Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 24

Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 24

DUNKEL INDEX

Boise State vs. Oregon State
The Broncos come into tonight's Sheraton Hawaii Bowl following a 45-17 win over New Mexico and a 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Oregon State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Beavers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-2 1/2)

Game 211-212: Boise State vs. Oregon State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 91.258; Oregon State 96.110
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 5; 70
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 2 1/2; 65
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-2 1/2); Over

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon State vs. Boise StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 65FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There will be some windy weather in this game in Hawaii, which won't help a pass-happy Oregon State team that can't run. QB Sean Mannion averaged 427.4 yards passing and 4.1 touchdowns during the Beavers’ 6-1 start, but has seen those numbers drop to 282.2 and 1.4 during the losing streak. Oregon State averaged 43.8 points during a six-game win streak, but has seen that mark fall to 21 per game during its five-game skid. The under is 4-0 in the Beaver's last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boise is a run oriented team that will try and control the ball and the clock. The under is 5-2-1 in the Broncos last 8 games in December. Play Oregon State/Boise State Under the total.

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Mark FrancoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon State -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After turning Boise State into a BCS buster, Chris Petersen left to become the new coach in Washington. Although the school announced the hiring of former Broncos assistant and Arkansas State coach Bryan Harsin to replace Petersen next season, linebackers coach Bob Gregory will lead the team in Honolulu on Dec. 24 against Oregon State in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Sean Mannion (4,403 passing yards, 2nd nationally) and Brandin Cooks (Pac-12 record 120 receptions for an FBS-high 1,670 receiving yards) make the Beavers exciting to watch. Oregon State averaged 43.8 points during a six-game win streak. Oregon State is 5-2 in the postseason under coach Mike Riley. The Broncos rank 93rd in pass defense, making the Beavers a less-than-ideal matchup. I like Oregon State in a shoot out here.

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AC DineroFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon State vs. Boise StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oregon State -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pretty sizable line movement on this game. Boise opened at -3, and has now flipped all the way to +3. Part of it is surely due to the head coach moving on to Washington. This is a program accustomed to bigger bowls, and now without the key component that built this program no longer around, where does Boise go from here? I am sure they'll enjoy the trip to Hawaii, but the game itself? Not so sure. Boise does have all the statistical advantages in this game. But with the recent QB issues and the coach moving on, those are pretty mucn nuetralized. It isn't often a team that has lost 5 games in a row like Oregon St has, moves to a favorite after opening up as a dog. That tells me the Beavers are the correct side in this game.

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Steve RichFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon State vs. Boise StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Boise State Broncos play the Oregon State Ducks in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu. This should be the reward for the best teams. Who will keep their concentration towards the game may be the question here. Boise State HC Chris Petersen has left to take the job at Washington, this leaves linebackers coach Bob Gregory to lead the team in the Hawaii Bowl. The underdogs went 3-1 on the opening Saturday of the Bowl season.
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The Broncos have won four straight bowl games. We don’t know who will be the starting QB for the Broncos. Joe Southwick returned from his injury in the last game they played but was pulled early in the game after throwing for a touchdown in favor of backup QB Grant Hedrick. Hedrick played well for the injured Southwick. So, we don’t know if the coach was just trying to protect his starter and blow off some rust or are they prepared to go forward with Hedrick. The Broncos offense has been decent all year with them averaging 38.8 points per game. The Boise pass defense ranks 93rd in the country giving up almost 250 yards per game. The good news is they only give up less than 24. So it’s kind of a bend but don’t break type defense.
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Waiting for that poor secondary of the Broncos is the Beavers junior QB Sean Mannion. He threw for over 4400 yards. That is good for the 3rd ranked passing offense in the nation. They don’t have much of a ground game as they are obviously able to throw the ball all over the field. They average scoring 24.5 points per game but give up over 32 on defense. The offense has begun to come back to earth some as the Beavers have lost their last 5 game. The D has been a real problem all season. They come in near the bottom of most defensive categories.
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I will go with the team that has actually been winning lately. I will lean with Boise State getting three points in this one.

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Boise State +3½ over Oregon StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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On paper, the Beavers of Oregon State are supposed to win this game. OSU played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos. When we look at which team is better suited to get our money, we use certain criteria first. How a team ended the regular season comes into play. Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot of games. In that regard, Boise State won three of its last four and six of their last eight games while Oregon State dropped five in a row to close out the season. Next we want to know how much excitement a team will have heading into the bowl game, as we look for a club that is jacked up to play. Ask the Cowboys back in mid-October about how they would feel about playing in the Hawaii Bowl and they would have laughed. This team had its sights set much higher after beginning the season with six wins in seven games. At that point, the Cowboys had upcoming games against Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon. OSU had a big shot to make a statement and appear in a more prestigious Bowl game. They failed by not even winning one game in the final five weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be guided by assistant coach Bob Gregory on an interim basis after Head Coach Chris Petersen accepted the head coaching position at Washington. The Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Teams often respond to their coach bailing on them before a Bowl Game.
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Boise State will play its fourth straight Bowl game against a PAC-12 opponent. They won the previous three games and that includes last year’s two-point win over Washington. The Mountain West is 2-0 already this season in Bowl games with San Diego State’s romp over Buffalo and Colorado State’s 48-45 victory over Washington State. The latter game is especially noteworthy because the Cougars were supposed to whack the Rams but that’s what you get when a team from a power conference plays in a rather non-prestigious Bowl game. The same applies here but the Broncs have more talent than Colorado State. Boise State ranked 24th in the country in total offense with 470 yards per game and is tied for 16th with just under 39 points per game. The Broncos offense is a well-balanced outfit that is just as effective in the air as they are on the ground.
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The Beavers will throw on first down, second down and third down. They rarely run because they have one of the best QB’s and passing games in the nation. Still, a one-dimensional offense often runs into trouble and even if they do not, Boise State can match the Beavers with longer, sustained drives that will wear down OSU’s defense. No question this game can go either way but the intangibles heavily favor the dog and now that dog is being offered points. That’s not a bad spot to be in.

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Boise State/ Oregon State Under 66: The Boise State offense has been real good this year as they have averaged 38.8 ppg, but how good will they be in this one without QB Southwick or head coach Petersen. Grant Hendrick is capable of running this offense, but with him in there they will look to run the ball a bit more. That should eat clock and they have to look to play ball control as the are facing Sean Mannion and a strong OSU offense. Helping their running game will be facing an OSU defense that is 92nd in the nation vs the run. The Boise defense does give up allot of yards, but they dont give up a bunch of points, allowing just 23.6 ppg on the year. Boise will play some ball control here and they will also make OSU work slowly down the field. You will see some points in this one, but it won't be played in the 60's.

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Harry Bondi

Oregon St / Boise St Over 65.5

Look for a shootout on the big island tonight as both teams have outstanding offenses and bad defenses. Boise is balanced and has one of the nations best running backs and rushing attacks and that bods well against a Oregon State squad that gives up an average of 5.2 yards per carry and 193 rushing yards per game. Beavers are much more one dimensional but have one of the nations top passing attacks that averaged 350 yards per game which matches up well against a Broncos defense that allowed quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes and gave up an average of 7.1 yards per attempt. Scoreboard operator gets a workout tonight go OVER the total in the Hawaii Bowl.

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