Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

DUNKEL INDEX

Oregon vs. Texas
The Ducks close out their season in tonight's Alamo Bowl against a Texas team that is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog of 10 1/2 to 21 points. Oregon is the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 21. Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-13 1/2)

Game 231-232: Middle Tennessee State vs. Navy (11:45 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 77.327; Navy 86.864
Dunkel Line: Navy by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 6; 55
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-6); Under

Game 233-234: Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech (3:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 94.954; Georgia Tech 96.029
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1; 61
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+3); Over

Game 235-236: Oregon vs. Texas (6:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 116.722; Texas 95.922
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 21; 63
Vegas Line: Oregon by 13 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-13 1/2); Under

Game 237-238: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 114.147; Texas Tech 87.211
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 27; 65
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 14; 71
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-14); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Dallas at Minnesota
The Timberwolves host the Mavericks tonight and look to improve on their 8-3 ATS record in the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Minnesota is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Timberwolves favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2)

Game 701-702: Washington at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.647; Detroit 115.697
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 202
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 703-704: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.573; Minnesota 125.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Chicago at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.815; Memphis 115.483
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 182
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5); Under

Game 707-708: Portland at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.886; New Orleans 118.365
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 212
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3); Over

Game 709-710: Miami at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.471; Denver 115.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1; 201
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 711-712: Charlotte at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.136; Utah 117.336
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 2 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2 1/2); Ovver

Game 713-714: Phoenix at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.344; LA Clippers 129.237
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 207
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 211
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8); Under

NHL

Detroit at Nashville
The Red Wings head to Nashville tonight to take on a Predators team that is 3-7 in its last 10 home games. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105)

Game 51-52: Washington at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.086; Ottawa 12.601
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-135); Under

Game 53-54: Detroit at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.770; Nashville 9.986
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 55-56: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.672; Chicago 11.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+125); Over

Game 57-58: Philadelphia at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.785; Vancouver 12.478
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Virginia at Tennessee
The Cavaliers take their 1-5 ATS record in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record to Knoxville tonight to face a Volunteers team that comes in with a 7-4 mark. Tennessee is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Volunteers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2)

Game 715-716: Rice at Texas (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 49.315; Texas 62.635
Dunkel Line: Texas by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+17 1/2)

Game 717-718: Delaware at St. Bonaventure (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 55.936; St. Bonaventure 63.168
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-3 1/2)

Game 719-720: Virginia at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 65.479; Tennessee 69.990
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2)

Game 721-722: Marshall at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 52.092; South Carolina 56.561
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+8 1/2)

Game 723-724: Toledo at Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 58.814; Kansas 77.070
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 18
Vegas Line: Kansas by 14
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-14)

Game 725-726: Ball State at James Madison (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 49.284; James Madison 50.470
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 1
Vegas Line: James Madison by 7
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+7)

Game 727-728: Mississippi at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 65.612; Western Kentucky 57.320
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-1 1/2)

Game 729-730: Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 60.566; Oklahoma 70.561
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 10
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 5
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-5)

Game 731-732: San Francisco at Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 54.869; Gonzaga 73.219
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 733-734: St. Louis at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 67.781; Vanderbilt 62.209
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3)

Game 735-736: Santa Clara at Portland (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 54.727; Portland 59.770
Dunkel Line: Portland by 5
Vegas Line: Portland by 8
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+8)

Game 737-738: San Diego at Loyola-Marymount (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 53.609; Loyola-Marymount 63.662
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 10
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 5
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-5)

Game 739-740: BYU at Pepperdine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 70.025; Pepperdine 54.100
Dunkel Line: BYU by 16
Vegas Line: BYU by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-6 1/2)

Game 741-742: St. Mary's at Pacific (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 62.268; Pacific 65.565
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+1 1/2)

Game 747-748: Fordham at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 50.366; Siena 53.699
Dunkel Line: Siena by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1 1/2)

Game 749-750: NC State at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.348; NC-Greensboro 43.628
Dunkel Line: NC State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: NC State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-11 1/2)

Game 751-752: Tennessee-Martin at Jacksonville State (8:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 42.495; Jacksonville State 44.243
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+7)

Game 753-754: Furman at UC-Davis (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 39.688; UC-Davis 48.612
Dunkel Line: UC-Davis by 9
Vegas Line: UC-Davis by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (-7 1/2)

Game 761-762: Robert Morris at Oklahoma State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 50.784; Oklahoma State 73.335
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 25
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+25)

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Texas / Oregon Over 67.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s pretty much been established over the last month: Oregon really doesn’t care about the rest of the season. Ever since the Ducks lost to Stanford they’ve essentially be resigned to the fact they can't accomplish anything new as they failed to fulfill BSC title game aspirations. What followed after that loss to the Cardinal was several uninspiring performances. And while I do think they will be more focused for a bowl game, I think that apathy of playing in the Holiday Bowl is going to result in a lot of points, both surrendered by their defense and scored on Texas. I think the winner of this game has 40+, and I do think this one will be closer than the line suggests. Texas will compete in the second half for an outright win, but the total is the better play in this one. Play the over between these two teams.

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Mississippi vs. Georgia TechFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Mississippi -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ole Miss is led by quarterback Bo Wallace who passed for 3,090 yards with 17 TD's and the Rebels have one of the best defensive players in the country in defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche. Georgia Tech will try to run the ball with David Sims as their passing game has struggled this year. Ole Miss is 18-5 ATS against non conference games and Georgia Tech has lost 7 of 8 Bowl games.

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Mississippi vs. Georgia TechFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Mississippi -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech is one of those teams that usually plays poorly in bowl games. The main reason is teams have time to prepare for their triple option offense. They come into this game off a terible loss to Georgia in a game they blew a big lead and ultimately lost in OT. Their offensive stats look impressive, but you need to take that with a grain of salt. Ole Miss should be able to hit some big plays to their big WR's as the Yellow Jackets secondary is a bit weak, giving up 7.5 ypa. Ole Miss has been solid all around this season, including the kicking game, a nice accomplishment since they play in the SEC West. They have bigger things on thier minds next season, and this game is the starting point.

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Middle Tennessee State vs. NavyFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +7FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Armed Forces Bowl features the Naval Academy going up against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee really came together in the second half of the season as the offense caught fire and went on to average 42.6 points per game in their last five games - all wins. Navy closed the season with four straight wins, and there is no doubt what they are going to do here. They are going to is run the triple option on almost every down. Middle Tennessee does not see that offense, but has had ample time to prepare for it here. Last year they went to Georgia Tech and faced a similar offense, beating Tech 49-28. They held the Yellow Jackets to 7 points in the second half, and overall Georgia Tech managed just 238 yards on 53 carries at 4.5 yards per carry. That game will serve as a solid effort against the similar Navy offense. Navy often sneaks up on teams with the triple option, but the Bowl season gives opposing coaches several weeks to prepare for it. As a result, Navy has been crushed in their last two Bowl games. They are just 4-9 ATS following a 20+ point win, and Middle Tennessee has the offense to go toe-to-toe with Navy here. Under head coach Rick Stockstill, MTSU is 29-18 ATS following a win. Play on Middle Tennessee.

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Texas Tech vs Arizona StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Play UNDER this high total as the ASU defense gives up huge passing yards but one of the fewest in the NCAA at points allowed in Yards Per Point. ASU gave up multiple 300 yard passing games this year and covered and won every game, holding these 300 yard teams out of the end zone. This total is based on a shootout that won't occur.

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Jimmy Boyd
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Texas Tech +14½
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Texas Tech’s five game skid to end the regular season only created value in this matchup with Arizona State. The Red Raiders finished the year with a very tough stretch of schedule facing three ranked teams in heir final five games, and all five of those opponents also made a bowl game this year. The Red Raiders are receiving way too many points in this matchup with the Sun Devils. Arizona State has not been a very strong team defensively this year, and I expect the Red Raiders high powered offense to put up some very big numbers in this game. Texas Tech averages 35.7 points per game this year, and they have gained 513 total yards per game.
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Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. They are facing a Sun Devils team that has a history of being overvalued in bowl games. The Sun Devils have a 1-4 ATS record in their last five bowl games, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played in the month of December. Arizona State is coming off an embarrassing blowout loss at home against a Stanford team that had their number all season. The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. I just don’t see the talent gap between these teams coming anywhere close to the two touchdown number the Red Raiders are being spotted, and that makes Texas Tech a very strong value play.

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Art Aronson
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Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons    
Play: Detroit Pistons -2½
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The Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards play the second half of home and home with each other there and I expect the Pistons to get some redemption in Mo-Town. Granted the Wizards stomped the Pistons in DC 106-82. The Wizards got the Pistons on the back end of a back to back situation the other night and were able to get a big win at home but that won’t be case in this situation. Josh Smith sure has been struggling of late and that has hurt the Pistons but a return home after three straight road games could really cure that. Note that Detroit is 4-1 straight up in games against Washington at home and that plays a big role in my expectation of a win here. The Wizards are 6-9 on the road this season and while the Pistons don’t have the best home record you have to think that could turn around at any moment here. Consider laying the short points here with Detroit.

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Freddy Wills
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Texas vs. Oregon    
Play: Texas +14½
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Oregon was not as good as we all thought while I don't think Texas was as bad as many think. We are getting some value here when you talk about the talent level on both sides of the field is pretty even with next level players. I think we could see something shocking here with Mack Brown coaching in his last game. Texas has been very successful in bowl games under Brown and this would be the icing on the cake of a great career.
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I think we are getting 14.5 points because the idea that Texas struggled vs. the run which is true when you look at the BYU and Ole Miss game, but after that this defense stepped up and was not as bad as their season stats indicate. I also think the code is out there on how to defeat this Oregon team as they nearly lost 3 of their last 4. The extra time and the excitement of playing for Brown one last time has to have this team pumped up.
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I also think Texas will be able to run the ball here. Oregon's run defense allowed over 4 ypc in their last 4 games combined and I look for that to continue in a game being played in Texas. Texas is also 5-1 ATS I their last 6 vs. PAC 12 while the Big 12 has dominated this bowl game.

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Rob Vinciletti
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Blazers vs. Pelicans
Play: Over 211
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This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the over form non division road favorites of 4 or less like Portland with a total that is 180 or higher, if they lost to the spread by 7 or more points as a 5 or more point home favorite in their last game and scored 100 or more points, and their opponent was a road dog in their last game. These games have flown over the total 15 of 17 times and the last 8 times since 2007. Portland Has gone over in 13 of the last 14 and 10 of 12 times after allowing 105 or more points. When they play a team that scored 99 or more 14 of 15 played over the posted total. The Pelicans have flown over the total 8 of 10 times after they allowed 105 or more points. In their only ,meeting this season 217 points were scored. More of the same tonight. Take the Over.


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Rickie Robbins
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Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers    
Play: Phoenix Suns +8
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The Los Angeles Clippers collide with the Phoenix Suns from STAPLES Center on Monday night.
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Head to head, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Suns on the other hand are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games, 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference and 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
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I apologize for the shortness of this article, but I'm not feeling well so I'm going to cut straight to the chase.
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It appears that the Phoenix Suns are still getting no love from the people in Vegas that create these lines for every game. Realise this. The Suns have covered in 11 of their 14 road games this season, which includes wins in Denver and Houston, as well as taking San Antonio and Oklahoma City right down to the final minute. They are three games below the Los Angeles Clippers in the standings, but that's only because the Clipps have played three more games than Phoenix. Who knows, if the Suns had played three more games, they too could also be 21-11. Not only that, Phoenix is 21-7-1 against the spread on the season, which would make them the premier covering team in the entire NBA. Think about that for a second.
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While LA is certainly capable of blowing teams out at home, I wasn't impressed with them at all in their home game against Utah on Saturday. Coming off back-to-back away losses by a combined six points, I would of thought the Clippers would of made light work of the Jazz, but instead they struggled to put them away all game.
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Phoenix getting eight points? I had to think about this one for all of two seconds. Also, look for Eric Bledsoe to have a little extra motivation in this one. I can't wait to see how he goes against CP3.

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Jim Feist

Wizards at Pistons
Pick: Over

We get one of those matchups I really like tonight when two teams faceoff that can score points and not keep their opponents from scoring. The Washington Wizards have seen six of their last seven games go over the total. The average (99.4) just about what they allow (100.0). However, during their recent span they have scored 102 or more in four games. And on the road they have gone over in five straight and six of their last seven. As for Detroit, they have allowed 106 or more points in six of their last eight games. And even thought their last two games have gone UNDER, before that they had gone over in 14 of 15 games. Moreover, they have gone over in eight straight home games. Two teams that will likely just be running up and down the court tonight. What surprises me is that we only get a total around 201 1/2. For two bad defensive teams it looks like we get to open another present here on Monday.

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Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. VancouverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VancouverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Vancouver Canucks will be playing at home in a back-to-back situation after shutting out the Flames in Calgary last night. The Flyers are in town, and Philly has won 4-of-5, coming off a win in Edmonton on Saturday.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Previous History - The Canucks have won 3-of-4 meetings with Philadelphia dating back to 2008. Vancouver has also won four straight when playing on back-to-back nights.
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2: Home Cookin' - The Canucks have won more home games than any other team in the NHL since their Stanley Cup Finals run in 2010, and they have won six in a row at home this season.
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3: X-Factor - Backup goalie Eddie Lack is coming off a shutout, making 18 saves in the 2-0 win over Calgary. He's now 7-2-0 with a GAA of less than 1.00 in his last four appearances.

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Jeff Scott Sports
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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Ole Miss -3 over Georgia Tech: When teams have been given time to prepare for the Triple Option of Georgia Tech they have had success vs it. Last year Tech did beat USC 21-7 in a bowl game, but still they have won just 1 of their last 8 bowl games and have been held to just 14.4 ppg in their last 5 bowl games. Teams can stop this offense with time to prepare. The Ole Miss defense is not great against the run, but better than average, ranking 54th, allowing 155 ypg on the ground for the year. The Ole Miss offense has been very good this year, ranking 23rd in yards (473.4 ypg), while scoring 30.4 ppg. Georgia Tech has been solid on defense this year, but they have struggled mightily on the road, allowing 40.8 ppg in their last 4 on the road and they did allow 41 points to SEC foe Georgia in the final game of the year and that was a bulldog offense that was without Aaron Murray. This game will be played in SEC country and I just don't see Georgia Tech coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
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Navy/ Middle Tennessee Over 56.5: The Blue Raiders come into this game very hot offensively as they scored 42.6 ppg in their lats 5 games of the regular season. They only scored 21 ppg vs bowl team this year, but the beginning of their last 5 game stretch was vs Marshall and they scored 51 points in that game.  The Navy offense has been solid all year, scoring 24.3 ppg overall, including 42 ppg in their last 5 games of the year. Navy also average 25 ppg vs bowl teams, including scoring 34 on Notre Dame. Both offenses are very good and these defenses can be scored upon. The Blue Raiders weakness on defense a run defense that ranks 84th in the nation, giving 185.8 ypg on the ground and that is not good news when your about to face the potent ground attack of the Midshippmen. For Navy, they are 85th vs the run, while the Blue Raiders come in ranked 29th in rushing. Both teams will look to defense the run here, but that should open up a few throwing lanes for some big plays down field. Navy faced just 3 bowl teams this year and they allowed 35+ in two of the three (Duke & Notre Dame), while the Blue Raiders have allowed 37 ppg in their in their 5 games vs bowl teams, giving up 34 or more in 4 of those games. Just because both teams are run based offenses doesn't mean we cant get at least 60 in this one. Both offenses will get some big plays vs theses week defenses, giving us a game that will be played in the 60's.
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2 UNIT PLAY
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Texas Tech/ Arizona State over 71.5: The ASU offense is highly explosive, as they average 41 ppg, behind a pretty balanced offense that averages 184 ypg on the ground and and 277 ypg through the air. Tough offense to stop and they will be facing a TT defense that has allowed 31.2 ppg on the year, but an even worse 48.6 ppg during their 5 game losing streak. Offensively, the Red Raiders are 9 in the nation overall and 2nd in passing, while scoring 35.7 ppg and even though Mayfield is not here, they still have Davis Webb, who threw for the same amount of yards as Mayfield did (2315) and he had 4 more TD passes (16) than Mayfield did.  Davis is more than capable of putting up big numbers in this one, even though ASU is 49th in the nation vs the pass, allowing just 221.4 ypg. ASU should be good for about 45 in this one, while TT should put up 30+ of their own. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks here.
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1 UNIT PLAY
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Texas +14.5 Over Oregon: Motivation. Who Has It? I have to believe that Texas does, after all they will be saying good buy to their head coach of 16 years after this game. They should be highly motivated for this one. Oregon on the other hand, not so much. After spending much of the year in the BCS title picture they didn't even rate a January 1st Bowl. Can't really see them up for this one. I think the Texas defense can slow them down enough to get the cover here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Steve Janus
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Dallas Mavericks +5
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The Mavericks are showing some solid value as a 5-point underdog against the Timberwolves. Dallas will certainly be motivated after losing two highly contested games to the Timberwolves earlier this season. The Mavericks are 82-55 (60%) ATS in their last 137 road games when playing with double-revenge. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is a respectable 26-15 ATS in their last 41 road games when listed as an underdog and 24-12 ATS in their last 36 road games when the total is at or greater than 200 points.
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There's also a strong system favoring Dallas. Road teams who feature are an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Middle Tenn. St. / Navy Over 56.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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An open here of 55 but a very quick move to the present number so we are getting the best number possible with this one. Both teams peaking offensively and both having some D issues at the close of the season. MTS is likely to speed play up for this one as well. I have the fair number as much higher than what is posted and therefore I am playing it on what should be a nice weather day in Fort Worth for some offensive football.

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Middle Tennessee +6½ over NavyFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s sometimes easy to get influenced by things you read or hear when it comes to these Bowl games that involve teams we don’t see much of. Case in point is this game, where you are going to read about the Midshipmen’s wicked running game and record breaking QB. Navy QB, Keenan Reynolds broke the NCAA single-season mark for rushing touchdowns with 29 and its overall running game ranked second in the FBS with an average of 322 rushing yards per game. The Midshipmen also defeated Pitt and lost to Notre Dame by just four points, which also increases their appeal. However, those two decent showings against recognized programs were a bit misleading, as Pitt held a significant edge in time of possession (35 minutes to 25 minutes) and outgained them as well. Fact is, Navy is a one-dimensional team that ranked 122nd in passing. They lost to Duke 35-7, they lost to Western Kentucky 19-7 and they also lost to Toledo in double OT.
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The Blue Raiders are a more balanced offensive squad that also features an outstanding running game. Middle Tennessee is a resident of C-USA and this bowl season has seen other members of that conference do very well in this year’s slate of bowl games. East Carolina won its bowl game over Ohio by 17 points. Marshall defeated Maryland 31-20, Tulane had a nice showing against Louisiana in a 3-point loss. Rice has yet to play but in the C-USA championship game, Rice defeated Marshall 41-24. Mid Tennessee’s four losses this year came against North Carolina, who also won a Bowl game on the weekend, BYU, East Carolina and North Texas. The Blue Raiders defeated Marshall down the stretch and went on to win their last five games by scoring 42 or more in four of them. Motivation or lack thereof is always worth considering in these games and in that regard, Mid Tennessee should have plenty. They finished 8-4 last season and were left out of a Bowl game and so this will be its first Bowl appearance since 2009. C-USA is proving to be an undervalued conference this season and with 6½-points being offered in a very close matchup, we’ll gladly step in and take the points in a game the Blue Raiders have every bit a chance of winning as the favorite. 
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Mississippi -3 over Georgia TechFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech finished the year with a double OT loss to Georgia a blew a 20-point lead in that contest. They went 5-3 in the ACC and 7-5 overall but they also got whacked by just about every good team they faced. Against Clemson in their biggest game of the season up to that point, the Yellow Jackets were destroyed, 55-31. Against then #14 Miami, the Yellow Jackets were torched by 45 points and lost by 15. They also lost 38-20 to BYU. The Yellow Jackets biggest win this season came against whom? One could argue that Georgia Tech did not have a single notable win, especially when it counted most. Jackets coach Paul Johnson doesn’t seem very adept at preparing his troops for a Bowl game, as evidenced by his 1-4 record in Bowl games. The Jackets will now face perhaps the most underrated team in this year’s group of bowl game participants.
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The Rebels are undervalued because they lost five of their past nine games after opening the year 3-0. However, when comparing power-conference teams and players to how they fared throughout the season, they are always graded by they how they did against the SEC. The SEC is by far the best conference in the country. Ole Miss played Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Vandy. Indeed the Rebels lost most of those games but they did defeat LSU and Vanderbilt and after playing against some of the best teams in the nation, this one should appear in slow motion for the Rebels. Ole Miss is loaded with great players at the skilled positions. Tech QB, Vad Lee is a mistake waiting to happen and if the Jackets aren’t picking up big yards on the ground they will be in serious trouble here. A more skilled and better prepared Ole Miss team has a chance to roll over this middle of the pack ACC team. 
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TEXAS +14½ over OregonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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You certainly don’t need us to tell you that the Oregon Ducks are the better squad and should bury the Longhorns if all things were equal. Well, all things are not equal. The Bowl games take on an entirely different feel from the regular season and there are specific criteria one must apply when fading the chalk. Momentum or a lack of down the stretch is one of those intangibles we like to consider. In that regard, the Ducks lost two of their last four games to squash their chances of playing in a BCS Bowl. Are the Ducks likely to be excited about this game? Likely not. Oregon appeared to be a sure bet to appear in a BCS Bowl game with a good chance to win a National Championship. Oregon has appeared in a BCS Bowl game every season since 2008 and this season they will appear in this Valero Alamo Bowl. That’s like playing an exhibition game after winning the Super Bowl.
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Meanwhile, the Longhorns figure to be plenty motivated. First, the game will be played in-state and therefore Texas will have huge fan support. Secondly, Texas Coach Mack Brown will step down after this game after 16 years of pacing the sidelines for the Longhorns. The players will be jacked up to give their beloved coach a memorable sendoff. And it’s not like the Longhorns don’t have talent because they do. Texas defeated #12 Oklahoma earlier in the season and they also went on to win seven of their past nine games. When you play ranked versus unranked you are going to pay a premium almost every time to do so. When that ranked team can put up points seemingly at will, you can throw in another couple of points. What we have here is an inflated line on a disappointed team playing in a hostile environment against a hugely motivated group. That works for us.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 30

DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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SAN DIEGO VS LOYOLA MARYMOUNTVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SAN DIEGO +5.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Conference play is now getting underway in college basketball, which means much of my focus will be on games being played in this part of the country. With 351 teams playing D1 hoops this season, it’s not really possible to keep close tabs on all of them. My best advice is to focus on the leagues where you can get a real feel for the teams, and it’s a policy I adhere to myself.
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Tonight’s WCC clash between San Diego and Loyola Marymount is one that interests me. The Greyhounds were sensational on Saturday as they whipped BYU. The same cannot be said for the Toreros, who struggled with their defense in a loss at Pepperdine.
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There are a couple of factors I like that are in play here. In leagues where they have the wraparound weekend sets, I will frequently look to play on teams that did not play well in the first game, particularly if they’re matched up with a team that perhaps played over its head in their Saturday game. That looks to be the case here. I also like to take my chances with good defensive underdogs.
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San Diego fits on both counts. The Toreros didn’t defend well against the Waves, so I expect them to tighten things up and get back to their normal numbers here. As for Loyola, Max Good’s troops were probably as good as they can be against BYU, and it’s also possible they could bounce a bit after stunning the Cougars.
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If there’s one specific that could be key tonight, it’s the three point shooting for Loyola. The Greyhounds aren’t good at all from long range, but they were terrific against BYU. If they’re nailing the bombs again tonight, this play is in trouble. But if Loyola regresses to its norm, that should turn out to be a plus for USD.
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The number on this game is right where it ought to be based on the power ratings. But I like the dual bounce possibility here, and with that in mind I’ll side with San Diego plus the points tonight.

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