Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Orlando at Charlotte

The Bobcats are coming off a 115-111 win over Golden State on Monday and look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game as they host the Magic tonight. Charlotte is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6)

Game 701-702: Orlando at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.009; Charlotte 120.406
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 10 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6); Under

Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 119.965; Boston 124.680
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6; 195
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6); Over

Game 705-706: San Antonio at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.723; Milwaukee 111.792
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 17; 188
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-10); Under

Game 707-708: Detroit at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 120.260; New Orleans 119.824
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Philadelphia at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 107.818; Minnesota 123.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 15 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 12; 209 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-12); Under

Game 711-712: Chicago at New York (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.772; New York 116.479
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 713-714: Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.050; Memphis 122.392
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6); Over

Game 715-716: Utah at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 112.486; Sacramento 122.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 10; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 7; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-7); Under

Game 717-718: Dallas at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.260; Golden State 120.641
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 1 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 6; 209
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6); Over

NCAAB

Penn State vs. Duquesne
The Nittany Lions look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 non-conference games as they take on Duquesne tonight. Penn State is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Nittany Lions favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-6)

Game 719-720: Penn State vs. Duquesne (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 62.543; Duquesne 49.427
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 13
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-6)

Game 721-722: Princeton at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 59.096; Rutgers 53.396
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-3 1/2)

Game 723-724: WI-Milwaukee at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 51.000; Wisconsin 75.093
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 24
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-18 1/2)

Game 725-726: North Dakota State at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 55.341; Notre Dame 69.835
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 8
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-8)

Game 727-728: Buffalo at Canisius (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 56.476; Canisius 53.296
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1)

Game 729-730: Davidson vs. Niagara (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 58.103; Niagara 49.089
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 9
Vegas Line: Davidson by 5
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-5)

Game 733-734: North Dakota at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.086; Bowling Green 55.549
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-4)

Game 735-736: Denver at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 55.329; Colorado State 66.536
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 11
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-7 1/2)

Game 741-742: Bryant at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 54.694; Ohio State 77.825
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 23
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-18 1/2)

Game 743-744: New Mexico State at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.920; Arizona 74.398
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+14 1/2)

NHL

Los Angeles at Toronto

The Kings look to follow up last night's 6-0 win over Montreal and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Los Angeles is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140)

Game 51-52: Los Angeles at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.553; Toronto 9.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Under

Game 53-54: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.315; Chicago 11.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+180); Over

Game 55-56: Minnesota at Anaheim (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.735; Anaheim 12.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-145); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Jim Feist

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings
Pick: Utah Jazz

Your free pick for Wednesday, December 11th, 2013 2013, comes in the NBA as Jazz and the Kings meet in Sacramento. Home court hasn't meant much when these teams meet as the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Utah is off a big loss at home but the Jazz is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. Sacramento is an erratic team, 4-9 at home, weak on offense and defense. The Kings are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when they meet the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Rob Vinciletti

Mavericks vs. Warriors
Play: Under 209½

Totals appears a bit too high in this game and we have a totals system that has won 14 of 16 times the past 18 seasons. we want to play the under for non divisional rested home favorites with a total; that is 190 to 220 and comes in off a road favored ats loss while scoring 90 or more points, like Golden St, vs an opponent like Dallas off a spread loss as a road favorite. The Warriors have stayed under in 6 of 8 vs winning teams and 6 of 7 vs South West Division teams. Look for this one to go under tonight.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Ray Monohan

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors    
Play: Golden State Warriors -5½

The Warriors will be mighty happy to get started on an extended run at home where they play so much better - its almost night and day. Adding to their excitement is a chance to crank up the tempo against an older Mavericks team without great perimeter defensive options against their top scorers Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. Those two will combine for 50 or more on their way to a double digit victory. Also look at the over. There is nice value there, especially looking at historical trends for these two clubs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Carlos Salazar

Mavericks vs. Warriors
Play: Over 208½

There's going to be lots of scoring in this game tonight between Dallas and Golden St. Both teams are averaging 103 points per game and will be putting the ball up early and often in the shot clock. Bet the over with confidence tonight.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Rickie Robbins

Los Angeles Kings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs    
Play: Los Angeles Kings -139

Although Toronto has had two days of rest, there has been a lot of distraction in Leaf Nation regarding a questionable hit by Leaf's captain Dion Phaneuf in Sunday's tilt versus the Leafs. It was announced early on Tuesday that the captain received a two game suspension.

The Maple Leafs have already seen their fair share of struggles in the defensive end over the past couple of weeks, and losing their Captain/Top defenseman will be devastating. Toronto looks like a discombobulated team overall at the moment, and facing the Kings will be no easier than their last task against Boston (which they lost 5-2), as both opponents play a similar brand of hockey.

The Kings are coming into game two of a back to back, but they had a relatively easy game last night in Montreal. LA defeated the Canadiens 6-0 on Tuesday night, and were hardly tested , but still stood their ground strong, and will be carrying the same foundation that has allowed the team to win four straight games and not give up a goal in over 120 minutes. The West > East effect might be displaying itself at the moment.

Essentially, this is the battle of Structure VS Non Structure, and there isn't any reason to believe that Toronto will have an edge in any department in this one.

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EZWINNERS

New Mexico State +14.5

I like this spot for New Mexico State tonight as this is a "look ahead" spot for Arizona. The Wildcats are riding high with the programs first number on ranking since March of 2003. They over came a poor shooting game to knock off UNLV 63-58 on Saturday. Arizona has a huge test coming up on Saturday as they travel to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. New Mexico State comes into this game with a 7-4 record but have dropped three straight games including their last one at then #19 ranked Gonzaga 80-68. That being said this Aggies team is talented and was the pre-season pick by many to win the WAC. I like New Mexico State to keep this one within the number against an Arizona team that has a much bigger game on deck this weekend. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

DAVE COKIN

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
PLAY: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +6

If there’s an obvious spot on the Wednesday night NBA slate, it has to be the Thunder-Grizzlies game, right? Playoff revenge for the powerful Thunder, and they’re facing a struggling Memphis squad that is shorthanded and also burning up its backers money on a pretty regular basis.

I won’t pretend that things look rosy for the Grizzlies right now. The absence of Marc Gasol is significant, and I’m sure the Thunder would like to deliver a little message to their tormentors from last spring. But it’s also a fact that the guys who set the numbers are well aware of all this, and they’ve adjusted the line accordingly.

In the playoffs last spring, Memphis was favored by 5 and 5.5 in its two home games against Oklahoma City. Tonight, the Grizzlies are a six-point underdog. True enough, the Thunder were without Russell Westbrook in those games and the Grizzlies are missing at least one key element and maybe more tonight.

Nevertheless, I see this line as being overadjusted and it needs to also be pointed out that the Thunder are 0-2 this season playing the second of back to backs. That’s a miniscule sample to be sure, and Oklahoma City was okay in this scenario last season.

My tendency is to try and find a reason to play the side nobody wants in these crystal clear situations. In this instance, it’s the number and the belief that the Grizzlies will go as hard as they can tonight in a game they’re going to want as well. I don’t think Memphis will just roll over, and I expect a close game. Mark me down for the Grizzlies plus the points tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Clippers -6

Clippers head coach Doc Rivers will be making his first appearance as the opposing coach of the Celtics since he left Boston in the offseason. I believe this game means more to Rivers than it does the Celtics. Only six of the players who are currently suiting up for Boston played under Rivers last year. The Celtics didn't exactly step up their game last night in Brooklyn when they faced former teammates Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.

Three of the Celtics key players this year did play under Rivers last year in Avery Bradley, Jeff Green and Jordan Crawford. What I really like here is Rivers knows these players strengths and weaknesses and will have his new team ready to exploit those weaknesses.

Another key factor here is that we know the Clippers players are going to show up and lay it all on the line for their new head coach against his former team. When Los Angeles decides it's time to play they normally win and win convincingly against inferior teams. Los Angeles is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while the Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Timberwolves -12

This should be a very lopsided game in Minnesota's favor. The Philadelphia 76ers come into this game having dropped eight consecutive road games, and it seems likely they will be without point guard Michael Carter-Williams tonight. The Timberwolves will be hungry for a win since this is their only home game out of their next four contests. The rest profiles also favor the Timberwolves. This is just their fourth game in the month of December, while Philadelphia will be playing their sixth game during that span.

The 76ers are 13-24 ATS when facing a non-conference opponent. They have lost seven consecutive games against the spread. Minnesota has performed well against Atlantic division teams posting a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against bad teams that are winning less than 40% of their games on the season. Minnesota's offense has been hard to stop at home scoring 106 points per game, and they should win this game in a blowout against a 76ers team allowing 111.7 points per game on the road.

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Wunderdog

Buffalo vs. Canisius
Pick: Buffalo -3.5

This game creates somewhat of a regional rivalry as these upstate New York schools are not separated by a great distance. The Golden Griffins have a lot of work to do despite a cherry-picked 5-3 record, they lost by 14 to Metro State an inexcusable loss. The Bulls have started to play better after dropping a pair to start the season, and have taken each of their last four. Javon McCrea is an emerging star in Buffalo as he has averaged just shy of a double-double with 16 points per game and over 9 boards a contest. He will be the featured focal point here vs. Canisius who has shown weakness in the interior. The Bulls have rallied to the cause against a winning team where they stand at a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven when facing one. On the other hand, the Golden Griffins have failed to cover in any of their last four vs. a winning squad. Take Buffalo in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Bryan Power

Dallas vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State

The Warriors lost Monday night in Charlotte, 115-111.  But don't be surprised to see this team go on a little bit of a run now that five of their next six games played will be at home where they are 6-2 SU this season.  It's shocking to me that if the playoffs were to start today that Golden State wouldn't be in them!  That speaks to how strong the Western Conference is right now, but it also has a lot to do with the fact that 14 of the team's first 22 games have been played on the road.  Here at home, they are averaging 106 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of nearly eight points/game.

Dallas lost Monday in Sacramento, 112-97, which is a bad loss as the Mavs continue to struggle away from home.  They're just 4-7 SU on the road this season and while they previously had won in New Orleans and Portland, those victories came by a combined five points.  This is now their fourth road game in seven days.   Making the loss to Sacramento even more embarrassing is the fact the Kings were short-handed because of the Rudy Gay trade.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Brandon Shively

North Dakota St vs. Notre Dame    
Play: Over 148½

I have been high on this North Dakota State since the beginning of the season. They return all 5 starters from last year's 24-10 team, and all 5 starters can score. They are shooting 50% from the floor as a team and a solid 76% from the foul line. Taylor Braun is a scorer that will lead the team in scoring almost every night. The guy is a solid 41% 3 point shooter and has almost a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. I like this North Dakota State team to be able to run with Notre Dame tonight and put up 77-82 points. They have a sharpshooter coming off the bench in Mike Felt who can stroke it from downtown and get some garbage 3's down the stretch if needed be. While I feel the Bisons will be competitive tonight, they still don't play defense as opponents are shooting 47% from the floor against them on the year, including 33% from behind the arch. That will fit in well with a Notre Dame that is shooting a lights-out, 41% from behind the arch. Point Guard Eric Atkins is senior who has a 5:1 assist to turnover ratio on the season. This guy can dish the rock and Notre Dame has a diaper dandy in Demetrius Jackson that is backing up Atkins. All 5 Notre Dame starters can score. What I like is their also is their 'big's' can rebound, but more importantly can shoot free throws. In a game that will have a fast pace and more than likely see a a lot of fouls down the stretch, free throw shooting is crucial. Don't be surprised if North Dakota State has a lead going into halftime in this game. I expect them to put up around 40 first half points. Notre Dame has too many shooters on the perimeter and they will more than likely pull away at the end. Look for a final score in the 91-82 range tonight. Play this game OVER the Total.

Trends:

OVER is 7-0 in North Dakota State's last 7 overall.
OVER is 6-0 in North Dakota State's last 6 road games.
OVER is 5-1 in North Dakota State's last 6 Wednesday games.
OVER is 7-1 in Notre Dame's last 8 games following a SU win.
OVER is 8-3 in Notre Dame's last 11 games overall.
Play on: North Dakota State/ Notre Dame OVER the TOTAL


Chicago vs New York
Play: Under 183½

The Bulls come into this game banged up. Of course Derrick Rose is gone for the season, but the loss of Jimmy Butler has been huge also. Deng has been asked to carry the load now and he did not play last night and is listed as questionable for this game, along with Noah. The perimeter shooting is lacking where they are only shooting 30% from the 3 point line on the road and the bench is practically non-existent chipping in with only 22 ppg. These two teams met earlier this year and we saw the Bulls come away with a 82-81 win as the 163 total points went UNDER the posted total of 188 easily. Rose and Butler accounted for 35% of those points. With them out tonight, I do not think that the Bulls will score over 84-86 points. For the Knicks, point guard Raymond Felton is expected to miss this game and with both teams playing on a back-to-back, I do not see either team pushing the pace tonight. Also consider that both teams are banged up and scoring will be hard to come by, especially in the 4th quarter in a tight game. Look for both defenses to step up the intensity and this game to finish in the 174-177 point range.

Trends:

UNDER is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
UNDER is 14-6-1 in Knicks last 21 vs. NBA Central.
UNDER is 16-6 in Bulls last 22 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Orlando +6 over CHARLOTTE

This is really a case of buying low and selling high. The Bobcats have won two in a row and they’re now just a game under .500. One of those two wins came against the Warriors but we can assure you that the Warriors pulled a no-show in the first half. They were brutal. We pointed out earlier this week the Bobcats have played the second easiest schedule in the Association. Despite that, this Charlotte team ranks last or near last in every offensive category. This is a poor shooting team spotting points with the worst points per possession ranking in the NBA. The ‘Cats are also without Michael-Kidd Gilchrist for 4-6 weeks because of a broken hand.

Orlando’s stock seemed to hit rock bottom when they were buried last week by 39 points by the New York Knicks. The Magic subsequently lost two more games after that and their losing streak has now hit six games. Orlando has lost 10 of its last 12 but had much more life in them in their last two against Houston and Memphis and this is a winnable game. The Magic conclude a six-game trip here and it wouldn’t feel so good returning home winless. The Magic figure to leave nothing on the table here in an attempt to avoid that. Remember, the Magic looked really good at the start of the season but a difficult schedule has contributed to their rough stretch. That said, Arron Afflalo is playing great. Afflalo dropped a career-high 43 points in a double-overtime loss to the Sixers and is averaging a career-best 22.1 points while shooting 44.3 percent from three-point range. He's also capable of defending shooting guards and small forwards. In Memphis on Sunday, the Magic were an 8½-point pooch. Because their stock is so low, they are now just 2½-points less in Charlotte and that allows us a great opportunity to buy an inflated number.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles -½ +122 over TORONTO

Regulation only. There are elite teams in this league like the Sharks, Blackhawks, Blues and to a lesser degree the Bruins and Penguins that all are extremely strong in certain areas but that all have some flaws as well. The Los Angeles Kings are also an elite team but unlike the others, you would be hard-pressed to find a single flaw on them. The Kings have elite talent up front with enough point producers and goal scorers to go all the way. Defensively, they are near impossible to play against and sustain pressure in their end for prolonged periods of time. They are also a relentless fore-checking group that seldom lets up. At home, the Kings are 10-4-2 and on the road they are 10-3-2. The Kings have also won four in a row while outscoring that group 15-4. The Kings are 11-1-4 in their most recent 16 games. They have outscored their foes 41-20 and have not allowed a single first-period goal in that span or more than two goals in any of those games. Prior to last night they had not won in Montreal since 1999. Last night the Kings looked like a herd of 5-year-olds had been let loose with felt markers and they buried the hottest team in the NHL, 6-0.

Since 2008, the Kings have played in Toronto one time, meaning many of their players have never played here and certainly not since they’ve been elite. Toronto is hockey’s hotbed and these players have been looking forward to this trip to Montreal and Toronto since the schedule was released. There is no chance of the Kings being flat tonight. Ben Scrivens was never given a chance in Toronto under Ron Wilson and it’s no coincidence that he sat out last night to play in this one. If the Kings feel a debt to Scrivens for the way he’s played since Quick was injured (Scrivens leads the NHL with a .945 save percentage), they will pay it off here because they know how badly Scrivens wants this one. The Los Angeles Kings are a powerhouse.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have more wins than half the teams in the East but come playoff time, check near the bottom because that’s where Toronto will be. Over their last four games, the Leafs have been outshot 180-109. The Leafs have won two of their past eight games and in those two victories they were outshot 100-55 by Dallas and Ottawa. Realistically, Toronto should be on an eight-game losing streak. Recently, the Leafs have lost twice to the Sabres and once to the Jackets by a score of 6-0. There are 411 players in the NHL that get regular ice time. From numbers 387 to 411, the Leafs have seven forwards ranked in that bottom range as having the most time spent in their own zone. In other words, 40% of the forwards, and that includes Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk, are huge defensive liabilities that spend most of their ice time in their own end. That doesn’t include Mason Raymond, who is ranked 371 on that list. Outside of goaltending, the Leafs are the NHL’s worst team and that’s not an opinion. This is equivalent to the Denver Broncos playing a game they want against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. It’s not fair.

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LT Profits

Oklahoma City vs Memphis
Pick: Under 192

The Oklahoma City Thunder seek revenge facing the Memphis Grizzlies for the first time since losing to them in the NBA Playoffs while Russell Westbrook was out. The Thunder may get that revenge with Westbrook, but we expect a relatively low scoring game. The Grizzlies have only reached 100 points twice in the last nine games and they are ranked 25th in the NBA in scoring at 93.2 points per game but sixth in points against at 96.0. Part of the reason is the Memphis pace, as it ranks second to last in tempo rating. Look for the Grizzlies to slow the pace at every opportunity as they do not want to get in a track meet with Durant & Co. Also, even the Thunder have allowed less than 100 points in four of their last five games. The ‘under’ is 16-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 21 games vs. the Southwest Division.


Canisius vs Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -1.5

The Buffalo Bulls have won four straight games since an 0-2 start, keyed by a defense holding opponents to a 47.6 percent effective field goal percentage and very good offensive rebounding more than compensating for just a 46.2 eFG% on offense. The Bulls have an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.1 percent, well above the national average of 31.9 percent, and they should dominate in that department tonight. That is because the Canisius Golden Griffiths have done a terrible job of keep opponents off of the glass, ranking 341st out of 351 Division I teams in defensive rebounding percentage. Canisius comes off of two conference wins inside the weak MAAC, and the last time the Griffiths played out of conference they were embarrassed by 14 points 83-69 by a Division II school in Metro State on a neutral court! Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams with winning records.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

River City Sharps

Ohio St -18.5

We think this is going to be a breakout game for Ohio State as they continue to struggle in putting 40 minutes together. Ohio State has been really good defensively, allowing an average of 54.5 ppg, which is third nationally. They are also holding opponents to 37.1% from the field and 22.0% from 3-point range. The Buckeyes are shooting 58.1% in the past three games while averaging 83 ppg, compared to 69.6 ppg in the first five games. Bryant won't be taken lightly by the Buckeyes and Matta has been heard saying that he needs his squad to give him a solid 40 minutes. That happens tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Doug Upstone

Princeton vs. Rutgers    
Play: Princeton -3

On Wednesday, Play Against home teams as an underdog or pick like Rutgers, off an upset loss as a home favorite, against opponent (Princeton) off a home win by 10 points or more. The thought process here is if a team fails to win as home favorite and is placed in the underdog role against a road favorite, they could be in trouble. In the past five years this college hoops systems is a rock solid 49-21.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Jack Jones

Oklahoma City Thunder -6

It's payback time for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They will be hungry for revenge against a Memphis Grizzlies team that knocked them out of the playoffs in five games this past spring, but the difference this time is that they will be the healthier team.

I like their chances at getting revenge with Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. Westbrook missed the entire Memphis series in May, but he's back and better than ever this season. He has helped lead the Thunder to 11 wins in their last 12 games overall with their only loss coming at Portland. That includes victories over the Clippers, Spurs, Warriors and Pacers along the way.

Memphis is the team that has been decimated by injuries this year. It remains without Marc Gasol (knee) and Quincy Pondexter (foot). Ed Davis (ankle) is questionable to play tonight, while defensive stopper Tony Allen (hip) is doubtful. Not having Allen would be huge because he would be the one to match up with Kevin Durant.

Oklahoma City is 39-21 ATS in its last 60 games after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games coming in. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days rest. Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 home games. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Jeff Alexander

New Mexico State +15

Arizona is being overvalued because of its No. 1 ranking. Plus, this is a look-ahead spot for the Wildcats who have a tough game on deck at Michigan. Playing against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are undefeated are have won at least eight in a row has resulted in a 62-29 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Zona is also on a 2-10 ATS slide in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins, and the Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Bet New Mexico State.

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