College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 4

College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 4

HOUSTON (8 - 4) vs. VANDERBILT (8 - 4) - 1/4/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


Houston at Vanderbilt
Houston: 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game
Vanderbilt: 17-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
College Football Betting Trends - Sun, Jan. 5


Houston at Vanderbilt
Houston: 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game
Vanderbilt: 17-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
College Football Betting Trends - Sun, Jan. 5

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NCAAF Bowl Previews
Insiderangles.com

BBVA Compass Bowl – Vanderbilt (-2½) vs. Houston - This is one case where an SEC team could actually be legitimately undervalued. Sure, Vanderbilt is not of the same ilk as the upper echelon SEC teams, but a respectable 4-4 mark inside the best conference in football is nothing to sneeze at, and unlike the top SEC teams, at least you know you will get an honest effort from the Commodores in any bowl game. Houston was off to a great start this year, but it took advantage of some weak competition and the Cougars then lost three of their last four games as the opponents got tougher. Teams currently in the AAC (Houston) are 12-19 ATS as bowl underdogs since 2000 for a 61.3 percent fade.

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NCAAF Bowl Preview
Sportspic.com

Compass Bowl

Matchup: Houston (8-4, 10-2 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Opening Line: Vanderbilt -3
Current Line: Vanderbilt -3
Percentage of Action: 64% Vanderbilt

Key Betting Trends:
Houston: 17-6 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins last three years
Vanderbilt: Under is 7-3 as a favorite away from home

Analysis: Houston bounced back after a one-year hiatus from the bowls, having last covered as -6.5 chalk two years ago. The Cougars were an underdog five times this year—and covered each time. Last season, the Commodores were giving seven points in their bowl contest, and covered by double that amount. Vandy has the early edge with the public, but the line remains the same. Given Houston’s success when getting points in 2013, it may be hard not to choose them.

Lean: Houston

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Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt vs Houston
Chuckedel.com

The Commodores came into this season facing adversity, with one of the team's best players being removed for the program, along with several other players that were involved.  They were able to overcome though, beating Florida and Tennessee in four game winning streak that brings them into the bowl.  Houston started the season hot, winning five straight before dropping to BYU by a point.  A brutal November schedule saw the Cougars go 1-3, but they hung tight with UCF and Louisville before succumbing

Vanderbilt's running game wasnt going to be the same after Zac Stacy headed to the NFL, and Jerron Seymour and Wesley Tate struggled to fill in all the voids for him.  Vandy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry this season, as Seymour and Tate averaged 4.4 and 4.1 respectively.  The pair combined for just 26 runs of more than ten yards.  Its unlikely that It will get better with Austyn Carta Samuels, the regular signal caller, forced to miss the bowl game after having surgery to repair a torn ACL.  In his stead Patton Robinette will start, a redshirt freshman who has started a pair of games earlier this year.  He completed 58% of his passes this season, for 7.1 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns and three picks.  It will likely be up to Jordan Mathews though to make big plays if the Vanderbilt offense really hopes to light things up.  Mathews is one of the better receivers in the nation, hauling in 107 passes for 1334 yards.  He had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and moved the chains on 10 of his 17 third down receptions (9-14 on less than third and ten) and converted four of his five fourth down catches.  The presence and volume of Mathews helped open up the big play for Jonathan Krause, who averaged 17.2 yards per catch this season.

The Houston offense isn't as exciting as in years past, averaging just 5.85 yards per play, but they still averaged 422.5 yards per game and scored 34 points a game.  Freshman John O'Korn had several big games this season, tossing three or more touchdowns in half of his starts this season.  He struggled throughout November though, completing just 51.3% of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt.  He also had only four touchdown passes, to go with four interceptions.  He had a pair of dangerous receivers to work with in Deontay Greenberry and Daniel Spencer.  Greenberry had 1106 yards this season, averaging 14.6 yards per catch.  Spencer averaged 15.3 yards per catch, with 20 receptions of more than 15 yards.  On the ground, Ryan Jackson took 135 carries for 655 yards.  Jackson had 21 runs of more than ten yards, and actually got stronger as games went on, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games.

Vandy's defense allowed 5.1 yards per play this season, while allowing just 352 yards per game.  It was largely thanks to a pass defense that kept opponents from getting yards after the catch, allowing only 9.8 yards per reception.  Kenny Ladler lead the team with five interceptions, and totaled 87 tackles this season. His play helped keep the big play rate through the air at just 13%.   Houston struggled to protect QBs allowing a pressure rate of 13.9%, but Vandy totaled just 24 sacks all season.  They made a few plays in the backfield though, with a 9.4% tackle for loss rate.  Caleb Azubike and Walker May lead the Commodores in that category, combing for 18 stops behind the line.

The Cougars were mostly successful shutting down run game this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and only allowing BYU and Rutgers to edge of the 200 yard mark.  They did it without making a ton of plays in the backfield, with just a 7.4% tackle for loss rate.  Houston had a pair of linebackers go over the hundred tackle mark, as Efrem Oliphant and Derrick Mathews totaled 123 and 110 respectively.  Both made a ton of solo tackles, 136 between the two of them.  The pass defense was boom or bust, allowing 16.4% of the passes thrown against them to go for more than fifteen yards, but intercepting 23 passes.  Adrian McDonald had five, while Zachary McMillian and Trevon Stewart each had four picks.

The question in this game will be if Jordan Mathews can take advantage of the big plays Houston leaves on the field, and if O'Korn's November performances were an anomaly or the regular against talented squads.  If Cart-Samuels is playing, this game is a big Vanderbilt win.  With Robinette playing, its a tight one with Vandy coming up positive in the end.

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Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

BBVA Compass Bowl - Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Houston Cougars

Opening Line: Vanderbilt -2½

Head Coach James Franklin is likely to move on from Vandy at some point around this game, so we aren't sure whether he will or will not be here for the festivities in Birmingham. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels won't be, as he has an injured knee and will turn the ball over to QB Patton Robinette, who will be making his first career start. The Dores have never won back to back bowl games in the program's history, but they have a chance to do so this year. Houston though, made great strides in the first year of playing in the AAC, and though it wasn't as successful as UCF, the year has to be looked upon with high regard for sure.

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Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt vs Houston
Chuckedel.com

The Commodores came into this season facing adversity, with one of the team's best players being removed for the program, along with several other players that were involved.  They were able to overcome though, beating Florida and Tennessee in four game winning streak that brings them into the bowl.  Houston started the season hot, winning five straight before dropping to BYU by a point.  A brutal November schedule saw the Cougars go 1-3, but they hung tight with UCF and Louisville before succumbing

Vanderbilt's running game wasnt going to be the same after Zac Stacy headed to the NFL, and Jerron Seymour and Wesley Tate struggled to fill in all the voids for him.  Vandy averaged just 3.5 yards per carry this season, as Seymour and Tate averaged 4.4 and 4.1 respectively.  The pair combined for just 26 runs of more than ten yards.  Its unlikely that It will get better with Austyn Carta Samuels, the regular signal caller, forced to miss the bowl game after having surgery to repair a torn ACL.  In his stead Patton Robinette will start, a redshirt freshman who has started a pair of games earlier this year.  He completed 58% of his passes this season, for 7.1 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns and three picks.  It will likely be up to Jordan Mathews though to make big plays if the Vanderbilt offense really hopes to light things up.  Mathews is one of the better receivers in the nation, hauling in 107 passes for 1334 yards.  He had 28 receptions of more than 15 yards, and moved the chains on 10 of his 17 third down receptions (9-14 on less than third and ten) and converted four of his five fourth down catches.  The presence and volume of Mathews helped open up the big play for Jonathan Krause, who averaged 17.2 yards per catch this season.

The Houston offense isn't as exciting as in years past, averaging just 5.85 yards per play, but they still averaged 422.5 yards per game and scored 34 points a game.  Freshman John O'Korn had several big games this season, tossing three or more touchdowns in half of his starts this season.  He struggled throughout November though, completing just 51.3% of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt.  He also had only four touchdown passes, to go with four interceptions.  He had a pair of dangerous receivers to work with in Deontay Greenberry and Daniel Spencer.  Greenberry had 1106 yards this season, averaging 14.6 yards per catch.  Spencer averaged 15.3 yards per catch, with 20 receptions of more than 15 yards.  On the ground, Ryan Jackson took 135 carries for 655 yards.  Jackson had 21 runs of more than ten yards, and actually got stronger as games went on, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games.

Vandy's defense allowed 5.1 yards per play this season, while allowing just 352 yards per game.  It was largely thanks to a pass defense that kept opponents from getting yards after the catch, allowing only 9.8 yards per reception.  Kenny Ladler lead the team with five interceptions, and totaled 87 tackles this season. His play helped keep the big play rate through the air at just 13%.   Houston struggled to protect QBs allowing a pressure rate of 13.9%, but Vandy totaled just 24 sacks all season.  They made a few plays in the backfield though, with a 9.4% tackle for loss rate.  Caleb Azubike and Walker May lead the Commodores in that category, combing for 18 stops behind the line.

The Cougars were mostly successful shutting down run game this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and only allowing BYU and Rutgers to edge of the 200 yard mark.  They did it without making a ton of plays in the backfield, with just a 7.4% tackle for loss rate.  Houston had a pair of linebackers go over the hundred tackle mark, as Efrem Oliphant and Derrick Mathews totaled 123 and 110 respectively.  Both made a ton of solo tackles, 136 between the two of them.  The pass defense was boom or bust, allowing 16.4% of the passes thrown against them to go for more than fifteen yards, but intercepting 23 passes.  Adrian McDonald had five, while Zachary McMillian and Trevon Stewart each had four picks.

The question in this game will be if Jordan Mathews can take advantage of the big plays Houston leaves on the field, and if O'Korn's November performances were an anomaly or the regular against talented squads.  If Cart-Samuels is playing, this game is a big Vanderbilt win.  With Robinette playing, its a tight one with Vandy coming up positive in the end.

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BBVA Compass Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Houston Cougars (+2.5, 52.5)


BBVA COMPASS BOWL STORYLINES


1. Houston and Vanderbilt meet at the BBVA Compass Bowl at Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., on Jan. 4 without important pieces of the offense. Commodores senior quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels, who started the last three regular-season games, will not play after having surgery on his left knee. Houston offensive coordinator Doug Meacham took the same position at Texas Christian after the regular season, leaving assistant head coach Travis Bush to return to play-calling duties.

2. Vanderbilt extended its streak to nine straight November wins, finishing the regular season with four straight victories - including the last two by a combined six points. The Cougars lost all four of their games by seven points or fewer, including three straight in November before ending the season with a 34-0 victory over Southern Methodist.

3. The Houston defense - ranked first in the country in takeaways (40) and turnover margin (plus-25) - will have its hands full with Jordan Matthews, the SEC's record-breaking receiver. The Cougars also have a 1,000-yard receiver in Deontay Greenberry.

LINE: Vanderbilt opened as a 3-point fave but is now -2.5. The total is down to 52.5 from the opening 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with sunny skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Over is 5-2 in Commodores last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cougars last four games overall.
* Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a ATS loss.

ABOUT VANDERBILT (8-4, 4-4 SEC): Redshirt freshman Patton Robinette (40-of-69, 488 yards, two touchdowns, six rushing scores) made two starts for the Commodores, who are playing in their third straight bowl game for the first time in school history. Matthews broke his own single-season school record with 1,334 yards and owns Vanderbilt and SEC marks for career receptions (257), career yards (3,616), 100-yard games (18) and single-season receptions (107). Carta-Samuels, who injured his knee Oct. 19 and missed two games before returning, had the surgery after the regular season ended so he would be ready to participate in this spring's pro day activities.

ABOUT HOUSTON (8-4, 5-3 American Athletic Conference): Freshman John O'Korn, who started the last 10 games, went 239-of-399 for 2,889 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Adrian McDonald had five of the team's 23 interceptions and Trevon Stewart recovered six of the 17 fumbles. Bush called plays for 11 games in 2012 and was promoted to offensive coordinator - the Cougars' seventh in six years - Dec. 6.

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BBVA Compass Bowl
By Sportsbook.ag

BBVA Compass Bowl

Matchup: Vanderbilt (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Houston (8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS)
Venue: Legion Field
Location: Birmingham, AL
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Vanderbilt -3, 53.5

Vanderbilt will attempt to earn a nine-win season against Houston, also in search of win No. 9, in Saturday's Compass Bowl, but the Commodores will have to do so without starting QB Austyn Carta-Samuels (knee), who tore his ACL earlier in the season and underwent surgery after the conclusion of the regular season.

After losing two of its first three games, Vandy navigated the rest of its season well, earning strong wins over programs such as Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. The Commodores went 6-6 ATS, including 3-2 ATS in non-home games where it gained just 294 total YPG.

The Cougars didn’t beat a ranked team all year—falling to their two ranked foes in UCF and Louisville—though they closed out their season with a 34-0 shutout of SMU to avoid ending the year on a four-game losing skid. They went an incredible 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS in non-home games (1-0 ATS at neutral site) where they gained 447 total YPG. But Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing six or fewer points in their previous game since 1992. They are, however, 17-6 ATS (74%) after an SU win over the past three seasons.

With Austyn Carta-Samuels (2,268 pass yards, 8.1 YPA, 11 TD, 9 INT) out for this game, freshman QB Patton Robinette will step under center. He filled in for a couple games earlier in the year after the injury was initially suffered, and finished the year completing 58.0% of his passes for 488 yards (7.1 YPA), 2 TD and 3 INT. He also ran for 177 yards (3.2 YPC) and six touchdowns.

Robinette may not be very accomplished in his young career, but he has the luxury of throwing one last game to senior WR Jordan Matthews (107 catches, 1,334 yards, 5 TD), the SEC’s all-time leader in yards and receptions. And for bigger plays, he can look to another senior, WR Jonathan Krause (41 catches, 703 yards, 3 TD), who averaged 17.1 yards per reception.

On the ground, sophomore RB Jerron Seymour (627 rush yards, 4.4 YPC) found the end zone 13 times, while the Commodores scored 31 rushing TD all season. Although he missed the last game against Wake Forest with an injury, he is expected to start on Saturday.

Vanderbilt’s defense was average, giving up 24.7 PPG (47th in FBS) and 367 total YPG. The Commodores stopped the run (148 YPG on 4.1 YPC) much more effectively than the pass (204 YPG, 6.1 YPA), allowing a 63% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, including 68% completions on the road. Vanderbilt helped itself out nicely by forcing 27 turnovers this season, compiling 20 takeaways over the final six games. Houston's offense was pretty strong in 2013, racking up 33.9 PPG (34th in FBS), including 284 passing YPG (2rd in nation). Freshman QB John O’Korn takes the snaps for the Cougars, and he has thrown for 2,889 yards (7.2 YPA), 26 TD and 8 INT. He completed 59.9% of his passes and averaged 33 attempts per game, but did not throw an interception in eight of his 12 contests.

He has a clear favorite target in sophomore WR Deontay Greenberry (76 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD) while junior WR Daniel Spencer (50 catches, 764 yards, 6 TD) can also make things happen in the open field.

Sophomore RB Ryan Jackson (655 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 6 TD) led Houston on the ground, but he has not gained 70 rushing yards in a game for nine straight contests, as his offense much more prefers to throw the football.

Playing an easy schedule, Houston gave up only 20.2 PPG (15th in FBS), and was especially tough against the run, holding teams to 144 YPG on a mere 3.5 YPC. Through the air, the Cougars allowed a hefty 276 passing YPG (7.0 YPA) on 62% completions. But this defense knows how to change the complexion of a game by forcing turnovers. The unit tallied at least three takeaways in nine of its 12 games this season, totaling 40 forced turnovers for the season.


Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

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Compass Bowl

Vanderbilt is playing in its 7th bowl game, but third year in row, wonder if they can keep coach Franklin; Commodores split pair of bowl last two years vs Cincinnati/NC State. Vandy is 3-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, 2-2 in games with single digit spread- they're 2-2 as favorite this year. Houston is 9-2 vs spread this year, 4-0 as an underdog; they scored 17 or less points during 3-game kid in November, also lost 47-46 at home to BYU; Cougars 7-1 in games with a single digit spread, are 2-3 in last five bowls. Levine won his only bowl game, as interim coach two years ago. Houston has a true frosh QB who is better than either of Vandy's QBs. SEC teams are 1-2 in this game; AAC teams are 5-0, even though they weren't AAC team at the time, since this is league's first year. AAC teams are 2-1 in bowls this year; SEC teams are 4-3- they were favored in five of the seven games.

Armadillosports.com

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