Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Chicago at Philadelphia
The Eagles host a Chicago team that is coming off a 38-31 win over Cleveland and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3)

Game 101-102: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.068; Buffalo 126.204
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.869; Carolina 139.379
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 105-106: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 126.021; Washington 127.785
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.314; St. Louis 139.210
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 11; 39
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-4 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.960; Philadelphia 141.210
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 111-112: Cleveland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.027; NY Jets 123.904
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.212; Kansas City 133.717
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over

Game 115-116: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.450; Cincinnati 141.329
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 117-118: Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Houston 122.900
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 51 1/2

Game 119-120: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.915; Jacksonville 128.856
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+5 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: Arizona at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 139.612; Seattle 145.022
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 123-124: NY Giants at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.987; Detroit 136.522
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.966; San Diego 141.817
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 22; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Under

Game 127-128: Pittsburgh at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.968; Green Bay 127.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 129-130: New England at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 134.129; Baltimore 138.618
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Atlanta at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.779; San Francisco 139.849
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Minnesota at LA Clippers
The Timberwolves visit the Clippers tonight looking to build on their 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams in LA. Minnesota is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6)

Game 801-802: Boston at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.239; Indiana 125.492
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+12 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Toronto at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 116.034; Oklahoma City 132.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-10 1/2); Under

Game 805-806: Minnesota at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.667; LA Clippers 122.410
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6; 210
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over

NHL

Minnesota at NY Rangers
The Wild visit NY tonight looking to take advantage of a Rangers team that is 1-7 in its last 8 home games. Minnesota is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105)

Game 1-2: Minnesota at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.657; NY Rangers 9.191
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over

Game 3-4: Winnipeg at Vancouver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.320; Vancouver 12.998
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 2 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-175); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

California at Creighton
The Blue Jays host California today looking to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against Pac-12 teams. Creighton is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-10)

Game 807-808: Purdue at West Virginia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 61.332; West Virginia 69.858
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6 1/2)

Game 809-810: Ohio at Richmond (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 58.216; Richmond 65.700
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 6
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-6)

Game 811-812: Georgia State at TX-San Antonio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 55.254; TX-San Antonio 41.754
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-11)

Game 813-814: Brown at Northwestern (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 52.121; Northwestern 60.303
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 8
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-6 1/2)

Game 815-816: Detroit at Bowling Green (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 55.696; Bowling Green 55.549
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2)

Game 817-818: Boston College at Auburn (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 58.542; Auburn 55.916
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 1
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-1)

Game 819-820: Valparaiso at Central Florida (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 59.949; Central Florida 64.980
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 5
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 3
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-3)

Game 821-822: LaSalle at Miami (FL) (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 56.987; Miami (FL) 64.734
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-2 1/2)

Game 823-824: Connecticut at Washington (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 68.400; Washington 59.056
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-5)

Game 825-826: Northern Illinois at UC-Riverside (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 47.340; UC-Riverside 49.267
Dunkel Line: UC-Riverside by 2
Vegas Line: UC-Riverside by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+5 1/2)

Game 827-828: USC at Dayton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 56.157; Dayton 69.870
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 11
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-11)

Game 829-830: California at Creighton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.033; Creighton 74.615
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 10
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-10)

Game 831-832: DePaul at Illinois State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 54.505; Illinois State 63.099
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-1 1/2)

Game 833-834: Louisiana Tech at UL-Monroe (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 58.525; UL-Monroe 53.691
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 5
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+7 1/2)

Game 839-840: Iowa State vs. George Mason (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 70.686; George Mason 60.882
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 10
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+11 1/2)

Game 841-842: Oregon State vs. Akron (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 56.111; Akron 60.693
Dunkel Line: Akron by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-2)

Game 843-844: South Carolina vs. St. Mary's (CA) (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 50.794; St. Mary's (CA) 69.279
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 10
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-10)

Game 845-846: Boise State at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 64.122; Hawaii 59.929
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 4
Vegas Line: Boise State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-1 1/2)

Game 847-848: Mississippi State vs. South Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 49.787; South Florida 57.825
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 8
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-4 1/2)

Game 849-850: Santa Clara vs. UNLV (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 55.942; UNLV 59.942
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4
Vegas Line: UNLV by 9
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+9)

Game 851-852: Elon at Florida Atlantic (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 54.525; Florida Atlantic 50.338
Dunkel Line: Elon by 4
Vegas Line: Elon by 2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (-2)

Game 853-854: Pennsylvania at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 49.044; Marist 54.498
Dunkel Line: Marist by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Marist by 1
Dunkel Pick: Marist (-1)

Game 855-856: Iona at Nevada (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 55.494; Nevada 55.479
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Iona by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+1 1/2)

Game 857-858: Eastern Washington at Seton Hall (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 52.619; Seton Hall 56.349
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+6 1/2)

Game 859-860: Northern Colorado at Wyoming (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.918; Wyoming 60.556
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 8
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+8)

Game 861-862: Weber State at UCLA (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 57.387; UCLA 68.775
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+15 1/2)

Game 871-872: Kennesaw State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kennesaw State 40.603; Indiana 66.511
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 26
Vegas Line: Indiana by 29
Dunkel Pick: Kennesaw State (+29)

Game 873-874: Mt. St. Mary's at Penn State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mt. St. Mary's 49.087; Penn State 61.030
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 12
Vegas Line: Penn State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mt. St. Mary's (+15 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots at Baltimore RavensSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New England PatriotsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New England (10-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-20 loss at Miami last week as a 2.5-point underdog -- and the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been extremely tough in situations like this. The Patriots have rebounded to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss -- and this franchise is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss.
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Baltimore (8-6) has won four straight after their 18-16 win in Detroit on Monday Night Football -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 appearances after MNF. Furthermore, the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the points with the Patriots in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Nick ParsonsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Raiders vs. ChargersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 50FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The visiting Raiders are coming off a 56-31 loss at home to the Chiefs. At 4-10, Oakland will now look to close the season as fast as possible and get to the draft.
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The home side comes into this game with some swagger, winner of two straight, holding its opposition to just 34 combined points in the victories. Of course that included the high-flying Broncos to just 20 in their own building last week.
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These teams played in Week 5 and the Chargers would pull away for the 27-17 victory, a final combined score indicative of all of their games over the last half decade: note that the total has gone "under" the number in four of these teams last six in the series overall, and in ten of their last 13 in San Diego.
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QB Philip Rivers has for the most part played well this year, and while the playoffs are no longer in the cards for the Chargers, this still sets up as a "look ahead" spot for suddenly surging San Diego which will close the season with a home game vs. the Chiefs (remember, the Bolts beat Kansas City 41-38 back in Week 12).
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And as mentioned above, the offseason simply can't come quick enough now for the Raiders, especially after last week's deflating setback.
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The situation, the trends and the numbers all point to another low-scoring defensive battle between these division foes; this number is just a little high.
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Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego ChargersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Diego Chargers -10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders were handed a fourth consecutive loss at home against Kansas City last Sunday, and once again their defense was victimized by another record setting performance.
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Earlier this season, Nick Foles tied an NFL record throwing seven touchdown passes in a 49-20 blowout win over the Raiders in Oakland. Last week it was Jamaal Charles, who caught four touchdown passes, and ran in another.
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The Raiders will limp into San Diego to take on the Chargers, who are in desperate need of a home win in order to stay alive in the race for an AFC wild card spot.
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Phillip Rivers has a 9-1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last four starts, and he should be looking at a big day against an Oakland secondary that ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 250 yards per game.
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Rivers has had a breakout year, after slipping into mediocrity the past few seasons in San Diego. He's completing a career high 69% of his pass attempts, and he's thrown for 28 touchdowns, just six short of his career high 34 in 2008.
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There's every reason to expect the Raiders to be on the wrong side of another blowout, against a motivated opponent on the road.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bengals lost on the road in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but that shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given their struggles on the road this season. They have been a completely different team at home though, where they are still undefeated at 6-0 so far. Cincinnati will host the Vikings this week, and Minnesota expects Adrian Peterson to return to the lineup.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR THE FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Previous History - Not only is Cincinnati undefeated at home, the Vikes are winless on the road. The Bengals have won their last three home games by an average margin of 25 points.
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2: Andy Dalton - The Bengals quarterback has been inconsistent at times this season, but he's thrown six touchdown passes and just one interception in his last three starts.
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3: X-Factor - Adrian Peterson might return to the Vikings lineup, but don't expect him to have a big game against this Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing opponents fewer than 100 yards per game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Randall The HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BEST BETSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Browns (4-10) at Jets (6-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets are now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Browns have been mathematically eliminated since 2002. While this may not be a marquee game with just two Sundays of football remaining, it doesn’t mean an opportunity does not present itself. The Brownies have lost seven of eight, but when you look at their opposition, many would have suffered the same fate. Yes, there was a 32-28 home loss to the Jaguars, but that one followed three division opponents and had Brandon Weeden pivoting the Browns. Other opponents during the eight-week span featured teams that were all in first or second place and are currently in the playoff picture. Cleveland did pull off a win over the Ravens in that set. The Browns are just better than the Jets, leading them significantly in seven of eight offensive and defensive categories. The Jets are not a team to be spotting points with, no matter how few. TAKING: BROWNS +2½
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Cowboys (7-7) at Redskins (3-11)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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As comical as this may sound, the Dallas defence may be missing some of its starters this week. It’s hard to believe this unit can descend any further as the Cowboys have been outgained by more yards on the season than any team in the league. They rank 32nd in both total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Dallas’ run stoppers aren’t much better, ranking 28th. That should have Washington QB Kirk Cousins licking his chops as he continues to prove his worth for either the Redskins or other possible suitors. Cousins made some mistakes last week in his first start of the season, but still threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns. More than anything else, the Cowboys have become sitcom material as they continue to be poorly coached and managed. The Redskins have had an awful year, but they would like nothing more than to put Dallas out of its misery. We expect them to do just that. TAKING: REDSKINS +2½
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Falcons (4-10) at 49ers (10-4)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons could not overcome myriad injuries and the season was lost many weeks ago. That doesn’t mean that this one wasn’t circled on their calendars. With nothing to lose, we expect them to pull out all the stops against the team that prevented them from appearing in last year’s Super Bowl. That game had the 49ers overcoming a 17-point deficit, the largest comeback ever in an NFC championship game, to earn their berth to the big show. Atlanta has been better offensively lately, winning two of its last three and averaging 27 points per game in the process. The Niners are solid and they continue to win, but they do it systematically, relying on a strong defence to create good field position and scoring chances. However, Matt Ryan has thrown for nearly 1,200 more yards than counterpart Colin Kaepernick and, with added motivation and a double-digit spot, the dog here is too attractive to pass up on. TAKING: FALCONS +12
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Dolphins (8-6) at Bills (5-9)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bills beat the Fish in Miami a couple of months ago, but the teams have headed in different directions since, with the Dolphins on the verge of post-season play. That win was Buffalo’s only victory versus a winning team in 11 weeks. It is unlikely the Bills can pull it off twice versus a superior divisional foe. Miami’s offence has improved throughout the season as QB Ryan Tannehill has found a groove with his receiving corps, most notably with TE Charles Clay. Tannehill has tossed 23 majors this year, placing him ahead of guys such as Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco. Current form and stakes point us to the road chalk. TAKING: DOLPHINS –2½
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Saints (10-4) at Panthers (10-4)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Maybe the Saints aren’t quite the same outside of the Superdome, but we can’t ignore the pasting that New Orleans handed these Panthers just two weeks ago. Drew Brees torched this Carolina defence for 313 yards and four touchdowns, compared to Cam Newton’s 111 passing yards — and Newton’s numbers were while trailing throughout the game. This host is much better as a front runner, nursing leads with a strong run game and letting the defence do the rest. Should the Saints get to any type of lead, Carolina’s pedestrian offence could be in trouble again. This one will be closer than last, but any points being offered have to be seriously considered. TAKING: SAINTS +3
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Titans (5-9) at Jaguars (4-10)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fading the Titans continues to pay out like a broken ATM as oddsmakers keep mispricing this lame group. Tennessee has just one cover in its past six games, that being a four-point win as a three-point choice in Oakland. The Titans lack desire, skill and coaching to be favoured by this much over most teams if they were at home, let alone on the road. The Jaguars visited Tennessee recently and, as a 12-point underdog, left town with a 29-27 victory. That was Jacksonville’s first win of the year after eight straight losses and the first time the Jags exceeded 20 points. Win, lose or draw, the Titans have little appeal in this meaningless trip to Florida. TAKING: JAGUARS +5½
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Colts (9-5) at Chiefs (11-3)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We hate to keep holding it against them, but the only team the Chiefs beat this season that currently holds a winning record was the 8-6 Eagles back in Week 3, against Andy Reid’s old club. When Kansas City faced the Broncos twice and the Chargers once, they lost. Trouble here is that while Indianapolis is a winning club, it has locked up the AFC South and has little to play for. However, the Chiefs may not be at full tilt, either, knowing that Denver would have to suffer an unlikely loss to either Houston or Oakland in its final two games in order to become the AFC West champion. TAKING: COLTS +7
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Buccaneers (4-10) at Rams (6-8)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Only once has St. Louis been favoured by more than three points, spotting 11 to the wretched Jaguars. Needing St. Louis to win by a margin is a dangerous proposition, especially if WR Tavon Austin sits this one out with an ankle issue. The Bucs have been in a bunch of close games and when you take a look at their 2013 record, you’ll find that Tampa has faced only three teams with a losing record while battling as many as nine teams that could be playoff-bound. Records don’t always tell a true story, but in this contest, we’re glad they don’t as we’ll gladly take the more talented squad with the points being offered. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +6
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Bears (8-6) at Eagles (8-6)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a tough one to peg at the moment as this game goes Sunday night and the Eagles may not need the win. If the Cowboys win their 1 p.m. start against the Redskins, this contest becomes meaningless to Philadelphia and coach Chip Kelly could conceivably rest his starters as the Eagles and Cowboys would decide the NFC East in both teams’ final game next week. In addition, the line will change depending on the scenario presented here. Should the game mean something to both, prefer the Eagles and their dangerous offence against a Chicago team that simply cannot stop the run and will face one of the league’s most complete backs in LeSean McCoy. TAKING: EAGLES –3
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Vikings (4-9-1) at Bengals (9-5)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If nothing else, we have to hand it to the Vikings for battling this past month, including a 48-point outburst against the Eagles last week. However, the Bengals have been as tough as nails at home, where they are a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the spread. Going back to last season, Cincinnati has covered nine of its past 10 on this field. The Vikes will face a tough Bengals defence that ranks sixth overall. Minnesota has also paid the price with its recent surge and could be without its two starting running backs, its top two tight ends and as many as three starting cornerbacks. TAKING: BENGALS –7½
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Broncos (11-3) at Texans (2-12)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We recognize that it is tough to put your hard-earned dough on a Houston team that owns the league’s worst record. But we’ve seen many a ship go down when spotting double digits on the road as the visitor is rarely motivated and just happy to leave town with a win. While the Case Keenum project appeared to have some hope, the young Houston quarterback went 0-8 as a starter. Keenum is out with an injury, placing Matt Schaub back at the helm and, truth be told, Schaub gives the Texans their best chance to compete. If there is any face to be saved, a decent showing here may do the trick. TAKING: TEXANS +10½
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Cardinals (9-5) at Seahawks (12-2)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona deserves to make the post-season, but entry into the January tournament will not come easy. The Cardinals will need to win one of their final two games against either Seattle on this day or the 49ers next week. At the same time, Arizona will require the Panthers to lose one of their final two, to either the Saints or Falcons. The Cards paid a price last week in their overtime win against the Titans, as several key players were hurt. While QB Carson Palmer and RB Andre Ellington are currently expected to play, the status of WR Larry Fitzgerald and a pair of starting safeties is in doubt. We all know how tough it is to win in Seattle, but with double-digits being offered to a determined team, we’ll lean that way. TAKING: CARDINALS +10½
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Giants (5-9) at Lions (7-7)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions couldn’t have asked for a more downtrodden guest to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. The Giants have quit, as demonstrated these past two weeks and being shut out at home last week. The G-Men have just three covers in their past 11 road games and this will be their first game on a fast track indoors. QB Eli Manning has had his worst season as a pro with 26 interceptions to date and he is likely to be missing his best receiver as Victor Cruz could be done for the year. Detroit is not the most trustworthy of teams, but they possess enough talent to crush a team that just doesn’t seem to care much about this season gone bad. TAKING: LIONS –9
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Raiders (4-10) at Chargers (7-7)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego has a very remote chance of post-season play, but they will keep going until it is mathematically eliminated. The Chargers have had 10 days to rest after their upset win at Denver and they certainly have better players than today’s opposition. That said, the Raiders have shown bounce-back abilities after losses with six covers in their past nine after a defeat. Oakland also took down these Chargers earlier in the season by a 27-17 count and they’ve covered in their four previous trips to San Diego. There is hope in San Diego with its new coaching regime, but the team remains .500 and it has not spotted this many points since September of 2011. TAKING: RAIDERS +10
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Patriots (10-4) at Ravens (8-6)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ravens are in better shape than the Patriots as New England’s roster is filled with backups with the injury bug hitting the Pats hard. Still, not anxious to be giving away points with a Baltimore team playing on a short week and having trouble finding the end zone these days, exceeding 20 points only twice in its past nine games. New England will make the playoffs, but they are not assured of being the No. 2 seed and no team would like a week’s rest more than this one. As long as Tom Brady is on the field and taking points, you know you have a reasonable chance at a cover and that is our preferred route here. TAKING: PATRIOTS +2½

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jason SharpeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Jets (-2.5) over ClevelandFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cleveland Browns finished off the home portion of their schedule last week with a loss to the Chicago Bears. That was the Browns big homerun game in a season that now has nothing left for them to play for. They come in having dropped five in a row and eight of their last nine games overall.
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The New York Jets are a very strong 5-2 at home this season so far. No team has looked more different at home this year where the Jets are 5-2 overall compared to how they have looked on the road as they are an ugly 1-6 in away games. These aren’t fluke wins either as two of their five home victories came against the Saints and Patriots. Take New York minus the points here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Raphael EsparzaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego (-10) over OaklandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The first weekend of October the Raiders won at home against the Chargers 27-17, and the Raiders were home underdog +5.5. Sunday afternoon San Diego will look for revenge from that loss, and the Chargers will be looking for three straight wins. San Diego is coming off a big road win against Denver last Thursday, and if the Chargers running game excels this game could be a blowout. The Raiders got blown up last week against Kansas City, and again if they can't stop the running game of San Diego we could see the Chargers score at will against Oakland. The Raiders have has success against the Chargers, but San Diego is looking for a playoff spot, and the Raiders are planning vacations.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Sports Insights

TOP PLAYS

102 Miami/Buffalo Under 43: Buffalo has played over in 9 of 14 including 23-21 game earlier this season against Miami. Buffalo pass defense is really good. And Miami’s defense has advantage over the Buffalo pass game. The YPP portion of the model has this in the mid-30’s.

116 Minnesota/Cincinnati Under 47.5: Favorable math and some trends that point to Bengals bouncing back after a couple bad defensive showings. Probably going to be rainy and windy here too.

122 Arizona/Seattle Under 43: Football Outsiders has these two as the best defenses in the league. Should be a lot of running the ball the ball here and less than 125 plays, yet the total is lined barely below league average.

129 New England +2.5 over Baltimore: Road underdog off road loss angle. Belichik off loss. Ravens short week off close win. Math says it’s off.

Leans: 103 New Orleans +3 over Carolina, 118 Houston +10 over Denver, 124 NY Giants/Detroit Under 48.5, 130 New England/Baltimore Under 44

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Brady Kannon

Cleveland Browns +2.5

The Cleveland Browns have had a very tough season, switching quarterbacks multiple times, losing a heart breaker to The Patriots, and compiling a 4-and-10 record all the while. The Jets are 6-and-8 but one could argue that they have been more disappointing than The Browns. New York has been outstatted in 9-of its last 10-games. Cleveland has held many offenses to season low totals in yards and has outstatted 10-of its 14-opponents so far this year. The new regime in Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner seem to have instilled some hope into this team and they continue to play hard every week. The Jets have been so inconsistent and may be to the point of getting rid of their head coach. We'll take the team today that owns a better offense, a better defense, a better overall team state of affairs, and is getting points - over an opponent who looks to be playing out the string and preparing for a busy off season. Dawgs pound The Jets in The Meadowlands

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Wunderdog

Denver at Houston
Pick: Over 52.5

What do you think the odds would have been at the beginning of the season on Houston earning the #1 pick in next year's draft? How about after they started 2-0? The are big problems here for the Texans as they have lost 12 straight games, and while they have a defense that is still ranked #4 in the league in fewest yards allowed, they have an offense that has given up more scores than any team in the league. Add in the big plays they give up, and special teams flaws, and while they rank #4 in fewest yards allowed, the Texans rank #25 in points allowed at 26.8 points per game. Points is what matters. Denver is all offense. It doesn't seem to matter what the defense is doing, they simply get their points, and plenty of them at 38.2 ppg. There is a problem for Denver however; They allow 26.6 ppg themselves, and their games have subsequently played to am 11-3 mark to the OVER this season and 23-15 OVER under John Fox. I don't see anything different here. Following a loss, the Broncos are now 39-12-2 to the OVER in their last 53. In the Fox era, this team is 11-3 OVER after and UNDER. This one is going to be a shootout, so play on the OVER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Mike O'ConnorFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay (+4) 20 ST. LOUIS 23FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After playing really well the previous six weeks and winning four of their previous five games, the Bucs took a step back last week in a 14-33 home loss to the 49ers. San Francisco dominated the action and gained 379 yards at 5.6 yppl to 183 yards at 3.7 yppl for the Bucs while holding the ball for nearly two thirds of the game. They will now take to the road where they are 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS as they travel to St. Louis. On the other side, the Rams come off of a huge 27-16 home win against the Saints in a game where they lost the yardage battle (304-432) but were +3 in turnover margin. The Rams dominated the line of scrimmage with a 146-61 rushing advantage and sacked Drew Brees four times in the win. Both of these teams have improved as the season has progressed and while the Rams have played well at home (4-3 SU and ATS) they will look to finish the season out strong in their last home game here. I don’t have any situations in play but my model favors the Rams by -4.2. At the current line of -4 this game is a complete toss-up to me but I will lean slightly with the Bucs plus the points.
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CINCINNATI (-8) 27 Minnesota 18FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Cassel has been the best Minnesota QB this season and last week he put on quite a performance against an Eagles team that just didn’t quite seem ready to play. He’ll get a tougher test this week on the road against a Bengals defense that is very good (allowing 319 yards at 4.8 yppl to teams that gain 356 yards at 5.4 yppl on average) as they look to bounce back from their 20-30 home loss on Sunday night last week to the Steelers. The Bengals need this game and can clinch the AFC North with a win here and a Ravens loss to the Patriots so they will be focused and motivated in this spot. Cincinnati has played very well at home this season with 6-0 SU and ATS records, winning by an average score of 33.2 – 17.2. The Vikings have not played particularly well away from home with a 0-6-1 SU record, but 4-3 ATS. The Bengals have a pretty good passing matchup in this game with an above average passing offense attacking a Vikings secondary that is allowing 290 passing yards at 6.7 yps, and should have some success here. The Bengals qualify in a 34-11 situation that has played on Cincinnati twice this year already and is 2-0, and my model favors them by -7.9. I expect the motivated home team to bounce back this week so I’ll lean to the Bengals minus the points.
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Cleveland (+2.5) 18 NY JETS 17FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After giving up a 26-14 lead with less than three minutes left in losing to the Patriots the previous week, Cleveland QB Jason Campbell said that the Browns suffered from a hangover effect and were flat last week in their 31-38 home loss to the Bears. That may be the case as they were outgained (366 yards at 6.5 yppl to 441 yards at 7.1 yppl for the Bears) and just didn’t look to be playing with much urgency. They’ll get a chance to redeem themselves this week in a winnable game against the Jets in New York. It’s hard to gauge how the Jets will respond to their 20-30 loss last week in Carolina and the news on Monday night that they were eliminated from the playoffs after the Ravens beat the Lions. It could possibly be a bit of a flat spot for New York. While the Jets have been terrible on the road, they are actually 5-2 SU with wins against the Patriots and the Saints at home while the Browns are just 1-5 SU away. Cleveland qualifies in several good situations that are 244-146-8 and 195-122-13 and also benefit from a negative 45-79-1 situation that plays against the Jets here. My line favors only favors the Jets (-2.4) so it appears that the line is fair, but with the situational value on the side of the Browns, I’ll lean to Cleveland plus the points.
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JACKSONVILLE (+5) 18 Tennessee 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Turnovers at critical times have really hurt the Titans this year and last week was no exception. After battling back from a 17 point deficit in the fourth quarter to send the game into OT, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw his second interception of the day and put the Cardinals in good field position as they drove down for the game winning field goal. Despite winning the yardage battle by nearly a hundred yards (460 at 6.0 yppl to 361 at 5.4 yppl for Arizona), the -3 turnover difference killed the Titans. This week they’ll travel to face a Jaguars team that is playing hard and have been improving, as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. Last week they played the Bills tough but were -2 in turnovers and ended up losing 20-27. The Titans qualify in a 74-32-4 situation and my model favors them here by (-3.7) so without a strong opinion either way, I’ll lean to the Jaguars plus the points.
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New Orleans (+3) 24 CAROLINA 23FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With the division title up for grabs, this is a huge game for both of these teams. While the Panthers can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, the Saints can clinch the NFC South and a first round bye with the win. The Saints lost an ugly game last week where they were flat as can be against the Rams, but the previous week they beat the Panthers in impressive fashion. After falling behind 0-6, they rattled off 31 consecutive points before allowing a late Carolina touchdown in a 31-13 final. The big difference in that game was the venue as it was played at the Superdome, where the Saints have been excellent (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS). While Carolina has been good at home this season (6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS), the Saints have struggled on the road (3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS) and that makes this a tough spot for the Saints. The Saints did beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season (26-18) and nearly beat the Patriots in New England the following week (27-30), and outside of their 7-34 loss in Seattle, they have played the difficult teams on their schedule competitively. Several of their road losses have been in trap games, where the Saints can’t seem to get up for an inferior opponent (Jets, Rams). That won’t be the case this week in a big game and I expect the Saints will play better than they have shown in recent road games. In addition, I think that there is a bit more value on New Orleans this week after their 16-27 loss last week in St. Louis where they looked lost. Coach Payton shook up the team this week, cutting kicker Garrett Hartley and demoting LT Charles Brown, replacing him with rookie Terron Armstead. Brown has not been very good this season, particularly as a pass protector, and Payton wouldn’t have made the move if he didn’t think it would help the team. So, while a lot has been made of those moves, I’m not sure how much they help, but I don’t believe that they will hurt. The Saints qualify in 42-13 and 22-6 situations and my model favors them in this spot by (-1.2). I can’t pull the trigger on this one, though, as the home/road disparities are just too strong for me and with rain in the forecast Carolina is built for this type of game at home right now. With most of the numbers on their side, I’ll lean to the Saints plus the points.
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BUFFALO (+2.5) 21 Miami 20FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With their 24-20 home win against the Patriots last week that moved them to 8-6 on the season, the Dolphins are now in the 7th seed and pushing hard for a wildcard playoff berth. They have been on a roll lately, winning 5 of their last 7 games, with wins over the Patriots, Steelers, Chargers and Bengals along the way. They have been a pretty good road team as well (4-3 SU and ATS), with their only losses in New Orleans and New England, and the third to Tampa Bay just as the Incognito/Martin situation was emerging. However, adjusted season numbers show a team that is slightly below average overall from a yppl perspective and may be a bit over-inflated in this spot. On the other side, the Bills got their first road win since October last week in their 27-20 win in Jacksonville and now return home where they have played very well this year (5-1 ATS) with SU wins over Carolina and Baltimore. In addition, four of the six games have been decided by three points or less. Thad Lewis gets the start here for EJ Manuel and I don’t think that it is a drop-off at all, although neither QB is very good. The two QB’s have similar statistics and when Thad Lewis has started the game, the Bills are 2-1 ATS, including a 23-21 win in Miami earlier this season. What worries me here is the possibility of slick conditions with rain that could help to neutralize the Bills biggest advantage, their pass rush. In addition, Thad Lewis has had fumbling problems (6 fumbles in his three games as a starter) and poor weather won’t help those issues. This is their last home game of the year and the Bills will be focused to win and finish out the season strong. Buffalo qualifies in a good 195-122-13 situation and my model also shows value on the Bills as well (-.2) so based on the numbers, I like the Bills plus the points.
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Indianapolis (+6.5) 22 KANSAS CITY 25FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot and with only seeding remaining, these teams will look to potentially improve their position with a win in this game. The Chiefs have been a team that has outperformed their stats this season with an amazing +21 turnover differential after last week’s net of +6 against the Raiders. Their offense has really improved in the past four weeks as they have averaged 41.8 points per game over this span and while their defense has regressed a bit, their offense has more than compensated. This week they will face a Colts team that has been up and down, alternating wins with losses the past seven weeks. After some recent poor performances, their defense played well last week in limiting the Texans to 239 total yards at 3.8 yppl while generating four sacks and two interceptions. I don’t have any situations in play here but my model favors the Chiefs by only (-3.3) and with Kansas City’s poor 2-5 ATS home record this season I’ll lean to the Colts plus the points.
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SEATTLE (-10.5) 27 Arizona 16FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have been a team on the rise, winning 6 of their last 7 games after beating the Titans in OT 37-34 last week. While they are only 3-4 SU away, they have played competitively with a 5-2 ATS record. Currently standing as the 7th seed, they will be battling for a potential wildcard opportunity here as they travel to face the Seahawks in Seattle. This is also a big game for the Seahawks, as Seattle can win the NFC West and home-field advantage with a win here. Back in Week 7 the Seahawks beat the Cardinals on a short week in Arizona 34-22 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. The big difference here is that this game is in Seattle, and their home field advantage is well documented (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS this year, winning by an average score of 32.7 – 14.0). Behind a poor offensive line, a stationary and banged up Carson Palmer could be in trouble here against an excellent pass rushing Seattle front. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my model favors the Seahawks by (-11.3). I’ll lean to the Seahawks minus the points.
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Oakland (+9.5) 23 SAN DIEGO 28FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After starting the season 3-4 and creating some hope for this season, The Raiders have followed the good start up with a poor showing in recent weeks, losing six of their last seven games. When the switch was made to QB Matt McGloin, the teams play picked up as well as they went through a three game stretch (winning at Houston, playing competitively in a home loss to the Titans and losing to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving) where they showed some improvement. The last two weeks, however, the Raiders have regressed back a bit in losses at the Jets and then last week at home, getting smashed by the Chiefs, 56-31. They’ll look to rebound and finish up the season strong at San Diego this week before playing at home against the Broncos next week. On the other side, San Diego has gained some steam recently with wins over the Broncos 27-20 last week and the Giants 37-14 the week prior. The Chargers have played well the past month with difficult wins over the Chiefs and Broncos on the road with their lone loss being to the Bengals at home. They have had a few extra days to prepare for this one and know that they need to win their last two games and get some help from some other teams to make the playoffs. With an explosive passing offense that I have rated #3 facing a poor Raiders pass defense that is allowing 6.9 yps to teams that average 6.3 yps, and just allowed Chiefs QB Alex Smith to have a perfect passer rating last week with 5 touchdown passes, I’m confident that the Chargers will move the ball in this one. The question is whether they can stop the Raiders. San Diego’s defense has been pretty bad this season overall, allowing 377 yards at 6.4 yppl to teams that gain 362 yards at 5.6 yppl on average and I believe that the Raiders will move the ball in this game as well. Using season numbers, The Raiders qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations that are 653-481-40 and 280-172-14 as well as a separate 1-20 situation that plays against the Chargers, but 28.1% of the Raiders season rushing numbers were generated by Terrelle Pryor and adjusting for his absence the Raiders drop to a below average rushing team (averaging 4.1 ypr). This seems like a lot of points to give a division rival that has already beaten you this season but my math model comes up with Chargers -10.9 so it appears that the line is about right and without one of the wheels that drives the systems, I’ll pass with a lean to the Raiders plus the points.
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New England (+2) 21 BALTIMORE 20FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s rare that we get to see the Patriots as an underdog, and even rarer to see the Patriots as dogs off a loss, which is what we have here. With Bill Belichick at the helm, the Patriots have come through in a big way in these spots (with a line of >=-3) as they are 21-7 SU and a very profitable 24-4 ATS in this role. I love the fact that the Super Bowl Champion Ravens just came off of a huge 18-16 Monday Night football win (where they were outgained 349 yards at 5.5 yppl to 305 yards at 5.1 yppl) that sets them up in position to potentially win the division with wins in their final two games. The reality is, they are not as good as their current win streak suggests. While winning 5 of their last 6 games, they are being outgained 293.3 – 326.8 yards per game on average. They have the worst rushing offense in the NFL (averaging only 83 yards at 3.1 ypr against teams that allow 114 yards at 4.3 ypr), and a quarterback in Joe Flacco that only trails Eli Manning and Geno Smith in interceptions (17 thrown). While they are -2 in turnover differential, they are actually +3 in net fumbles gained so they have had some positive luck so far as well. On the other side, the Patriots are coming off of a loss to the Dolphins in a game that they could have just as easily won as they had their chances late (and won the yardage battle 453 yards at 5.9 yppl to 379 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Dolphins). New England knows that they still have a shot at the #1 seed if they win out and Denver loses a game, so they will be gunning hard for a win here. Lots of technicals going both ways here as I have multiple good situations that play on the Patriots that are 179-85-5 and 137-59-7 as well as several negative situations that play against the Ravens that are 83-168-9, 57-116-3 and 45-79-1. Baltimore does qualify in a couple of good situations of their own, however, that are 195-122-13 and 51-13-1. My math model favors the Patriots in this game (-1.1). The Ravens have played well at home (6-1 SU but 4-3 ATS) but four of their seven home games have been decided by three points or less while the Patriots are just 1-6 ATS away. With conflict on the situations, I’ll just lean with the Patriots plus the points.
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SAN FRANCISCO (-13) 31 Atlanta 17FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After sky high expectations entering the year, it’s been a lost season for the Falcons and at 4-10 they are looking to end the season as quickly as possible. They were fortunate to get a home win last week against the Redskins with QB Kirk Cousins making his first start of the season as they were outgained 244 yards at 4.0 yppl to 476 yards at 7.2 yppl but were +5 in turnover margin, including +4 in fumbles, so they were a bit lucky in this one. Overall season numbers show a team that is well below average in most areas who also has a -6 turnover differential on the season. This week they’ll travel to San Francisco for their final road game in a Monday night matchup. On the other side, the 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win in their final home game and final game at Candlestick Park. San Francisco has significant matchup advantages across the board in this game and my model favors them here as well (-13.7). I don’t have any situations in play, but based on the matchups and the direction of these teams, I’ll lean with the 49ers minus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Stephen Nover

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals    
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -8

Minnesota isn't as good as it looked offensively against Philadelphia and the Bengals aren't as bad as they looked against the Steelers.

But because of those games last week - and the strong possibility that Adrian Peterson will give it a go - the line is in reasonable range to back the much superior Bengals.

Minnesota has yet to win a road game in the United States this season. The Bengals are 6-0 at home where they average 33.2 points and have scored 41 or more points the past three times.

I don't see Minnesota's beat-up defense, with a cluster injury problem in the secondary, and 30th-ranked pass defense slowing down Cincinnati.

The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up offensively against a Bengals defense that ranks among the top 10 in the major categories. Peterson isn't 100 percent. The top two tight ends are out. Matt Cassel is going to have problems operating against a Cincinnati secondary that gives up the sixth lowest passer rating.

I'll take Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer over Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave in a game of matching wits anytime.

To his credit, Leslie Frazier hasn't allowed the Vikings to quit. However, I regard Frazier as one of the worst head coaches in the NFL.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Tony George

Bears vs. Eagles
Play: Pver 55½

Who wants part of this side play? Bears could take the drivers seat in their division with a win, and Philly will know what Dallas did earlier in the day as this is the late game Sunday. WOW what a set up. This is coin toss game says Tony George, however the value in the line is the totals play. At 55 points back in the day, that was automatic under however in the last 2 Sundays the NFL set a record 2 weeks ago with the most TDs ever on a Sunday and last week the most points scored ever on Sunday. The totals line in this game is 55.

This game Sunday is prime example of the new era in the NFL, offense all over the place and 2 defenses who cannot stop anyone. Chicago made Cleveland last week look like a good offense, and Philly is ranked 30th in the NFL in yards allowed and with QB Cutler back, 2 solid wide receivers and Matt Forte running around Philly is going to have to put up points against a wounded bears defense missing key players including Tillman, and they will do it. I see both teams in the high 20's or low to mid 30's in a shootout. Remember Philly went over the total 2 weeks ago at home in a blizzard with 8 inches of snow on the ground. Shootout all the way.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Tony Karpinski

Kansas City Chiefs -6½

Indianapolis has one of the worst defense in the league stopping the run, giving up a massive, 128.9/ game, good for 27th in the league, facing a speed demon Jamaal Charles. The Colts have been playing very up and down lately, with no consistency. Their best player on offense has been RB Donald Brown and his 5.3/ YPC , will likely get the carries as Trent Richardson constantly struggles running ball, in a huge bust trade this year.

The Colts' defense has to get it together, but they won't, the past multiple weeks style of play isn’t going to cut it. Kansas City is at home, where they like it, sporting a 5-2 record, in Arrowhead Stadium and should have no trouble covering the 6 points in this matchup.

They have been on a scoring barrage lately, and it continues today versus the dome team with the Colts. Pounding the ball for 126/game. The Chiefs are clicking well at the right time, a hefty win incoming for KC as the Chiefs now a very genuine contender who doesn't turn the ball over. Indianapolis is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Jimmy Boyd

Dallas Cowboys -3

The oddsmakers have given far too much credit to Washington's backup quarterback Kirk Cousins. He may be coming off a solid performance last week, but Cousins was up against one of the bottom-five defenses when Washington took on the Atlanta Falcons. The Redskins had seven turnovers last week, three of which can have the blame placed squarely on Cousin's shoulders. The Cowboys come into this game having already laid a beating on the Redskins earlier this season, and there is nothing to be optimistic about for round two of this matchup.

One of the biggest problems for the Redskins has been there horrible defensive play. They are allowing 31.6 points per game at home this season, and they will face a Cowboys team that has had no problems finding the endzone. Dallas averages an impressive 28.1 points per game, and I expect to see them scoring at-will against Washington. The Cowboys are still playing for a chance to make the playoffs. They are just a game back on the Eagles, and with Philadelphia facing a tough Bears team this week the NFC East is still wide open.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Alex Smart

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills    
Play: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalos D has been tough this season, and have the most sacks in the league (49) and the Fins give up the most sacks in the NFL(51). Im betting the Bills D is the difference maker today in a huge rivalry game. These teams met on October 20th in Miami, with Buffalo winning 23-21 as 6-point dogs and must not be under estimated .Buffalo is 5-1 ATS Ralph Wilson Stadium this year. Bills have covered 17 of their L/26 at home getting +3 or more points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 22

Steve Janus

Buffalo Bills +2½

The Bills have had an up and down season and if you asked most experts this team is better than their 4-10 record would indicate. Buffalo might have a whole lot to play for at this point, but you have to like your chances of them laying it all on the line in their final home game. Add in the fact that they can spoil a division rivals playoff hopes and that’s plenty of fuel to light the fire.

Those that have been following the Bills closely, know just how well this team has played at home. Buffalo 5-1 ATS in games played at Ralph Wilson Stadium and that includes outright wins over the Panthers and Ravens, along with a couple of close losses vs the Patriots (21-23) and Bengals (24-27 OT).

I’m not so sure oddsmakers aren’t telling you who to bet in this one. Miami comes in having won three straight and just won outright as an underdog at home against the Patriots, while the Bills are just 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Listing the Dolphins at less than a field goal is all but begging for money on Miami, which has to make you think the sharp play is on the home team. Buffalo is a solid 40-23 ATS in their last 63 games when they come in having failed to cover the spread in at least four of their last six games. BET THE BILLS +2.5 (Suggest buying .5 point to get 3)!

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