jersey (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.308; New Jersey 12.224
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-110); Under

Game 9-10: Columbus at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.029; Anaheim 12.398
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-185); Over

Game 11-12: Chicago at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.330; Los Angeles 10.456
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-110); Under

Game 13-14: Philadelphia at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.020; San Jose 12.011
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-185); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Notre Dame at Syracuse
The Irish come into their contest tonight against Syracuse carrying a 6-1 ATS record in their last 17 games as an underdog of 12 1/2 to 15 points. Notre Dame is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+12)

Game 723-724: Northeastern at Delaware (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 52.438; Delaware 56.547
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 4
Vegas Line: Delaware by 7
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+7)

Game 725-726: Xavier at Villanova (7:00pa.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 64.413; Villanova 71.948
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 7 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Villanova by 10; 148
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+10); Over

Game 727-728: NC-Wilmington at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 45.202; Drexel 54.575
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 11
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+11)

Game 729-730: Notre Dame at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 63.895; Syracuse 73.767
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 10; 124
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+12); Under

Game 731-732: Georgetown at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 63.364; DePaul 60.318
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 3; 135
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+5 1/2); Under

Game 733-734: Iowa State at Oklahoma State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 69.490; Oklahoma State 77.938
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: Iona at Monmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.824; Monmouth 53.387
Dunkel Line: Iona by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+6 1/2)

Game 737-738: St. Peter's at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 44.948; Manhattan 62.348
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-13 1/2)

Game 739-740: Fairfield at Rider (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 45.388; Rider 56.868
Dunkel Line: Rider by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-9 1/2)

Game 741-742: Montana at Montana State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 48.166; Montana State 45.266
Dunkel Line: Montana by 3
Vegas Line: Montana by 1
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-1)

Game 743-744: South Alabama at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 48.339; Georgia State 64.822
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-12 1/2)

Game 729-730: Samford at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 43.117; Furman 44.211
Dunkel Line: Furman by 1
Vegas Line: Samford by 1
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+1)

Game 751-752: Hampton at Morgan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 49.907; Morgan State 55.490
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Morgan State by 4; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (-4); Under

Game 753-754: Prairie View A&M at Alabama A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 37.947; Alabama A&M 40.267
Dunkel Line: Alabama A&M by 2 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Alabama A&M by 5 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Prairie View A&M (+5 1/2); Over

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Bryan Power

Portland vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

Predictably, Portland has started to regress after a dream start to the season.  They are just 1-6 ATS L7 games....

The Blazers very nearly blew a double digit lead Saturday night at home vs. Toronto.  They went scoreless for nearly five minutes (which put a scare into me as I had the Over) before being able to put the Raptors away and win the game 106-103.  Now they must hit the road where they've lost three in a row straight up. The last 11 times the team has been a road favorite of three points or less, they are just 2-9 against the spread.  They were also swept by Washington last season.

The Wizards are coming off an impressive upset of Oklahoma City, snapping the Thunder's 10-game win streak.  John Wall has really come into his own of late, averaging 23.5 PPG the last six home games. The team is 3-0 ATS its last three games, covering against the Warriors, Clippers and OKC with two outright wins.  This will be the eighth chance this season for the Wiz to climb over .500. While they are 0-7 SU previously, the eighth time will be the charm!   Take the points.

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Jesse Schule

Edmonton vs. Buffalo
Pick: Over

The Oilers are coming off a 4-0 shutout loss to the Bruins on Saturday, but they figure to have a chance to score a few goals tonight in Buffalo.

The Sabres will start backup goalie Jhonas Enroth, who has just a single win in 18 starts this season. He is 0-5 with a 3.20 GAA in his last five starts, and he's allowed 13 goals in his last three home starts.

Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, including a 10-2 Buffalo victory back in 2009. The over trend has held true in six of the Oilers last seven versus opponents from the Eastern Conference, and Buffalo has played five straight overs at home.

The Sabres are coming off a 7-1 loss to Colorado, their highest number of goals allowed in a single game this season.

These teams are two of the worst in the league defensively, and this game should see it's share of scoring chances. We see a total of 5 here, when it likely should be 5.5.

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Art Aronson

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans
Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans (20-26) come into this game quietly having won four of five and I expect they make a strong case to at least come close to winnings this game against a shorthanded San Antonio Spurs (34-13) team. The Spurs narrowly squeaked out a win over a Sacramento Kings team that was playing the second half of a back to back in its? last game out. The Spurs have lost four of their last six games overall and will be playing with Ginobili, Leonard and Green for this game. While San Antonio has been getting wins against the Pelicans, New Orleans is 5-0 ATS when hosting the Spurs at home the last three seasons. Anthony Davis is averaging 20.0 points in three career home games against the Spurs so you definitely keep an eye out for him and expect him to have a good game. This is an excellent opportunity for the Pelicans to get a win over a Spurs team and it knows it going into this game. Consider grabbing the points with a strong chance for an upset outright win.

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Jimmy Boyd

Iona -5½

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Gaels are a much better team than the Monmouth Hawks, and I expect it to show today. Iona comes into this matchup averaging 83.2 points per game. When playing on the road they have still managed to put up a spectacular 77.4 points per game. The Hawks simply lack the offensive talent it takes to keep pace with a team like Iona.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Gaels. You should play against home teams as an underdog or pick like Monmouth when they are coming off a loss by six points or less, and they are a team that returned just two starters from last season. This system has a 132-87 (60%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Iona when they are coming off three straight wins over conference rivals, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games and are playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 76-39 (66%) against the spread.

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Doug Upstone

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks    
Play: Dallas Mavericks -9

On Monday, Play On favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Mavericks who average 102 or more points a game, against a defensive team like Cleveland who allows 98-102 PPG after 42 or more games on the season, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight straight games. This rare free NBA play is 30-7 ATS the last 17 years.

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Red Dog Sports

Flyers vs. Sharks
Play: Under 5½

San Jose has played 5 goals or under in 9 of its last 10 games. It does scare me that the Flyers have 16 overs/11 unders/4 pushes on the road but this looks to be a 3-2 final. Take the under which is at 5.5.

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Jim Feist

Portland Trailblazers at Washington Wizards
Pick: Washington Wizards

Change of events in recent days for the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers had the easiest schedule in the NBA through the end of January. The rest of the season? They now face the most difficult schedule and it's starting to show. Since their five game win streak ended on Jan 18, the Blazers are just 3-4 S/U. Worse news for bettors is that Portland is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. This from a team that was regarded as possibly top 3 in the NBA in January. The Blazers are still third in the Western Conference, but the Clippers are fast approaching as is Houston. Portland still leads the NBA in points scored (108.3 ppg) and in rebounds per game (46.5), but they are 27th in points allowed per game (103.4). The Blazers are led by LaMarcus Aldridge, who averages 24.4 ppg and 11.6 rebounds per game. By virtue of their upset win over Oklahoma City last game, the Washington Wizards are now back to .500 at 23-23. The Wizards beat a red-hot and likely the best team in the NBA, 96-81, shutting down red-hot Kevin Durant. Durant had a 12-game streak of 30 points or more come to an end against Washington with 26 points. The Wizards are playing better than they have in years, thanks to All-Star John Wall who is averaging 19.8 ppg. The Wizards are 7-4 S/U in their last 11 games. They are also riding a 3-0 spread record win streak. The Blazers have had problems on the road recently, going just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away contests. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 home games against teams with a winning record and 11-4 ATS their last 15 against the NBA Northwest. We get the Wizards as a home dog here, but I expect a straight up win by Washington.

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Chase Diamond

Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings
Pick: Los Angeles Kings

This game features the 33-10-14 Chicago at the 30-21-6 Kings. Huge game for the Kings as they lost to Chicago last time out 1-0 so revenge is a factor tonight. 77% of the public are betting the road Chicago team yet this line is really moving showing heavy sharp action on the Kings. I expect a really emotional Kings team here and heavily motivated to win this one.

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Larry Ness

Iowa State at Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State

No. 16 Iowa St visits No.8 Oklahoma St on Monday. However, by game time, the Cowboys will no longer be ranked that high, as they are coming off back-to-back losses and the new poll will be released early Monday afternoon. Could it be that the Cyclones are catching the Cowboys at just the right time?

Oklahoma State could be without reserve guard Stevie Clark (5.3 PPG), as the freshman was reportedly arrested early Sunday morning on suspicion of outraging public decency, his second arrest in just over a month. He's already missed five games this season for violating team rules. Oklahoma State has lost THREE of its last four and head coach Travis Ford says his team needs to regroup before facing the Cyclones. “We can’t feel sorry for ourselves, because it won't do any good,” Ford told reporters. “We have to weather the storm. These are tough times. Everyone goes through them. How we respond is important. For us to have success, we need to recover as a team. If we continue to play like individuals, we will continue to struggle.”

The Cyclones are looking for their third win in a four-game stretch against ranked opponents, after beating No. 23 Oklahoma 81-75 Saturday in Ames. Georges Niang scored 27 points (he's averaging 21.8 points in his last four) while Melvin Ejim added 22 and matched a career high with 16 rebounds. "This was a big one for us. For morale, for momentum, just to get back into it," said the 6-6 Ejim (18.1 & 7.8), who leads the conference in scoring. "The Big 12 is a grind. It's the best conference right now, and every game is no joke."

The 6-7 Niang (16.4-4.1) and the 6-6 Hogue (11.2-8.8) join Ejim up front and while the trio lacks height, the group .can rebound (especially Hogue and Ejim). The 6-4 Kane can "do it all" (a Marshall transfer), as he has led the backcourt all season, averaging 16.0-6.6-5.8. He's joined by Thomas (7.0), Long (6.9), Morrris (6.4) and Clark (when NOT suspended!). Yes, Iowa St is off an impressive 81-75 win over Oklahoma but the Cyclones are just 2-4 their last six games (after opening 14-0), going 0-6 ATS!

Oklahoma St lacks size as well and the loss for the season of the 6-8 Cobbins (4.5-4.3), doesn't help. However, 6-4 guard Marcus Smart (17.2-5.7-4.5) leads a group of four, double digit scorers, which also includes fellow guards Brown (16.9-5.3) and Forte (12.4), along with 6-7 swingman Nash (14.0-7.5). Oklahoma's 76-70 loss this past Saturday to Baylor (Bears shot 51.9%, including 11 of 23 on threes) was its FIRST in 11 games at home.

Despite that loss, OSU comes in outscoring opponents at home during the season on average, 88.5-to-61.9 PPG, and note that in five true road games TY, Iowa St has allowed 83.0 PPG. That hardly bodes well here, nor does the fact that the Cowboys have won the last 18 home matchups with the Cyclones, including all 11 since the Big 12 was formed.

The Cyclones will be seeking their first win in Stillwater since 1988 and the bet here is, they don't get it and don't stay with double digits. Lay the points.

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SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY -½ +151 over Colorado

Regulation only. We could take the Devils in a pick-em spot but their poor record in OT and shootouts make them much more appealing in regulation time only. In that regard, we much prefer the Devils taking back 3/2 odds as oppose to sweating out another shootout. If you’re on board for this game, we’re suggesting betting it sooner rather than later because it appears as though J.S. Giguere will get the start for Colorado. Once that is confirmed this price will decrease so bet it now. Giguere is 7-4 with a 2.60 GAA and .913 save percentage. Not bad for a back-up but don’t buy any of it. Giguere is the mirror image of Martin Brodeur, only worse because his positioning isn’t as good. Giguere last played on January 21 when he came in against Toronto in relief of Semyon Varlamov when the Avs were down 4-1. Prior to that, Giguere’s save percentages in five of his last six starts looked like this: .789, .708, .893, .857, .929 and .783.  That .929 anomaly came against Calgary. The Avalanche are coming off a 7-1 throttling of Buffalo. They have won three in a row and play the Rangers at MSG tomorrow. That’s why they are likely using Giguere tonight.

Regardless of whether the Avs use Varlamov or Giguere, we’re still fading them here. We’re not sure if people understand just how tough these Devils are. They got off to a horrible start with Brodeur being the #1 goaltender but that changed a few weeks ago and the Devils have been moving up the standings ever since. Over his last 12 games, Schneider has posted a 1.86 GAA and .935 save percentage. Over that stretch, New Jersey has picked up points in nine of 12 games. The Devils are tough as shoe leather. They just go out there every night and play a disciplined, methodical game with focus on moving the puck out efficiently while limiting the opponents scoring chances and working the puck deep in the opposition’s end with a relentless forecheck. The Devils are right in the thick of this playoff race and catch the Avalanche at precisely the right time in that Colorado is in New York tomorrow and they’re saving Varmalov for that one.

Columbus +157 over ANAHEIM

The Ducks have hit their first snag of the season with a 4-4 record over their last eight games. For most teams’, that’s not really a funk but for the Ducks it is because three of those losses occurred at home against Winnipeg, Minnesota and Dallas. Even when the Ducks defeated the Kings in back-to-back games last week, Anaheim was clearly outplayed in both of them, allowing far more scoring chance and far more shots on goal as well. In fact, the laboring Kings outshot Anaheim by a combined count of 67-42 in those two games. The Ducks also recently lost 4-2 against Chicago and managed just 21 shots on net against them. In three of the Ducks last eight games they have mustered just 21 shots on net in three separate occasions. Anaheim is actually fortunate that they’re not on a losing streak of seven defeats in eight games right now. The Ducks are too good to regress significantly but it appears that their outstanding record up to this point has taken a toll and that the Olympic break wire can’t get here soon enough for them. It’s also worth noting that the Ducks have the Blackhawks up next on Wednesday before their final game before the break in Nashville on Saturday night. The Ducks can afford another breather and that appears to be their mind set right now.

The Jackets are playing too good to ignore at this price. Since the return of Sergei Bobrovsky on January 6, Columbus has won 10 of 13 games for the best record in the league over that span. In those 10 victories, the Jackets have outscored the opposition by an incredible count of 44-20. That’s an average of close to 2½ pucks a game in their favor. Win or lose, we’re definitely going with the best of it here and once again, we’ll play the value and let the chips fall where they may. Overlay.

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SPORTS WAGERS

MILWAUKEE +7 over New York

The Bucks are a complete dumpster fire. They have one win in their last 16 games and most of those have been by the blowout variety. In fact, Milwaukee has just four covers in those last 16 games. From Larry Sanders, the darling of the advanced-statistics community last season to the rest of these jokers, the Bucks are finding it near impossible to compete with their top four scorers and seven of their top nine are shooting under 40 percent. From a wagering standpoint, the Bucks have been unplayable and will likely be so the entire year aside from the occasional spot. This is one of those times.

The New York Knicks have talent. Carmelo Anthony is a huge talent, Tyson Chandler is a player every NBA team would love to have and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a young gun with great potential. However, what the Knicks don’t have is direction, leadership or the intangibles that allow teams to overachieve or be competitive. Carmelo Anthony is the type of player that will never win anything because he just does not care. Anthony can be seen laughing and joking around when his team is down 25. A guy like Kevin Garnett in his prime would be banging heads on the sidelines if his team were down 25. C-Melo is the Knicks’ leader and is supposed to set an example However, the example he sets is that it just doesn’t matter unless the spotlight is on in big games on TV. Well, the Knicks are coming off a loss on Super Bowl weekend against Miami. They have the Blazers up next on Wednesday back at Madison Square. For the Knicks, this game has about as much appeal as rush hour and for Carmelo Anthony it has less. As unappealing as the Bucks are against anyone, the dysfunctional Knicks are less appealing spotting road points, especially with rumours regarding trades swirling around like crazy. Bucks may get a rare win here. 

Pass CBB

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Rob Veno   

St. Peter's at Manhattan
Play: Manhattan -13.5

Inopportune time for slumping St. Peter’s to visit conference power Manhattan which is off back-to-back losses. Even more frustrating for the Jaspers is the fact that their consecutive losses came against MAAC upper echelon teams Iona and Quinnipiac which dropped Manhattan from a first place tie down to a fourth place tie in the league standings. Tonight’s step down in class figures to be the perfect elixir for head coach Steve Masiello’s troops who already handled St. Peter’s rather easily 74-62 in Jersey City a month ago. The matchup of Manhattan’s stifling, pressure style defense versus the Peacocks mediocre, slow tempo offense was disastrous for St. Peter’s in that game as they shot a season low 29.8% from the field. In that game, SPU scored as many points from the free throw line (31) as they did from the floor. The huge number of fouls called on Manhattan (26) in that game were largely due to the Jaspers forcing a faster pace which led to 11 steals, 17 St. Peter’s turnovers and an overall offensive discomfort for the methodical Peacocks. With head coach John Dunne’s visiting squad’s current offensive struggles (56.5 ppg L4G), expect Manhattan to again shut them down. St. Peter’s 40.4 FG% is by far the worst in the conference and once they get behind, extending margin should be very doable for Manhattan.  Jaspers are 4-3 ATS against league foes as double digit favorites so they’re capable of handling this price tag and my power ratings suggest they should be -16 in this spot. Will lay the heavy wood here in what looks to be a prime blowout situation.

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DAVE COKIN

NORTHEASTERN AT DELAWARE
PLAY: NORTHEASTERN +6

Second meeting time tonight at Delaware as the Blue Hens play host to Northeastern. The Huskies will try to even the score after losing the first hookup by four points in a typically close CAA game.

Delaware won that first battle minus the services of Jarvis Threatt, who has subsequently been suspended and is out of action along with Marvin King-Davis. The Blue Hens looked incredible in the first game following the suspensions as they demolished William & Mary on the road. Things got much tougher on Saturday as Delaware barely escaped at home against a mediocre NC Wilmington squad.

Northeastern continues to be a puzzling entry. The Huskies cannot play a lick at home for whatever reason, but they have been productive on the road. The problems for this team are easy enough to spot. They turn it over too frequently, they can’t make free throws, and they’re not especially adept at shooting from the field as well.

My sense is that this could be a very close game. That’s frequently the case in rematches when the first game was tight. Add in the fact that Delaware is shorthanded and seemed to have a great deal of trouble generating consistent offense on Saturday. That could be the case again this evening as Northeastern is a reasonably adept defensive squad.

Northeastern is not a team that will inspire a great deal of confidence. There’s not a whole lot to like about this team and that ugly 7-15 slate is fairly legit. But the Huskies appear to play with more confidence on the road for whatever reason and as stated previously, close first meetings often lead to much the same thing the second time around. I’ll side with Northeastern plus the points to grind out a cover tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

John Ryan

Xavier at Villanova
Play: Villanova

The simulator shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 12 or more points. Weather is a big factor in the Philadelphia region with 6 to 8 inches of snow expected by 3:00 PM ET. Obviously, the only thing weather can do to this game is to have it cancelled, but given the forecast for the storm to taper off by 4:00 PM ET, the game has yet to be cancelled. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008. Play against an underdog (XAVIER) in a game involving two solid defensive teams allowing 40-42.5% opponent shooting and is a dominant rebounding teams >=+6 reb/game) and now facing a good rebounding team getting +3 to +6 reb/game. SIM projects that several game situations that have been strong money makers for backers of Villanova. Wildcats are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers than their opponents over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Villanova.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Tony George

Iowa State +7

Too many points in a big game tonight and ISU put it to Oklahoma on Saturday while Okie State was getting waxed at home by Baylor, and while I grabbed the points with the Sooners as a premium play in that game just getting the cover, ISU matches up well against Okie State. The Cowboys have dropped 3 out of their last 4 games, and have not been playing good perimeter defense, which is doom against Iowa States shooting prowess. Iowa State lives and dies by the 3 pointer, and they have not fared well on the road in Big 12 play, but this is a ton of points to be handing a team who can easily score 75 points in this game with Okie St. giving up 73 ppg their last 5. The Cowboys vaunted defense at home at 61 ppg this season was blown up by Baylor’s 77 points Saturday.

Iowa States defense is simply their worst enemy giving up 81 ppg their last 5 games, and with Marcus Smart running around for OSU it can strike fear in your backing ISU here, but I am not laying 7 with a team who has dumped 3 out of 4 and let Baylor whip them in this same arena over the weekend. Iowa State has dropped 6 against the number in a row, and trends do reverse and 7 points here is a big number for a struggling Cowboy team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Jack Jones

Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards are one of the most improved teams in the league this season. They have finally been able to stay healthy, and as a result, they have shown what they can do. They are a legitimate threat to win the No. 3 seed in the East this season.

Washington (23-23) is looking to get above .500 with a win tonight. It has beaten two of the best teams in the West in Golden State and Oklahoma City in two of its last three games. Now, I like its chances of knocking off another Western Conference power in Portland Monday.

The Blazers got off to a ridiculous start this season, but they have finally come back down to reality in recent weeks. They are just 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. I have no doubt this team overachieved in the first half, which will make them good fade material in the second half of the season. That is proving to be the case thus far.

Washington is 54-34 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Portland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games. Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Blazers. Bet the Wizards Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Jeff Alexander

Memphis Grizzlies +9

The Grizzlies have given Oklahoma City major problems with their stingy defense. They have won 5 of the last 6 meetings and 8 of the last 11 as a result. They have also kept the score within this number in 12 of the last 14 matchups. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City. Memphis is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games and 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Grab the Grizzlies.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, February 3

Dave Price

Notre Dame +12

You want to fade favorites of 10.0-19.5 points when they have won eight consecutive games or more and are undefeated on the season as doing so has produced a 73-49 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to back road underdogs of 10.0 points or more that have failed to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games when they are up against an opponent that has covered the number in four of their last five games. That's because doing so has produced an 80-34 ATS mark the last five seasons. Notre Dame has been a solid investment on the road under coach Brey when listed as an underdog or pickem, going 53-36 ATS in the role. It is also 10-2 ATS under Brey in road games following a home win of three points or less. Syracuse is off a physically and emotionally draining home win over Duke and will have a tough time investing in this contest the same way. Notre Dame, on the other hand, will have no problem getting up for the No. 1 team in the country. Take the points.

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