Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

John Ryan

Villanova at Georgetown
Prediction: Villanova

The simulator shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 6 or more points. Villanova survived in their OT win over Marquette and bounced back from a humiliating loss to Creighton. HC Wright has stated in the media interviews, his team needs to get better on the defensive end after allowing Creighton to shot 57% marking the highest allowed percentage in 6 seasons. They allowed 50% shooting to Marquette, BUT will find their defensive footing tonight against a weak offensive Georgetown team. The Hoyas have shot 37% over their last three games and simply do not have the personnel to matchup against Villanova for 40 minutes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-25 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2008. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VILLANOVA) that are excellent offensive team scoring >=76 PPG and are now facing an average defensive team allowing between 67 and 74 PPG and after a combined score of 165 points or more. SIM projects that Villanova will have between 40 and 44 total rebounds in this game. In past games, Villanova is a perfect 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Tony George

Villanova vs. Georgetown    
Play: Villanova -5½

I was all over Creighton on a free play Saturday against GT, and I am against them tonight again. The Hoyas have 2 key injuries that account for almost 20 ppg and some rebounding and it is killing them. Enter the Wildcats high paced offense ranked 23rd in the land against a below average defense with injuries on their roster, and this number is manageable.

One of the keys here is Georgetown’s offense has been hit hard, averaging 65 ppg their last 5 against an offense that in that same timespan has averaged over 81 ppg. I do not like going with teams off an OT win the previous game, which Nova was involved in a thriller at Marquette, but in this case I think they get all over a hated rival. Nova has been money on the road recently, covering 6 out of 8, and I they get the job done tonight with allot of offense that covers the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Steve Janus

Suns/76ers Over 213½

No team in the NBA plays at a faster pace than the Philadelphia 76ers (102.1). The Suns aren't far behind, as they come in T-8th with the Trail Blazers at 97.9. With neither team having reason to be motivated defensively in this non-conference matchup, I look for these two teams to fly over the total.

Not only do both teams love to play up-tempo, but they don't exactly play a whole lot of defense. Phoenix comes in allowing 100.9 ppg and the 76ers are giving up a miserable 109.5 ppg. Philadelphia also ranks in the bottom six in the league in defensively efficiency. You also have to like that these two teams played in Phoenix back in late December and combined for 216 points.

The OVER is 26-14 in the 76ers last 40 home games after 1 or more consecutive losses and 22-11 in their last 33 home games after going under the total in their previous game. We also see a long-term trend where the OVER is 181-141 in the Suns L322 games vs up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Jeff Alexander

Pittsburgh -4

Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a blowout victory in conference play of 20 points or more has resulted in a 32-11 ATS record since 1997 if they're up against a team that is coming off a road game where both it and its opponent scored 75 points or more. Duke has looked human on the road where it has losses to Notre Dame and Clemson. Pitt has been dominant at home where it is 12-0 this season. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in home games played 15 games or more into the schedule under Jamie Dixon versus teams that have won at least 80% of their games. Pitt has won these contests by an average of 6.0 points, which says plenty about how tough it is on its home floor.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Dave Price

Minnesota Timberwolves -3

Minnesota came up short in Portland Saturday, but it had won a tough one at Golden State the night before. It won the first and third quarters against the Trail Blazers but lost the second and fourth quarters, which makes sense in the second game of a back-to-back. Minnesota has a day of rest on its side for this matchup, and that should prove quite beneficial as it looks to bounce back. The Timberwolves have been outstanding in bounce-back spots at 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following defeat. The T-Wolves are also on an impressive 12-3-1 ATS run versus teams from the NBA Central division. The Bulls have won 10 of their last 13 games but have benefited greatly from playing a soft schedule. The offensively-challenged Bulls (92.9 ppg) will have a tough time hanging with the explosive T-Wolves (106.8 ppg) tonight. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the Western Conference and just 24-44 ATS at home the last two seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Joe Gavazzi

Pitt -4

Duke enters as underdog in the role of hunter, trailing Pitt by a game in the ACC standings. Widely criticized for their lack of defense and rebounding, the Blue Devils have played their best basketball of the year in the last 2 weeks. Duke enters on a 4 game win streak having covered the last 3 games by a total of 55 points, while allowing just 57 PPG. Tonight, however, they must face PG Robinson of Pitt, the nation’s best point guard, as measured by assist/TO margin. Panthers have the ability to match the Duke intensity, a deeper roster, and the better defense. Playing at The Pete, where Pitt is 59-11 SU 3+Y and 12-0 this year, won’t hurt. Strong preference for the hunted on their undefeated home court.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Bruce Marshall

Bruins at Islanders
Pick: Over

There has been an unmistakable pattern in recent Islanders games, with goals flying in from all angles. Indeed, 40 of them have been scored in the last five games, all "over" results, the same as in 7 of their last 8 and 9 of their last 11 games. New York has also blown 2-0 leads in each of the last two games, including a 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Meanwhile, Boston has been finding the back of the net a lot lately, including six times on Saturday at Philadelphia featuring two goals and two assists from still-productive veteran Jarome Iginla.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

AC Dinero

Villanova vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown +6.5

Arguably the best rivalry in the new Big East, Villanova comes in off a nice bounce back win at Marquette to take on a Georgetown team that is struggling badly, losers of their past 4 games. They will be short handed tonight, and probably the rest of the season with suspensions and injuries. Basically, their season may be on the line, outside of winning the Big East tournament, in this game. Look for them to play Nova tough at home in this game

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

SPORTS WAGERS

BROOKLYN -3½ over Toronto

The Raptors have not played in many big games this year or any year for that matter for a long, long time. Toronto is in first place in the Atlantic, just 1½-games ahead of Brooklyn. The Raps have a chance here to put a little more space between themselves and the Nets but we don`t see that happening, not without DeMar DeRozan and probably not with him either. This is a role the Raptors are unaccustomed to being in.

The Nets are red-hot. This team was a big favorite to win the Atlantic but a slow start resulted in the Nets falling far behind in the division. However, 10 wins in their last 11 games has seen the Nets shoot up the standings and the interesting part about that is their only loss over that occurred in Toronto on January 11. The Raps were a 9½-point choice in that game and covered but only because the game set up perfectly for Toronto that day. You see, Brooklyn had just defeated the Heat in OT the night before. It was also the Nets fifth game in seven days after defeating Golden State as well as Oklahoma State. It was a huge letdown spot and the oddsmakers knew it. The Nets are a cheap price here because once again they are in a letdown spot after yesterday’s emotional win in the return of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Boston. We’re not buying that argument. This game for Brooklyn is of far more importance than yesterday’s. These are veteran guys that have played in every situation and this one is much different than the one back in Toronto. The Nets were exhausted back then but they still had a 10-point lead late in the third quarter before they ran out of gas. Brooklyn figures to close it out in much better form here. DeRozen is a huge part of the Raps and with him in the lineup this number would be about the exact same or a half point higher. That’s something we can take advantage of.

Pass CBB

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

Harry Bondi

OKLAHOMA (+4.5) over Oklahoma State

All the trends and history are with Oklahoma tonight and so are we. Oklahoma State has not won in Norman since 2004, that's 9 straight losses in Norman for the Cowboys and Oklahoma has covered the last 4 of 5 and the last six out of 7 meetings between these bitter rivals. Oklahoma also comes into this game playing their best basketball of the year. The five Sooner starters are all averaging double figures in points and are shooting close to 50 percent from the field over the last 13 games. Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart went off the deep end on Saturday when he got in foul trouble which severely limited his minutes and production but we expect a great effort out of him tonight but it won't be enough as these two are really evenly matched with Oklahoma State averaging 84 and Oklahoma averaging 83.8 points per game. Home court is the difference for the 10th straight year. Take the Sooners over the Cowboys.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

NHL Predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +105

The Buffalo Sabres brokw up a 5 game losing streak with a 5-2 win in Columbus Saturday night. They were out shot 38-22 but managed to pull out a vcitory against a hot Blue Jackets team. Tonight will be a different story with the Eastern Conference's top team in the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins are coming off a bad effort in a 3-0 road loss in Dallas, and will look to return to form tonight vs the Sabres. Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 6 overall and are 36-14-2 on the season and 21-4-0 at home. The Sabres are just 14-29-7 on the year and 5-14-3 on the road. These two teams have met once this season in Pittsburgh with the Penguins winning that game 4-1 as they out shot the Sabres 35-21 and dominated start to finish. The Penguins rank 4th in the NHL scoring 3.15 goals per game, while Buffalo is last scoring 1.82 goals per game. The Sabres are just 1-5 in their lat 6 vs Eastern Conference opponents and 0-5 in their last 5 following a win. The Penguins are 42-10 in their last 52 home games, and 42-12 in their last 54 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Pittsburgh responds well after a bad loss going 51-25 in their last 76 games following a loss of 3+ goals. Pittsburgh has won 10 of these two teams last 14 meetings and 9 of 13 in Pittsburgh. I'm on the Penguins to win by at least a couple of goals here tonight at plus money.


Colorado Avalanche +111

Wow, the Winnipeg Jets do the improbable and knock the Blackhawks off 3-1. Chicago got on the board early within two minutes and it seemed like we were going to be able to cruise along last night. It wasn't to be, as the Jets are officially on fire under Paul Maurice. I am not sure they will be able to keep it up, but it is one big transition since earlier in the season. It was a wacky day all around, as the Devils and Rangers, yes the Devils and Rangers combined for 10 goals.

I had to scratch my head when taking a look at this line. I thought this line would have been of the -105 variety, but the Stars are posted as -120 favorites and the Avalanche are decent dogs at +111. The Avs can be a little erratic at times, but I think they are being short changed in this game. It is not like they are an awful road team or anything, coming in at 15-7-0-2 on the road. In fact, their road mark is a tad better than the Stars are at home, 13-8-2-3. Colorado also has an overall record of 31-14-2-3 compared to the Stars' 24-20-4-4 tally. I would consider the Stars of the average variety, with the Avs as a solid, good squad. The Avalanche should go on to make the playoffs and while I think they'll falter, they should be a quality team for years to come. Statistically, the Avs edge the Stars out as well, averaging 2.86 goals per game and 2.57 against. Dallas scores 2.85 a game and lets in an average of 2.87 goals. The Avalanche are 5-2 in their last seven games, while the Stars have been quite good as well, winning their last three games in convincing fashion. Prior to that, though, the Stars were stumbling, losing 9 of their last 10 games. I like the value with the Avalanche in this game, as they continue their turnaround season under head coach Patrick Roy.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 27

OC Dooley

Timberwolves -3.5

At most offshore locations Minnesota opened as a one-and-a-half point road favorite and that figure has since risen even though statistically tonight’s game favors Chicago who is having an outstanding month of January winning 10 of 13 chances overall.  In addition the Bulls have owned the T-Wolves in this series winning SEVEN consecutive meetings by a whopping average of 13 points per contest.  To add even more fuel to the fire Minnesota for the entire season to date in ROAD game when scoring less than 109 points has been a disaster (1-11) and tonight they face an excellent Bulls defense that is permitting on average below 93 points per contest.  In a game where the oddsmakers have made a major statement I am siding with favored Minnesota

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