Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Jack Jones

Seahawks/Broncos Under 48

Seattle's defense is the best in the league. It ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, and 1st in total defense at 282.5 yards per game. This is an excellent match-up for the Seahawks' defense considering their biggest strength is stopping the pass.

The key to slowing down Peyton Manning and the Denver offense is to stop their passing attack. The Seahawks have the perfect antidote as they rank 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 178 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt through the air.

While the Seattle defense is getting all the credit heading into this one, Denver's defense has somehow gone unnoticed. The Broncos have held each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less, and an average of 15.0 points per game during that span. Seattle has limited its last five opponents to 17 points or fewer, and an average of 11.6 points per game.

This is expected to be the coldest Super Bowl in the history of the NFL. The current forecast calls for a high temperature of 35 degrees and a low of 25 with a slight chance of snow. The previous record was held in the 1972 Super Bowl where it was only 39 degrees at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans.

The UNDER has gone 7-0 in Seattle's last seven games overall, while the UNDER is also 5-0 in Denver's last five games overall. The weather has gotten colder, and that's a big reason why both teams have been UNDER machines. The UNDER is 6-0 in Seahawks last six games versus a team with a winning record as well.

It's also worth noting that the biggest strength of the Broncos' defense is their run D, and Seattle's biggest strength offensively is its running game. So, the Broncos are equipped to stop Marshawn Lynch and company. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses as well. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Doug Upstone

William & Mary vs. James Madison    
Play: James Madison

On Super Bowl Sunday, Play On home teams like James Madison when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss they scored less than 60 points and are off a close road win by three points or less. What this free play system is telling us is this matchup is close accordingly to the oddsmakers and the home team is playing with added confidence and revenge. Teams likes James Madison are 22-3 ATS since 2009 in this spot.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Chase Diamond

William & Mary vs. James Madison
Play: James Madison

This game features the 12-8 W&M at the 8-13 James Madison. Big home game for James Madison here as they have won 2 games straight and finally have some momentum going into this game. 80% of the public are backing the other side here and yet this line has stayed at a pk.


Chase Diamond's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Carlos Salazar

Seattle vs. Denver
Play: Denver -123

What a great Super Bowl matchup we will have Sunday night in New Jersey. Carlos sees this game going the way of the Broncos as they just have to much fire power on offense for Seattle to handle. While the Seahawks have the top rated defense this season they haven't faced the likes Peyton Manning and his receiving core this year. Look for Peyton to stay away from Richard Sherman and the right side of the field and attack the lesser DBs on Seattle. Denver's defense is better than people know with the offense getting all the credit but they held New England to just about nothing on the ground last week and will look to contain Marshawn Lynch. Denver wins the Super Bowl and Peyton gets ring number two to further cement himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.


Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Jeff Scott Sports

The Denver Broncos come in at 15-3 on the yer and they got to the big game with wins over San Diego and New England. During the regular season the Broncos were the most prolific scoring offense in the history of the NFL as they put up 606 points on the year. The offense is led by Peyton Manning, who threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards, which are both NFL single season records. Manning has the luxury of throwing to a fine set of receivers. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons, while Wes Welker  had 87 catches and 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas also added in 65 catches and 12 TDs. Very tough to just pick one weapon to stop. The Broncos aren,t just about their passing game as they run the ball as well averaging 117.1 ypg on the ground for the year. The ground game is led by Knowshon Moreno, who ran for 1038 yards and 10 TDs on the year, while also catching 60 passes for 548 yards and another 3 scores. Offense was not a problem for this team this year, but the defense did have it's struggles, allowing pedestrian 24.0 ppg on 349 ypg this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 ppg on 269 ypg. Denver was much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 ypg on 3.9 ypc) than the pass (251 ypg on 6.7 ypa).

The Seahawks also come in with a 15-3 mark on the year and their path to te Super Bowl included wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. The Makeup of these teams is so different as the Broncos got here mostly on their offense, while the Seahawks are here mainly because of their top ranked defense. The Seahawks allowed just 14.4 ppg, 273.6 ypg overall and 172 ypg through the air, which were all tops in the league, plus they also ranked 8th in the league vs the run, allowing just 101.6 ypg on the ground this year. Oh yea, they also led the league in leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), whit Richard Sherman grabbing 8 of those picks to lead the league. The Seahawk offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 ypg on 4.3 ypc this season. Marshawn Lynch is the leader of this ground attack after putting up 1,506 yards on 4.3 ypc) with 15 TDs this year. In two playoff games this year he has run for 249 yards, 5.0 ypc and 3 TDs. The Seahawks can throw when they need to and Russell Wilson has been efficient, hitting 63% of his passes for 3357 yards, with 26 TDs to just 9 INTs. Wilson also helped out the ground game with 539 yards rushing at 5.6 ypc. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are Wilson's most targeted receivers, but he should have an added weapon return for this one as Percy Harvin is listed as probable for the game.

Pick:  Back and forth I have been going over this one and I feel that the Under is the way to go here. I know the weather is not supposed to be bad in this one, but there should be some win which will effect the passing of Peyton. The Broncos will still be able to move the ball, but this Seahawk defense doesn't give allot of quick scores. They make you work the ball down the field and that will be just fine by the Broncos, as playing ball control is just what the Broncos did down the stretch. We know that Seattle has to throw the ball to win this one and I expect them to do just that, but they will also run allot and that will keep the clock moving, which helps keep Peyton on the sidelines. I don't expect many big plays in the passing game for Seattle as that is not really their game, but they will use a ball conterol offense that works the ball down the field a little at a time. I know all about the inter-conference Overs that have happened this year, but these teams have had 2 weeks to prepare and I feel that will show up more on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle's last 7 games have all gone Under the total and I feel that this one will follow suit with a game that will put no more than 42 points on the board.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

River City Sharps

Wisc Milwaukee -2

This game is a rematch of one played back at Oakland on 1/8 where Milwaukee won 84-75. Oakland is coming off two straight wins while Milwaukee defeated Wright State last time out. A couple of numbers that really jump out while analyzing this game. First, Oakland is 1-12 away from home this season and 4-9 ATS in those contests. On the road, the Grizzlies shoot less than 40% from the field. They are scoring 67 ppg on the road while their defense is allowing 79 ppg. Rob Jeter's Milwaukee teams tend to get better as the season goes and the Panthers have struggled to score in the last five games. With that said, we like the Panthers at home as the short-priced favorite and think they hand Oakland another road loss.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Sam Martin

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics

This is the only game on today's NBA schedule, and after we backed Orlando as our free pick on Friday (won 113-102 as a six-point home favorite) against Milwaukee in a battle of two of the worst teams in the league, we'll fade them this afternoon. We stated in that handicapping report that we favor the home side when two of the weakest teams in the league meet up.

The reason is because those teams have a rare chance to win and tend to feed off the home crowd which also has their expectations up to an abnormally high level. That was the case for Orlando Friday, who's 51.8% shooting percentage was their highest since late December. Now it's Boston's turn to play a bit over their heads and beat up an Orlando squad that is just 3-21 straight up away from home this season.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Rocketman

Michigan @ Indiana
Play: Indiana +3

The Michigan Wolverines travel to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon. Michigan is 16-4 SU Overall this year while Indiana comes in with a 13-8 SU overall record on the season. Indiana is 46-5 SU overall at home the past 3 years including 11-2 SU at home this year. Indiana is beating teams by an average of 78.3 to 63.2 points at home this season. Indiana is 13-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at home vs Michigan since 1997. Indiana is 11-5-1 ATS last 16 games after a SU loss. Michigan is 5-16-1 ATS last 22 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana today!


Rocky Atkinson's Featured Package

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Frank Jordan

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Play:  Boston Celtics -6

Boston is 15-33 heading into this game, have lost four in a row and eight of 10, but are 9-15 at home. Orlando 13-35 on the season and have dropped seven of 10 entering this game. On the road Orlando has had their issues with just three wins in their first 24 games. Orlando hasn't won in over a month and a half on the road and in their last three road games lost by a combined 39 points. These two teams played twice back in early November with the Celtics winning both, but the last meeting in December Orlando squeaked out a victory by two points. Look for Boston to get back to winning as they get fat on one of the few teams with a worse record then they have. Play Boston

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Chris Jordan

KNOWSHON MORENO

5♦ Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards

Running back Knowshon Moreno will be a big part of the Broncos' attack in the Super Bowl, and if there's one thing this kid has, it's breakaway speed. He rushed for 1,038 yards this season, and in six of his 16 regular-season games, his longest rush of those contests would have eclipsed 15.5 yards.

If you total up all of his longest rushes, from all 16 regular-season games, the average longest rush from scrimmage is 14 yards. Now I know that falls short of the total we're aiming for, but the point is he has a respectably big average for what has been his longest rush in each game.

He broke one for 14 against the Chargers in the divisional round, and tore through the Patriots for a 28-yard scamper in the AFC Championship. If you add those two in the mix for his season-long average, the number goes up to 14.8 yards per longest rush. I could be dead wrong, but while everyone else is chilling in 40-degree weather, Moreno may just be warming up. Don't be surprised to see him bust a 20-yard run at some point.

RUSSELL WILSON

4♦ Over 1-1/2 Touchdown Receptions

Russell Wilson has struggled of late, if you want to call it that, but he now has one game to perform. He has one big stage in which he needs to put his best foot forward, and with receiver Percy Harvin back, the confidence level for the second-year pro quarterback goes up immediately.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these guys bring this prop over the posted number - meaning Wilson to Harvin two times in the end zone. The Seahawks' speedy receiver is going to be looked at as a difference maker against the Broncos.

Forget his season stats - they're worse off than Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard. Heck, he was on the field for a total of just 40 snaps. But that doesn't mean he can't have an impact in this game. Even if he isn't on the receiving end of any scoring strikes, he brings to life a passing game at the right time, and is the perfect immunization shot for Wilson to strong-arm a few into the end zone.

PEYTON MANNING

3♦ Over 3 Touchdown Receptions

Legacy schmegacy... Peyton Manning is trying to win a Super Bowl on Sunday, not get his bust into Canton, Ohio. Heck, that bust has already been made, his gold jacket much more assured than green jacket golfer Tiger Woods will ever wear again and that'll be on the first-ballot. No, this game is about Manning and the Broncos and the way they're going to win is by him doing what he does best - throwing the football.

My next prop, and the littler ones I have opinions on further down, may seem as if I'm contradicting that when I talk about the team's running game, but when you have a proposition on arguably one of the top five all-time best quarterbacks throwing more than three touchdowns, and the price is around +180, you have to invest.

Manning threw for three or more TDs in 11 of 16 regular-season games. In those 16 games, he threw 55 touchdown strikes, an average of 3.4 per game. And in nine of those contests he threw four or more touchdowns. He threw two in each of his playoff games, and quite frankly, I don't care he's facing the No. 1 defense in the league. Manning at this big a price to throw more than a few, I'm with it.

Additional Bonus Prop Bets:

2♦ Renee Fleming WILL wear gloves - Besides the fact it's going to be cold out there, this is a polished opera singer who has performed at Buckingham Palace and is extremely distinguished. The game could be played in Miami and I think she'd wear long, elegant gloves to her elbows.

2♦ There will be SAFETY in the game - There have been only eight safeties in 47 Super Bowls. Three of them since 2009. That's over the last five years, so why wouldn't you take a chance there could be one in this game, when you have the No. 1 defense playing?

2♦ Richard Sherman OVER 3.5 Tackles/Assists - And as you read the analysis for this, can't you hear Aloe Blacc's The Man blaring through Sherman's Beats By Dre? Seriously, the number is just 3.5 for the best defensive back in football, and that's combined tackles and assists. Sherman will be flying all over the field in this game. You have to play this one at a cheap price of -115.

1♦ Knowshon Moreno will score FIRST TD - Priced anywhere between 9- to 12-1, I think you're insane to ignore the price of a key component of the Broncos' offense, knowing they'll need to turn to their grinding game once they get close to the goal line. It's certainly worth a look.

1♦ Champ Bailey WILL INTERCEPT a pass - After 15 years in the NFL, it's bittersweet for Bailey, who realistically could retire with a ring finally if the Broncos win this game. After an illustrious career, if there is one game that will bring out his absolute best, isn't this a game you can see Bailey snatching a ball mid-air? At +350, I'll take a shot.

1♦ Knowshon Moreno OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards - Denver quarterback Peyton Manning will eventually have to shorten his vertical game, and with his best target for a run-after-catch being Moreno, it's easy to see him getting this number, potentially, on one play. Moreno on a couple of screen passes in the same drive will get you this total.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the UCLA Bruins as the road favorite in Corvallis against the Beavers of Oregon State.

UCLA has won and covered their last 3 in Pacific Twelve action, and they have had no trouble dominating in this series, winning 9 of the last 10 straight up, and going 15-5-1 against the spread the last 21 times these conference rivals have met.

With the Beavers on a 4-2 straight up run their last 6, Steve Alford will not allow his Bruins to sleep on the 12-8 Beavers.

Figure on this one staying close for a spell, but the Bruins are on a 16-4-1 spread run their last 21 lined road games, so in the end expect the Uclans to pull away for the road win and cover.

UCLA the play.

2♦ UCLA

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Boston Celtics over Orlando on Super Sunday as I believe they are ripe for a win over a struggling Orlando team that has won just three times in 24 tries on the highway.

Not only that, but the home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings while Boston has covered eight of the last 10 meetings... including in Orlando wins.

The Magic come in having dropped five of their last seven, including double digit losses recently at New Orleans, Toronto and Detroit... all while scoring less than 90 points.

Boston has actually been worse recently and yet Vegas gives them the 5-point advantage? Yeah, they see this game the same way I do.

The Celtics have lost four straight and seven of the last eight, and yet I really think they are in a very good position to win this game and they get the perfect opponent for it.

Take Boston as your free play of the day.

2♦ BOSTON

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Brad Wilton

Have to lay the lumber in the Queen City Sunday afternoon, as the Cincy Bearcats are rolling right now.

Cincinnati is off a very big upset win at Louisville earlier this week, and now come home to face the 11-10 Bulls of South Florida.

The Bearcats have won all 14 home games this year, and they are also 7-1 against the spread in their lined home dates this season.

South Florida sprung the home upset win over SMU last weekend, but that win was just their first in their last 5 outings.

Cincinnati has won the last pair of series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 series meetings overall. Included is a 61-54 win in Tampa in the middle of January in a game they were favored by -7 1/2 points in. True, a non-cover, but back at home on Sunday I expect Cincy to name it.

1♦ CINCINNATI

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Gabriel Dupont

My free play for today is on the Oregon State Beavers, catching points from UCLA, as I see value taking the points in this game.

What appears to be a mismatch in the Pac 12 tonight, I'm not convinced the Bruins will be focused on this game like they should be and believe the home underdog is the better play in this game.

Why the UCLA Bruins can cover this number - With a well-balanced attack, the Bruins have been defying odds most of the season. And with No. 1 Arizona losing for the first time this season yesterday, the Bruins will smell blood in the water, and will want to make a statement by coming out firing in this game. They have the talent to win and cover against any team in the nation.

Why the Oregon State Beavers can cover this game - Quiet as its kept, Oregon State has its best conference record through eight games, dating back to 1999. And the Beavers won here at Gill Coliseum two years ago, 87-84, to snap a 13-game losing streak in the series. The win was the first for Craig Robinson against UCLA and gave him victories against every team in the Pac-12. Confidence for this one will be brewing.

In conclusion, why Oregon State is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - As good as the Bruins are, and as impressive as they've been, the Beavers are no slouch and are very dangerous to any team in the Pac 12, heading into this final stretch of the season. With a win over UCLA, the Beavers will improve to 13-8 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12. It would also be the first time Oregon State is above .500 through nine Pac-12 games since that 1999 team also started 5-4 and would mark the first time Oregon State swept Southern Cal and UCLA in back-to-back visits to Corvallis since 1989-1990. The Beavers are one of the best shooting teams in the league, and they're going to keep this one close.

2♦ OREGON STATE

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Sean Michaels

Scored with Saturday's comp play as Oklahoma stayed within the number at Iowa State for the cover.

Back to football today with a play on the Under (48) when Seattle and Denver meet for the NFL championship.

The Seahawks gave up around 15 points a game on the road this season, just one more than their home yield. They enter having played under in seven straight, allowing no more than 19 points in any of those games.

Denver started the season by topping the total in eight straight games. But the Broncos closed with five straight Unders, allowing no more than 17 points in their last four games.

In a game where Seattle will milk the clock with Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson keeping the ball on the ground - and out of Peyton Manning's hands - time will be working against both teams in terms of potential scoring opportunities. This could be the type of game where you see long, time-consuming drives, perhaps no more than two for each team per quarter.

I also expect Denver to run the ball frequently today with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball softening up the Seattle front line in order to open the passing game for Manning.

2♦ DENVER-SEATTLE UNDER

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Jeff Scott Sports

Total Rushing Yards By Russell Wilson -- Over 30.5 (-145)

Russell Wilson has the ability to turn a broken play into a big play with his legs and with this being the Super Bowl there is no reason for him to hold back. The Seahawk staff should have some designed runs for him and then of course when a play breaks down he will take off for sure. He has the ability to gain this total on just one play. I see at least 60 yards rushing from him in this game.


1st Pass by Russell Wilson Will Be --- A Completion (-190)

The Super Bowl is a huge stage for anyone, let alone a young QB like Russell Wilson and I expect the Seattle coaching staff to come up with an easy safe pass attempt for his first pass to get him some confidence.


Will The Broncos Score In All 4 Quarters -- No (-225)

I do expect a ball control game from both and that means limited possessions for both teams. The Seattle defense has allowed just 14.4 ppg on the year and they haven't allowed a first quarter TD in forever. I don't expect the Broncos to move up and down on this team at all, which makes the chances of them not scoring in all 4 quarters very good.


Will The Seahawks Score A Touchdown In The First Quarter -- No (-165)

I just don't see this happening. The first quarter should be a feeling out process for both teams. Russell Wilson is a young QB on the biggest stage of all and the jitters will be there. I expect a very safe and conservative game plan by the Seattle staff in the first quarter so they can ease Wilson into the game. That should keep them out of the endzone in the first quarter.


First Reception in the Game Baldwin Vs Welker -- Welker (-185)

As I said Above, I expect a conservative game plan by the Seahwaks to start the game. If a pass play is called early it will be something safe, like to a back out of the backfield. On the other side we have Peyton Manning who should not have the Jitters and i can see a crossing patter for Welker right out the gate. Welker should get the first reception here.


First TD Pass in The Game Wilson vs Manning -- Manning (-215)

This one seems like stealing. Manning had 55 TD Passes on the year while Wilson had 26. The Seahawks will play conservative early and I think the number is the Broncos first score has been a TD in 13 of their games. The percentages of the Broncos getting a TD pass are so much great here and I will run with it.


Longest Rush From Scrimmage For Knowshon Moreno -- Under 15.5 Yards (-140)

This one is rather simple. The Seattle run defense is very tough and I just can't see Moreno going on a long jaunt vs them. Knowshon averaged 4.3 ypc on the year and isn't really known for the big run, while Seattle doesn't give up many big plays on the ground. Look for him to have an 8 or 9 yard run at best in this one.


Shortest Punt For Britton Colquitt -- Over 33.5 Yards (-115)

Colquitt may be the most rested player in the game after having very few punts in his last 2 games. Colquitt averaged 44.5 yards per punt this year and some may say that is because of punting in Mile High Stadium, but he also averaged 44.1 yards per punt on the road. I don't see him having a bad punt in this one. He is too consistent.


Total Receiving Yards Demaryius Thomas -- Under 75.5 Yards (-125)

Peyton Manning has too many weapons at his disposal to think that Thomas will have a run away game. Also the Bronco passing game will be going up against the top ranked pass defense in the league. Manning will spread the wealth and Thomas will not get nearly 80 yards receiving.


Total Completions By Peyton Manning -- Under 26.5 (-115)

Yes Peyton will look to throw the ball allot, but this is the top rated pass defense in the league that he will be facing. Peyton did average 28.3 completions per game this year, but Seattle allowed teams to complete just 19.3 passes per game. Denver will also need to run a bit more to loosen up that Seattle pass defense and that will take away some passing attempts by Peyton.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

EZWINNERS

Seattle Seahawks +2

This is the fifth time that the NFL's #1 ranked offense will face off against the NFL's #1 ranked defense and the top defense has won three out of those four match ups and I like that trend to continue in this game. Peyton Manning and the Broncos have had a great season and Manning was spectacular in breaking Tom Brady's single season touchdown record, but lets not forget that Manning has lost more big games than he has won in his career. Seattle's defense is legit. The Seahawks should be able to do what nobody has done so far in the playoffs and that is to get pressure on Manning in the pocket. Manning has not been sacked so far in the post season, but I expect Seattle to get pressure on him and remind everyone of what a statue he is in the pocket. Richard Sherman's comments about Manning throwing ducks has a lot of merit. The arm strength is not what it used to be for Manning, but its not much of a factor when you have all day to throw. Put pressure on him and those ducks aren't as accurate and against one of the best secondary's in the league they will become turnovers. The Colts used a similar defensive game plan during the regular season and made Manning and company look very bad with defensive players that are less skilled than the unit that Seattle puts on the field. On the other side of the ball, Denver has been pretty good against the run, but slowing down Marshawn Lynch will be a challenge. I also think Denver will struggle with the scrambling ability of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson who can make big plays with his arm and legs. Percy Harvin will also be a huge x factor for the Seattle offense. Harvin has been injured most of the season, but in the little time he did play in the playoff game against the Saints he made an impact and gave the defense something else to worry about. When I was in Vegas last year for the Ravens Super Bowl win shortly after the game I placed a future on Seattle at 12 to 1 to win this years Super Bowl. Usually I'm a big fan of hedging or trying to middle my bets, but that won't be the case here. Take the points.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Marty Otto

Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over

This line is all over the board offshore and I’m sure it is in Vegas as well. The best number I’ve seen offshore is 40.5 -115 at Heritage. I’ve also seen as high as 43.5 +100 at Bookmaker. Try to get the best number you can, you never know when that yard or half a yard will matter.

Doug Baldwin doesn’t get much in the way of national media attention and he is far from a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But he might just be Russell Wilson’s favorite target right now and I think that gives us an edge with this prop.

Baldwin has big play ability which can go a long way to helping us cash this bet. He posted a catch of over 20 yards in 13 games this year and had 10 games where he had more than 40 receiving yards. That includes his season high 106 yard effort against a tough 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. This week he takes a step down in competition against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked pass defense.

Percy Harvin’s return is the big story and I’m sure Seattle will try to get him involved. But I don’t think that fact is lost on the Broncos. I suspect Denver will be more worried about shutting down Harvin than the less hyped Baldwin which could well benefit us.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

Tony Bucca

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 & Under 48

Weather is good, no temperature or wind problems so this should be a slam dunk for Manning and Denver right? That's the public side. The Super Bowl is the most publicly bet game in the year. Almost 85% of the betting slips are made from people who don't ordinarily lay a bet down, or never do. Right now that's sitting at 62% for Denver. Line opened as a PK or in some places Seattle -1. There have been 5 instances in history where the #1 offense went up against the #1 defense and defense won 4 of those. I have always come from the side of defense. It happens all the time in college football and defense wins there too. I will not stray from my instincts. Seattle will win by 3 or so and it'll go under the posted total.

Blade
useravatar
Online
206939 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44223
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
274439
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.8
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3445
Newest User:
Laurrie Branum
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2207

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com