NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4) at CAROLINA (12 - 4) - 1/12/2014, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO (10 - 7) at DENVER (13 - 3) - 1/12/2014, 4:40 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO vs. CAROLINA
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games   
Carolina is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
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SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-6-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
Denver is 6-10-4 ATS in its last 20 games when playing San Diego


San Francisco at Carolina
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 10-0 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival

San Diego at Denver
San Diego: 19-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
Denver: 16-30 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games


San Francisco @ Carolina

The 49ers are looking the avenge a 10-9 home loss to Carolina back on November 10th. Defenses dominated in that one with a combined 401 yards of total offense and San Francisco struggled mightily on 3rd downs converting just 2 of 13 in that game. The 49ers are 7-4 ATS when playing with revenge, they’re 34-18 ATS overall, 18-7-1 ATS on the road, 10-4 ATS when playing in the favorite role and 27-8-1 ATS versus non-divisional opponents including 14-2 ATS on the road. Carolina is 11-1 straight up the last 14 after starting the season 1-3 and the Panthers have won 7 straight at home. Carolina is 7-1 straight up and ATS at home this season, 9-3 ATS versus NFC opponents, 23-12 ATS when playing on grass and 7-3 ATS in the playoffs. Note Carolina is 13-3 ATS the last 16 against San Francisco.

San Diego @ Denver

These two teams split the regular season with the road team winning each time. Denver’s 28-20 win over the Chargers in San Diego on November 10th was nearly indentical to the Chargers 27-20 win in Denver on December 12th when they snapped the Broncos 14 game home winning streak. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 7-3 ATS overall in the underdog role this year, 8-3-1 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS in playoff games. The Broncos are a dynamite 15-1 ATS when playing after a bye, 25-12 ATS when playing on grass, 21-11 ATS when playing in the favorite role, 15-4 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points and 6-2 ATS the last 8 playoff games at home. Note the underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS the last 5, the road team is 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 and San Diego has been money in this series with a 11-3-2 ATS record versus the Broncos including 8-1-2 ATS in games played in Denver. On a very curious note did you know that the Philadelphia Eagles first home opponent of the season has won the last 4 Super Bowls and that team this year was the San Diego Chargers.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

When 49ers and Panthers collide at Bank of America Stadium Sunday NFL handicappers knowing both teams play great defense will eye the 'Under'. Points will be at a premium. 49ers are allowing 5.1 yards/play on a 7th ranked pass protection (221.0), 5th-ranked run defense (95.9). Panthers are giving  up 5.3 yards/play on a 6th ranked pass protection (214.3), 3rd ranked rushing defense (86.9). The number crunching machine tells us two teams allowing =<5.5 yds/play with a total =<45 produced a sparkling 17-41 O/U. The database also chips in - 49ers are 3-7 O/U, Panthers 3-6 O/U when holding opponents at 5.5 or less yds/play. Panthers are on a 1-8 O/U stretch, 1-6 O/U vs a team with a winning record, 2-6 O/U at home this year, 49ers 1-4 O/U in playoff road games, 4-6 O/U vs a team with a winning record.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Denver looks to make amends for last year’s playoff disaster against Baltimore and settle a score with San Diego for handing Broncos' the only blemish on home field during regular season (7-1, 5-2-1 ATS). Broncos' a very profitable team this season (10-5-1 ATS) behind it's record-setting offense racking up 37.9 points on 457.3 total yards/game plenty of reason to side with Manning and company. Although Denver won't let their long-time AFC West rivals spoil the party the harsh reality is that Broncos' defense allowing 24.9 points/game makes laying the hefty points a dicey proposition. Ten points is a lot in a divisional game and even more so in a single-elimination tournament. Could be a good spot for San Diego. The Bolts are 4-0-1 ATS last five taking 8.5 or more points, 10-5-1 ATS last 16 meetings, 6-1-1 ATS last 8 encounters in Denver. A final betting nugget to consider. Manning is 1-8 ATS as favorite against San Diego including 0-2 in second season.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

Conference Semifinals

49ers (13-4) @ Panthers (12-4) — Carolina is a home underdog against a team they beat on the road, plus they had bye last week; think Rivera played the “no respect” card this week? Panthers (+6) won 10-9 at Candlestick back in Week 10, shutting 49ers out in second half, holding them to 2-13 on 3rd down in game where both sides completed exactly 50% of its passes. Carolina started season 1-3, then finished it 11-1; they’re 5-0-1 as home favorites this year and were 10-point favorites in the push. 49ers are on road for third straight week; they won their last seven games overall, were held to 9 or less points in three of their four losses. Niners are 4-5 overall in Charlotte, losing 31-14/23-20 in last two, last of which was in ’10. Last SF win here was 25-22 in OT in ’01, last year these teams were NFC West rivals. Key for Panthers is getting WR Smith back on field; he is the key element of their offense- bye week had to help there. #2 NFC seeds won/covered this game last four years; NFL-wide, #2 seeds are 5-1 vs spread in this game the last three years.

Chargers (10-7) @ Broncos (13-3) — San Diego won last five games to get here, one of which was Thursday night win on this field in Week 15; they’ve won four of last five visits to Mile High City- they outrushed Denver 177-18 in the game here, 131-84 in the Week 10 game, when Denver (-7) won 28-20 at Qualcomm, the day Manning tweaked his ankle in last 2:00 of game. San Diego is 5-4 on road this year with only one loss (27-17 at Oakland in Week 5) by more than four points- they’re 6-3-1 vs spread as underdogs, 3-1-1 on road. Broncos are 7-1 at home this year, 6-2 vs spread, with all seven wins by 10+ points- Charger loss three weeks ago was their most recent home game. Charger coach McCoy was Denver’s OC for two years, so he has to have at least a little insight into what makes Manning’s offense click. Over last eight years in NFL, #1 seeds are 7-9 SU in this round, 4-12 vs spread. Over last decade, AFC #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round; Broncos (-9) lost this game at home to the Ravens LY, 38-35.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

Sunday Divisional Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

49ers (-1, 41½) at Panthers

San Francisco: 13-4 SU, 11-5-1 ATS
Carolina: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS

The 49ers are the lone road favorite this weekend in the playoffs, as San Francisco will be heading to warmer weather on Sunday with a trip to Charlotte. Jim Harbaugh's club is seeking its third consecutive conference title game, as the Niners took care of business on the road last week in frigid Green Bay.

San Francisco won its seventh straight game this past Sunday, nipping Green Bay, 23-20 on a late Phil Dawson field goal to advance to the divisional round. The Niners pushed as three-point road favorites, as Colin Kaepernick won his third postseason game after taking over as the starting quarterback permanently midway through the 2012 season. Kaepernick threw for 227 yards and rushed for 98 yards, leading San Francisco to its fourth consecutive win away from Candlestick Park.

The Panthers started the season at 0-2 after close losses to the Seahawks and Bills, but Carolina went on a tear in the final 14 games with a sterling 12-2 record. Ron Rivera's team is riding a seven-game winning streak at Bank of America Stadium, including victories over the Patriots and Saints. In 11 of the last 12 contests, the Panthers have allowed 20 points or less, while going 8-1 to the 'under' the past nine games.

Carolina traveled to San Francisco in Week 10 and limited the 49ers to three field goals in a 10-9 triumph as six-point underdogs. The Niners built a 9-0 advantage prior to the only touchdown in the game, as DeAngelo Williams rushed for a 27-yard touchdown before the half to cut the deficit to 9-7. Graham Gano's 53-yard field goal in the fourth quarter put the Panthers up for good, as the Carolina defense limited San Francisco to 151 yards.

Cam Newton is playing in his first career playoff game for Carolina, as the Panthers are in the postseason for the first time since 2008. As a number one seed in the NFC, Carolina fell apart in a 33-13 home defeat to eventual conference champion Arizona, as the Panthers have won two of three games played at Bank of America Stadium in franchise history ('96 and '03 against the Cowboys).

The 49ers are 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS under Harbaugh in the postseason, dating back to 2011. San Francisco has won both true road games at Green Bay this postseason and at Atlanta in last season's NFC Championship contest, as the Niners are playing consecutive away games in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

Chargers at Broncos (-9, 55)

San Diego: 10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS
Denver: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS

The only matchup this weekend involving division rivals takes place in Denver as the Broncos try to avoid another second round upset in the playoffs. John Fox's team couldn't quite stave off the Ravens in a double-overtime thriller that helped propel Baltimore to a Super Bowl title, as the Broncos lost 38-35 as 9 ½-point favorites. Now, Denver has to avoid losing to San Diego for the second time in less than a month, at home no less.

The Broncos have won 14 of 17 games at Sports Authority Field since Peyton Manning starting taking snaps in 2012. One of those setbacks came in a Thursday night contest in Week 15 this season to San Diego, a 27-20 defeat which helped the Chargers get on track towards the playoffs. Denver took an early 10-3 lead after one quarter, but San Diego grabbed control in the second quarter with a pair of touchdown connections from Philip Rivers to Keenan Allen to go in front at halftime. Following a Ryan Mathews touchdown run in the third quarter to go up 24-10, the Broncos could only get within seven points the rest of the way as the Chargers cashed outright as 10-point underdogs.

San Diego won its fifth consecutive game last Sunday to advance to this round, a 27-10 dominating effort at Cincinnati in the Wild Card round. The Bolts easily covered as 6½-point underdogs, while eclipsing the 26-point mark for the fifth straight week. The Bengals held a 10-7 advantage heading into halftime, but San Diego outscored Cincinnati, 20-0 in the second half, which was capped off by a 58-yard touchdown scamper by Ronnie Brown.

Both meetings between the Chargers and Broncos this season finished 'under' the total of 56 and 56½, while each matchup last season went 'over' totals of 47 ½ each time. Denver is currently on a three-game 'under' streak, but the Broncos cashed the 'over' in six of eight contests at Sports Authority Field. In nine road games this season, the Chargers have finished 'under' the total six times, including three of the last four on the highway.

In the role of a road underdog, Mike McCoy's club put together a 6-3-1 ATS mark, including outright victories at Denver, Kansas City, and Philadelphia. The Broncos were listed as a single-digit home favorite just twice this season, but won each time by at least 10 points against the Ravens and Chiefs.

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49ers, Panthers meet again
By Sportsbook.ag

Matchup: San Francisco (13-4) at Carolina (12-4)

Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: San Francisco -2 ½ & 41 ½
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: 49ers -1 ½ & 43

The 49ers seek their eighth straight victory on Sunday when they visit a Panthers team that is 11-1 SU (8-3-1 ATS) in its past dozen games, including a 10-9 win at San Francisco on Nov. 10.

The Niners gained a pathetic 151 total yards in that Week 10 loss to Carolina, which countered with only 250 total yards. That improved the Panthers to 15-3 ATS (11-7 SU) all-time in this series, including 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) at home. This year, they are 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) in Charlotte, where they hold visitors to a paltry 12.0 PPG.

But San Francisco's 23-20 win in Green Bay gives the club four straight road victories (3-0-1 ATS), and improves its outstanding road record this season to 7-2 SU (7-1-1 ATS). Its offense has tallied 378 total YPG in its past four contests (three on road), including 159 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC.

The Niners are also 9-1 ATS when facing a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) since 2011, outscoring these elite opponents by an average score of 30 to 18. Not only is Carolina 16-4 ATS after playing its last game on the road under Ron Rivera, but all good NFL teams (60% to 75% win pct.) off an extremely close road win by three points or less, facing a winning team with a line of +3 to -3 are 36-12 ATS (75%) since 1983.

Both teams have some injuries of concern for Sunday, as the 49ers could be without CB Carlos Rogers (hamstring) and TE Demarcus Dobbs (knee), while the Panthers have two key players, RB Jonathan Stewart (knee) and DT Colin Cole (calf), who are listed as questionable.

The 49ers are the rare team that has actually scored more points on the road (26.3 PPG) than at home (24.0 PPG) this season. In last week's victory in frigid Green Bay, they ran for 167 yards on just 30 carries (5.6 YPC), and outgained the Packers by 100 yards (381 to 281). San Francisco's ground game has been stellar all season with 139 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC, thanks mostly to RB Frank Gore, who has 1,194 rushing yards on 296 attempts (4.0 YPC) in his 17 games. Although he had a subpar outing last week (66 yards on 20 carries), Gore was able to score a touchdown for the fourth straight time in a postseason game. For his playoff career, he has compiled 690 total yards and 5 TD in six games, averaging a strong 4.9 yards per carry.

QB Colin Kaepernick had another monster postseason performance last week with 325 total yards (227 passing, 98 rushing), improving his playoff record to 3-1. In these four postseason games, Kaepernick has thrown for 256 YPG (9.3 YPA) with 5 TD and 3 INT, while running for 362 yards on an unbelievable 11.3 YPC and three touchdowns. Despite the Panthers' tough run defense, Gore was still able to rush for 82 yards on 16 carries (5.1 YPC) against them while Kaepernick added 16 yards on four rushes.

If the duo is not able to run the football, Kaepernick has three talented receivers that can move the ball through the air in TE Vernon Davis and WRs Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. Although Davis and Boldin have combined for 2,104 receiving yards and 21 TD this season, both were shut down in Week 10 versus Carolina, combining for just four receptions for 25 yards and 0 TD. Crabtree didn't play in that game, but he sure made his presence felt last week in Green Bay with eight catches for 125 yards. That gives him 410 receiving yards and 3 TD over four career playoff games, all in the past two seasons.

Defensively, the 49ers have been outstanding in all facets this season. They ranked among the top-seven teams in the NFL in scoring defense (17.0 PPG, 3rd), rushing defense (96 YPG, 4th), total defense (317 YPG, 5th), third-down defense (34%, 6th) and passing defense (221 YPG, 7th) during the regular season. San Francisco was able to limit a great Packers offense to 20 points and 281 yards last week, holding them to 3-of-11 conversions on third downs. The Niners run defense has been outstanding all season (3.8 YPC), and has been even better on the road (88 YPG on 3.6 YPC). In the nine away tilts this year, San Francisco has limited host teams to 299 total YPG on 4.9 yards per play. The unit has also forced at least two turnovers in 15-of-17 games this season, totaling 30 takeaways. But the Panthers are not a team that gives up the ball easily.

Carolina has been able to win 11 of its past 12 games because it has committed a total of 10 turnovers during this stretch. QB Cam Newton has completed 63.3% of his passes for 2,494 yards (208 YPG), 7.2 YPA, 18 TD and 8 INT during this 12-game stretch, but has also kept drives alive with his legs this season with 585 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and six touchdowns. But he was bottled up in the Week 10 win in San Francisco, throwing for just 169 yards on 5.3 YPA, and rushing for a mere 15 yards on eight carries. Despite that lousy performance, Newton helped the Panthers finish the regular season fifth in the NFL in offensive time of possession (31:53), fourth in third-down conversions (44%) and seventh in red-zone efficiency (58% TD rate). But despite having a ball-control, drive-sustaining, TD-converting offense with a limited amount of turnovers, they somehow average only 317 total YPG (26th in NFL) with 22.9 PPG (18th in league).

A big part of that has to do with a passing offense that doesn't gain a lot of yards (190 YPG, 29th in NFL) and doesn't get a ton of big plays either (10.4 yards per reception, 23rd in league). Top WR Steve Smith (745 rec. yards, 4 TD) missed the season finale with a knee injury, but he is probable for Sunday. Smith secured six catches for 63 yards against the Niners in Week 10, and he has had some huge performances in his eight career playoff games, totaling 782 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns.

TE Greg Olsen led the Panthers in receptions (73), receiving yards (816) and touchdowns (six) this year, but he had just one catch for 14 yards in the win over San Francisco.

Carolina's running game has been strong this season (127 YPG, 11th in NFL), and was able to grind out 109 yards on 31 carries (3.5 YPC) in that victory. RB DeAngelo Williams (843 rush yards, 4 TD) led the way with 46 yards on just eight attempts (5.8 YPC), and he may have to carry a bigger workload if Jonathan Stewart (180 rush yards, 3.8 YPC) cannot suit up.

On defense, the Panthers are sound in all facets. They finished the regular season with a league-leading 60 sacks, while ranking second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.1 PPG), second in total defense (301 YPG), second in rushing defense (87 YPG) and third in red-zone defense (42% TD rate). Although Carolina allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.6% of their passes (3rd-worst in NFL), the club still finished sixth in passing defense (214 YPG) with more interceptions (20) than touchdowns allowed (17). For the season, the Panthers forced at least one turnover in 15 of 16 games, and tallied 2+ takeaways 10 times, including the win over the Niners.


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Bolts have Peyton's number
By Sportsbook.ag

Matchup: San Diego (10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) at Denver (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Denver -9 ½, & 55
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Broncos -9 ½, & 55 ½

The sizzling-hot Chargers try to win their fourth straight road game in Sunday's divisional playoff game when they visit the top-seeded Broncos for the second time in a month.

San Diego's 27-10 blowout win at Cincinnati to open the playoffs gives the team at least 26 points in each of five straight wins overall. During that run, the club held a 177 to 18 rushing advantage in its 27-20 upset victory in Denver on Dec. 12. That was the Broncos' lone home loss this year, where they are 5-2-1 ATS and have racked up 39.5 PPG and 456 total YPG.

Denver QB Peyton Manning is 9-9 in his playoff career, including 0-2 versus the Chargers, but since joining the Broncos, he has torched San Diego for 300 passing YPG, 12 TD and 3 INT in four meetings. San Diego QB Philip Rivers is a mediocre 4-4 in his playoff career with 244 passing YPG, 9 TD and 9 INT, but he has usually played very well in this series, going 10-6 with 232 passing YPG, 27 TD and 13 INT in his career versus Denver.

Since 1992, the Chargers are 19-8 ATS (70%) when the total is at least 49.5 points, and 39-23 ATS (63%) after 3+ straight wins. But the Broncos are 8-0 ATS off a road victory versus a division rival in the past three seasons, and John Fox is 21-4 ATS (84%) after two straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as an NFL head coach.

San Diego has major injury concerns as top RB Ryan Mathews left last week's game with a recurring ankle ailment and is questionable for this contest. Two key offensive linemen for the Chargers, OT D.J. Fluker (foot) and C Nick Hardwick (stinger) were also injured in the win over the Bengals and are questionable for the game. Denver is pretty healthy after its bye week, with WR Wes Welker (concussion) cleared to play and DE Derek Wolfe (illness) also listed as probable. But C Steve Vallos (concussion), S Duke Ihenacho (concussion) and CB Kayvon Webster (thumb) are all questionable for Sunday's game.

The Chargers offense was very efficient during the regular season, leading the NFL in both time of possession (33:35) and third-down conversions (49%), but in last week's win, they had the ball for just 29:28 and converted only 4-of-12 third downs. San Diego was outgained 439 to 318 by the Bengals, but was able to win easily thanks to a +4 turnover margin. Even with RB Ryan Mathews missing a good part of the second half last week with his ankle injury, the team still rushed for a season-high 196 yards on 40 carries (4.9 YPC). That gives the Chargers 140+ rushing yards in each of the past five games (170 rushing YPG), including 177 yards on 44 carries (4.0 YPC) in the win at Denver on Dec. 12. Mathews had 127 of those yards, but if he cannot play, RB Danny Woodhead and veteran RB Ronnie Brown will look to build on their combined 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 YPC) last week, including a 58-yard TD scamper from Brown to seal the victory late in the fourth quarter.

San Diego should also be able to move the football through the air, as it had the NFL's fourth-best passing attack (271 YPG) during the regular season. QB Philip Rivers has been outstanding in his nine road games this season, completing 72% of his passes for 2,624 yards (292 YPG), 8.8 YPA, 16 TD and 6 INT. He has also thrived in the Denver thin air in his career, going 6-2 and completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,001 yards (250 YPG), 8.9 YPA, 13 TD and 7 INT in his eight career visits to Sports Authority Field. In the Dec. 12 victory there, he threw for only 166 yards, but still tossed a pair of touchdown passes to dynamic rookie WR Keenan Allen. Rivers also leans heavily on Woodhead and TE Antonio Gates, as all three players had more than 70 receptions during the regular season. Gates has had a wonderful career, but his numbers versus the Broncos aren't that special (48 receiving YPG, 6 TD in 19 games).

San Diego's defense has done a great job of keeping the Broncos' explosive offense in check this year, holding them to 24.0 PPG on 346 total YPG, which is well below their season averages of 37.9 PPG and 457 total YPG. But this defense still has plenty of holes. Despite being on the field for just 27:42 per game this season, this unit has allowed 371 total YPG, including 107 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC and 263 passing YPG on 7.5 net YPA. The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes for 24 touchdowns. These numbers have been even worse on the road where they surrender 399 total YPG on 4.8 YPC and 7.8 net YPA. But the defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers recently, compiling 14 takeaways over the past seven games. San Diego is 6-1 (SU and ATS) when it wins the turnover battle this season, something that is obviously key going up against what is clearly the best offense in the NFL.

The Broncos are known mostly for their passing offense orchestrated by Peyton Manning, but they have been able to run the ball effectively for the most part this season with 12 games of more than 100 rushing yards. Two of the exceptions were against the Chargers though, when they averaged a paltry 51.0 rushing YPG on 3.1 yards per carry. But RB Knowshon Moreno finished the year with 1,038 rushing yards and 10 TD, while adding another 548 yards and 3 TD through the air. In his seven career games in this series, Moreno has rushed for 307 yards on just 70 carries (4.4 YPC), while gaining another 194 through the air.

The Broncos have just punished teams with their air attack all season with 340 YPG on 8.3 YPA. Manning is coming off the best statistical season in NFL history, completing 68.3% of his throws for 5,477 yards, 55 TD and only 10 INT. But in his 9-9 playoff career, his numbers are below his lofty standards (292 passing YPG, 7.7 YPA, 31 TD, 21 INT). But in his two seasons with the Broncos, Manning has played 17 home games where he's completed 68.4% of his passes for 5,492 yards (323 YPG), 8.1 YPA, 52 TD and just 10 INT. This includes his 290 passing yards, 3 TD and 2 INT in last year's home playoff loss to Baltimore, which marked the eighth time in Manning's career that he lost his first postseason game.

To prevent that from happening again, he will continue to spread the ball between his four talented receivers, WRs Demaryius Thomas (1,430 rec. yards, 14 TD), Eric Decker (1,288 rec. yards, 11 TD) and Wes Welker (778 rec. yards, 10 TD), and TE Julius Thomas (788 rec. yards, 12 TD). Despite all these players catching double-digit TD passes this year, none of these four receivers scored a touchdown in the Week 15 loss to San Diego, as WR Andre Caldwell (200 rec. yards, 3 TD) caught both Manning TD throws that day filling in for the injured Welker.

Defensively, the Broncos have had their problems, especially in the red zone where they ranked 25th in the NFL by allowing 62% of their opponents' drives to end in touchdowns. They have stopped the run pretty effectively, ranking among the top-10 teams in the league in both rushing YPG (102) and YPC allowed (3.9), but have been burned through the air for 254 passing YPG (27th in NFL), 6.6 net YPA and 29 touchdowns (T-7th most in league). Denver has also seen a substantial decrease in sacks this year (41 sacks, T-13th in NFL), compared to a league-high-tying 52 sacks last season. The Broncos do have some playmakers on defense though, posting multiple takeaways in half of their games this season, including 15 takeaways in their past nine contests.


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49ers at Panthers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Two of the league's hottest teams will square off when the second-seeded Carolina Panthers host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake. It's a rematch of a Week 10 battle in San Francisco, a defensive duel in which the Panthers prevailed 10-9 as part of an eight-game winning streak and an 11-1 finish to close the regular season. The 49ers have ripped off seven consecutive victories and are seeking their third straight trip to the NFC title game.

Cam Newton, the top overall pick in the 2011 draft, has Carolina in the postseason for the first time in five years, but he has been overshadowed by fellow third-year Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco advanced to the Super Bowl last season behind Kaepernick, who had the worst game of his pro career against the Panthers in November. "They got us the first time," 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman said. "What’s on our minds is to get them now. It’s the playoffs. Win or go home."

LINE: This game opened as a Pick. The total has dropped to 41 from the opening 43.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (13-4): Wide receiver Michael Crabtree missed the first matchup against Carolina while recovering from surgery on his Achilles' tendon, but he offered a reminded of what an impact player he can be with eight catches for 125 yards in last week's 23-20 win at frigid Green Bay. Tight end Vernon Davis also was a non-factor in the earlier meeting after suffering a second-quarter concussion, but he reeled in a 28-yard scoring pass last week for his sixth TD reception in six postseason games. Having the duo on the field should make life easier for running back Frank Gore and Kaepernick, who was held to 91 yards passing by the Panthers. The 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but are giving up an average of 21.3 points in the last three games after holding nine of the previous 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (12-4): Newton threw for his lowest yardage total (3,379) in his three seasons but established career highs in touchdowns (24) and completion percentage (61.7) while showing his mettle at crunch time by directing four game-winning drives. Newton is also an integral part of a running game that features DeAngelo Williams as well as contributions from Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart, who expects to play for the first time in a month. A major concern is the status of veteran wide receiver Steve Smith's sprained left knee, with Panthers coach Ron Rivera admitting after Thursday's practice that Smith was not his "normal self." These is little concern over a defense - led by Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson and tackling machine Luke Kuechly - that registered a league-high 60 sacks and allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.1).

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina.
* 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games.
* Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Panthers are 7-1 at home, with the only loss coming to Seattle 12-7 in Week 1.

2. Crabtree has 28 catches and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games.

3. Kaepernick has 362 rushing yards in four playoff games for San Francisco, which can tie Pittsburgh for the most championship game appearances (15) since 1970 with a win.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, January 12

Chargers at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 54)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round on Sunday. Manning guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offense that surpassed 600 points for the first time in league history. The Broncos were held under 30 points only three times and two of them came against the Chargers, who lost a 28-20 decision in San Diego before pulling out a 27-20 win in Denver on Dec. 12.

Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight postseason defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career in Denver and is relishing the matchup with Manning. "I've always appreciated and look forward to, as a fan of his growing up, to go against a Peyton Manning-led team," Rivers said. "It's going to be awesome."

LINE: The Broncos opened -10 and are now -8.5. The total opened 54.5 and is down to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 13 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 20 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (10-7): San Diego ran its winning streak to five games with a 27-10 win at No. 3 seed Cincinnati last weekend, but enter Sunday's matchup with major concerns about running back Ryan Mathews' availability. Mathews averaged 118.3 yards in the final four games of the regular season, including 127 in the victory over the Broncos that helped the Chargers control the ball for more than 38 minutes, but he aggravated an ankle injury in the third quarter last week and did not return. Rivers put up pedestrian numbers against the Bengals (12-of-16, 128 yards, 1 TD), but he completed a league-high 69.5 percent of his passes during the regular season. San Diego's defense ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (258.7 yards) but limited opponents to an average of 16.3 points over the last six games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-3): Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the lineup after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons - Denver is the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs - three to Demaryius Thomas - in the first matchup with the Chargers, but he was held shut down after scoring on the opening possession of the second half. Eric Decker established career highs in yards (1,288) and receptions (87) while tight end Julius Thomas hauled in 12 scoring passes, including a 74-yarder at San Diego. Knowshon Moreno yielded more playing time to rookie running back Montee Ball down the stretch, but the onus will be on a defense that allowed 24.9 points and 254.4 passing yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC West.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 9-11 in the postseason and has lost his first game on eight occasions.

2. San Diego led the league with 39 10-play drives during the regular season and had two more for TDs in last week's win at Cincinnati.

3. Manning (5,679) needs 177 yards to surpass Joe Montana and Brett Favre for the second-highest total in postseason history behind Tom Brady (5,949).

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