Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2)

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Denver at Phoenix
The Nuggets come into Phoenix tonight with a 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 games versus the Suns. Denver is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1)

Game 801-802: LA Lakers at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 107.879; Toronto 126.979
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 19; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 9; 204
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-9); Over

Game 803-804: Boston at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.798; Orlando 109.943
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2); Under

Game 805-806: Milwaukee at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 109.379; San Antonio 123.131
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 16; 199
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+16); Under

Game 807-808: Sacramento at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.483; Oklahoma City 126.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 211
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-8); Over

Game 809-810: Denver at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.482; Phoenix 117.344
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1); Over

NHL

Tampa Bay at Carolina
The Lightning come into Carolina today carrying a 5-0 record in their last 5 road games against the Hurricanes.Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1 1/2.Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105).

Game 51-52: Boston at Chicago (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.891; Chicago 12.187
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under

Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.043; Carolina 10.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Over

Game 55-56: Washington at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.842; NY Rangers 10.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Minnesota at Iowa
The Hawkeyes host the Golden Gophers, who come into the contest with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games. Iowa is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawkeyes favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-9)

Game 811-812: Rutgers at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 56.834; Houston 59.571
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 5
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+5)

Game 813-814: Wright State at Cleveland State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 53.215; Cleveland State 63.177
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-5)

Game 815-816: Minnesota at Iowa (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.660; Iowa 79.580
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 15; 153
Vegas Line: Iowa by 9; 142
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-9); Over

Game 817-818: Louisiana Tech at Southern Mississippi (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 70.047; Southern Mississippi 64.296
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 6
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3)

Game 819-820: WI-Green Bay at Illinois-Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 62.898; Illinois-Chicago 49.783
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 13
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-10 1/2)

Game 821-822: Bowling Green at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.141; Western Michigan 54.155
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 3
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+6 1/2)

Game 823-824: Towson at College of Charleston (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 54.056; College of Charleston 54.284
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 3
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+3)

Game 825-826: Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 52.582; Notre Dame 71.186
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 18 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 10 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-10 1/2); Under

Game 827-828: Oregon at Oregon State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 71.656; Oregon State 61.307
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 10 1/2; 167
Vegas Line: Oregon by 2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-2); Over

Game 829-830: Canisius at Monmouth (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 53.420; Monmouth 53.580
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Canisius by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+3 1/2)

Game 831-832: Siena at Iona (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 54.150; Iona 57.214
Dunkel Line: Iona by 3
Vegas Line: Iona by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+10 1/2)

Game 833-834: Hofstra at SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 43.194; SMU 69.151
Dunkel Line: SMU by 26
Vegas Line: SMU by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-17 1/2)

Game 841-842: Bucknell at Army (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 51.256; Army 51.676
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Army by 3
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3)

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle SeahawksSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco 49ers +3½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Third time is a charm between these two hated rivals in the NFC West because the winner of this one goes to the Super Bowl A split on the season, one a blowout in here with Seattle winning hands down, and then a hard fought battle in San Fran where the Niners managed a 2 point win. A Battle of Titans here for lack a better term, but there are some clear cut keys here that have me thinking the wrong team is favored.
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Look no further than the box score from last weeks New Orleans game for Seattle. The Saints had over 400 yards total, eclipsing the Seahawks 277 yards. Amazing the Hawks has just 13 first downs in that game, and the Saints had 25. Seattle's offense has sputtered their last 4 games, and they rely on trick plays in many spots to make big plays, and their downfield passing game is average at best.
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The value in the line is the hook, over 3 points here in what should be a great game. San Fran built to win championships, good QB, good coach, stout defense with good LB's and a pass rush, a great running game, awesome tight end playmaker and 2 WR's who could start for anyone. All the elements make them the better team. San Fran also has experience in this spot, and Kaepernick is 4-1 as a starter in the post season.
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I am very aware of Seattle's home field advantage, the biggest in the NFL, but the 12th man does not play the game and I see value in this line on the dog. I would almost sprinkle a little on the moneyline here with San Fran as well.

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Chad MatthewsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco / Seattle Over 39.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers and Seahawks both are averaging around 25 points per game on offense during the regular season. The 49ers are allowing opponents 16.8 points per game, where the Seahawks are only allowing opponents 14.5 points per game on defense. These two teams met up twice this season, with both teams collecting wins at home. Typically this game would be attractive with the under, but both of these teams offenses are playing well. Seattle plays well at home, averaging 29 points per game. The 49ers play well on the road, putting up 26 points per game average. Take the over 39.5 points here and expect just enough offense to take this total over. I am seeing the field very well right now as I have gone 32-16 my last 48 football selections and 10-2 my last 12 5-Unit or higher plays. I will have a 6-Unit NFL Playoff game of the week that I am 100% certain is going to cash in big time! Do not miss out on my 6-Unit NFL play of the week this Sunday afternoon.

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EZWINNERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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49ers +3.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite the fact that the Seahawks have won the last two meetings against the 49ers played in Seattle by a combined 55 points, this line is still hanging around a field goal as it was in those last two meetings. I really like San Francisco to pull off the win, which would be only the second home loss for Seattle in two years. The Seattle Legion of Boom defense is one of the best in the league, but they have shown some weakness against the run and Arizona and even New Orleans last week have shown the blue print of how to beat them. Arizona was able to run the ball and then hit some play action passes. The Saints running game just wasn't quite good enough to get the job done and the rainy weather killed Drew Brees and the passing game. San Francisco's running game can have success in this match up. The style of offense that gives the Seahawks problems is a run oriented attack that uses multiple tight end sets like the 49ers utilize. I expect the San Francisco to play much better than they did in the earlier meeting. Look at the adjustmenst that the Saints made after being killed on Monday night just over a month ago. I believe that Seattle peaked a little to early and now there is no team is hotter in the NFL right now than the Niners, who have won eight straight games and have most of their weapon's healthy for this game. Seattle's offense really concerns me. Over the past five games Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for more than 200 yards only once. The wide receivers are not getting good separation and Wilson has not been sharp with his accuracy. Not the way you want to be playing when facing one of the best defense's in the NFL. Seattle needs to figure out what is causing their offense to sputter, because the 49ers front seven are going to be keyed on stopping Lynch and the running game which will lead to many 3 and outs if the passing game doesn't pick things up quickly. I do have future bets from the summer pending on Seattle to win the NFC and the Super Bowl, but I don't think they get there. Play San Francisco plus the points and on the moneyline.

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WunderdogFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New England at DenverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New England +6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game features two future Hall of Fame QBs with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. It's the ninth time in the last thirteen years that at least one of these QBs has played on Championship Sunday. Expectations are high for a great game and I believe we will get one. The Patriots have had an injury-riddled season, losing Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes, Tommy Kelly, Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork among others. That's on top of losing Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker in the offseason. Despite those challenges, the Pats are 13-4 and one win away from another Super Bowl. It's a testament to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Next man up. Thanks to the departures and injuries, New England went through their first eight games with an offense that was a shell of their former selves and they were quite pedestrian, scoring just 22.4 points per game. Contrast that to a loaded Denver offense that started by averaging 42.8 points per game in first half of the season. But Denver's offense has cooled some with a big second-half decline of 11 points per game. While Denver has been going south, New England has been heading up. The Pats finished their last nine games averaging 34.2 points per game, actually besting the Denver second half of the season offense by 2.3 points per game. One can argue, based on the last nine games, the New England offense is playing better coming into this game. Bill Belichick has once again put an unknown player in a role to succeed as he has seemingly done since he first walked the sidelines. LeGarrette Blount most forget, was a 1000 yard rusher for Tampa Bay in 2009-10, generating 5.0 yards per carry. He then all but disappeared as an apparent one-year wonder, until resurrected by Belichick this year. Blount was given a big role vs. Buffalo in the season finale, where he delivered 334 total yards. He was also the difference maker in the playoff game vs. Indianapolis, running wild for 166 yards on 24 carries, and four touchdowns. His two-game combined rushing log reams 48 carries for 355 yards and six TDs. That is 7.4 yards per carry. Will he be the key this weekend? Maybe or maybe not. Heck, Belichick might have Brady throw it 40 times this game. The point is, it's unclear where New England will hit you, making defensive preparation difficult. Peyton manning started the season in invincible fashion. But, the Broncos' offense only topped the 37 point mark (6 points below their first half average) one time. I'm not trying to make the Denver offense sound bad. It set records this season. But, defenses have wised up to some extent and the last nine game average was 31.9 ppg, a full 11 points less. That's very good, but no longer in rarified air. Without the Tennessee game, it dips to under 30 per game over that stretch. Peyton Manning was passing for 8.77 yards per attempt in the first eight games to 7.70 in the last nine - a full yard plus less efficient. The Patriots are 45-26-3 ATS as a dog in their last 74 such games. In the Belichick era, they are 20-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points! They are also 29-13 ATS under the Hoody when the total is set in the 50s. Dating back to last season, the Pats are a perfect 6-0 vs. high powered offenses like Denver's (teams that average 375+ yards per game). And, Brady has bested Manning in 10 of 14 meetings. Manning owns a 10-11 mark in the playoffs while Brady is 18-7. Bill Belichick has always found a way to frustrate Manning and take him out of his comfort zone. I believe he will do that again in this game. Peyton Manning vs. Brady & Belichick getting points? Who you gonna trust? I'm taking the Pats.

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Carlo Campanella

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos    
Play: Denver Broncos

Don't make too much of Denver struggling to a 24-17 victory over San Diego last weekend, as the Broncos struggled in all 3 games this year against their AFC West rival and the game WAS NOT as close as the score indicated, as Denver dominated the first 3 quarters and held the Chargers to 259 total offensive yards! Now that host a New England team that beat them 34-31 back on November 24th, but the Broncos lead that game 24-0 at Halftime and slipped on defense the 3rd and 4th quarters before losing by a late field goal. Denver is 8-1 SU at home this season and expect them to not lose back-to-back games at home to the same team in less than 8 weeks. With the Patriots winning the first meeting, we'll get a fair line on this Sunday Playoff battle, so lay the points.

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Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle SeahawksSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco 49ers +3½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I just feel its time for the 49ers to get overt he hump here. Seahawks look super vulnerable right now after losing at home to the Cardinals and really struggling on offense over the last few weeks where they have only averaged 246 yards a game. Arizona wrote the recipe to beating them at home and Colin Kaepernick has many more offensive weapons than Russel Wilson does and the 49ers defense is finally all healthy and playing better than it has all season. 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a winning team and have a lot of unfinished business this year. I'm 18-8-1 ATS Career on NFL POD's and 12-3 on MAX PLAYS which I have in the Patriots/Broncos game backed with a full in depth analysis. Make sure you check it out!


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DENVER -5½ over New EnglandFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We could easily make a case for either side here, as it’s not difficult to get behind the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches this league has ever seen with one of the sharpest football minds in history. He is calm, he knows how to plug holes and he knows how to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. The way in which New England systematically broke down the Colts last week was a sight that is still fresh in the minds of everyone who watched it, especially those that wagered on the Colts and ripped up their tickets. Indy never stood a chance and now this Patriot team is being offered up what seems like far too many points. At least that’s what we’ve been hearing all week…….“Oh man, you can’t give Brady this many points”. “Brady owns Manning”. “New England can win this game without the points”. “100%, you have to take the points”. That’s all we’ve been hearing since the number came out. In fact, this number came out at -7 for a brief few moments on Sunday and one oddsmaker was quoted as saying, “We put out a bad number”. Yeah, ok. Don’t believe that for a hot second. The oddsmakers don’t put out a bad number for a game that is going to be one of the most wagered on events ever. The only thing missing from that quote was the chuckle under his breath.
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We’re not going to waste your time and break down the X’s and O’s. You’ve already seen it or heard it broken down enough times to make you puke already and you’ll get more of it on Sunday with Curly, Larry and Moe. If Shannon Sharpe takes the marbles out of his mouth, you may even hear him muffle out an opinion. In any event, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the intangibles that affect the outcome when two evenly matched teams hook up. That aside, one should never ignore what the line is telling us and when something looks this good (New England plus the points), red flags should go off in your head. Had this game been played before New England defeated Indy and Denver struggled against San Diego, the masses wouldn’t be on the pooch. The public’s over-reaction to last week’s results has us backing the team that the oddsmakers don’t want us on because that’s usually the right side. So, while New England was preparing for the Colts, Peyton Manning has probably spent 16 hours a day for two weeks preparing to face New England’s weak defense. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

Andre Gomes
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San Francisco 49ers +3.5
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In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the "12th man advantage" for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season's that includes two complete "beatings" vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h's games at home.
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However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.
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I really don't trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG's in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season - only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA's running game isn't that "strong" - Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.
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SF's defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB's in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.
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The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…
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I won't waste many words talking about SEA's defense - they are awesome!!!
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However, SF's offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore's & Kaepernick's legs in the running game.
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SEA's thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball - one TO in their last 5 games!
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I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won't be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I'm taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Denver/ New England Over 56.5: This will not be a ball control game. the Patriots will run some but that will only set up for deep passes downfield as they look to take advantage of a Denver secondary that is missing Chris Harris. This team has really struggled when he has been off the field and last week when he got hurt, the Chargers put all 17 of their points on the board with him off the field. I expect Brady to have a field day with this defense. On the other side we have a bronco team that was the highest scoring team in the history of the NFL and they put up 37.8 ppg on their home field. The Broncos played a conservative game vs the Bolts and it almost cost them. They won't do that here as i look for Peyton to air it out all day long and wok on a Patriot defense that was 18th in the league vs the pass. Manning only threw for 150 yards in the earlier loss to the patriots, so I would look for him to bounce back from that effort. This one should be a fun one and the weather should be great as well, as both teams put up at least 28 points in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco/ Seattle Over 40: Last week I had the Over in the San Francisco/ Carolina game and it took two goal line stands for me to lose that one. I say that won't happen here. The San Francisco offense has been pretty good down the stretch, scoring 23 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games. The one game that they didn't was vs this same Seattle team, but I look for Harbaugh to make some changes to get more points on the board. You have to open up the offense because there is no tomorrow if you don't. Obviously it wont be easy vs this defense, but the Niners put up 19 in the last meeting and if they had turn just one of their 4 FG's to a TD they would have eclipsed 20 points. Seattle has played well at home on offense, averaging 28.4 ppg on their home field and I also expect them to hit the 20's in this one. I expect a non-conservative game from both teams as we get at least 45 points scored in this one.

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Iowa Hawkeyes -9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the best teams in the country in 2013-14. They returned basically everyone from last year and have opened the season at 14-3. A closer look at their losses shows that this team really could be undefeated right now.
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Iowa's three losses have all come on the road this season against Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85) and Wisconsin (71-75) by a combined 12 points. You'll find all three of those teams nationally ranked inside the Top 25.
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The Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 at home this season with all but two of those wins coming by double-digits. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 28.9 points per game inside Carver Hawkeye Arena.
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The home team won both meetings last year, including a 72-51 home victory for Iowa. Where the Hawkeyes will have a big edge here is in rest considering they last played a week ago on Sunday in a 10-point win at Ohio State. Minnesota also beat Ohio State, but it played at home and on Thursday, so it won't be nearly as prepared for this one.
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Iowa is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after giving up nine or less offensive rebounds last game. The Golden Gophers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Hawkeyes are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 games following a win. Iowa is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 home games. The Hawkeyes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Iowa Sunday.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto RaptorsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Toronto RaptorsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lakers have been horrible of late, but still, they pulled out the win on Friday night at Boston. Even with Rondo back for the Celtics, Boston gave up the final 11 points of the game after leading 104-96. This game was more a testament to just how bad the Celtics are rather than how good the Lakers played. Even with the win, the Lakers are 2-12 S/U their last 14 and 4-5-1 ATS their last 10. The defense has been horrible, allowing over 100 points in seven straight and 120 or more in four of those games. Now the Lakers face a very good Toronto club. The Raptors have won 10 of their last 13 S/U and bettors have cashed in 11 times in the last 12 Toronto plays. The one time these clubs met this year (in LA) the Raptors cruised to a easy win, 106-94. That makes four straight covers by the Raptors over LA dating back to last season and seven of the last eight. Additionally, the Raptors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 overall games and 5-2 their last seven when their opponents allows 100 or more points. Little doubt the Raptors will get 100 or more here. I wouldn't be surprised by another 120 point outburst by a Lakers' opponent. LA won't win many more games and even though we'll have to lay well into the double-digits, that should be no problem for Toronto here on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

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Minnesota vs. IowaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Minnesota +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The main events are on the gridiron today, but there’s a pretty good warmup act taking place in the Big 10 as Minnesota goes to battle with Iowa.
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The Hawkeyes have three losses but they’re really only a few baskets away from being 17-0. There’s really not a discernible weakness on this team, and Iowa certainly has the makeup of a team that could be playing deep into March Madness, and perhaps all the way to the Final Four.
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Minnesota isn’t getting nearly as much attention, but don’t sleep on the Golden Gophers. Aside from a really flat effort in a meaningless tournament game with Arkansas in late November, this Minnesota squad has been right there in every game. The 14-4 record is outstanding, but they could just as easily be 16-2.
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The scheduling doesn’t really offer much of an edge either way. Each team is off a very important win. The Gophers impressed in their win over Ohio State, and have Wisconsin on deck. The Hawkeyes have had a little extra prep time, having enjoyed a full week off since their own win over the Buckeyes, but they also have a huge date at Michigan coming up next.
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There might be a shade more incentive on the Minnesota side here. That’s not to suggest Iowa will overlook this opponent. But the Gophers aren’t commanding the attention that a few of their Big 10 brethren are getting, and that can be a powerful motivational tool.
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Iowa should win this game. They’re the better team, and they’re playing at home. The number actually is right about where it ought to be based on the respective power rankings of the two combatants. But off what I’ve seen of this Gophers entry, the more I’m becoming convinced they’re good enough to make life tough on anyone they face, including Iowa. I believe the right move today is to take the points with Minnesota.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

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Patriots at BroncosFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 57FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Of the last 16 times that an NFL team with a win percentage of at least 75% has come off an ATS win to face an opponent with a winning record, all but two have gone Under the total. The Broncos and Patriots defenses have given up a total of 49 and 44 points, respectively, over each of their past three games combined. I’m not convinced that either team is going run with as much success as is being predicted: The Patriots began December by rushing for 88, 87 and 96 yards against the Texans, Browns and Dolphins, respectively, none of which stop the run particularly well. I take the 142-yard performance the following week at Baltimore with a grain of salt—as that Ravens team proved over the season’s final two weeks, it, like Miami, wanted nothing to do with a potential playoff berth. In New England’s past two games, not only were Buffalo and Indianapolis two of only seven teams to allow more than 2,000 rushing yards during the regular season, but those games were played on wet turf: Wet turf favors a running game, particularly a one-cut power scheme, because the offense is acting while the defense has to react. Denver, meanwhile, comes into this one having given up 87, 64 and 65 rushing yards over its past three games. Strange as it sounds, I think the Denver defense is actually more well-rounded and arguably more effective without Von Miller, who doesn't get enough blame for being a liability against the run, mainly because he's simply disinterested in anything aside from rushing the passer. I'm not saying to discount the New England running game entirely, but the matchup of New England running game vs. Denver run defense isn't as lopsided as it might seem at first glance. It’s the perfect recipe for a game to go Under the total, especially with a total this high. The media is understandably hyping this game to be about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but I expect it to be more about each team trying to control the ball, and for neither team to get into the 30s.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

Jimmy Boyd

Southern Miss -2

The better team playing at home and laying such a small number makes Southern Miss an easy call in this matchup. Louisiana Tech has played a soft schedule recently. They had a big road win over Oklahoma, but have been a double-digit favorite in their last three games, and those three opponents have a combined 26-30 record on the season. That ends today in this matchup with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have a 15-3 record, and with home court advantage I think they easily pick up a win over the Bulldogs.

Statistically the Golden Eagles have several key advantages. On defense they are surrendering a mere 57.3 points per game at home. They will easily be one of the best defensive teams the Bulldogs have faced recently. On the offensive end of the court Southern Miss averages 80.1 points per game at home, so they should have no problem keeping pace with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldog’s opponents have surrendered an average of 75.3 points per game, so I think Louisiana Tech’s offensive statistics are very misleading. Louisiana Tech will also be without their leading scorer, Raheem Appleby, and that will prove to be too much to overcome against a great team like Southern Miss.

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Western Mich. -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Connar Tava, David Brown, Austin Richie and Shayne Whittington are all capable of big games inside the MAC.  Those are your leaders for a Western Michigan team that is good enough to beat any MAC opponent on any given day.  I'm feeling a low scoring game where the Broncos outscore Bowling Green by 8-14 points in this 2:00 PM EST game.  Bowling Green has a solid Defense but Western Michigan should be able to keep the Falcons off balance and make more plays on the offensive end of the action.  The last home game for WMU was a double digit win over Toledo.  I think the Broncos could have another game like that in this match-up.  Bowling Green struggles to score at times and if they have any mini drought in this game the Broncos could pull away early.

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Boston Celtics vs. Orlando MagicFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boston Celtics -2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Celtics have won the last 8 in the series vs Orlando and a win here earlier in the year as a 5 point dog against an Orlando team that was playing much better than they are now. Rondo is back and that should give the Celtics some shock value enthusiasm for a few games. There is a solid system in this game that plays against rested home dogs like Orlando that are off a home dog loss and failed to cover while scoring 100 or more and allowing 110 or more, vs an opponent off a home spread loss while also scoring 100 or more. These home teams are 2-9 straight up and to the spread. The Magic are on a 10 game losing streak and are 1-14 off a loss of 10 or more points, 2-12 after allowing 105 or more and they have lost 21 of 27 when playing with revenge. Look for Boston to get this one.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 19

Nick Parsons

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic    
Play: Orlando Magic +2

These team have played twice this year and Boston has won both, both SU and ATS. This is a legitimate double-revenge scenario for the home side tonight.

Celtics' guard Rajon Rondo returned to action on Friday and promptly lost 107-104 to the Lakers. Rondo's been out of action since tearing his ACL back on January 25th, 2013 and we can expect him to struggle for the first few games until he works himself back into NBA shape.

The C's have been pretty terrible of late, allowing an average of 104.3 points in losing 13 of their last 15; also note that Boston has lost eight-straight on the road (and note that Boston is just 5-7 ATS this year when playing the role of favourite).

Orlando is a pretty horrible team as well, but there's no question it will be anxious to snap the Celtics' dominance in this series, having not beaten Boston since Christmas of 2010.

The Magic most recently lost 111-101 to Charlotte on Friday (note though, that contest was only two days removed from a triple OT loss to the Bulls).

A couple of horrible teams going head to head tonight, but I feel the motivational factors working in favor of the home side will turn out to be the difference in the final outcome.

Consider a second look at Orlando in this one.

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