College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

MIDDLE TENN ST (8 - 4) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/30/2013, 11:45 AM

Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games against Conference USA opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 71-36 ATS (+31.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NAVY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


OLE MISS (7 - 5) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7 - 5) - 12/30/2013, 3:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
OLE MISS is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TEXAS (8 - 4) vs. OREGON (10 - 2) - 12/30/2013, 6:45 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) vs. ARIZONA ST (10 - 3) - 12/30/2013, 10:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
TEXAS TECH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. NAVY
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Middle Tennessee's last 15 games
Middle Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Navy4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games

MISSISSIPPI vs. GEORGIA TECH
Mississippi is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia Tech's last 8 games
Georgia Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

TEXAS vs. OREGON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games
Texas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Oregon is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

TEXAS TECH vs. ARIZONA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 8 games
Texas Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona State's last 15 games


Middle Tenn St at Navy
Middle Tenn St: 5-17 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
Navy: 14-4 ATS in road games against Conference USA opponents

Ole Miss at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss: 12-3 ATS road games after a game where they committed 4 or more TOs
Georgia Tech: 3-12 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games

Texas at Oregon
Texas: 6-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Oregon: 1-5 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Texas Tech at Arizona State
Texas Tech: 3-12 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game
Arizona St: 10-4 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

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NCAAF Bowl Previews
Insiderangles.com

Armed Forces Bowl – Middle Tennessee vs. Navy (-6) - As usual, Navy was among the top rushing teams in the country this season, in fact ranking second with 323.8 yards per game on the ground, and on the surface that would look like a tough matchup for a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 4.2 yards per rush. However, with a full month to prepare and the Midshipmen ranking 124th out of 125 Division I teams in passing offense, the Blue Raiders should be able to devise a solid defensive game plan vs. a one-dimensional offense. MTSU is much more balanced offensively, averaging 207.1 rushing yards per game and also boasting an NFL prospect at quarterback in Logan Kilgore. Bowl favorites coming off of 3 ATS wins (Navy) are only 29-50-3 ATS since 2000 for a 63.3 percent fade.

Motor City Bowl – Mississippi (-3) vs. Georgia Tech - This bowl is a nice contrast in styles with Georgia Tech ranking fifth in the country in rushing with 312.1 yards per game on the ground on 5.6 yards per carry, while Mississippi is averaging 473.4 total yards per game thanks to going no-huddle most of the time. The Yellow Jackets just faced another SEC team in the regular season finale while taking Georgia to overtime, and the biggest surprise of that game was quarterback Vad Lee passing for a season-high 232 yards. As for Ole Miss, quarterback Bo Wallace is regressing lately with four interceptions in his last two games after throwing only five over the first 10 Rebels’ contests, and he may be under constant pressure here from Georgia Tech’s NFL prospect Jeremiah Attaochu. ACC Bowl underdogs (Georgia Tech) are 39-23-2, 62.9 percent ATS since 2000.

Alamo Bowl – Oregon (-13½) vs. Texas - This is the last game for Mack Brown as the Texas head coach, but while that may motivate the Longhorns to play with great emotion, it may not help them contain the Oregon rushing attack. Texas is ranked 80th in the country in rushing defense allowing 180.5 yards per game on the ground on 4.3 yards per carry, and most notably allowed 550 rushing yards in one game vs. BYU early in the year. Granted, that Longhorns’ defense improved once Big 12 play started and actually moved up from the triple-digits to 64th in the country in total defense, but that was mainly vs. pass-happy offenses. The Ducks are ninth in the nation in rushing offense at 278.4 yards per game on a whopping 6.4 yards per carry, and they have a fine quarterback in Marcus Mariota that should prevent Texas from cheating against the run. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game.

Holiday Bowl – Arizona State (-14) vs. Texas Tech - Texas Tech was off to a surprising start this season at 7-0 under new 34-year-old head coach Kliff Kingsbury, but then the world caved in and the Red Raiders lost their last five games. Furthermore quarterback Baker Mayfield, who began this season as the starter, has now transferred out of the school and is ineligible to play in this bowl game. Arizona State lost to Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but it still finished 10-3 while facing a much more difficult schedule than Texas Tech faced. In fact, the Sun Devils’ schedule ranked second in the entire country in SOS. Texas Tech is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss.

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Bowl Season Preview
Sportspic.com

Armed Forces Bowl

Matchup: Middle Tennessee State (8-4, 5-6 ATS) vs. Navy (7-4, 8-3 ATS)
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Opening Line: Navy -6.5
Current Line: Navy -6
Percentage of Action: 55% Middle Tennessee State

Key Betting Trends:
Middle Tennessee St.: 5-17 ATS in road games after three consecutive conference games
Navy: 14-4 ATS in road games against Conference USA opponents

Analysis: Middle Tennessee makes a bowl appearance for the first time in three years, and struggled when it came to covering the spread. The Blue Raiders’ last effort ended in a defeat as a -1.5 favorite. Navy has put up solid numbers this year when it comes to handicapping, but most of the success has come as an underdog. As a favorite, the Midshipmen have a 7-12 ATS mark the past three years. Navy was thrashed in last year’s bowl game as 13-point underdogs. Early money has been on Middle Tennessee, resulting in a half-point drop, but the action has tightened of late.

Lean: Middle Tennessee State

Music City Bowl

Matchup: Mississippi (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-7 ATS)
Location: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee

Opening Line: Mississippi -3
Current Line: Mississippi -3
Percentage of Action: 66% Mississippi

Key Betting Trends:
Mississippi: 12-3 ATS in road games after four or more turnovers in previous game
Georgia Tech: 5-14 ATS after playing a game at home the past three seasons

Analysis: Mississippi has shown a tendency to bounce back after struggling, and the Rebels won easily as -4.5 favorites in last year’s bowl game. Georgia Tech was getting 7.5 points in last year’s bowl battle, and ended up winning by two touchdowns. Early money is solidly behind Mississippi, though their handicapping performance this year was decidedly average, and the line has yet to move. Still, the Yellow Jackets have come upshort the last four times as a dog, so playing the chalk might be the right idea.

Lean: Mississippi

Alamo Bowl

Matchup: Texas (8-4, 5-6 ATS) vs. Oregon (10-2, 7-5 ATS)
Location: Alamo Dome, San Antonio, Texas

Opening Line: Oregon -13
Current Line: Oregon -13
Percentage of Action: 87% Oregon

Key Betting Trends:
Texas: Under is 4-0 this season when Longhorns are an underdogs
Oregon: 1-5 ATS in last six games

Analysis: The Longhorns played the Ducks’ cross-state rivals last year during bowl season, needing a fourth quarter comeback to win the game, and covering as a three-point dog in the process. Oregon has lost in its last two trips away from home, and with national title hopes in ruins, the potential for a letdown is under consideration. Early money is heavily on the Ducks, but the pointspread needle has yet to move. There may be enough points to consider the dog here.

Lean: Texas

Holiday Bowl

Matchup: Texas Tech (7-5, 5-7 ATS) vs. Arizona State (10-3, 7-6 ATS)
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

Opening Line: Arizona State -13.5
Current Line: Arizona State -13.5
Percentage of Action: 78% Arizona State

Key Betting Trends:
Texas Tech: 0-8 after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games last two seasons
Arizona State: Over is 11-4 last 15 when Sun Devils are a double-digit favorite

Analysis: The Red Raiders again reach the postseason, this time under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Last season, Texas Tech won their bowl game, but failed to cover as 13-point chalk. However, a 7-0 start was followed by five straight losses. Arizona State poured on the offense in their bowl matchup last year, scoring 62 points in three quarters to easily cover the 13-point spread. The Sun Devils fell apart in the PAC-12 title game, losing big as a slight favorite. Early money gives a strong lean to the Sun Devils, but a letdown may be in order.

Lean: Texas Tech

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Armed Forces Bowl betting: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Navy Midshipmen (-6.5, 56.5)


BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES


1. Middle Tennessee finished the regular season with a flourish, cruising to five straight wins by scoring an average of 42.6 points. That streak earned the Blue Raiders a date with Navy in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, on Dec. 30. The Midshipmen crushed rival Army in their annual showdown on Dec. 14 and enters bowl season with a four-game winning streak thanks to a dominating ground attack.

2. Middle Tennessee doesn’t run it quite as much as Navy but can pile up yards on the ground behind Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley, who combined for 1,372 rushing yards in the regular season. Quarterback Logan Kilgore finished the season strong with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions during the season-ending winning streak for the Blue Raiders.

3. No team in college football throws it less than the Midshipmen, who dominate on the ground with a triple-option attack. Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds averaged 10.1 pass attempts and 23.3 rushing attempts in guiding an offense that puts up an average of 34.3 points.

LINE: Navy opened -6 and is now -6.5. The total opened 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 5 mph.

ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (8-4, 6-2 Conference USA): The Blue Raiders are making a return to bowl play for the first time since falling to Miami (Ohio) in the GoDaddy.com Bowl after the 2010 season and are focused on picking up the school’s third bowl win in history. “You have your destination and objective in mind,” Kilgore said of returning to practice after exams. “… After we progress the next couple of days, we’ll start tightening down more for Navy.” Middle Tennessee tightened its defense over the last four games, but surrendered 177 yards on the ground in a 48-17 victory over Texas-El Paso in the regular-season finale.

ABOUT NAVY (8-4): The Midshipmen played the final regular-season game of the college season against rival Army and showed off the effectiveness of the triple option by churning out 343 of their 353 yards on the ground in the 34-7 victory. Reynolds’ three rushing touchdowns gave him 29 on the season, breaking the NCAA single-season record of 27 shared by former Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs (2009) and Kansas State’s Collin Klein (2011). Navy gave most of its opponents fits and nearly pulled off an upset at Notre Dame on Nov. 2 before falling 38-34.

TRENDS:

* Blue Raiders are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last seven non-conference games.
* Over is 6-2 in Midshipmen last eight Bowl games.

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Music City Bowl betting: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3, 56.5)


FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL STORYLINES


1. Two highly productive offenses will be on display when Georgia Tech meets Mississippi in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville, Tenn. The Yellow Jackets are fifth in the nation in rushing (311.7) with a variety of weapons and Ole Miss has shown a bit more balance with quarterback Bo Wallace throwing for 3,090 yards and 17 touchdowns. Georgia Tech is 4-5 since beating Duke and North Carolina while the Rebels finished with two losses, but own solid victories over LSU and Texas.

2. The key may be which defense can come up with a big play to turn the momentum. All-SEC defensive back Cody Prewitt has six interceptions for Ole Miss, including one each in the last two games, and Georgia Tech defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu is tied for second in the country in sacks with 12.

3. Georgia Tech plays in a bowl game for the 17th straight season and is 23-18 overall after snapping a seven-game losing streak with a 21-7 victory over USC in last year’s Sun Bowl. The Rebels are 22-12, including wins in nine of their last 10 bowl games, and have split with the Yellow Jackets – winning the 1971 Peach Bowl and losing the 1953 Sugar Bowl.

LINE: Ole Miss has held as 3-point faves. The total is down one point to 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-5, 3-5 SEC): Wallace completes 64.4 percent of his passes and has three receivers with impressive numbers - Donte Moncrief (53 catches, 825 yards), Ja-Mes Logan (44, 583) and Laquon Treadwell (67, 557). The Rebels have given up 196 yards or more on the ground five times this season and an average of 155.2 overall. Ole Miss does not have a standout runner, but put up 187.4 rushing yards per contest and the Rebels had 340 passing against Auburn in an eight-point loss on the road.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (7-5, 5-3 ACC): David Sims rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his last five contests to lead the team with 846 and 11 touchdowns while versatile Robert Godhigh had three 100-yard games running the ball and is the team’s leader in receiving yards. Quarterback Vad Lee had four touchdown passes against a solid Duke defense in the second game and only six in the other 11 while completing only 47.2 percent of his passes. Attaochu has 31 career sacks to tie Greg Gathers (1999-2002) for the school record.

TRENDS:

* Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Rebels last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Yellow Jackets last five Bowl games.

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Alamo Bowl betting: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Longhorns (+14, 67)


VALERO ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES


1. Texas coach Mack Brown's swan song with the Longhorns comes against the 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Dec. 30 in San Antonio. Texas announced Dec. 14 that Brown will step down after 16 seasons, during which he has compiled a 158-47 record - making him the second-winningest coach in the program's rich history behind Darrell Royal (167). Brown led the Longhorns to two Big 12 titles and the 2005 national championship, but Texas struggled to a 30-20 record over the past four seasons, including 19-17 in the Big 12.

2. Oregon went from national championship contender to having its streak of four straight BCS bowls snapped thanks to November losses at Stanford (26-20) and Arizona (42-16), but the Ducks say they won't lack motivation despite the lower-tier postseason invitation. "We had a tough four-game stretch here at the end of the season, stubbed our toe a little bit," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told the Ducks' website. "But we'll be hungry to get back out there."

3. The Ducks' up-tempo spread offense is similar to the system employed by Baylor, which rolled up 508 total yards in a 30-10 win over the Longhorns in the regular-season finale. Texas will need defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat - the Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year - to be a constant fixture in the backfield to disrupt Oregon's timing and give the Longhorns a chance to keep pace on the scoreboard.

LINE: The Ducks opened as 13-point faves and are now -14. The total has held steady at 67.

ABOUT OREGON (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12): Even with former coach Chip Kelly gone to the NFL, the Ducks continue to put up prolific offensive numbers, ranking second in the nation in total yards (573.1) and third in scoring (46.8). Quarterback Marcus Mariota's Heisman Trophy candidacy fizzled when the threw four interceptions and fumbled five times in the last four games of the regular season, but expects to be fully recovered from a lingering knee injury for the bowl game. The Ducks will be without tight end Pharaoh Brown (10 catches, 123 yards, two touchdowns), who was suspended for his role in a snowball fight on campus that escalated and resulted in innocent bystanders being pelted with snowballs, but he is a minor player in the passing game as eight Ducks have more receptions with Josh Huff (57 catches, 1,036 yards, 11 TDs) leading the way.

ABOUT TEXAS (8-4, 7-2 Big 12): The Longhorns were written off early after losses to BYU (40-21) and Mississippi (44-23) but rebounded in conference play and found themselves in a de facto Big 12 title game against Baylor in the season finale. The offense is built around the running game with Malcolm Brown (774 yards, nine touchdowns) leading the way since Johnathan Gray's season-ending injury, but Texas struggles when playing from behind because of quarterback Case McCoy's inconsistency. The defense has scuffled against strong rushing teams - allowing 200 or more yards four times, including a whopping 550 yards against Brigham Young - so it might have its hands full against Oregon's read option.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12.
* Under is 4-1 in Ducks last five Bowl games.
* Over is 5-0 in Longhorns last five non-conference games.

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Holiday Bowl betting: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+14, 71.5)


NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES


1. The Rose Bowl was the preferred destination but No. 17 Arizona State plans to take the National University Holiday Bowl seriously as it looks for the school’s first 11-win campaign since 1996. The Sun Devils had a seven-game winning streak snapped with a loss to Stanford in the Pac-12 title game but are rising under second-year coach Todd Graham. Texas Tech collapsed after a 7-0 start and is saddled with a five-game losing streak.

2. Red Raiders quarterback Baker Mayfield (12 touchdown passes) decided to transfer in the second week of December so it appears Davis Webb will be the starter against the Sun Devils. Webb (16 TD passes) started five games this season and ended up with the same number of yards (2,315) and interceptions (nine) as Mayfield. Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury said Michael Brewer (10 pass attempts) will compete with Webb for the starting role.

3. The status of Arizona State running back Marion Grice (lower-leg injury) remains uncertain after he missed the past two games. The multipurpose threat has rushed for 996 yards and 14 touchdowns and found the end zone six more times as a receiver.

LINE: The Sun Devils opened as 13.5-point faves and are now -14. The total is up two points from the opening number of 69.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 4 mph.

ABOUT TEXAS TECH (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): No matter who ends up playing quarterback, he has two superb targets to throw to in tight end Jace Amaro and receiver Eric Ward. Amaro led the Big 12 with 98 receptions and his 1,240 yards rank fifth in school history, while Ward racked up 80 catches for 904 yards and a team-best eight touchdowns. The defense allows 31.2 points – including an atrocious 48.6 average during the five-game skid – but features strong players in linebacker Will Smith (team-best 106 tackles) and defensive end Kerry Hyder (team-leading 11.5 tackles for loss).

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (10-3, 8-1 Pac-12): The Sun Devils average 41 points but a defense that racked up 21 interceptions and 40 sacks has also been a crucial factor in the highly successful season. Defensive tackle Will Sutton had 10.5 tackles for loss and was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season and safeties Robert Nelson (six) and Alden Darby (four) combined for nearly half the picks. Quarterback Taylor Kelly is a multipurpose threat with 3,510 yards and 28 touchdowns as a passer and 473 yards and eight scores as a runner and wideout Jaelen Strong caught 71 passes for 1,094 yards.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Sun Devils last four non-conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Red Raiders last six Bowl games.

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Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

Armed Forces Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. Navy Midshipmen

Opening Line: Navy -6.5

We have already seen the MAC struggle in the bowl season in a big time way. Is Conference USA next? The Blue Raiders only beat one bowl team this year, the Marshall Thundering Herd, and they could have their hands full against Navy if the Middies get their defense in order. They had allowed over 600 yards in their last two bowl games, both of which turned out to be easy losses.

Music City Bowl - Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Opening Line: Ole Miss -3

The Rebels have been great of late in bowl games, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five, while Georgia Tech snapped a seven-game losing streak in bowls last season in the Sun Bowl against the USC Trojans. History suggests that this is going to be a game where the Rebs succeed as well, as they have been getting beaten up by the rough and tumble SEC all year long, while the triple option for the Ramblin' Wreck has had no success whatsoever against the SEC.

Alamo Bowl - Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Longhorns

Opening Line: Oregon -13.5

There is a lot of emotion here in this bowl game, as it is a de facto home game for Texas against one of the best teams in the country in the final game for Head Coach Mack Brown. Brown's legacy is going to be in his bowl wins, which have come in scores for sure. The only bowl loss he has had since 2003 came in the National Championship Game. Oregon's offense, which is good for over 45 points per game in the last four seasons combined, has averaged just 29.0 points per game in its last four bowl games.

Holiday Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Opening Line: Arizona State -14

There was a point when T-Tech was ranked in the Top 10 in the land, but it has been beaten in five straight games both SU and ATS coming into the Holiday Bowl. The Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games in spite of the fact that they are 5-1 SU in those games. The Sun Devils waxed the Navy Midshipmen last season in their bowl game, and they are going to be flying high for sure after being one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this year.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Underdog won this game SU last four years; service academies are 2-3 in this game the last six years, C-USA teams are 2-6 since '04. Both teams want to run ball here; Middle Tennessee won its last five games after 3-4 start; they scored on last play to beat Marshall 51-49 that turned season around- they won last three games by combined score of 138-38, while running ball for 274.4 ypg. Navy runs option; they scored 47.3 ppg in winning last three games- their last three road games were all decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Middies lost four of last five bowls, allowing 36.8 ppg; This is first bowl since '10 for Blue Raiders, who are 1-2 in its bowls, allowing 31+ points in all three. Navy is 3-2 vs spread as a fave this season; they gave up 42.5 ppg in last four road games. MTSU is 2-3 as an underdog this year- they haven't lost since October 12th.

Music City Bowl

Can Ole Miss stop Georgia Tech's option game? You'd think with extra prep time, teams would defend it better- Tech is 1-4 in last five bowls, scoring 14.4 ppg- they played in Sun Bowl last two years, will be glad to be somewhere new this year. Ole Miss won last three bowls and eight of its last nine, scoring an average of 38.3 ppg in last three; their last bowl loss was '03 Cotton Bowl when Eli Manning was their QB. Rebels lost last two regular season games, scoring 10 points in each- they're 3-4 as a favorite this year, 2-3 SU on road, losing last three away games. Georgia Tech scored 43.7 ppg in last three games, but blew 20-point lead in last game, losing 41-34 to rival Georgia. SEC teams are 5-2 in this bowl last seven years; favorites covered three of last four, after dog had covered five in row. Nashville is SEC (Vandy) country; Rebels will have crowd advantage. Tech threw 24+ passes in two of its last three games.

Alamo Bowl

Lot of emotion here: Mack Brown's last game as head coach after his 16 years at Texas, while Oregon's longtime defensive aide Aliotti is retiring after 38 years in coaching, so Oregon's defense will be pumped. Texas is 8-4, allowing 30+ points in all four losses and two wins; they're 4-1 in last five bowls, but they won this game LY, don't like teams returning to bowl they won year before, even if Longhorns will be crowd favorite in Alamo. This is first time in five years Ducks aren't playing top 10 team in a bowl; also first bowl for coach Helfrich; Oregon allowed 219+ yards on ground in four of last five games- teams that beat them held Ducks to 16-20 points. Texas fired its DC after second game; they won seven of last nine games, but allowed 30+ points in three of last four games, split four games as a dog this year, beating Oklahoma as 12-point underdog on neutral field. Oregon failed to cover last four games, all as double digit favorite. Some Ducks might not be thrilled about San Antonio site. Big X teams won this bowl game ths last five years.

Holiday Bowl

Texas Tech was 7-0 when it won 37-27 at West Virginia Oct 19, then it lost last five games, giving up average of 48.6 ppg; they're 1-3 vs spread as an underdog this year.Arizona State had 7-game win streak snapped in 38-14 loss to Stanford in Pac0-12 title game. Qualcomm saw its share of drama Sunday with Chargers' OT win, now it is going to see lot of balls in air, with Kingsbury is in first year as HC; his Tech team won their last three bowls, scoring 40 ppg. Average total in Tech's last five bowls is 60. Arizona State won 62-28 in Frisco Bowl LY; Graham won four of his five bowls overall as HC. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this game, with Big X teams winning three of last four.ASU was favored in every game but its first loss to Stanford- they're 3-2 away from Temple, winning by total of six points in last two road games- they lost to Notre Dame on a neutral field, lost 42-28 at Stanford.

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Monday's Early Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Armed Forces Bowl

Matchup: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) vs. Navy Midshipmen (8-4)
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Time/TV: 11:45 a.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Navy 6½, Total: 54½

Middle Tennessee and Navy meet in Monday's Armed Forces Bowl as each program attempts to win its first bowl game since 2009.

The Blue Raiders put together their best season since 2007 thanks to a strong rushing attack, and finished third in the Eastern Division of the C-USA conference. They had a five-game winning streak to finish off the season and won their final three games by an average of 33.3 PPG. Middle Tennessee has played in three bowl games since 2006, going 1-2 SU and ATS while losing its most recent bowl, a 35-21 defeat in the GoDaddy.com Bowl against Miami (OH) in 2011. The Midshipmen once again were among the top teams in the nation at running the ball with their option offense and also finished the season off in strong fashion, winning their last four contests. Navy had a big win on Nov. 22 when it defeated San Jose State on the road in triple overtime by a score of 58-52, and ran for 432 yards with Navy QB Keenan Reynolds running for an NCAA record seven touchdowns. Navy has had little success in bowl games recently though, with a 1-3 SU and ATS record since 2008 while suffering an embarrassing 62-28 loss against Arizona State in the Fight Hunger bowl last season. This game will mark the first time that these two programs have met in their history. The Blue Raiders are 14-4 ATS (78%) after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992, while the Midshipmen are 71-36 (66%) against non-conference opponents since 1992. There are no significant injuries on either side for this game.

Middle Tennessee rushed the ball for more yards on the season than they did passing it. The team ranked 25th in the nation with 208.3 YPG on the ground thanks to multiple contributions from their running game. Their leading rusher on the season was HB Jordan Parker who ran for 741 yards (5.1 YPC) and scored six rushing touchdowns. He missed two games towards the end of the season and ran the ball only nine times in the team’s final two games, but managed 88 yards (9.8 YPC) and a touchdown in that time. Joining Parker in the backfield is HB Reggie Whatley (631 rushing yards, 6.8 YPC, 3 TD) who had only 10+ attempts in five games on the season, but ran for more than 100 yards in three games. QB Logan Kilgore threw for 2,289 yards (7.1 YPA) and 16 touchdowns, but struggled with turnovers (11 interceptions). He is coming off a season-high 325-yard passing game where he threw two touchdowns and an interception in a winning effort against UTEP. The trio of WRs Tavarres Jefferson (532 yards), Marcus Henry (528 yards) and Kyle Griswould (359 yards) combined to catch more than half of the passes on the year (52%) and 12 of the 17 receiving touchdowns. LB Stephen Roberts (60 tackles, 2 INT) and the Blue Raiders held their opponents to 26.4 PPG and only 14.8 PPG over their last four regular-season contests.

Navy once again used its option offense to beat teams by running the ball, finishing the season with 322.0 YPG on the ground (2nd in the nation) while being near the bottom in passing yards (91.5 YPG, 122nd in the nation). QB Keenan Reynolds was the team’s leading rusher with 1,260 yards (4.5 YPC) and ranks second in the nation with 29 rushing touchdowns. He put up huge games over the team's past four contests, averaging 165.3 YPG on the ground and totaling 15 touchdowns, including a record-breaking, seven-touchdown rushing performance against San Jose State on Nov. 22. While Reynolds did not throw often, he made the most of his attempts, throwing for 1,038 yards (8.6 YPA) and eight touchdowns while keeping turnovers to a minimum with only two interceptions. After Reynolds, the Midshipmen had seven different players who rushed for between 250 and 400 yards while totaling 14 rushing touchdowns between them. Navy had only two wide receivers that totaled more than 10 receptions on the year. WR DeBrandon Sanders had 12 receptions for 217 yards (18.1 avg.) and one touchdown, while WR Casey Bolena totaled 13 receptions for 164 yards (12.6 avg.) with none going for a score. LB Cody Peterson (135 tackles) led the defense, which allowed opponents to score 25.9 PPG on the season, including holding their rivals, Army, to seven points in the final game of the season.

Music City Bowl

Matchup: Mississippi Rebels (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5)
Venue: LP Field
Location: Nashville, TN
Time/TV: 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Ole Miss -3, Total: 56½

A winner of five consecutive bowl games, Ole Miss is slightly favored against Georgia Tech’s option offense in Monday's Music City Bowl in Nashville.

The Rebels had a strong stretch in the middle of their season that included a win against then-No. 6 LSU, but they closed the season with back-to-back losses to Missouri and Mississippi State. The Yellow Jackets lost two of their last three contests, though the losses were to strong foes in Clemson and Georgia. Ole Miss finished 6-6 ATS while the Yellow Jackets were 5-7 ATS. They both finished the season cold, with Georgia Tech failing to cover in four of their last five, and Ole Miss not covering in three of their final four. While the Rebels boasted a difficult schedule all year and one of the nation’s most prolific passing attacks, they’ll have to handle the Georgia Tech rushing attack that racked up 312 YPG, fifth most in the nation. These two programs have not met since the Rebels routed the Yellow Jackets 41-18 in the 1971 Peach Bowl. Georgia Tech won the other two previous meetings.

Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace (3,090, 17 TD, nine INT) had a solid year under center, completing 64.4% of his passes. He struggled in the team’s final two losses, however, failing to throw for a touchdowns, but tossing four interceptions. But he did perform well in some marquee matchups, completing 30-of-39 passes against LSU. Three receivers have more than 500 yards for the Rebels, with Donte Moncrief (53 catches, 825 yards, 5 TD) leading the way, and Ja-Mes Logan (44 catches, 583 yards, 3 TD) and Laquon Treadwell (67 catches, 557 yards, 5 TD) also posing threats. Three running backs divide the carries in this pass-first offense. I’Tavius Mathers (505 yards, 6.2 YPC, 3 TD) has the most yards, while Jeff Scott (7.4 YPC, 493 yards, 2 TD) gets the most YPC and Jaylen Walton (97 carries, 470 yards, 6 TD) has the most scores.

Running the triple-option, the Yellow Jackets offense mainly keeps the ball on the ground, and has four different players with at least 450 rushing yards. One of those players is QB Vad Lee, who struggled as a passer with 10 TD, 9 INT and a poor 47.2% completion rate. On the ground, he averaged only 2.9 YPC, but racked up 489 yards and eight touchdowns. The team’s leading rusher was David Sims (5.6 YPC, 846 yards, 11 TD) while Robert Godhigh (10.1 YPC, 694 yards, 6 TD) racked up the biggest plays. Zach Laskey (458 yards, 5.8 YPC, 7 TD) rounds out the leading rushers. Godhigh was also the team’s top receiving threat with 21 catches for 420 yards and two touchdowns. DeAndre Smelter (345 yards, 4 TD) also made some big plays through the air. The Yellow Jackets defense gives up only 3.4 YPC, but allows a hefty 7.5 yards per passing attempt.


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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

Monday's Night Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Alamo Bowl

Matchup: Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon Ducks
Venue: Alamodome
Location: San Antonio, TX
Time/TV: 6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Line: Oregon -13½, Total: 67

The Mack Brown era at Texas will come to an end on Monday night as the Longhorns play No. 10 Oregon in the Alamo Bowl.

Texas will be looking to send head coach Mack Brown out on a positive note as it faces an explosive Oregon offense. The Horns had big aspirations heading into the season, but were wildly inconsistent. They looked terrific at times, winning seven straight Big 12 games, but also struggled losing consecutive games to BYU and Ole Miss that ended their national title dreams early in the season. Texas (5-6-1 ATS) is coming off a game against Baylor, where it scored just 10 points with 217 total yards, but was able to hold the explosive Bears to only 30 points. That game will be a good preparation for the Longhorns as they go up against Marcus Mariota and the impressive Oregon offense.

Like Texas, the Ducks had dreams of making the national title, but were unable to reach that game after losing to Stanford followed by a shocking 42-16 loss to 19.5-point underdog Arizona. However, there is still a lot of firepower on the Ducks (7-5 ATS), but they must get their offense clicking back at the early season pace. Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its past four games, where it averaged only 29 points per game.

Mack Brown is 10-4 in bowl games in his tenure at Texas, including 7-1 in the past eight bowls, with the only loss coming in the BCS National Championship game following the 2009 season. Texas struggled on the offensive end, ranking 36th in rushing (198 YPG), 56th in scoring (31.2 PPG) and 72nd in passing (225 YPG). One of the biggest reasons for its struggles has been the inability to get consistent play from the quarterback position. Quarterback Case McCoy (57% completions, 1,885 passing yards, 11 TD, 11 INT) showed his ability to be good at times, but also really struggled at times with five interceptions in late season losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor.

The backfield of the Longhorns could not consistently stay healthy all season, but RB Malcolm Brown (774 rush yards, 9 TD) showed that he can be the star running back on a team. After Johnathan Gray (780 yards and 4 TD) went out to injury a month ago, Brown averaged 111.3 rushing YPG, while facing eight or nine defenders in the box. The Longhorns must get a big game from WR Mike Davis, (49 catches, 715 yards and 8 TD), as his big-play ability can help open up rushing lanes for Brown and the Longhorns. While the offense needs to play well, this game is going to be decided on whether or not the Longhorns can slow down the Ducks offense. The defense is led by LB Steve Edmond (73 tackles, two interceptions and one sack), but he is doubtful after lacerating his liver in the game against Texas Tech. Safety Adrian Phillips (71 tackles and two interceptions) has proven to be a very talented player, but the Ducks offense is as good as the Longhorns have seen all year.

Oregon ranks third in the nation in scoring (46.8 PPG), ninth in rushing (278 YPG) and 20th in passing (295 YPG). Quarterback Marcus Mariota (3412 pass yards, 30 TD, 4 INT) is one of the top players in the country. He also does a lot with his legs, rushing for 582 yards and nine touchdowns. His ability to make plays all over the field makes him nearly impossible to slow down on defense. His favorite receiver all season has been WR Josh Huff (57 catches, 1,036 yards and 11 TD). Huff has terrific speed, and is able to get behind the defense for the big gain at any moment. Oregon has a lot of guys that can run the ball, as Byron Marshall (155 carries, 995 yards and 14 TD), Thomas Tyner (109 carries, 689 yards and 9 TD) and even De’Anthony Thomas (93 carries, 581 yards and 8 TD) are all threats to score any time they touch the ball.

However, the Oregon defense has been terrific this season as well, ranking 25th in the nation in scoring defense (21.6 PPG). Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (78 tackles and 3 INT) is a lockdown cornerback that has the ability to completely take the opposing team's best receiver out of the game. Look for him to match up with Davis through most of the game, in what should be a terrific battle. This game has a chance to be the best non-BCS game, as the Longhorns players have talked about how much they want to win this game for Brown. If they are able to control their emotions early and not get down when the Ducks offense scores, then Texas has a great chance to win the game.

Holiday Bowl

Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium
Location: San Diego, CA
Time/TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Line: Arizona State -14, Total: 71

After losing the Pac-12 Championship at home, Arizona State attempts to finish its season strong against slumping Texas Tech in Saturday's Holiday Bowl.

The Red Raiders started the season off in spectacular fashion, winning their first seven games SU and going 5-2 ATS. They then went on to face a brutal schedule and finished 0-5 (SU and ATS) in their final five games when they were outscored by 20.6 PPG and turned the ball over three times in all five defeats. However, Texas Tech has won a bowl game in each of the past three seasons SU, including a 34-31 victory in last year’s Meineke Car Care Bowl versus Minnesota as a 13.5-point favorite. But they have gone only 1-3 ATS in their past four bowl games.

The Sun Devils put together a tremendous season, eventually ending with them hosting the Pac-12 Championship game, but losing 38-14 against a tough Stanford team. They went 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS) in regular season games against conference opponents, with big wins against USC (62-41) and UCLA (38-33). Last season, ASU defeated Navy by a score of 62-28 in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, their first bowl win since 2005. These two programs have played only once since 1992, when Arizona State defeated the Red Raiders 31-13 back in 1999. With QB Baker Mayfield leaving the team, freshman QB Davis Webb will once again be under center for Texas Tech while star HB Marion Grice (foot) will be a game-time decision for the Sun Devils.

Texas Tech has been one of the top passing teams in the country and averaged 392.0 passing YPG (2nd in nation) this year. QB Baker Mayfield made news when he became the first walk-on true freshman to start a season opener for a BCS school, but has since decided to enroll at Oklahoma and attempt to walk-on to their team next season. In the wake of his decision, QB Davis Webb has reclaimed the starting job where he's done quite well, throwing for 2,315 yards (7.2 YPA) with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions over nine games played. He threw for 400+ yards in three different games on the season, but did not play the last two as Mayfield reclaimed the starting job before leaving the team. HB Kenny Williams (480 yards, 8 TD) split time with fellow HB DeAndre Washington (399 yards, 4 TD) who is questionable for this matchup with an undisclosed injury.

The running game was certainly not the focal point for Texas Tech as it ranked 107th in the nation (121.3 YPG) on the ground. NFL hopeful TE Jace Amaro caught 98 passes for 1,240 yards (12.7 avg.) and 7 TD on the season while putting together four games in the middle of the season where he went over eight receptions and 115 yards in each game. WR Eric Ward also had a big season with 904 yards on 80 catches (11.3 avg.) and eight touchdowns. The defense gave up 31.2 PPG to their opponents (90th in nation) and allowed 48.6 PPG over their five-game losing skid to finish off the regular season.

The Sun Devils were lightning in a bottle all season thanks to an offense that averaged 276.8 YPG through the air (29th in nation) and 184.0 YPG on the ground (47th in FBS) while scoring 41.0 PPG (10th in nation). QB Taylor Kelly was the provider of much of this offense as he threw for 3,510 yards (7.7 YPA) with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while also adding 473 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. His performance slowed down after the Halloween game versus Washington State though, as he averaged only 199.8 passing YPG and five total touchdowns through the air in his last five games, including the Pac-12 Championship Game loss to Stanford.

HB Marion Grice should be able to start on Monday. He ran for 996 yards (5.2 YPC) and 14 touchdowns despite missing the last two games of the regular season. He added a lot to the passing game as well with 438 receiving yards on 50 catches (8.8 avg.) and six touchdowns. WR Jaelen Strong (1,094 rec. yards, 7 TD) had seven games of 100+ yards on the season, but had only two catches for 27 yards in the Pac-12 title game. Arizona State boasts two of the better defenders in the upcoming NFL draft with DT Will Sutton (46 tackles, 4 sacks) and LB Chris Young (103 tackles, 7.5 sacks), but did not do great in the high-octane Pac-12, allowing 25.8 PPG to their opponents on the season.


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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

Alamo Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Oregon vs. Texas

The Alamo Bowl in San Antonio will feature Texas in its home state taking on Oregon from out of the Pac-12. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of late Sunday afternoon, most betting shops had Oregon (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 68. Gamblers can take the Longhorns on the money line for a +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

Oregon has been a double-digit favorite in every game this season. The Ducks have failed to cover the spread in four straight games and five of their last six. They barely beat Oregon St. 36-35 as 24-point home ‘chalk’ in their regular-season finale. Marcus Mariota’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Josh Huff with 29 seconds remaining gave Oregon the Civil War victory. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Oregon’s quest to garner a fifth consecutive BCS bowl bid was thwarted by a pair of losses at Stanford and at Arizona. The Ducks are 3-2 both SU and ATS in their last five postseason appearances, including a 35-17 win over Kansas St. as a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

For the season, Mariota threw for 3,412 yards with an incredible 30/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also ran for 582 yards and nine TDs, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Huff was his favorite target, hauling in 57 catches for 1,036 yards and 11 TDs.

Texas (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) will be playing its last game for Mack Brown, who is stepping down after compiling a 158-47 record over 16 seasons. But Brown’s teams have gone just 30-20 over the last four seasons, prompting an outcry from fans for his ouster.

Texas had a chance to earn a share of the Big 12 title going into its regular-season finale, but it took a 30-10 beatdown at Baylor as a 17.5-point underdog. The offense generated just 217 yards, as QB Case McCoy struggled with a pair of interceptions and only 54 yards passing.

For the season, McCoy completed 57.4 percent of his throws for 1,885 yards with an 11/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He threw five picks in a pair of late-season defeats, including three interceptions in a 38-13 home loss to Oklahoma St.

Texas has been an underdog four times this year, going 2-2 both SU and ATS. --The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in the Longhorns’ last seven games. They saw the ‘under’ go 7-5 overall this year.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Oregon, which have seen its games played to an average combined score of 68.3.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, December 30

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Texas vs Oregon

Oregon stumbling down the stretch with a pair of losses to Stanford and Arizona finished 10-2 (7-5 ATS) on the campaign. Lead by QB Marcus Mariota (30 TD) the Ducks offense was nothing short of outstanding raking up 46.8 points/game on a nation second-best 573.1 total yards/game. On the other side of the ball Ducks played solid defense allowing just 21.6 points/game. Texas with QB Case McCoy taking over for injured David Ash in October lead Horns to an 8-4 (6-6 ATS) record behind 31.2 points/game while it's defense surrendered 25.5 per/contest. Key Betting Trends: Ducks have dropped it's last four vs the number but have covered last two and 4-of-6 Bowl games. Horns are 3-7-1 ATS last eleven neutral site games, 6-10 ATS last sixteen getting points but they're 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a Pac-12 opponent.

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