Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Andy IskoeGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
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St. Louis -4GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
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Both teams are playing out the string but with reasons to be optimistic about next season. St Louis still has a chance to finish 8-8. 5 of their 6 wins have been by double digits. After starting 0-8 Tampa Bay has won 4 of 6, possibly earning coach Greg Schiano a reprieve to return next season. Both teams have suffered key injuries throughout the season that have affected their offenses more than the defenses. The Rams have been better balanced with a solid running game that has gained at least 100 yards in 7 straight games after doing so just once over their first 7 games. The overall statistics show St Louis as having made greater progress on both sides of the ball over the second half of the season than have the Buccs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Charlie Scott
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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +5
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Small Play on JAX. I don't think much of Tenn and I think JAX is playing better than they get credit for. JAX players still playing hard, while There will be many changes in the offseason in Tenn. JAX Live Home Dog !
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Dallas Cowboys -3
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A "Feel Play" where I just Feel the Cowboys Win Today. Cowboys bounce back from give away Win last week vs Green Bay, while the Skins played their asses off last week and still lost s/u at the end. DALLAS!
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New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: New England Patriots +2
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Due to injuries I believe Belechick and Brady are having 1 of their better Seasons. In the past whenever You can get Belechick & Brady as a Dog off a S/U Loss the Patriots have been MONEY ! That's 1 trend I do believe in ! PATRIOTS !

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis / Kansas City Under 46.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There is a very good chance that these two teams will be meeting again in the AFC Wildcard round in two weeks, so you can be sure that neither coaching staff will be looking to give much away. That means both teams will come in with conservative game plans and this will be a slow-moving, low-scoring game. We also have a couple of strong trends in this game favoring the under as the Colts have gone under in 11 of their last 15 games played on grass while the Chiefs have gone under in 21 of their last 29 home games. Go under!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jim Fiest

Timberwolves at Clippers
Play: Over

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the better scoring teams in the NBA this season, evidenced by their 105.2 ppg average. But what makes them an even better over club is their lack of defense, which right now ranks 24th overall in the NBA (102.0 ppg). Meanwhile, the Clippers have been a strange over/under team this season. When they play on the road they are 4-11 Over/Under and when they are at home they are 9-3 Over/Under. In fact, looking back even further, the Clippers are 20-7 O/U in their last 27 home games. So far these clubs have met twice this season, once on each home court and the patter has held. At Minnesota the teams combined for 201 points and went under by 12. At LA, the teams totaled 216 points and went over by five. The Clips defense is ranked 10th, but we get two top 5 scoring teams meeting here on Sunday night. We'll have to eclipse a 210 or bit higher number, but I look for that to happen pretty easily. Take the OVER here on Sunday Night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Redskins +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Forget about Tony Romo and the Dallas collapse last weekend. This defense stinks and they are playing on the road. The Redskins are out of the playoffs so today is their super bowl. These teams hate each other so throw all the records out the window. This Dallas Defense is brutal and losing a game like they did last week is a sign of a bad football team. Remember that Packers team was on their 4th quarterback of the year. Cousins is showcasing his talents for a job next year in another city and I expect him to do wonders for this Skins team today. Take Washington
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Minnesota Vikings +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The one thing that I really have liked about Cincinnati is their line play on both sides of the ball.  The problem with that is now a few guys are nursing injuries and their secondary is banged up.  I think the Vikings have a shot at winning this game outright.  Cassel has been playing excellent and it’s the line play of this Vikings team that has been impressive as of late.  Look for the Vikings to have a similar game plan as last week which will feature a lot of passing.  Take Minnesota.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Carolina Sports

Connecticut vs. Washington    
Pick: Connecticut -5

UConn comes in off an upset loss to Stanford and are 9-1 this season SU and only 3-5 ATS. UConn is 0-3 ATS on the road. This is a good bet because UConn is off an upset loss and have more talent and will be focused in this one. UConn falls into a system that allows us to play against a home team (WASHINGTON) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse, 81-44, 64.8% over the last 5 seasons. Washington is 5-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take UConn today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Joe Williams

Bears at Eagles
Play: Bears +3

Lately, neither of these teams have been very good against the number. Chicago is 3-8 ATS in their past 11, 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a iwnning record, and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 against the NFC. Philly is 5-20-1 ATS in their past 26 home games, 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 against a team with a winning record, and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning record record. Plus, Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, while the road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series overall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

OC DooleyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills +2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the keys to this pick has to do with the SCHEDULE as this is an extremely rare home game for Buffalo who a week from now will be wrapping up yet another disappointing campaign in New England versus superstar Tom Brady.  It has been more than one solid MONTH since the Bills played in front of their fans in Buffalo even though they did have a recent “designated” home game played north of the border in Toronto where they annually struggle.  The bottom line is that 7 of the final 10 games played this campaign by the Bills will have been played away from the city of Buffalo.  I will admit that visiting Miami is in line to get just their second playoff berth spanning the past dozen years, on the heels of an emotional triumph versus New England a week ago.  Even though the Dolphins ended up winning that contest, the Patriots were able to effectively run the football averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per rush attempt.  That is a major statistic considering that Buffalo’s strength is running the football behind the effective tandem of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  On the other side of the football Buffalo leads the entire league in SACKS including 5 last Sunday on the highway where the defense also forced 4 different turnovers.  Despite their current three-game win streak Miami’s offensive line is still depleted (Jonathan Martin, Richie Incognito controversy) and today that face an active Buffalo defensive front.  That Buffalo defense helped the Bills win in South Florida earlier in the campaign even though starting quarterback E.J. Manuel was sidelined.  Thus I refuse to panic regarding the Bills starting Thad Lewis behind center this afternoon and the offshore line of this contest has actually been “dropping” from an opening figure of two-and-a-half points which speaks volumes.  For those into negative karma at Miami’s hotel in the “wee hours” last night a FIRE ALARM went off for an extended period.  In a battle between two franchises that in the past dozen years have rarely if ever qualified for the playoffs I will gladly “take” the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Matt Fargo

Vikings vs. Bengals
Play: Under 48½

The over was 10-4 last Sunday in what turned out to be the highest scoring Sunday in NFL history which came right after the week that a touchdown record was broken. What has this done? It has put the totals at extremely high levels and this is the last week of the season that we will get as much value on the unders as next week can be considered an anomaly based on some starters possibly getting some rest prior to the playoffs. Taking a quick look this Sunday, the average posted over/under as of Wednesday is 47. In Week One, the average was 45. While a difference of two points may seem minute, over a span of 14 games, it is pretty big. We are playing the under between the Vikings and Bengals. Minnesota has gone over the total in two straight and five of its last six games and that is providing value with this number today especially after 78 points were scored last week in its game against the Eagles. The Bengals meanwhile have gone over in two straight games and this is the highest posted total they have seen in their last five home games. Again, that is providing us with value. Cincinnati is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 375 or more ypg while Minnesota is 6-0 to the under in its last six road games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. Also we play on the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 64-32 (66.7 percent) to the under since 1983.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Doug Upstone

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins    
Play: Dallas Cowboys -2½

On Sunday, Play On road teams like Dallas, an offensive team scoring 27 or more points a game, after scoring and allowing 24 points or more in three straight games. Yes, the Cowboys are a mess, but teams like this can still score points and are 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent the last three decades in this exact situation.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jeff Alexander

La Salle +3

This game is about revenge for La Salle, which was beaten 76-59 at Miami last season. The Explorers return four starters from last year's squad (Miami returns none), and they will be looking for payback. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus winning teams and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. La Salle is a stellar 55-37 ATS in lined road games under coach Giannini. Miami is just 2-3 SU at home on the season, and the Explorers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Bet La Salle.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Dave Price

Detroit +3½

Bowling Green is getting a little too much respect from odds makers considering how poorly in shoots the three-point shot. The Falcons average just three three-point makes per game while shooting them at a dismal 29.9% clip. This is significant because home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average four or less three-point field goals per game are just 41-83 ATS the last five seasons. Bowling Green is a terrible free throw shooting team (63.6%) while Detroit is a good free throw shooting team (76.3%). This is also significant because the Falcons are 0-7 ATS versus good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or more of their attempts over the last two seasons. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wis.-Milwaukee -10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers really fell off the map last year winning just eight games after season wins of 20, 19, 20 and 17 the prior four seasons. At 9-4 on the young season the Panthers have already surpassed last years win total. The losses have come against some pretty good competition in Loyola-Chicago, DePaul, Wisconsin and Northeastern. After back to back losses we look for Wisconsin Milwaukee to make a statement against a weaker foe. This is a good shooting team with a 52.3 effective field goal percentage that has been tested on the road.
While Alabama State enters play with a 4-4 record, the truth is the victories have come against poor competition. Mobile, Jacksonville State, Chicago State and Western Illinois. Alabama State is expected to fight to stay out of the cellar in the Southwestern Athletic Conference this season. The Hornets are a weak rebounding team who doesn't shoot the ball very well, one bad combination. Only two players average more than nine points per game. Overall 4 of 5 games away from the Dunn-Oliver Acadome have resulted in losses by 16 points or more.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Kansas City/ Indianapolis Over 43.5: Well this line did climb some through the week so Im more than happy that I got it in early. The Indianapolis offense has come alive of late, scoring 53 points in their last 2 games and 22+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Now Andrew Luck and company get to face a reeling Kansas city defense that has allowed 28.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Offensively the Chiefs may be the hottest team in the league as they have really started to open it up. Kansas City has scored 101 points in their last 2 games and they have averaged 41.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Now they face an Indy defense that has allowed 33.3 ppg in their last 4 road games. Those 4 road games have each put up at least 51 points. Both teams should get their fair share of points in this one as we get at least 51 scored here. 

Dallas/ Washington Over 53: Kirk Cousins had a great game last week vs Atlanta and should have another one vs this porous Dallas pass defense. Not sure what the future holds for Cousins, but you can rest assured that he will look to finish the year strong, in hopes of grabbing a starting job somewhere. I also expect plenty of points from the Dallas offense, because they now know that they can't rely on their defense to win games. This is a bad defense, but then again so is the Washington defense as they rank 21st vs the pass and 32nd in points allowed at 31.6 ppg. Washington has nothing to lose here and Dallas will not play this game vs conservative. Both teams will go all out here and that means plenty of points in the Nations Capital.

2 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Chicago Over 55.5: The Eagles offense has been in high gear under the guidance of Nick Foles and with the league's top rushing attack vs the leagues worst rushing defense, you can bet the Eagles will get their share of points. On the other side of the field we have a Chicago offense that has been very good all year, putting 29 ppg overall and 31.3 ppg on the road. Their pass offense comes in ranked 5th in the league and will be taking on an Eagles pass defense that is 31st in the league. The Eagles will use their running game to set up plenty of big plays down field, while Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall should carve up a weak Eagles pass defense. this one should be fun.

1 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -10 over Giants: The Lions cannot afford to take this game off. They have are in a dog fight for the division with Green Bay and Chicago and would really love to make amends for Monday night's poor showing, especially offensively. The play calling was horrid and i expect them to get back to doing what they do best and that means slinging the ball all over the field. The Lions will put up many more points than they did Monday and I don't feel the Giants will be able to keep pace. Manning has lost his touch and that offensive line is horrid and that is not good news When you're about to face the fierce pass rush of the Lions. Look for Detroit to win by 14+ here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Chris Jordan

My free play is on the Miami Dolphins minus a small number, as I think they're going to continue on a postseason path by taking it to the Buffalo Bills. Yes, the Fins are in the playoff hunt and simply need to continue their winning ways and should thrive against the banged up Bills, who announced two days ago EJ Manuel would not start in this game, due to a swollen left knee.

Arriving in frigid Buffalo on a three-game win streak, the Dolphins can secure their first postseason berth since 2008 with a win coupled with losses by Baltimore and Cincinnati. Or, quite simply, with wins in their remaining games, Miami is in.

What I like about the Dolphins is they've figured out how to win close football games. Miami has had six wins decided by six points or less, including last weekend's 24-20 win over New England.

This week the Fins can not only exact revenge for an earlier-season loss to the Bills, but can do it against the same backup quarterback who replaced Manuel in the first meeting. Thad Lewis, who went 1-2 after Manuel sprained his right knee in October, beat Miami on Oct. 20 for his lone win, during which he went 21 of 32 for 202 yards and an interception in a 23-21 win.

Things are different now, and the Dolphins have caught flame, they can taste the postseason and they've become a tighter-knit family.

I'll lay the cheap number here.

1♦ MIAMI DOLPHINS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Carolina Panthers to gain some revenge against their division-rival New Orleans.

The Saints ran over the Panthers two weeks ago, but that was in the Superdome where New Orleans just does not lose with Sean Payton as the head coach. This game is being played in Carolina where the Panthers have won 6 in a row while going 5-0-1 against the spread in those 6 wins.

New Orleans just has not been able to win away from the Bayou of late, as the Saints have lost 4 of their last 5 straight up on the highway, and are on an even worse 1-6 road spread slide this year.

Throw in Carolina's 4-1 home spread mark the last 5 times New Orleans has come calling, and I see this season series getting evened up at 1-1 come 4:00 pm eastern on Sunday afternoon.

Take the Panthers minus the points.

2♦ CAROLINA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Craig Davis

I know this might seem like the easy play here, but I know a lot of people that have already told me they're laying money on New England... a lot of money.

I'm not sure why, other than the fact the Pats have spent the better part of the last 10 years shocking people with last-minute wins when they have no business winning.

Shoot, of any year in the last 10, this season might be the perfect example of what I'm talking about. Remember their last-second win over Buffalo at the beginning of the year?

What about the comeback win over the Saints when they had no business winning that game? Or more recently against the Browns... talk about unbelievably lucky!! Or in Houston?

My point is, this team has always found a way to win games late behind Tom Brady's arm and Stephen Gostkowski's (or Adam Vinatieri's) leg!! But last week that luck ran out. Tom Brady was picked off in the end zone and the 'Phins beat the Pats.

Losing Rob Gronkowski was a HUGE loss and you can clearly tell the offense isn't the same. And while I'm definitely confident in the Ravens at home (6-1 there this year), this selection is more about going against the Pats than going with the Ravens.

Take Baltimore as your free play of the day.

3♦ BALTIMORE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Scott Delaney

My free play for Sunday is in the AFC West, as I like the San Diego Chargers minus the big number against the visiting Oakland Raiders.

Though the Chargers did their part to keep their long-shot playoff chances alive by stunning the Denver Broncos a week ago Thursday, they may be eliminated from the race before kickoff.

San Diego, which has beaten division leaders Kansas City and Denver once this season, will have its eye on both Miami and Baltimore, both of which play early. For me, I think as well as the Chargers have played this season, they'll either be looking to stay alive for the postseason or will be taking their frustrations out on a division rival if indeed they're eliminated.

Philip Rivers has been amazing this season, and I think both he and running back Ryan Mathews will have big days in front of the home crowd, to celebrate a respectable season. The Chargers' offense is ranked sixth overall in the league, and will be out for revenge from an Oct. 6 loss in Oakland, where the Raiders puller out a 27-17 upset.

Lay the points here.

4♦ SAN DIEGO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Brad Wilton

Not sure about the side between the Cowboys and Redskins this Sunday at FedEx Field, but I am sure about the total, and that is a play on the Over as my free play.

With the way the Dallas defense has been playing this year, hard to imagine Kirk Cousins not being able to get something cooking again like the way he did last week in his first start of the season at Atlanta. The Redskins combined with the Falcons in that one to head Over the total, making it 2 straight Over the total, and 6 of their last 9 overall Over the total.

As for the Pokes? With last week's collapse at home versus the Packers, Dallas has now gone Over in 7 straight, including each of their last 4 on the road.
Yes, this is a big total, but based on what you have seen from this maligned Dallas defense, can you really support an Under play? No, neither can I.

Dallas-Washington Over the total.

3♦ DALLAS-WASHINGTON OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Brett Atkins

My free play for today is on the Arizona Cardinals, catching 10.5 points up in Seattle in an NFC West showdown against the Seahawks.

While Seattle is hoping to put a wrap on the division, as a win would not only win the NFC West, but would also secure a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage for the postseason, the Cardinals are trying to continue a late-season surge and could very well make things difficult for Pete Carroll's troops.

Remember, Seattle is not an overly offensive team, but more so about putting in blue-collar work and grinding out victories. The Seahawks are physical, and much rather win the battle in the trenches and simply slow the tempo.

And while Seattle might boast the No. 1 overall defense, the Cardinals have the best run defense in the NFL. Arizona has allowed one 100-yard rusher this season, as San Fran's Frank Gore barely got there with 101 yards on the ground back in Week 6.

The Cardinals allow 83.2 yards rushing per game, and can take away a big part of Seattle's game by unbalancing the 'Hawks.

Make note, reports out of Tempe - where the Cardinals' facility is - revealed the Cardinals have been looking at the score "58-0" posted inside the team facility this week, in order to remind them the most lopsided loss in Cardinals history. That was last season in Seattle, where the Seahawks handed Arizona its ninth straight loss at the time.

Seattle should win this game, but more like by 4 to 8 points. Take the road dog.

1♦ ARIZONA

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