NFL Wildcard Trends

NFL Wildcard Trends

KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2014, 4:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) - 1/4/2014, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-121 ATS (+23.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) at CINCINNATI (11 - 5) - 1/5/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SAN DIEGO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 4) at GREEN BAY (8 - 7 - 1) - 1/5/2014, 4:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Re: NFL Wildcard Trends

KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

NEW ORLEANS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing San Diego

SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY

San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games

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Kansas City at Indianapolis
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS in playoff games
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in home games in games played on turf

New Orleans at Philadelphia
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 games
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field

San Diego at Cincinnati
San Diego: 2-11 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents

San Francisco at Green Bay
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games

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2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

Saturday, January 4

Kansas City 3-11 SU / 2-12 ATS (0-7 L7)... 0-9 off ATS win... 0-7 off div... 0-3 L3 A... 1-10 Game One
INDIANAPOLIS Series: 3-0 SU / 3-0 ATS...11-14 SU / 12-13 ATS (0-3 L3)... 4-2 L6 H... 1-4 Game 17... 2-6 off div... defeated KC 23-8 at home in 2007
      
New Orleans 6-8 SU / 4-10 ATS (3-3 L6)... 0-5 A... 2-8 off SU win... 3-9 vs non div
PHILADELPHIA Series: 1-1 SU / 2-0 ATS... 0-2 L2 Game 17... 1-8 favs 5 < vs opp off SU win... 1-6 favs off SU div win... 2-8 favs 5 < (1-6 H)... 2-5 L7 H
      
Sunday, January 5

San Diego 9-11 SU / 8-11-1 ATS... 5-2 L7 RD's... 5-2 off div... 2-5 L7 Game One
CINCINNATI 5-1 off SU win vs opp w/ rev... 5-1 vs opp off SU win w/ rev... 4-1 vs non div opp w/ rev... 6-2 off SU win vs opp off SU win... 0-5 L5 post season... 0-4 L4 Game One... 1-4 off div opp
      
San Francisco 26-15 SU / 22-18-1 ATS (2-0 L2)... 0-2 A off div... 5-1 vs NFC North opp w/ rev... 9-4 L13 Game One... 1-3 A off SUATS div win
GREEN BAY Series: 4-2 SU / 4-1-1 ATS (2-0 H)... 6-1 off div vs opp off SUATS win... 5-1 off div vs opp off BB SU wins... 5-2 L7 post season... 7-3 w/ rev vs opp off SU win (2-0 H)... 9-4 off div game... 3-5 L8 Game One
     
ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

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NFL Wild Card Round
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday.  Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends…

Kansas City at Indianapolis:
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia:
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati:
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay:
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000.  Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

he Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

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