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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 12

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 12

SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) at DENVER (11 - 2) - 12/12/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver   
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 1-5-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego at Denver
San Diego: 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Denver: 11-2 ATS as a home favorite

San Diego @ Denver

The Chargers are 99-74 ATS on the road over the years, 6-3 ATS in December, 6-1 ATS as an underdog, 6-0 ATS in their final road game of the season, 7-1 ATS when playing with revenge after a straight up win and Charger QB Rivers is a solid 20-13 ATS in his career in the month of December. The Broncos are 19-10 ATS as favorites, 10-4 ATSA versus divisional opponents, 13-3 ATS as home favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 8-2 ATS in December, 13-4 ATS versus losing teams, 7-1 ATS as a double digit favorite and 4-1 ATS in the second of back to back home games. However, Denver is also 2-8 ATS versus opponents with revenge after scoring 35 points or more and just 3-12-1 ATS as a divisional home favorite of lass than 17 points after a non-divisional game. Note San Diego is 10-3-1 ATS in this series including 6-0 ATS in Denver and the road team is 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 12

NFL Week 15

Chargers (6-7) @ Broncos (11-2) —
Denver is 6-1 as home favorite this year; only non-cover was as 26-point favorite vs Jags (won 35-19); Broncos outscored opponents 176-66 in second half at Mile High, average of 25-9- they won last four games with Chargers, by 3-11-7-8 points, but San Diego won three of last four visits here (lost 30-23 LY). Broncos (-7) won 28-20 at Qualcomm in Week 10, despite losing field position by 12 yards and Bolts outrushing them 131-84; game was 21-6 at half and Denver hung on at end, after Manning tweaked his ankle. Chargers are 3-4 SU on road, 2-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 3-10-6-4 points- they’re 1-3-1 vs spread this season in game following a win. Bolts’ 27-17 loss at Oakland in Week 5 is their only loss this year by more than eight points. Broncos’ home wins this season are by 22-16-32-16-24-10-23 points- this is their last home game until the playoffs. In its last two games; they’ve run ball for 188.7 ypg in last three games. Denver had 11 TDs, two 3/outs on 21 drives. AFC West home teams are 5-2 vs spread in divisional games, 3-1 when favored. 11 of 13 Denver games went over total.

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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Thursday Night Football is generally awful but this AFC West War between Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers should be a good one. Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason, the Bolts are fighting for playoff positioning. Broncos are being favored for the 25th time since Manning took over and are spotting Bolts 10.0 to 11.0 points depending on locale. Broncos 17-7-1 ATS in a favorite roll with Peyton taking snaps including 6-2-1 ATS vs a division opponent, 10-4-1 ATS playing at Sports Authority Field at Mile High plenty of reason to lean Broncos' way. But, caution is in order. Teams favored on Thursday are just 7-9 ATS, double digit chalks are 11-15-1 ATS on the year. Have the Double Digit chalk wear an AFC uniform they fall to 3-7-1 ATS. One final betting nugget. San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven in Denver.

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Thursday Night Football Betting: Chargers at Broncos

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 56)

The Denver Broncos can wrap up a perfect home record - and move a step closer to ensuring they stay there throughout the playoffs - with a win over the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. Denver has clinched a playoff spot and has a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West and over New England for the AFC's top seed. "I guess you have some security but our job is not finished," receiver Eric Decker told the team's website. "Winning this division is No. 1, and winning this conference is No. 2."

While the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, their margin of error for home-field advantage is ultra thin by virtue of losing to the Patriots in overtime last month. The Chargers are backed much farther into the corner, sitting one game behind Miami and Baltimore in the race for the last playoff spot. To a man, the Chargers called their 37-14 drubbing of the New York Giants on Sunday their most complete game of the season, and they'll likely need to duplicate it to upset the Broncos in Denver.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 10.5-point home faves. The total opened at 55 and is up to 56.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (6-7): San Diego has a glimmer of hope after winning two of his last three but its remaining schedule includes not only the trip to Denver but also a visit from the Chiefs in the season finale. Quarterback Philip Rivers has enjoyed a resurgent season, completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with 26 TDs and nine interceptions. The defense has given up more than 400 total yards four times and surrendered 397 in a 28-20 home loss to Denver in Week 10, but the Chargers have forced 12 turnovers in their past eight games after just two takeaways in their first five contests.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (11-2): Denver is 7-0 at home, where it has won by an average of 20.4 points after last week's 51-28 triumph over Tennessee. Quarterback Peyton Manning put to rest any concerns about his ability to perform in cold weather, going 39-of-59 for 397 yards and four touchdowns against the Titans with the temperature well below freezing. Manning has a bevy of weapons at his disposal, as the Broncos are the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10 or more touchdowns - Knowshon Moreno (12), Julius Thomas (11), Demaryius Thomas (11) and Wes Welker (10).


* Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in their last nine meetings in Denver.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Chargers last eight vs. AFC.


1. Manning has recorded 11 games with 300 or more passing yards this season, tying Tom Brady for the second-most in NFL history.

2. Chargers WR Keenan Allen has 61 receptions - a franchise record for a rookie - for 902 yards and five TDs.

3. The Broncos need to score 75 points in their last three games to break the NFL record of 589 set by the 2007 Patriots. They average 39.6.

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Chargers at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers

The Broncos play their final regular season game at Sports Authority Field on Thursday, but it definitely won't be the last home contest for Denver. The Chargers are in desperation mode at 6-7, entering Week 15 one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. San Diego needs a win in the worst way, but can it duplicate a strong home effort from this past Sunday?

The Lightning Bolts struck the Giants early and often in a 37-14 rout as three-point favorites in Week 14. San Diego jumped to a commanding 24-0 halftime lead thanks to three touchdown passes from Philip Rivers, while the Chargers' defense intercepted Eli Manning twice in the victory. The Chargers evened their home mark at 3-3, as Mike McCoy's team rebounded from a defeat to the Bengals one week earlier in a 17-10 setback.
Denver continued its home domination, in spite of falling behind Tennessee, 21-10 in the second quarter. The Broncos blitzed the Titans, 31-7 in the second half to record a 51-28 rout and easily cash as 13-point favorites. Peyton Manning attempted 59 passes, but found a way to throw four more touchdowns to increase his season total to 45, while hitting four different receivers for scores. Denver improved to 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home, as the Broncos went over the 40-point mark for the first time since a Week 8 blowout of Washington.

The last time the Broncos and Chargers faced off came in Week 10 at Qualcomm Stadium, as Denver came out with a 28-20 road triumph. The Broncos barely covered the seven-point number, in spite of building a 28-6 lead in the third quarter. Manning burned the Chargers' for four touchdowns, including a career-best three scores by wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Denver has beaten San Diego four straight times, including the last three since the arrival of Manning with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season.

The Chargers have been listed as a three-point underdog or more three times on the highway this season, resulting in a 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record. San Diego won outright as 7½-point 'dogs at Philadelphia in Week 2, while pulling off a solid divisional triumph at Kansas City in Week 12 in a 41-38 shootout victory. The lone straight-up defeat came in Week 3 at Tennessee, as the Chargers pushed as three-point underdogs in a 20-17 setback as the Titans scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Since the start of last season, the Broncos have put together a stellar 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS record at Sports Authority Field with the two losses coming to Houston last September and the heartbreaking defeat to Baltimore in the second round of the 2012 playoffs. The Broncos continue to be a machine to the 'over' at home, cashing in six of seven contests in Colorado this season.

Denver wide receiver Wes Welker has been ruled out of Thursday's matchup after suffering a concussion in the win over Tennessee, his second concussion of the season. Welker has scored just two touchdowns in the last seven games after finding the end zone eight times in the first six contests. handicapper Antony Dinero gives San Diego a shot here on the road, "The Chargers have no room for error if they want to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff race, so expect a desperate football team to show up for this AFC West clash. Without Welker, Manning has one less option, but odds are good he'll be able to do plenty of damage against a porous defense. Fortunately, Rivers is capable of winning a shootout, and this may be the week where second-string tight end LaDarius Green re-emerges as a game-breaker. However it goes, San Diego has to do whatever it takes, even if that means giving Ryan Mathews a season-high in carries for the second week in a row."

Denver is listed as a 10½-point favorite on Thursday, as the Broncos have cashed three of four times this season when laying double-digits. The total sits between 56 and 57 depending on where you shop, as the first meeting finished 'under' 56. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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AFC West showdown

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-7) at DENVER BRONCOS (11-2) Line & Total: Denver -10.5 & 58
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -11 & 55.5

The Chargers try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a visit to the Broncos on Thursday night and facing a quarterback with the last name of Manning for the second straight week.

San Diego is coming off its largest win of the year, a 37-14 drubbing of Eli Manning's Giants, while Denver crushed the Titans 51-28, behind four touchdown passes from Peyton Manning, who now has 45 TD this year. Since joining the Broncos, Manning is 3-0 (2-1 ATS) versus the Chargers, throwing for 909 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT. This includes his 330 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in a 28-20 win in San Diego on Nov. 10. But Chargers QB Philip Rivers is also having a career year (26 TD, 9 INT), which has put his team in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 6-7, just one game behind Baltimore for the sixth playoff spot. Rivers' 244 passing YPG, 25 TD and 12 INT as a starter in this series with the Broncos is a big reason why his team is 9-6 SU (9-5-1 ATS) in the past 15 meetings. Denver is 13-3 ATS (81%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since Manning joined the team, but San Diego is 6-3 ATS (67%) in the final four weeks of the regular season since 2011. While the Chargers don't have any major injuries to cope with, the Broncos will likely be without WR Wes Welker (concussion), and have four others who are questionable in CB Champ Bailey (foot), OT Orlando Franklin (concussion), DE Derek Wolfe (illness) and WR/KR Trindon Holliday (shoulder).

The Chargers are a pedestrian 3-4 SU (3-3-1 ATS) on the road this year, but their offense has not been the issue with 24.6 PPG on 430 total YPG away from home. But the defense has allowed 24.4 PPG on 408 total YPG to host teams, while forcing just five turnovers in these seven contests. San Diego currently ranks fourth in the league in total offense (401 YPG) and passing offense (289 YPG), thanks to the second-highest time of possession (32:49). This has occurred because of a stellar third-down conversion rate of 48%, which ranks second in the NFL. But the Chargers are scoring only 24.3 PPG (T-11th in NFL) because of a poor red-zone offense (51% touchdown rate, 23rd in league). QB Philip Rivers has completed 70.3% of his passes this season for 3,882 yards (8.4 YPA), which includes a 72.3% completion rate and 8.8 YPA on the road. With the disruptive Broncos defense allowing just 55.8% completions to visiting quarterbacks this year, Rivers' accuracy will be key to his team sustaining drives and keeping Denver's offense on the sidelines. Rivers has plenty of weapons in the passing game with his top three targets all recording more than 60 receptions in WR Keenan Allen (902 rec. yards, 5 TD), TE Antonio Gates (776 rec. yards, 3 TD) and RB Danny Woodhead (534 rec. yards, 6 TD).

San Diego's ground game hasn't been great this season (112 YPG, 20th in NFL; 3.9 YPC, 23rd in league), but it has picked up over the past five games with 125 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC. Top RB Ryan Mathews (885 rush yards, 5 TD) has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his past eight games, including 103 yards in last week's win. Mathews had 59 yards on 14 carries (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown in the Week 10 loss to Denver. Defensively, San Diego has been horrible in all aspects, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per passing attempt, both of which rank 31st in the 32-team league. This has led to 383 total YPG allowed (28th in NFL) despite being on the field for just 27:37 (2nd-fewest in league). The team has also been subpar in both the red zone (61%, 25th in NFL) and on third downs (40%, 22nd in league), but has allowed just 22.4 PPG (T-11th in NFL). Another positive sign is that San Diego has generated seven takeaways over the past three games, and will need to win the turnover battle like in Week 10 to hang in with the best team in the AFC.

Denver's offense has been unbelievable this year, leading the NFL in points (39.6 PPG), yards (466 YPG), first downs (27.9 per game), third-down conversions (48%) and red-zone efficiency (79% touchdown rate). QB Peyton Manning has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but one game this year, piling up 800 yards and 9 TD passes in his past two contests. Although WR Wes Welker (778 rec. yards, 10 TD) is doubtful to play on Thursday, Manning still has plenty of options when he drops back. WR Demaryius Thomas (1,149 rec. yards, 11 TD) was the main man against the Chargers on Nov. 10 with 108 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while TE Julius Thomas (625 rec. yards, 11 TD) caught just three passes in the Week 10 meeting, but one of those was a 74-yard touchdown reception. WR Eric Decker (1,088 rec. yards, 8 TD) has been especially good over the past two games with a whopping 16 catches for 291 yards and 5 TD.

But the Broncos are not just a one-dimensional passing offense, as their ground game averages 124 YPG (12th in NFL) including 566 rushing yards (189 YPG) over the past three games. Top RB Knowshon Moreno (920 rush yards, 12 total TD) rushed for 65 yards (4.3 YPC) and gained another 49 yards through the air on eight receptions in the Week 10 win over San Diego. The offense has needed to carry this team, as Denver's defense has been subpar, ranking 25th in the league in both scoring defense (26.5 PPG) and total defense (374 YPG). The unit has been decent on third downs (37%, 14th in NFL), but has been porous in the red zone (62% touchdown rate, T-27th in league). Denver tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks last year, but has just 34 sacks this season (15th in NFL). Although the unit failed to force a turnover versus San Diego in Week 10, it has generated seven takeaways in the four games since.

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