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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

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Charlotte Bobcats + over Utah JazzFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bobcats have lost back-to-back games but they were defeated by just four against Oklahoma City, holding the Thunder to just 89 points and then Saturday they lost in overtime in Atlanta in the second of back-to-back games. The Bobcats are the #2 team in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte should enter this matchup hungry coming off a loss to Utah at home last week, a game Charlotte had a rebounding edge but shot poorly at the line and from 3-point range. Despite some recent signs of improvement Utah is still just 9-24 S/U on the season including only 4-10 S/U in home games. Utah is dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Jazz are only nominally superior to Charlotte on offense. There is nearly a five percent gap in the field goal percentage allowed for the season between these teams and Charlotte has been a dominant underdog this season, going 16-5 ATS this season as a dog. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. losing teams while the Jazz have struggled against fellow losing squads, going 2-6 ATS including just 0-3 ATS at home in those more favorable matchups. This spread suggests only a slight edge in valuation for the Bobcats but the numbers suggest a massive chasm between these teams and unlike most squads that visit Salt Lake City, Charlotte has recent revenge motivation while also entering this game off two tough losses to quality teams.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

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OREGON -14 over TexasFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is it for Texas Head Coach Mack Brown a class act who has done a great job at Texas but, as we wrote about in the Bondi Bulletin in September, was out-recruited and out-coached over the last few years to many times. Once Oregon's bid for a national championship went down the drain with a loss to Stanford the Ducks slept walked through wins over Utah and Oregon State and got pounded by Arizona. But our Oregon insiders have told us that the Ducks have had 3 good weeks of practice and Oregon Head Coach Mark Helfrich has confided to friends that he can't wait to get back on the field and show the country "the real roll it up Ducks." Oregon's up-tempo spread offense is similar to Baylor's and the Bears rolled up 508 total yards in a 30-10 win over the Longhorns in the regular-season finale. Similar result today. Ducks spoil Mack's retirement party.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

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Texas Tech vs. Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas Tech +14.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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How about these Red Raiders, they opened the season with seven straight wins (4 in the Big-12) and then the lose their final five games all in conference play. Arizona State who was favored in the PAC-12 Championship Game over Stanford have been 'heavy' favorites all year. They were favored by 5 over Wisconsin and needed officials help to win (no cover). The Sun Devils were expecting to be playing in the Rose bowl and San Diego is a major disappointment as they play to day's before New Years! Both these clubs have high-powered offenses and defenses that can be exploited. I look for a high scoring affair.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

River City Sharps

Mississippi -3

This bowl game is a story of two teams that both struggled to finish out the regular season. Ole Miss started the season 3-0, highlighted by an early-season win over Texas. Georgia Tech also started the year 3-0, highlighted by a convincing 38-14 win over Duke. Towards the end of the season, however, it seems like Paul Johnson had lost his team and Tech wasn't playing the string out well. Obviously, Tech wants to run the ball and the Ole Miss defense hasn't been particularly good at stopping the pass. This ganme is a clear contrast in styles, but we are going to lean towards the SEC team in this spot. Ole Miss HC Freeze is 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of the Rebels and he is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. With a month to prepare, Ole Miss figures out a way to stop the run, the only way Tech can really beat you. Make sure you get this line at -3 or better...don't get hooked!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Chris Jordan

My free play for Monday night is on the West coast, and out of the West Coast Conference, where I like Loyola-Marymount minus the small number against the San Diego Toreros. This does have the makings of a good game, but ya know, after seeing how well the Lions did against BYU the other night, I have to believe coach Max Good has his troops buying into his philosophies.

Talk about a meeting of great coaches - two great guys - when Good and BYU coach Dave Rose clashed the other night, you're talking about two of college basketball's best overall personalities. It was the Lions' third-straight win after a brutal four-game stretch of playing away from home, and going 1-3 in the process.

San Diego has been hit or miss since a 5-0 start to the season, and comes in having lost four of its last six, including Saturday's setback in Malibu, 75-64, to Pepperdine. The Toreros started above Los Angeles for their game with the Waves, and have made their way down the PCH to L.A., for this game tonight, on their way back to San Diego.

On the flipside, the Lions have been home since Dec. 17, will have the home crowd boosting morale and momentum and they'll be looking to open conference play 2-0 before hitting the road for four straight conference games.

This one makes sense, with all the right components and intangibles in place. Lay the home chalk.

3♦ LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Jeff Benton

Monday freebie is the Suns plus the points at the Clippers.

Phoenix has been money in the bank on the road this season, as they hit Lob City having covered 11 of their 14 road games this year.

The Suns have been a pretty tough out in general lately, as they have won outright in 9 of their last 11 games overall.

As for the Clippers, they have protected their home floor to a tune of 13-2 straight up, but the linemakers have made it tough on them, as the Clips are just 8-7 against the spread in those home games this year.

This is the first meeting of the season, and while the Clippers have taken 3 of the last 4 meetings straight up, it is the Suns that hold the 6-4 straight up advantage the last 10 times these teams have faced one another.

Grab the points as the Suns stay competitive once again.

2♦ PHOENIX

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Timberwolves to continue their dominance over the Dallas Mavericks in Minneapolis.

I'm aware that the Mavs have a better overall record than Minnesota, but we all know how bad the Mavs are on the road and the only place Minnesota seems to be able to win is at home (9-4).

The Wolves have already beaten Dallas twice this year (once in Dallas, which is rare) and have taken six of the last nine meetings... regardless of venue. Granted, they do play better at home but they clearly aren't scared to go to Dallas and play.

In their two wins this year, the Wolves have absolutely run through the porous Dallas D, scoring 116 and 112 points, forgetting defense and simply trying to outscore and outrebound the Mavs and let the rest take care of itself.

And speaking of rebounding... how big of an advantage on the boards do you think Minnesota has? Let me just put it to you this way... Kevin Love leads his team in total rebounds with 448. Over 30 games that's pretty freaking good.

Dallas's leading rebounder? Shawn Marion. How many? 267. You get my point.

Minnesota keeps it's winning streak against Dallas going tonight with a 110-100 win.

4♦ MINNESOTA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Scott Delaney

My free play for Monday night is in the NBA, where I am playing the Los Angeles Clippers against the Phoenix Suns.

I would assume most sports bettors would like the Over, or the Underdog in this one, thus, I'll be the contrarian and play the right side of this game - the home favored clippers.

I know Phoenix has won four of its last five games, including a 115-101 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers this past Saturday, covering as a 10.5-point favorite, but what I don't like is how mediocre this team while playing with luggage.

The Suns are shooting par on the road this season, with a 7-7 SU mark, and that includes a 5-6 mark versus Western Conference opponents. So as good as the Suns have been of late, the fact they like to get out on the break and even the fact they've somewhat owned this series - it plays into the Clippers' hands.

Los Angeles likes the uptempo game, it's playing at home - where it is 13-2 straight-up this season - and that includes a 10-1 mark against Western Conference teams.

If the Suns think they can just waltz in and challenge the league leader in home scoring, as the Clippers average 111 points at 1111 S. Figueroa Street (yeah, I threw the street address in there purposely since it matches the average), they might want to figure out a different strategy  than getting in a shootout.

Don't get sucked into a trap here, as the Clippers have covered five of six after one day's rest, four of five in intradivision play, seven of nine against Western Conference foes and six of eight overall.

Lay the home chalk.

2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Brad Wilton

Portland is my free play tonight, as I like the Blazers to shake off a tough loss at home to Miami their last time out with the road win and cover at New Orleans.

The Blazers were a 3-point home court winner over the Pelicans just before Christmas in a game New Orleans took against the spread. That close shave will have Portland on guard in the Big Easy, as they know full well the Pelicans are not going to roll over and die in this spot.

New Orleans does enter with a 3-0-1 spread mark their last 4 times on the floor, and with their cover in Rip City on the 21st are also 5-0 the last 5 meetings versus the Blazers spread-wise!

Those numbers are solid, but also consider that Portland has proven they can play away from home this year, going 12-3 straight up on the road, and 10-5 against the spread in those road games.

Portland may be on an 0-5 series spread run, but they have won 6 of the last 8 in the series straight up, and with this game priced at a reasonable number, I see no reason to think the Blazers won't be able to notch both the straight up and against the spread victory.

2♦ PORTLAND

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Brett Atkins

My complimentary winner for Monday is in the NBA, where I am playing the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points at home against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Anyone else wondering why the line is so low, with a Portland team that is 24-6 on the year, against the Pelicans, who are 13-15? It has nothing to do with home and away intangibles, cause I've seen much bigger lines with road teams.

These two just met less than 10 days ago, in Portland, and the Pelicans challenged the Blazers in a three-point loss.

And personally, I think the Pelicans can win this game outright, after Portland just lost a heartbreaker, 108-107, to the Miami Heat Saturday night at home in the Moda Center. Chris Bosh's 3-pointer as time expired might have been the worst thing to happen to the Blazers, who now have a vicious sandwich game in the Big Easy.

Portland follows this game with a trip to Oklahoma City tomorrow night, and my mind tells me the Blazers are still stinging from Bosh's rainbow trey, and are more concerned about tomorrow's game against the Thunder, a game that could determine first place in the Northwest Division.

New Orleans ranks fifth in the NBA in steals, averaging 8.89 per game, and I think you're going to see it playing aggressive basketball tonight, looking to rattle the Blazers at home, where the Pelicans hold a 9-7 advantage in this series.

Take the home pup in this game.

3♦ NEW ORLEANS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Jack Jones

New Orleans Pelicans +3

The Portland Trail Blazers are way overvalued due to their 24-6 start this season. They should not be a 3-point favorite at New Orleans, which is playing much better since Anthony Davis returned from injury.

These teams just met on December 21 with the Blazers coming away with a 110-107 home win as an 8-point favorite. That will have the Pelicans in revenge mode tonight, and I look for them to win outright to get their payback.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series of late. The home team has gone a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. The Pelicans are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers as well.

Portland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. New Orleans is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall. The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes. Bet the Pelicans Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

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OTTAWA -½ +138 over WashingtonFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Capitals certainly deserved a better fate in Buffalo yesterday after outshooting the Sabres 50-17 in a 2-1 OT loss. That’s quite a change because it’s usually the Capitals that are being badly outshot while winning games. Now Washington will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. We keep insisting that the Capitals are going to regress and nothing in its play over the past month suggests otherwise. The Capitals join the Maple Leafs, Sabres, Flames and Oilers as one of the bottom five teams in shots allowed on net per game. Is there a correlation between winning/losing and shots allowed per game? Damn right there is. The teams that have allowed the least amount of shots on net per game are Chicago, Anaheim, Vancouver, St. Louis, Los Angeles, New Jersey and Pittsburgh. The teams with that have allowed the most are Toronto, Washington, Edmonton, Calgary and Buffalo. Right there we have the best teams on top and the worst teams on the bottom and it’s no coincidence. It’s been like that forever. The proof is in the pudding that the Capitals cannot sustain their winning percentage when they keep giving up twice as many quality scoring chances than they are creating.
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The Senators have won back-to-back home games against the Penguins and Bruins while scored nine times in doing so. Having a roster that is loaded with talent and underachieving the entire year, Ottawa may be ready to make an inevitable move up the standings. The Sens have defeated the Capitals five in a row and they should make it six as long as Craig Anderson doesn’t choke. The Sens could have a big second half, as they are once again beginning to impose their will on the opposition in much the same way as they did last season.
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Detroit +103 over NASHVILLEFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Predators are still a grind it out, structured team that seldom gets away from that style. They usually hang around and never stop working but some distractions could change that for this game. The HBO 24/7 cameras are rolling and the crew will be walking around Bridgestone Arena all day filming everything and covering the game as well. Can the Predators stay calm and not pay attention to all the bright lights? Probably not. Should Nashville stray from its game and try to showcase themselves, they are likely to get beat and it sure doesn’t help that the spotlight will be on one of their two rookie goaltenders, who combined have some of the worst stats in the game. Nashville has allowed 23 goals against over their past six games and many of those goals were of the soft variety.
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The Red Wings are not having a good year but they have been decimated by injuries and they have one of the best road records in the NHL at 12-3-3. The Red Wings have many healthy bodies back including Henrik Zetterberg and all of their d-men. Detroit has allowed 23 shots on net or fewer in three of the past four games and that coincides with the return of their defensemen. Not surprisingly, Detroit won all three of those games. Unlike the Preds, the Red Wings are used to the bright lights with a slew of players that have collectively appeared in as many big games as any group of players in the league. The Red Wings will not be intimidated by it (not to mention they’ve thrived since the cameras started rolling) while the Preds may be shaking in their blue suede skates.
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VANCOUVER -½ +116 over PhiladelphiaSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Flyers have had some big rallies recently both for and against. On Saturday night they rallied from two down to defeat the Oilers in OT. Prior to the break, Philly rallied from a three-goal third period deficit to defeat the Jackets. In a recent game against the Caps, Philadelphia blew a three-goal lead with under 12 minutes left in the third before succumbing in OT. Also in a recent game against Columbus, the Flyers were outscored 4-1 in the third period in a 6-3 loss. The point is, Philadelphia is an erratic team that is all over the place in terms of their defensive play and lack of structure. That style is not likely to benefit them against the well-structured Canucks.
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Vancouver came off the break and a full weeks rest in a typical 2-0 victory last night in Calgary. The Canucks figure to be sharper here in the second game back. The Canucks don’t give up much. They have allowed two goals or fewer in regulation time in 11 of their past 12 games. In half of those games, the Canucks allowed one goal or less and in a recent three-game set against Carolina, Edmonton and Boston, they outscored that trio 12-2. Vancouver has won three in a row and while allowing three goals against and that includes a 3-2 OT win over Chicago. Vancouver is thriving again with a relentless fore-check, strong defense and great goaltending and that’s a style these Flyers are not comfortable playing against.     
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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

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Vancouver Canucks -132FFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canucks improve to 23-11-6 on the year with a 2-0 victory last night vs Calgary where they out shot the Flames 30-18. The Flyers are playing much better hockey right now as they've won 4 of 5 to improve to 18-16-4 on the season. They are just 7-9-4 on the road this year, while the Canucks are 11-5-3 at home. Playing the second of a back to back shouldn't bother Vancouver as last night was their first game back since the break, and they aren't traveling far from Calgary. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 games on 0 days rest. The Canucks have won 10 of their last 12 games overall and are 5-1 in their last 6 vs Eastern Conference opponents. They have also won 6 straight home games and are 44-17 in their last 61 home games vs a team with a road winning % under .400. The Flyers are just 4-9 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record, 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record. These two teams met back in October in Philadelphia and the Canucks managed to win that game on the road by a score of 3-2. The elite teams in the Western Conference seem to be taking care of most of their games vs the Eastern Conference teams, and with the Canucks winners of 10 of their last 12 games and 6 straight at home I like that trend to continue tonight. Take the Canucks at a generous price at home.
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Detroit Red Wings +111FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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For most teams 18-13-9 is a pretty good start, for the Red Wings, it feels like it has been a losing season almost. However, with the Winter Classic in their sights on New Years, the Wings are beginning to get healthy at the right time. Goalie Jimmy Howard could make his first start since weeks ago, and Henrik Zetterberg returned from a herniated disk against the Panthers Saturday night. Zetterberg made his presence felt right away, scoring in his first game back. If Howard is able to go, it is good news, as he has a 3-1 record and 1.01 GAA in his last four games against the Predators. In addition, forward Justin Abdelkader should be returning from a concussion as well. Darren Helm, who has been on the IR since early December, also may be ready to go tonight against Nashville. Traveling to Nashville shouldn't bother the Wings too much, as they sport a terrific 12-3-0-3 record on the road. The Wings averages aren't spectacular at 2.55 goals per game and 2.63 against, but keep in mind, they have been without their starting goaltender for a great portion of the season, and one of their most dynamic offensive players. For a team that notoriously prides itself on playing stingy defense has been anything but lately. During a four-game stretch of losses from the 19th to the 27th, the Preds allowed in four or more goals in each outing. The goals aren't coming, which isn't unusual for them at 2.28 per game, but that won't work when you're struggling to keep the puck out of your own net. Nashville has dropped five out of their last six games. I expect a healthier Red Wings squad to add to their misery tonight. I think the Wings are dogs in this spot because of the look ahead spot to the Winter Classic, but I think they will be fine away from the hoopla in Detroit. I'll take the Red Wings at what I think is a nice price.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

River City Sharps

Oklahoma St -25

The Colonials from Robert Morris travel to Oklahoma St to take on the #6 Cowboys. They are in the top 10 in scoring avg over 86 ppg and shoot about 50%. They have an advantage here on the glass avg over 38 boards compared to 32 for the Colonials and play good D as well holding opponents to less than 38% shooting. The Colonials have decent numbers avg 74.5 ppg and shoot just over 44% but they don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys. It’s a big number, but the Sharps actually see some value here with the home team.

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Dave Price

Dallas Mavericks +4

The Mavs have lost their first two meetings with Minnesota so they will be very focused here. They check in off a blowout victory in Chicago, which is a good sign considering they are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is coming off a lopsided victory over the Bucks but is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a win and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. Dallas has been a terrific investment on the road where it is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games overall and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus teams that have a home winning percentage greater than .600. The road team is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings in this series, and the Mavericks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Steve Rosen

Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons    
Play: Washington Wizards +3

Some might call tonights game for Detroit revenge after getting destroyed by the Wizards 106-82. Wash has covered the last 4 out of 5 ATS games on the road! Detroit is 1-3 ATS at home. After watching the game last night it is clear, Washington is on fire and knows Detroit's game.The Wizards have won four of five, and their 24-point plastering of the Pistons on Saturday marked their largest margin of victory this season. Detroit has dropped three straight and five of six at home and has been out of sorts in its two games since Christmas, failing to get back on transition defense and playing weak interior defense.

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